It's disappointing to see the $150K G3 Colin Stephen Quality - a race with a history that stretches back to 1870 - will have a field of just five runners.
On the bright side we have the $1M G1 Golden Rose Stakes and let's not forget the time honoured Listed Kalgoorlie Cup on Sunday.
On the bright side we have the $1M G1 Golden Rose Stakes and let's not forget the time honoured Listed Kalgoorlie Cup on Sunday.
Who's Hot?
Jockey Damian Lane bounced back from a fall in the fifth at Flemington last Saturday to win the next two races on the card. He had another winner at Cranbourne on Wednesday and he ventured to Pakenham yesterday for just the one ride - and he won again.
He's a busy boy at Caulfield tomorrow but according to early markets his best chances of success are Leather'n'lace (Race 1 No. 9), So Si Bon (Race 5 No. 2), Brave Smash (Race 6 No. 3) and Petition (Race 9 No. 11).
ROSEHILL
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***
The Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Menari will start a dominant favourite here on the back of consecutive victories that were both quite impressive. His dry track form is near faultless and although he's never won beyond 1200m I don't think it'll be a problem. He's drawn awkwardly but he was last start too and Josh Parr (who is riding really well) got him into a lovely spot without much effort. He's the one to beat for mine but I don't want to be taking $2 so I'm thinking trifecta.
It's hard to get a line through Merchant Navy because he comes off the Victorian form but he's unbeaten in four starts. He's drawn well this week and could be a lot closer in the run. His first-up win at Caulfield where he came from last with a big weight was impressive. There are others too but it would cost too much to throw them all in. Gold Standard hasn't done a lot wrong. Ditto the fillies Formality and Champagne Cuddles. Dracarys and Chauffeur are talented. Trapeze Artist isn't the worst. The Mission is a G1 winner. Perast was third to Menari and Pariah last start. Don't let me talk you out of backing anything. Just look at my recent record FFS.
Locky's Selections
2x3x7x10x11 BOXED TRIFECTA
The Golden Pendant (Group 2, 1400m, set weights plus penalties 3-y-o and up fillies and mares)
*** Euro Angel and Lubiton are early scratchings ***
Not much between Omei Sword, Daysee Doom and Bonny O'Reilly in the betting. In racebook order Omei Sword has a lovely barrier, a big race trainer and a big race jockey. That's a good combo. On this day last year she was held up badly and charged late to beat all bar Astern (below) in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes. Sure she has been disappointing when well tried in her two runs back this campaign but her sectionals were very good in races where the backmarkers just never got into the contest.
Daysee Doom doesn't do a lot wrong. She's never finished worse than fifth in a 12 start career that's yielded six wins and four placings. Andrew Adkins has to overcome the wide gate but he's ridden her in all but two of her starts and they stick with the apprentice here even though he can't claim. He knows her well. Two from two at 1400m. I tipped Bonny O'Reilly last start so if I don't tip her this time she will win. (It's how this blog works people. I'm not tipping her, so LOAD UP.) I've just got a notion she's a more effective horse at 1200m. Still she's won four from five at Rosehill and maps beautifully from barrier three.
Sweet Redemption is another who should get a glorious run. I can't really see anyone who is going to take her on so she probably lobs in front and could get a cushy run. She has been the subject of some early bets ($13 into $10). Dixie Blossoms has work to do early from the draw as does Danish Twist but they're both capable enough on their day. I could possibly entertain Denmagic in wider exotics.
Daysee Doom doesn't do a lot wrong. She's never finished worse than fifth in a 12 start career that's yielded six wins and four placings. Andrew Adkins has to overcome the wide gate but he's ridden her in all but two of her starts and they stick with the apprentice here even though he can't claim. He knows her well. Two from two at 1400m. I tipped Bonny O'Reilly last start so if I don't tip her this time she will win. (It's how this blog works people. I'm not tipping her, so LOAD UP.) I've just got a notion she's a more effective horse at 1200m. Still she's won four from five at Rosehill and maps beautifully from barrier three.
