G1 Golden Rose Stakes Day - 23.09.2017

It's disappointing to see the $150K G3 Colin Stephen Quality - a race with a history that stretches back to 1870 - will have a field of just five runners.

On the bright side we have the $1M G1 Golden Rose Stakes and let's not forget the time honoured Listed Kalgoorlie Cup on Sunday.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Damian Lane bounced back from a fall in the fifth at Flemington last Saturday to win the next two races on the card. He had another winner at Cranbourne on Wednesday and he ventured to Pakenham yesterday for just the one ride - and he won again.

He's a busy boy at Caulfield tomorrow but according to early markets his best chances of success are Leather'n'lace (Race 1 No. 9), So Si Bon (Race 5 No. 2), Brave Smash (Race 6 No. 3) and Petition (Race 9 No. 11).

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

The Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Menari will start a dominant favourite here on the back of consecutive victories that were both quite impressive. His dry track form is near faultless and although he's never won beyond 1200m I don't think it'll be a problem. He's drawn awkwardly but he was last start too and Josh Parr (who is riding really well) got him into a lovely spot without much effort. He's the one to beat for mine but I don't want to be taking $2 so I'm thinking trifecta.

Which means I've got to find some others. The best run behind Menari was Shogun Sun given they skipped home the final 600m in 33.71 that day. He couldn't win from where he was but he acquitted himself well and he looks like the 1400m will be a big tick. Assimilate was beaten narrowly last start when conceding weight and a start to the winner on a day where the track was fast, they were running time and the leaders were favoured. Prior to that he was unbeaten. His stablemate Pariah has drawn alongside Menari and will follow him everywhere he goes. He's never missed a top two finish on a dry track and third run in last prep he was only just collared late by Catchy (below) in a G1 Blue Diamond.

It's hard to get a line through Merchant Navy because he comes off the Victorian form but he's unbeaten in four starts. He's drawn well this week and could be a lot closer in the run. His first-up win at Caulfield where he came from last with a big weight was impressive. There are others too but it would cost too much to throw them all in. Gold Standard hasn't done a lot wrong. Ditto the fillies Formality and Champagne Cuddles. Dracarys and Chauffeur are talented. Trapeze Artist isn't the worst. The Mission is a G1 winner. Perast was third to Menari and Pariah last start. Don't let me talk you out of backing anything. Just look at my recent record FFS.

Locky's Selections

2x3x7x10x11 BOXED TRIFECTA

The Golden Pendant (Group 2, 1400m, set weights plus penalties 3-y-o and up fillies and mares)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Euro Angel and Lubiton are early scratchings ***

Not much between Omei Sword, Daysee Doom and Bonny O'Reilly in the betting. In racebook order Omei Sword has a lovely barrier, a big race trainer and a big race jockey. That's a good combo. On this day last year she was held up badly and charged late to beat all bar Astern (below) in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes. Sure she has been disappointing when well tried in her two runs back this campaign but her sectionals were very good in races where the backmarkers just never got into the contest.

Daysee Doom doesn't do a lot wrong. She's never finished worse than fifth in a 12 start career that's yielded six wins and four placings. Andrew Adkins has to overcome the wide gate but he's ridden her in all but two of her starts and they stick with the apprentice here even though he can't claim. He knows her well. Two from two at 1400m. I tipped Bonny O'Reilly last start so if I don't tip her this time she will win. (It's how this blog works people. I'm not tipping her, so LOAD UP.) I've just got a notion she's a more effective horse at 1200m. Still she's won four from five at Rosehill and maps beautifully from barrier three.

Sweet Redemption is another who should get a glorious run. I can't really see anyone who is going to take her on so she probably lobs in front and could get a cushy run. She has been the subject of some early bets ($13 into $10). Dixie Blossoms has work to do early from the draw as does Danish Twist but they're both capable enough on their day. I could possibly entertain Denmagic in wider exotics.

Locky's Selections

3. Sweet Redemption EACH-WAY

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a very windy, cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

Naturalism Stakes (Group 3, 2000m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

As I said previously anything I tip on this blog that doesn't win (which is most of them, let's face it) usually comes out and wins at their next start. So Amelie's Star is a moral certainty here. Drawn out rather than in is a good thing because she can avoid all the traffic she ran into last start. Weir + Lane = Tick. But this is a wide open race and not one I'm entirely sure I'm keen to play in.

