Lightning Stakes preview

No less than nine black type races this weekend spread over Sydney and Melbourne and the list of big names returning to the track continues to swell.

The feature is the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington with a host of our best sprinters set to lock horns down the famous Flemington straight including Samaready, Shamexpress and Snitzerland.

The highlight for me however will be the G2 Breeders Classic at Rosehill and it's not hard to see why when the list of competitors includes such top class mares as Streama, Catkins and Steps in Time. Watch the skies though because there could be some rain about which could change the complexion of the race.

The youngsters strut their stuff at Flemington in the Talindert Stakes while at Rosehill they do battle in the Widden Stakes (fillies) and the Canonbury Stakes (colts & geldings). There'll be plenty of competition with the Golden Slipper only seven weeks away.

Meantime some Australian Guineas hopefuls will take centre stage in the C.S. Hayes Stakes and The Vanity, while in Sydney the three-year-old sprinters slug it out in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Peter Moody had a lean start to 2014 but he seems to be back on track now with a winning treble at Caulfield last Saturday. He followed that up with a winner at Hamilton on Sunday from just the two starters and another at Mornington on Wednesday.

He has quite a few runners at Flemington tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Ducal Castle (Race 1 No. 2), Sino Eagle (Race 3 No. 4), Sensibility (Race 5 No. 3), Are There Any (Race 8 No. 8) and Club Command (Race 9 No. 2).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with scattered showers developing in the afternoon. ***

Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  Thermal Current is an early scratching ***

In the last 11 years, six Australian horses have gone to Royal Ascot and won either the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, the King's Stand Stakes, or both. All of them ran in this race four months prior with five of them winning (Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast & Black Caviar) while Starspangledbanner finished fourth. Not a bad honour roll, especially when you throw in the winners who didn't go to England like Apache Cat, Fastnet Rock, Regimental Gal, Spinning Hill & Testa Rossa. A quality race.

If you take out Black Caviar's three wins in the last three years it's been a graveyard for favourites with just two others winning since 2000. Yet only three winners in the last 20 years have returned double figure odds. 14 of the last 20 paid $6.50 or less including nine of the last 10. Exotic punters take note - no favourite has missed the First Four since 2002.

Samaready won first-up with a big weight last campaign before thrashing a field of quality sprinters in the Moir Stakes (below) that included subsequent three-time G1 winner Buffering. On that form she'll give this an almighty shake and it may pay to forgive her Manikato Stakes run because there was obviously something amiss. Apart from her aborted three-year-old campaign that has been her only failure. Won her only start at this track and distance on debut but hasn't started here in more than two years. Is 1000m too short?

Snitzerland was just collared over this trip on VRC Oaks Day by Lankan Rupee who will likely start favourite in next week's Oakleigh Plate on the back of his dominant win last weekend. Gerald Ryan does make a habit of coming to Melbourne at this time of year and pinching the Vics prizemoney too. Mrs Onassis won last year's Oakleigh Plate and Snitzel won it in 2006, Flying Snitzel caused a boilover this time last year when defeating odds-on favourite Norzita in the Kewney Stakes, Rubick bagged the Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) just last week and Snitzerland herself won a Thoroughbred Breeders Cup down here this time two years ago. Bolted in by six lengths in a 900m barrier trial at Rosehill a week and a half ago and recorded the fastest trial time at Rosehill in six years. She's obviously tuned up for this.

Bernabeu dazzled in a recent 800m Flemington jumpout where he stopped the clock at a sizzling 45.81 and effortlessly beat some handy sprinters including Shamexpress. You can watch it here. His only start at Flemington was on Melbourne Cup Day last November over this distance where he sat on the pace before careering away to win by more than three lengths in slick time. That was against his own age. It's a big step up to open company and Group 1 racing.