Sweet Redemption is another who should get a glorious run. I can't really see anyone who is going to take her on so she probably lobs in front and could get a cushy run. She has been the subject of some early bets ($13 into $10). Dixie Blossoms has work to do early from the draw as does Danish Twist but they're both capable enough on their day. I could possibly entertain Denmagic in wider exotics.
Locky's Selections
3. Sweet Redemption EACH-WAY
CAULFIELD
Naturalism Stakes (Group 3, 2000m, quality handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
As I said previously anything I tip on this blog that doesn't win (which is most of them, let's face it) usually comes out and wins at their next start. So Amelie's Star is a moral certainty here. Drawn out rather than in is a good thing because she can avoid all the traffic she ran into last start. Weir + Lane = Tick. But this is a wide open race and not one I'm entirely sure I'm keen to play in.
Abbey Marie looked like she's getting back to somewhere near peak form last start when a close-up second to the very talented Bonneval (below) in the G2 Feehan Stakes. She is well placed here at 55.5kg or just 1.5kg over the minimum given she is a winner of a G1 Australasian Oaks.
Stampede doesn't run too many bad races. Six wins from just the 10 starts with three second placings thrown in for good measure. He carried 59kg first-up at a mile (not his best trip) and he conceded the second horse 5kg and absolutely crushed them. Gallante ran second in this race last year to Jameka when conceding her 3kg. He was first-up that day too but he's zero from nine on firm tracks.
Big Duke is up to 2000m now after two runs at the mile. Last start at Moonee Valley he attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. Tally won the Listed Mornington Cup third-up last prep. Just one win in six Caulfield starts but it was a G2 Autumn Classic. I thought Harlem was great first-up coming from well back in a race where the winner led and controlled the race from the front. Samovare is a lightly raced 4-y-o mare who rises sharply in class but she is building an impressive record. She has plenty of upside. Another former WA galloper now with Hayes & Dabernig. Wary. Harlow Gold wouldn't be a total shock. Articus could improve but I couldn't have him on his last run.
Locky's Selections
Abbey Marie looked like she's getting back to somewhere near peak form last start when a close-up second to the very talented Bonneval (below) in the G2 Feehan Stakes. She is well placed here at 55.5kg or just 1.5kg over the minimum given she is a winner of a G1 Australasian Oaks.
Stampede doesn't run too many bad races. Six wins from just the 10 starts with three second placings thrown in for good measure. He carried 59kg first-up at a mile (not his best trip) and he conceded the second horse 5kg and absolutely crushed them. Gallante ran second in this race last year to Jameka when conceding her 3kg. He was first-up that day too but he's zero from nine on firm tracks.
Big Duke is up to 2000m now after two runs at the mile. Last start at Moonee Valley he attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. Tally won the Listed Mornington Cup third-up last prep. Just one win in six Caulfield starts but it was a G2 Autumn Classic. I thought Harlem was great first-up coming from well back in a race where the winner led and controlled the race from the front. Samovare is a lightly raced 4-y-o mare who rises sharply in class but she is building an impressive record. She has plenty of upside. Another former WA galloper now with Hayes & Dabernig. Wary. Harlow Gold wouldn't be a total shock. Articus could improve but I couldn't have him on his last run.
Locky's Selections
15. Samovare EACH-WAY (without any real confidence)
OTHER BETS
P.S. Why in the hell is this race called the Pinchapoo Plate? What's next? The Snap One Off Stakes?
So Si Bon (Caulfield Race 5 No. 2) was tipped here two weeks ago and didn't win. Therefore he will win at his next start. Trust me, it happens all the time. Plus the step up to 1400m appeals to me. Two starts back he almost beat Voodoo Lad here. I like the addition of jockey Damian Lane too. I've been Willowed quite enough lately thank you very much.
willowed
[wil-ohd]
verb
1. to back a well tried horse only to watch it get absolutely slaughtered by Craig Williams
Good punting!
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