Abbey Marie looked like she's getting back to somewhere near peak form last start when a close-up second to the very talented Bonneval (below) in the G2 Feehan Stakes. She is well placed here at 55.5kg or just 1.5kg over the minimum given she is a winner of a G1 Australasian Oaks.

Stampede doesn't run too many bad races. Six wins from just the 10 starts with three second placings thrown in for good measure. He carried 59kg first-up at a mile (not his best trip) and he conceded the second horse 5kg and absolutely crushed them. Gallante ran second in this race last year to Jameka when conceding her 3kg. He was first-up that day too but he's zero from nine on firm tracks. 

Big Duke is up to 2000m now after two runs at the mile. Last start at Moonee Valley he attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. Tally won the Listed Mornington Cup third-up last prep. Just one win in six Caulfield starts but it was a G2 Autumn Classic. I thought Harlem was great first-up coming from well back in a race where the winner led and controlled the race from the front. Samovare is a lightly raced 4-y-o mare who rises sharply in class but she is building an impressive record. She has plenty of upside. Another former WA galloper now with Hayes & Dabernig. Wary. Harlow Gold wouldn't be a total shock. Articus could improve but I couldn't have him on his last run.

Locky's Selections

15. Samovare EACH-WAY (without any real confidence)

OTHER BETS

Aloisia (Caulfield Race 1 No. 4) was desperately unlucky when a narrow second (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins at Doomben. The start before that she was coming off a nine week break when she won at Flemington over this trip. This spell has been a bit longer but she'll have residual fitness from that Winter campaign and she looks like she'll get a lovely smother from the gate.

P.S. Why in the hell is this race called the Pinchapoo Plate? What's next? The Snap One Off Stakes?

So Si Bon (Caulfield Race 5 No. 2) was tipped here two weeks ago and didn't win. Therefore he will win at his next start. Trust me, it happens all the time. Plus the step up to 1400m appeals to me. Two starts back he almost beat Voodoo Lad here. I like the addition of jockey Damian Lane too. I've been Willowed quite enough lately thank you very much.

willowed

[wil-ohd]

verb

1. to back a well tried horse only to watch it get absolutely slaughtered by Craig Williams

Dawn Wall (Rosehill Race 5 No. 9) was so close first-up and if you reverse the runs I think she beats Washington Heights. She ran her final 600m in 33.48 so I just hope that hasn't knocked her around and left her vulnerable second-up. Chris Waller has this mare on an Epsom/Caulfield Cup path so he obviously thinks she's above average. 

Good punting!

G1 George Main Stakes and G1 Makybe Diva Stakes Day - 16.09.2017

Two very short priced favourites in the features tomorrow but a string of good support races so I'm going to mix it up a bit this weekend.

Rather than an in depth look at any race in particular we'll have a quick look at a few.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Blake Shinn rode a double at Canterbury on Wednesday and a city winner last Saturday.

He has a bunch of rides at Randwick tomorrow but the pick of them look to be Tom Melbourne (Race 4 No. 3), English (Race 7 No. 5) and Chocante (Race 8 No. 3).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Shorts (Group 2, 1100m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

A small but select field here. I'm tipping Redzel simply because he is up and running whereas everyone else bar Nieta is first-up and apart from Ball Of Muscle I really don't see any other speed here. If he controls the race from the front as he did last start he'll be hard to run down. His last second-up run he was just pipped by stablemate Russian Revolution (below) in the G1 Galaxy when conceding that colt 3.5kg. Since that day Redzel is unbeaten.

I know Chautauqua has great stats at the track and the trip but he is a 7-y-o now so I think he'll need the run and will probably be better at 1200m. English is three from four fresh and is a four-time winner here but I just feel she's going to be giving them too much start in a race devoid of tempo. Fell Swoop is a knockout hope because he can sit on pace and track the leader/s and his last two starts here he's been placed in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes.

Locky's Selections

2. Redzel WIN

Tea Rose Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Tulip maps very well here and probably would have won first-up if the Moonee Valley straight was 175m long instead of 173m. She gave the winner 2.5kg that day and I'm just looking to some fresh form. 

The reason I'm doing that is that there hasn't been a lot between the likes of Champagne Cuddles, Alizee and I Am Excited lately and they've been sit-and-sprint affairs so the 1400m has to be a query. My best roughie is Cellargirl. Queensland trainer Kelly Schweida has only been to Randwick once since the beginning of the new season - for one winner. Pandemonium and Acqume for trifectas and first fours.