Shamexpress goes OK down the straight here at Flemington. He won here on debut and claimed last year's G1 Newmarket Handicap (beating last week's G1 Orr Stakes winner Moment of Change). He also finished second to Buffering in the G1 VRC Sprint Classic last November and third to Nechita in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes the previous Spring. Unfortunately all of those were over the longer 1200m trip. His one run here at 1000m saw him finish sixth behind Black Caviar in this race last year.

Unpretentious trialled well, finishing on the heels of Lankan Rupee who came out and brained them last Saturday in the G3 Rubiton Stakes. Won the G3 Schillaci Stakes first-up over 1000m last October and did win a "straight six" race here on Cup Day 2012. Capable on his day.

Boomwaa and Bugatty are attempting to become the first two-year-old to win the Lightning since 1976. That stat could be misleading though because the last juvenile to even contest the race was Clever Zoe (2nd) in 1993. Obviously they are well in at the w-f-a scale (46kg) but I just feel this might stretch them at this stage of their careers. On the plus side they have recent racing under their belts whereas the top fancies are all first-up.

$21+ the rest.

Locky's Selections

8 Snitzerland
5 Unpretentious
7 Samaready
1 Shamexpress

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a chance of showers tonight with areas of rain in the morning easing to isolated showers in the afternoon. ***

Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Steps in Time has won the last two renewals of this race. She hasn't won for nearly a year though (beating Streama in the Wiggle last March) so you're taking her on trust. Previously trained by John O'Shea, the mare is now in the capable hands of Joe Pride with connections keen to ensure some continuity in her preparation with O'Shea set to take over from Peter Snowden at Darley in May. I'm going to wait and see how she has returned.

Streama has had two barrier trials in readiness for this, a similar preparation to stablemate Appearance who destroyed a top notch field in last weekend's G2 Expressway Stakes at Randwick. She was also nominated for the G1 Lightning (1000m) at Flemington so she's obviously shown trainer Guy Walter some dash in those hit-outs. Problem is she's had six goes first-up and is yet to win although having said that she has never missed a place with four seconds and two thirds. Looked good in the Spring with victory in the G1 George Main Satkes and narrow seconds in the G1 Epsom (behind Boban) and G2 Warwick Stakes. Three wins and four placings from eight starts on slow or worse going.

Catkins flies fresh with three wins and a second from four attempts. She met Red Tracer at set weights in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day (below) and just missed. That's close to the strongest mares form in the country and even though that race was over 1600m she's shown herself to be above average at the sprint journeys. Trainer Chris Waller is dominating the Sydney premiership and jockey Hugh Bowman has ridden 9 winners in the last three weeks. Two wins from three goes on affected ground.

Sharnee Rose will have her admirers too because she too has a victory over Red Tracer to her credit last prep, albeit with a 4kg advantage at the weight scale. Has always shown ability and appeared to turn the corner last Spring with back-to-back G3 wins followed by a good fourth in the aforementioned G1 Myer Classic behind Red Tracer, Catkins and Fire Up Fifi at level weights. She'll be juicy odds and isn't the worst.

White Sage is unbeaten in five starts and the stable obviously has wraps on her because she's started favourite every time - four times at odds-on. Safe to say this is easily her biggest test to date but she has responded every time they have raised the bar. Has won twice first-up at 1200m from two attempts in much weaker company (including one here at Rosehill) and she's running the closing sectionals of a quality galloper. Won by five lengths at her only start on a wet track.

Six of the eight runners are first-up so at least Driefontein and Emmalene will have a bit of a fitness edge. Both ran really well at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions Day but this is a much tougher assignment. Driefontein will appreciate the drop in weight too but she still doesn't appear to be well in here at the SW+P compared to Catkins and Streama. Emmalene can run a race fresh but even a cursory examination of her recent runs will show that she has been mixing her form.

I couldn't back Pretty Pins if a gun was held to my head.

