G1 Memsie Stakes Day - 02.09.2017

12 weeks since the last blog and 10 weeks since the last G1 but after a long hiatus both the the top quality racing and the medium quality writing returns.

We have the first G1 of the new season in Melbourne and the mighty mare Winx strutting her stuff in Sydney with a total of eight Black Type races across the two states.

In the words of Dean Yendall - "I have a raging hard on right now".

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Craig Williams has combined seven times with James Cummings since he took the helm at Godolphin and has ridden four winners and a second.

They combine tomorrow at Caulfield with Bezel (Race 3 No. 12), Trekking (Race 4 No. 3) and Tally (Race 8 No. 3).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a medium chance of showers. ***

Memsie Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Since Bundy Lad won this race back in 1994 at $13 the only winner to return double figure odds was Dissident ($12) in 2014. The last seven winners were resuming from a spell. Six of the last nine favourites have been successful.

Vega Magic has had one run at this trip for a win in the G3 Scahill Stakes in Perth but his 1200m record (12:9-1-1) is much better so the final furlong will be the query. He got a little lost here last start too and wanted to sail about in the straight and he won't be able to make mistakes like that against this lot. Still he's drawn beautifully to get a gun run here. Eight wins from his last 10 starts.

Le Romain is a model of consistency with 15 top two placings in a 19 start career. He's never won in three tries at 1400m but he has run second every time - to Press Statement, Hauraki and Tivaci no less. Second run in last prep he beat Chautauqua (below) in a G1 Canterbury Stakes. In four second-up runs he's never missed the top two. He'll be in the thick of it for a long way.

Hey Doc has won his last two second-up including the G3 Hayes Stakes at this trip in February. He looked really good fresh lumping a big weight to victory in the G3 Aurie's Star. Still yet to win here in four attempts but he did place in last year's G1 Caulfield Guineas. Since the Aurie's Star Handicap was first run in 1996 only Mic Mac (2009) has completed the double. Great barrier. Wary.

Black Heart Bart finished third in the G2 Lawrence Stakes last start - the first time in five runs at the Caulfield 1400m that he hasn't won. He may have needed the run given he's certainly not getting any younger but still he's never missed a place at this track in seven attempts now with five of those being wins. He won this race (below) last year and he'll make his own luck up near the lead.

They are the only runners at single figure odds. 

Tosen Stardom is proving to be a bit of a tease. He hasn't won for 671 days and his six starts in Australia have yielded three seconds, two fourths and a fifth. In his defence all those runs were at either G1 or G2 level but all of his career wins have come at 1800m-2000m. If anyone can turn him around it's Darren Weir but until he does something I can't be tumbling into him.

Yankee Rose hasn't been seen since finishing down the track in the G1 VRC Oaks last November. At her prior start (below) she finished on the heels of Hartnell in the G1 Cox Plate - albeit some eight lengths astern of Winx. That's still top class form and she is the fresh legs on the scene. She did run second in a G1 Golden Slipper fresh but she's gone for a bath ($8.50 out to $12) in early markets.

I Am A Star couldn't match the final 200m of the top three in the G3 Aurie's Star but her run was very good given they ran slick time. Just one win here from six starts but she did split Super Cash and Chautauqua here last prep in the G2 Rubiton Stakes. Unplaced in her last two second-up appearances and her last four wins were in fillies and mares grade.

Humidor ran well first-up against the bias and was doing his best work on the line. Last campaign he just missed second-up in the G3 Carlyon Cup over 1600m at this circuit after laying in badly all the way down the straight. He's drawn wide but he is a get back horse anyway so that's no real concern. Rough place hope.

Charmed Harmony is our likely leader from gate two and if this track is playing the way it was a fortnight ago he could well prove very difficult to run down. Only Hartnell got past him that day (below) in the G2 Lawrence Stakes and he left many of his more fancied rivals here in his wake. Eight top two finishes in 12 starts at this track and trip.

It's $41+ the rest and they've all drawn wide.

Jon Snow will probably find this lot a bit zippy because his best runs have been at 2000m+. I think connections will just be happy to see him come back in one piece and hopefully run past a few horses in the straight. He hasn't raced in five months and he's on a Cups trail so I would suggest this run is just a chance to blow off the cobwebs. Later.

Seaburge won two of his first three starts and placed in the other. Since then he's had 10 starts for just two placings in the last 18 months. Granted those two seconds came in a G1 Caulfield Guineas and G1 Mackinnon Stakes but he does tend to mix his form. Last campaign he resumed at this track and trip in the G3 Hayes Stakes and was pretty average.

Single Gaze hasn't won below 1600m since her debut victory almost three years ago. She was great during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 O'Shea Stakes and Listed Tails Stakes plus seconds in the G2 Brisbane Cup and G2 Hollindale Stakes but I think she'll need the run. She'll be better over further.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

8. Hey Doc

DANGER  

5. Vega Magic

FOR EXOTICS

6. Charmed Harmony
2. Le Romain
1. Black Heart Bart
12. Yankee Rose

OTHER BETS

Spieth (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) looks well placed at the conditions. He probably should have won the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) at 1000m fresh last preparation if not for a chequered passage down the straight. With Super Too and Redzel engaged here they are sure to run along in front which sets it up for this bloke to storm home over the top of them.

Sheidel (Caulfield Race 6 No. 4) won the G1 Oakleigh Plate at this track and trip first-up last campaign and she is another who looks very well in at the set weights plus penalties. Seven runs at this distance for five wins and a second, four starts at this track for three wins and a second and two wins and a second from three runs at this course and distance. Yes.

Good punting!