Locky's Selections

1. Tulip WIN

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a high chance of morning showers. ***

Bobbie Lewis Quality (Group 2, 1200m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

So Si Bon looks to have returned in fantastic order this prep and it seems they are going to stick to the shorter trips with him this time in. All three of his straight track runs at Flemington were full of merit and he just missed Voodoo Lad last start and meets him 2kg better off here.

Still Voodoo Lad and Redkirk Warrior due look well placed at the weights and both are proven Flemington performers. Attention is one at odds that could be thrown into wider exotics. Team Snowden could train a rocking horse to win at the moment and Kerrin McEvoy is riding better than anyone in the country. Four starts back (below) he was less than a length off Black Heart Bart in a G1 Futurity Stakes. The Kiwi Savile Row has been trialling well.

Locky's Selections

9. So Si Bon EACH-WAY

The Let's Elope (Group 2, 1400m, set weights plus penalties 4-y-o and up fillies and mares)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Ana Royale is an early scratching ***

Schism is drawn well and is a four-time winner at 1400m. Two of those victories came here at Flemington from just three attempts and eight wins from 18 starts is an impressive strike rate. She put together three wins on end before being well beaten by Vega Magic and Brave Smash in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes but so was everyone else.

Obviously she has to turn the tables on the likes of Oregon's Day and Swampland but she gets a 3-4kg weight swing here from that pair compared to their last start meeting. I am A Star is the class runner here and has been well supported. This is much easier than a G1 Memsie Stakes. Jennifer Lyn did enough first-up and races well here at Headquarters (2:1-1-0) and at the trip (4:3-0-0) and if the emergency Pure Pride gets a run she's certainly not the worst longshot I've ever seen. She wasn't far off I Am A Star (below) in the G1 Myer Classic. Smart As You Think is suited back to fillies and mares grade and her fresh run was solid. One for wider exotics.

Locky's Selections

10. Schism EACH-WAY

OTHER BETS

Snitzson (Flemington Race 3 No. 6) flew late last start and his splits for the final furlong were some of the best of the day. The Hayes / Dabernig yard is flying and Mark Zahra is also in pretty good nick and he'll lob in a lovely spot from the good draw. He has won previously at the track and trip and let's not forget he did finish third (below) to Hey Doc in the G1 Australian Guineas here at Flemington six months ago. Each-way.

Tom Melbourne (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) should be renamed Tom Sydney according to prominent tipster Ron Dufficy and it's hard to argue with that looking at his form since coming to the Waller stable. Tom Melbourne that is, not Ron Dufficy. But I digress. The horse had no luck first-up when he ran into more dead-ends than Shaggy and Scooby-Doo and last start he held off bar Happy Clapper in the G2 Tramway Stakes. Maps well.

Amelie's Star (Flemington Race 9 No. 3) won the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes third-up last prep at a mile and that was the first and only time she's been ridden by Damian Lane. When he combines with Darren Weir - beware! At her next start this mare was only a length and a half off Sense Of Occasion in a G1 Doomben Cup. She can cut the corners from barrier one but she'll need luck.

Good punting!

G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day - 09.09.2017

No Winx this weekend so somewhat of an anticlimax but we've still got nine Black Type races spread across three states to keep us entertained.

I'll look in depth at the big race in Melbourne but there are a host of good races in Sydney too but sadly I can't preview them all.

Who's Hot? 

Surely it has to be Jockey Kerrin McEvoy. Five winners at Randwick last weekend then trebles at Newcastle on Tuesday and Gosford yesterday. In the last six days he's had 11 winners and seven placegetters from only 25 rides. (Win 44% / Place 72%).

He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but the pick of his rides look to be Trapeze Artist (Race 4 No. 2), Egg Tart (Race 5 No. 6) and Kementari (Race 7 No. 10).

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Tavago is an early scratching ***

It's interesting to note that this field boasts ten runs at Moonee Valley between them without a single placing.

He's Our Rokkii has won his last two second-up runs in Melbourne. He finished fourth in the G2 Lawrence Stakes last start (below) and he wasn't far off Black Heart Bart at the finish and that horse ran very well in the G1 Memsie Stakes last weekend. Three wins and two seconds at the mile and he's drawn the rails. A solid favourite in early markets.

Star Exhibit was good (above) in the same race given it was a slowly run race and not many horses made ground on the day. He finished alongside Amelie's Star who ran third in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes and he beat home Gailo Chop who subsequently won the Listed Penny Edition Stakes in Adelaide last weekend. 