Locky's Selections

3 Catkins
1 Streama
6 White Sage
4 Sharnee Rose

Other bets

Dissident (Rosehill Race 5 No. 3) is just 2kg over the minimum here probably due to his consistent but ultimately luckless Spring campaign. Started with consecutive seconds to Eurozone (Rosebud), Va Pensiero (Run to the Rose) and Zoustar (Golden Rose). Followed that with a sixth to Streama (beaten less than two and a half lengths) in the G1 George Main then finished with a fourth in Long John's Caulfield Guineas. Long John came out early today our time to win the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai (below) by more than four lengths! Combine form around horses like that with his good fresh record and I think $3.50 is a good bet.

Solicit (Flemington Race 5 No. 1) looks well in here at level weights because under handicap conditions she'd be giving at least four kilos to this lot. First-up last prep she won a maiden at Ballarat beating Suavito who would have four more starts in the Spring for two wins, a second to Dothraki on Emirates Stakes Day and a third to May's Dream on Rupert Clarke Stakes Day. Three goes here at Flemington and although she hasn't won she has notched thirds in big races like the Edward Manifold, the Wakeful and the Oaks. Looks likely to get the best run in transit from the inside draw. Backable at $4.20.

Pasquinel (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) has won four of his last five including his first two this prep in impressive fashion. The wide barrier is no concern because he will drift back. Trainer Steven O'Dea doesn't have a big team but his strike rate is good - he's had just five runners since the start of the month for two winners and two placegetters. Kirk Matheson has ridden five winners from his last 10 rides including two midweek doubles and the two kilo claim is a big plus. Looking for 1600m now and we should get $4.00 if we're lucky.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Queensland based hoop Damian Browne returned from suspension mid-January and has ridden 7 winners from his last 26 rides at a strike rate of almost 27%. That was enough to convince Darley to give him the call-up in the absence of the injured Kerrin McEvoy and so he's off to Melbourne this weekend.

He hasn't ridden a winner for Peter Snowden this season but has landed three placegetters from just four opportunities. Tomorrow he rides Carillo (Race 3 No. 7) SCR, Earthquake (Race 5 No. 3) 1st $1.55 win / $1.10 place and Mohave (Race 6 No. 1) 10th and he did enjoy good success here during the Spring Carnival.

Caulfield

C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

They didn't set any land speed records early and as such Moment of Change was able to dominate from the front. Eurozone did well to get as close as he did considering he's come from four lengths adrift at the 600m and they've nipped home in 34.62. Shamus Award is a forgive because he just seemed to run out of condition and he did have the arduous task of dragging them up to the leader. Foreteller gets a pass mark from an Australian Cup point of view, Finishing Card did as well as could be expected and netted $10K for connections and Hawkspur was absolutely disgraceful. 

* Hoop Michael Walker reported that the gelding did not respond to his urgings in the straight and stated the horse may be a bit dour following his Melbourne Cup campaign. A vet check revealed no abnormalities.

Locky's Selections

7 Shamus Award 3rd NTD
8 Eurozone 2nd $2.50 place
4 Hawkspur 6th
3 Moment of Change 1st $2.35 win / $1.50 place

Trifecta 3-8-7 $18.40
Exacta 3-8 $9.70
Quinella 8-3 $5.60

Other bets

Polanski (Caulfield Race 3 No. 1) is thrown in here at the set weights plus penalties because in a handicap he'd be giving at least 15kg to this lot. He looked good in a recent 800m trial at Cranbourne where he sat on the speed and finished on the heels of Oakleigh Plate hopefuls Lankan Rupee and Unpretentious. The stable is talking possibly the Futurity Stakes followed by the Australian Guineas so expect him to be a bit more forward in his prep than he was first-up last time in. One from one here at the 1400m. $3.30. LATE SCRATCHING.

Sizzling (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) has tempted Hugh Bowman to stay in Sydney despite the fact he could easily have ridden both Polanski and Eurozone at Caulfield. He can run a race fresh and a change of stable quite often brings about a change in fortunes. I like the fact that he's drawn the outside in barrier 11 because he's shown in the past he races best when given clear running and they really only have to negotiate only one bend from the 1200m chute start here at Headquarters. Looks to be a race set up for a swooper with Rain Affair, Any Day Will Do, Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad sure to run them along at a good clip. $13. 3rd. $2.80 place. As I predicted it was a swoopers race. I just identified the wrong swooper.

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Orr Stakes preview

Don't have a late one tonight because they've moved the meeting forward and the first race jumps at 11am Melbourne time. 10am if you're in Queensland. 8am if you're in WA. The pub won't even be open.

It's the first Group 1 of 2014 with the Orr Stakes at Caulfield and it's backed up by some magnificent support races in both Melbourne and Sydney.

The G2 Expressway Stakes at Randwick sees the likes of Boban, Appearance, Sizzling, Rain Affair, Speediness and Pinwheel back from the spelling paddock.

Meanwhile in Melbourne some quality three-year-olds are kicking off their campaigns with the Australian Guineas just three weeks away. We also see the return of some of our top class weight-for-age stayers with the Australian Cup due in less than a month.

Throw in the Blue Diamond Preludes where the juvenile boys and girls try to book a place in the $1M Blue Diamond Stakes to be run in a fortnight and you have the makings for a crackerjack day of racing.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Queensland based hoop Damian Browne returned from suspension mid-January and has ridden 7 winners from his last 26 rides at a strike rate of almost 27%. That was enough to convince Darley to give him the call-up in the absence of the injured Kerrin McEvoy and so he's off to Melbourne this weekend.

He hasn't ridden a winner for Peter Snowden this season but has landed three placegetters from just four opportunities. Tomorrow he rides Carillo (Race 3 No. 7), Earthquake (Race 5 No. 3) and Mohave (Race 6 No. 1) and he did enjoy good success here during the Spring Carnival.

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a hot and sunny day. ***

C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  Playing God and Sertorius are early scratchings ***

A good horses race. In the last 15 years it's produced winners such as Redoute's Choice, Lonhro, Elvstroem, El Segundo, Maldivian, Typhoon Tracy (twice), Black Caviar and All Too Hard.

Six three-year-olds have won during that period although All Too Hard last year was the first to do so since 2003. 12 of the 15 winners paid $7 or less with the last four favourites all successful. Inside barriers are a plus from the tricky 1400m start here but the small field will offset that to some degree.

Group 1 status and almost a quarter of a million dollars prizemoney for first place is nothing to sneeze at however some of these horses are targeting the Australian Cup at Flemington in March and may not be fully wound up here. 

I'm thinking especially of the Waller runners Hawkspur and Foreteller because he doesn't really make a habit of producing winners fresh. Both these runners went fairly first-up last preparation before scoring big wins second-up in the Chelmsford Stakes and Makybe Diva Stakes respectively. I still expect bold showings from both.

Shamus Award is first-up since winning the Cox Plate but there is a precedent to say it can be done. All Too Hard saluted last year after finishing 2nd to Ocean Park in the Plate the previous October. Maldivian did the double in 2008/9. Looked impressive winning an 800m Flemington jump-out last Friday by about four lengths. That was his second hit-out in a fortnight so he's been tuned up for this although his main target is the Australian Guineas at Flemington next month.

The other three-year-old Eurozone commands respect because he's won four from six in Sydney and he was only three lengths behind Zoustar (and just a length and a half adrift of last weekend's Manfred Stakes winner Bull Point) in the Golden Rose (below). He has had the benefit of a gallop the reverse way of going at Caulfield on Tuesday with raceday jockey Damien Oliver aboard. He was the Cummings partnership's first stakes winner back in August and is aiming to provide them with their first G1.

Moment of Change has residual fitness on his side and always seems to run a handy race but he appears to be camera shy of late. Unbeaten here at the 1400m in two attempts including a G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. Moody and Nolen have combined to win this race three times in the last four years.

Finishing Card appears to be out of his depth.