Abbey Marie finished ahead of the three aforementioned runners (above) last start so I have no idea why she is $13 and Star Exhibit is $5.50. Granted she got the rails run and saved ground but she still came from behind them and went past them. She won second-up in her first campaign and she is a G1 winner. 

Lizzie L'Amour is a five-time winner in her native NZ including the G1 Bonecrusher Stakes at her last start. This is her first run in Australia and there is money to suggest she can run well. Her first-up form (3:2-0-1) makes pretty good reading and four of her five wins have been on soft going so Moonee Valley should suit.

Bonneval is first-up since her dominant win in the G1 ATC Oaks (below) in April. She hasn't won below 2000m since winning on debut but she has won her last four in a row and five from eight overall so she doesn't run many poor races. She'll probably have to go back from that barrier so she'll need luck.

Rhythm To Spare is a specialist miler. Just compare his stats at the trip (22:9-1-2) to those at other distances (21:2-2-1). He's in good form and rock hard fit having won his last two in a row at the 1600m but stepping up to w-f-a makes it tougher. He should lob into a lovely spot from barrier five.

Sir Isaac Newton might find this a bit short and I doubt he'll love the tight Moonee Valley track but he is obviously very talented. They thought enough of him to run him in some serious G1 races back in Europe and while his two runs in Australia have been just fair the were in a G1 Caulfield Cup and a G2 Blamey Stakes. The wide gate is a minus.

Articus won second-up last prep following an average fresh run and I think the engagement of Craig Williams is significant because Darren Weir doesn't use him often but their strike rate is great. Granted 1600m is probably short of his best but he's been nibbled at in early betting and has drawn favourably.

Jacquinot Bay hasn't won for nearly 15 months and in the interim has managed just three placings from 17 subsequent starts. I find him hard to entertain here even if he is a six-time winner at the journey. Gallante is $61 and given he's a G1 Sydney Cup winner he'll be nowhere near his peak first-up at 1600m. The outside gate doesn't help either. Later on over further.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. He's Our Rokkii

DANGER  

10. Lizzie L'Amour

FOR EXOTICS

8. Articus
11. Bonneval
4. Star Exhibit

OTHER BETS

Addictive Nature (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) fought hard last start to win the G3 Ming Dynasty Stakes and I loved the way he dug in the last little bit when challenged. This is a small field and with no other real speed in the race it means he should be able to dictate terms here from the front. I think he'll be hard to run down again. Bjorn Baker and Tim Clark have combined 10 times so far this season for three wins and five placings.

Russian Revolution (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 1) is unbeaten fresh. First-up last prep (below) he won the G1 Galaxy beating Redzel and that gelding won his next three starts including a G1 Doomben 10,000. I can see him getting a lovely trail behind Houtzen and Heatherly here and Mark Zahra did ride a treble last weekend. The stable (Redzel, Pariah, Dracarys) is flying.

Bonny O'Reilly (Rosehill Race 6 No. 7) is four from four at Rosehill and four from four at 1200m. In three starts second-up she has two wins and a second to the talented In Her Time. She won well under a big weight fresh and she does look very well placed here at just 1kg over the minimum. She's won six of her last eight and as I've said here before I like backing winners. They tend to just win.

Good punting!

G1 Memsie Stakes Day - 02.09.2017

12 weeks since the last blog and 10 weeks since the last G1 but after a long hiatus both the the top quality racing and the medium quality writing returns.

We have the first G1 of the new season in Melbourne and the mighty mare Winx strutting her stuff in Sydney with a total of eight Black Type races across the two states.

In the words of Dean Yendall - "I have a raging hard on right now".

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Craig Williams has combined seven times with James Cummings since he took the helm at Godolphin and has ridden four winners and a second.

They combine tomorrow at Caulfield with Bezel (Race 3 No. 12), Trekking (Race 4 No. 3) and Tally (Race 8 No. 3).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a medium chance of showers. ***

Memsie Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Since Bundy Lad won this race back in 1994 at $13 the only winner to return double figure odds was Dissident ($12) in 2014. The last seven winners were resuming from a spell. Six of the last nine favourites have been successful.

Vega Magic has had one run at this trip for a win in the G3 Scahill Stakes in Perth but his 1200m record (12:9-1-1) is much better so the final furlong will be the query. He got a little lost here last start too and wanted to sail about in the straight and he won't be able to make mistakes like that against this lot. Still he's drawn beautifully to get a gun run here. Eight wins from his last 10 starts.