Locky's Selections

7 Shamus Award
8 Eurozone
4 Hawkspur
3 Moment of Change

Other bets

Polanski (Caulfield Race 3 No. 1) is thrown in here at the set weights plus penalties because in a handicap he'd be giving at least 15kg to this lot. He looked good in a recent 800m trial at Cranbourne where he sat on the speed and finished on the heels of Oakleigh Plate hopefuls Lankan Rupee and Unpretentious. The stable is talking possibly the Futurity Stakes followed by the Australian Guineas so expect him to be a bit more forward in his prep than he was first-up last time in. One from one here at the 1400m. $3.30.

Polanski winning the VRC Derby at Flemington in November

Sizzling (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) has tempted Hugh Bowman to stay in Sydney despite the fact he could easily have ridden both Polanski and Eurozone at Caulfield. He can run a race fresh and a change of stable quite often brings about a change in fortunes. I like the fact that he's drawn the outside in barrier 11 because he's shown in the past he races best when given clear running and they really only have to negotiate only one bend from the 1200m chute start here at Headquarters. Looks to be a race set up for a swooper with Rain Affair, Any Day Will Do, Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad sure to run them along at a good clip. $13.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Mick Kent is in good touch with nine winners from 26 runners in the last three weeks stretching from Moonee Valley to the Yarra Valley, Flemington to Mornington, Werribee to Sale and even Yea. I don't even know where Yea is.

Tomorrow at Caulfield he has Scratchy Bottom (Race 1 No. 4) 1st $4.30 win / $1.70 place and Epingle (Race 8 No. 5) SCR. He also has runners at Kyneton. (Bikini Dancer won the first at $4.90 win / $2.00 place)

Caulfield

Manfred Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Bull Point looked good and the second horse Worth a Ransom ran out of his skin and has obviously improved since being gelded. The Quarterback was the real eye-catcher and it may pay to watch him come Guineas time. Prince Harada needs to lift on that.

Locky's Selections

4 Bull Point (1st)
5 Prince Harada (4th)
6 Monkstone (8th)
7 Hard Stride (7th)

Other bets

Teronado (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is a horse I've been following as longtime followers of this blog will know. He'll have to give weight to all his opposition and they do have race fitness on their side whereas he is first-up but I think this guy has a touch of class. Being aimed at the Australian Guineas at Flemington in March. Scratched from Brisbane for this. $7.50. 3rd. NPP. Late scratching of the natural leader didn't help. They walked in front and sprinted home. Did well to maintain his spot in the running down the home straight.

Jarklin (Caulfield Race 4 No. 2) placed behind Blue Diamond Preview (F&M) winner Eloping on debut then won at his second start. Followed that with a second to spruik horse Nostradamus. Worth a nibble each-way at $26. 7th. Outclassed.

Ecuador (Rosehill Race 6 No. 8) is a lightly raced four-year-old who looks a good horse in the making. Nine career starts for three wins, five seconds and a sixth beaten a length in an Epsom when he was at the end of his campaign and had probably had enough. Like the fact that he goes straight to the 1400m first-up and that he's had a couple of solid jumpouts in the lead up to this race. $2.20. SCR.

African Pulse (Caulfield Race 7 No. 5) is five from five first-up and has five wins and a second from six attempts at 1000m including two out of two here at The Heath. Has to give weight to a good young horse on the way up but it's worth the gamble at around $4.50. 4th. No excuses.

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Flemington preview

Went like a busted last week but hopefully the hit-out has helped and I'll strip fitter for the run.

Beware second-up syndrome however.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Mick Kent is in good touch with nine winners from 26 runners in the last three weeks strectching from Moonee Valley to the Yarra Valley, Flemington to Mornington, Werribee to Sale and even Yea. I don't even know where Yea is.

Tomorrow at Caulfield he has Scratchy Bottom (Race 1 No. 4) and Epingle (Race 8 No. 5). He also has runners at Kyneton.

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***

Manfred Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Tough race - a field of eight and seven are resuming. So how does the first-up form look?

Fast 'n' Rocking was narrowly beaten by Safeguard when fresh in the G3 Vain Stakes last prep and he was unlucky. Previous two first-up runs were average however. The Quarterback was unlucky on debut then was turned out and did win his second, first-up run but that was at Bairnsdale. Bull Point (Randwick) and Worth A Ransom (Echuca) won on debut. So too did Prince Harada (Ballarat) and his second fresh run resulted in an unlucky, narrow second to Fast 'n' Rocking in the G3 McNeil Stakes last August. Monkstone finished second on debut to the talented Lord of the Sky who will start a short priced favourite against the older horses later in the day in the Adams Stakes.

Hard Stride is the only runner second-up and he did win fresh. The second horse has subsequently won by a big space and was just a tick outside the track record, albeit at Stony Creek.

Also worth noting is that Damien Oliver has jumped off Prince Harada (the likely favourite) to ride Bull Point. Do we read anything into that? Bull Point did give Prince Harada and Fast 'n' Rocking windburn when he blew past them in the G1 Golden Rose last September. Ollie has had just nine rides for Gai Waterhouse since returning from his ban and has notched five winners (55.6%) including Divine Calling (Stutt Stakes), Fiorente (Melbourne Cup) and The Offer (Ballarat Cup).

Of the five under double figure odds Prince Harada, Bull Point and Monkstone get 1.5kg from Fast 'n' Rocking and The Quarterback. Barriers shouldn't be a concern with a small field and a 600m run to the first bend.

I think Zoustar is the best 3-y-o in the country and with that in mind I think the Golden Rose form will stack up so I'm putting Bull Point on top of Prince Harada. Monkstone the next best ahead of Hard Stride who has a bit of fitness on his side.

Side note - the Super Bowl is on Monday morning (our time) and there is a horse here called The Quarterback. His jockey is M. Allen.

Locky's Selections

4 Bull Point
5 Prince Harada
6 Monkstone
7 Hard Stride

Other bets

Teronado (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is a horse I've been following as longtime followers of this blog will know. He'll have to give weight to all his opposition and they do have race fitness on their side whereas he is first-up but I think this guy has a touch of class. Being aimed at the Australian Guineas at Flemington in March. Scratched from Brisbane for this. $7.50.

Jarklin (Caulfield Race 4 No. 2) placed behind Blue Diamond Preview (F&M) winner Eloping on debut then won at his second start. Followed that with a second to spruik horse Nostradamus. Worth a nibble each-way at $26.

Ecuador (Rosehill Race 6 No. 8) is a lightly raced four-year-old who looks a good horse in the making. Nine career starts for three wins, five seconds and a sixth beaten a length in an Epsom when he was at the end of his campaign and had probably had enough. Like the fact that he goes straight to the 1400m first-up and that he's had a couple of solid jumpouts in the lead up to this race. $2.20.

African Pulse (Caulfield Race 7 No. 5) is five from five first-up and has five wins and a second from six attempts at 1000m including two out of two here at The Heath. Has to give weight to a good young horse on the way up but it's worth the gamble at around $4.50.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Since the start of the year Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra have produced 10 winners from 36 starters including doubles at Caulfield, Flemington and Werribee.

Tonight they have Miss Maggiebeel entered at Moonee Valley (Race 7 No. 10) 8th and they have just the one runner again tomorrow at Caulfield in Whistle Baby (Race 5 No. 5) 2nd $2.20 place.

Caulfield

Blue Diamond Preview - Fillies (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)

Winner looked good, the rest only so-so.

Locky's Selections

4 Avanti (6th)
5 Eloping (1st) $3.20 win / $1.40 place
1 Golconda (8th)
7 London Lolly (4th)

Blue Diamond Preview - Colts & Geldings (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)

Top three were all good.