Le Romain is a model of consistency with 15 top two placings in a 19 start career. He's never won in three tries at 1400m but he has run second every time - to Press Statement, Hauraki and Tivaci no less. Second run in last prep he beat Chautauqua (below) in a G1 Canterbury Stakes. In four second-up runs he's never missed the top two. He'll be in the thick of it for a long way.

Hey Doc has won his last two second-up including the G3 Hayes Stakes at this trip in February. He looked really good fresh lumping a big weight to victory in the G3 Aurie's Star. Still yet to win here in four attempts but he did place in last year's G1 Caulfield Guineas. Since the Aurie's Star Handicap was first run in 1996 only Mic Mac (2009) has completed the double. Great barrier. Wary.

Black Heart Bart finished third in the G2 Lawrence Stakes last start - the first time in five runs at the Caulfield 1400m that he hasn't won. He may have needed the run given he's certainly not getting any younger but still he's never missed a place at this track in seven attempts now with five of those being wins. He won this race (below) last year and he'll make his own luck up near the lead.

They are the only runners at single figure odds. 

Tosen Stardom is proving to be a bit of a tease. He hasn't won for 671 days and his six starts in Australia have yielded three seconds, two fourths and a fifth. In his defence all those runs were at either G1 or G2 level but all of his career wins have come at 1800m-2000m. If anyone can turn him around it's Darren Weir but until he does something I can't be tumbling into him.

Yankee Rose hasn't been seen since finishing down the track in the G1 VRC Oaks last November. At her prior start (below) she finished on the heels of Hartnell in the G1 Cox Plate - albeit some eight lengths astern of Winx. That's still top class form and she is the fresh legs on the scene. She did run second in a G1 Golden Slipper fresh but she's gone for a bath ($8.50 out to $12) in early markets.

I Am A Star couldn't match the final 200m of the top three in the G3 Aurie's Star but her run was very good given they ran slick time. Just one win here from six starts but she did split Super Cash and Chautauqua here last prep in the G2 Rubiton Stakes. Unplaced in her last two second-up appearances and her last four wins were in fillies and mares grade.

Humidor ran well first-up against the bias and was doing his best work on the line. Last campaign he just missed second-up in the G3 Carlyon Cup over 1600m at this circuit after laying in badly all the way down the straight. He's drawn wide but he is a get back horse anyway so that's no real concern. Rough place hope.

Charmed Harmony is our likely leader from gate two and if this track is playing the way it was a fortnight ago he could well prove very difficult to run down. Only Hartnell got past him that day (below) in the G2 Lawrence Stakes and he left many of his more fancied rivals here in his wake. Eight top two finishes in 12 starts at this track and trip.

It's $41+ the rest and they've all drawn wide.

Jon Snow will probably find this lot a bit zippy because his best runs have been at 2000m+. I think connections will just be happy to see him come back in one piece and hopefully run past a few horses in the straight. He hasn't raced in five months and he's on a Cups trail so I would suggest this run is just a chance to blow off the cobwebs. Later.

Seaburge won two of his first three starts and placed in the other. Since then he's had 10 starts for just two placings in the last 18 months. Granted those two seconds came in a G1 Caulfield Guineas and G1 Mackinnon Stakes but he does tend to mix his form. Last campaign he resumed at this track and trip in the G3 Hayes Stakes and was pretty average.

Single Gaze hasn't won below 1600m since her debut victory almost three years ago. She was great during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 O'Shea Stakes and Listed Tails Stakes plus seconds in the G2 Brisbane Cup and G2 Hollindale Stakes but I think she'll need the run. She'll be better over further.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

8. Hey Doc

DANGER  

5. Vega Magic

FOR EXOTICS

6. Charmed Harmony
2. Le Romain
1. Black Heart Bart
12. Yankee Rose

OTHER BETS

Spieth (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) looks well placed at the conditions. He probably should have won the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) at 1000m fresh last preparation if not for a chequered passage down the straight. With Super Too and Redzel engaged here they are sure to run along in front which sets it up for this bloke to storm home over the top of them.

Sheidel (Caulfield Race 6 No. 4) won the G1 Oakleigh Plate at this track and trip first-up last campaign and she is another who looks very well in at the set weights plus penalties. Seven runs at this distance for five wins and a second, four starts at this track for three wins and a second and two wins and a second from three runs at this course and distance. Yes.

Good punting!