Locky's Selections

2 Mohave (1st) $4.10 win / $1.70 place
1 Cornrow (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Tudor (5th)
3 Ducal Castle (3rd) $2.20 place

Trifecta 2-1-3 $47.10
Exacta 2-1 $12.70
Quinella 1-2 $6.00
Any 2 1-2 $3.10
Any 2 1-3 $5.10
Any 2 2-3 $3.20

Other bets

Spending (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) was slowly away last start and badly held up for most of the straight but still managed to finish second beaten about a quarter of a length. Looks well placed here in a similar race. 5th. Bombed the start. Game over from there.

I will be accused of sentimentality here because I'm a Seahawks fan and they've made it to the Super Bowl but I can't get past the last start run of Streets of Seattle (Caulfield Race 7 No. 3). Over an unsuitable distance second-up in a much stronger race she came from near last to snatch third at any old price. I think she is great each-way value at around $18 and I expect to see her closer to the lead tomorrow from the good draw. Not badly in with the three kilo claim. 9th. I hope the Seahawks go better under pressure than she did.

Brigantin (Randwick Race 6 No. 1) has had two runs for Chris Waller now and he looks ready to win after a solid second in the Gosford Cup. Meets Midsummer Sun two kilos better off for that narrow defeat. First start in this country he ran 3rd in the Geelong Cup (2012) then he was sidelined for a year with a pastern injury. Forget his last campaign as he simply didn't come up and he is in a new yard now.First post for more than a month. 3rd. NTD. Not suited by the trot and canter tempo.

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Australia Day long weekend preview

First post since Xmas and I would have preferred a stronger meeting but I have to resume sometime.

I'm going to ignore the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight because if that is a Group 2 weight-for-age race for almost a quarter of a million dollars in prizemoney I'll give it up.

The babies are stepping out at Caulfield tomorrow hoping to qualify for next month's $1M Blue Diamond Stakes. I'll take a peek at those races but there isn't a lot of exposed form.

The stayers do battle at Royal Randwick in the Australia Day Cup. Most of the runners will be horses that began their life in Europe before being shipped off to Australia. How fitting.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Since the start of the year Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra have produced 10 winners from 36 starters including doubles at Caulfield, Flemington and Werribee.

Tonight they have Miss Maggiebeel entered at Moonee Valley (Race 7 No. 10) and they have just the one runner again tomorrow at Caulfield in Whistle Baby (Race 5 No. 5).

Caulfield

*** As of 11.30am today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for the chance of  shower tomorrow morning before clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***

Blue Diamond Preview - Fillies (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

I like Avanti here at each-way odds. The stable obviously knew something before her debut win because she was well tried at Seymour that day to beat a short priced favourite. The overall time was good too being just a tick outside that run over the same distance later in the day by the older horses. Her sire Street Cry is on fire this season in the two-year-old ranks with four winners from just eight starters.

Eloping is another who was backed off the map on debut. The third horse in that race (who she beat by almost eight lengths) has subsequently won.

Golconda looked good before going for a spell. Got too far back behind Magic Millions runner-up Oakleigh Girl on debut. Came from 11th of 13 to finish fourth beaten less than three lengths in a race where they clocked 32.89 for the final 600m. Next start came out and blitzed them in the Merson Cooper. Has to give them all 2.5kg though under the conditions.

Keep an eye out for any moves in the market for Team Hawkes first starter London Lolly.

Locky's Selections

4 Avanti
5 Eloping
1 Golconda
7 London Lolly

Blue Diamond Preview - Colts & Geldings (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Mohave was good on debut when 2nd in the Breeders and the horse that finished 3rd came out to win his next race, beating Unencumbered, the subsequent Magic Millions winner.

Tudor chased home the highly regarded Eloping at his first start and had almost three lengths on Jarklin back in third who went on to win his next start.

Cornrow raced well on debut on Cox Plate Day to be beaten half a length into third in the Inglis Banner. Finished a length in front of Boomwaa who would come out a fortnight later and claim the Maribyrnong Plate.

Ducal Castle should be better for his first run because he did a few things wrong and I think the blinkers going on will be a big plus.

Locky's Selections

2 Mohave
1 Cornrow
5 Tudor
3 Ducal Castle

Other bets

Spending (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) was slowly away last start and badly held up for most of the straight but still managed to finish second beaten about a quarter of a length. Looks well placed here in a similar race.

I will be accused of sentimentality here because I'm a Seahawks fan and they've made it to the Super Bowl but I can't get past the last start run of Streets of Seattle (Caulfield Race 7 No. 3). Over an unsuitable distance second-up in a much stronger race she came from near last to snatch third at any old price. I think she is great each-way value at around $18 and I expect to see her closer to the lead tomorrow from the good draw. Not badly in with the three kilo claim.

Brigantin (Randwick Race 6 No. 1) has had two runs for Chris Waller now and he looks ready to win after a solid second in the Gosford Cup. Meets Midsummer Sun two kilos better off for that narrow defeat. First start in this country he ran 3rd in the Geelong Cup (2012) then he was sidelined for a year with a pastern injury. Forget his last campaign as he simply didn't come up and he is in a new yard now.

LOOKING BACK

First post for more than a month.

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Villiers Stakes preview

This will be the final post for 2013 as I take a much needed break following a busy Spring.

I won't return for over a month with the next instalment due prior to the Australia Day long weekend to take a look at the Blue Diamond Previews and the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley.

There are a few good races in the meantime including the traditional Boxing Day and New Year's Day meetings not to mention the Magic Millions race-day in early January

I will also try to find some winners to send us out on a high note.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Phillip Stokes has appeared in this segment before but has muscled his way back in through sheer weight of winners.

In the last 28 days he has trained 14 winners from just 25 starters at the staggering strike rate of 56% including a double and three trebles. 

He has four runners at Morphettville tomorrow - Tenere (Race 2 No. 1), Scarpeleeno (Race 2 No. 5), War Heights (Race 2 No. 6) and Chieftain Jack (Race 4 No. 4).

Kensington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. ***

Villiers Stakes (Group 2, 1550m, quality handicap)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

This is a time honoured race with a history dating back to 1892 but I have to say this is not a vintage edition and the fact the bookies are going to bet around 5-1 the field emphasises that.

Pretty hard to get excited about a G2 race where a horse like Strike the Stars will start close to favourite, considering he broke through for just his second win in twenty something starts two months ago.

In a race where so many appear to have had their chances over the years it may pay to look for a young horse or a lightly raced type who is still on the way up and improving. It's hard to see many of these taking it to another level at this stage. If they were going to do something you'd think they would have done it by now. Where talking about a field comprised of horses who have won a combined total of nine races in their last 56 starts - and three of those belong to one horse (Absalon).

I don't like giving tips just for the sake of giving tips which is why I'm taking a break over this quiet period racing wise. So please don't sell the tractor, take out a second mortgage on the farm and put Grandma's old jewellery in hock to load up on my tips in this race.

But here they are simply for the record.

Locky's Selections

12 Taxmeifyoucan
11 Sysmo
10 Listen Son

Other bets

Nothing stands out at the races but if you like the NFL I can't believe the Jacksonville Jaguars will start as underdogs this weekend against the Buffalo Bills.

Granted the Jags started the season poorly with eight straight losses but they've won four of their last five and it must be noted that in the first eight rounds they faced off against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Colts, Broncos and 49ers.

Meanwhile the Bills have lost five of their last six outings including consecutive defeats to lowly Atlanta (3-10) and Tampa Bay (4-9) in the last fortnight. They also have a woeful record on the road (1-5). Glad I'm not a Buffalo fan.

$2.05 looks attractive in a two horse race.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Since the start of this month Ascot based trainer Simon Miller has had just 18 runners but has produced six winners at a strike rate of one in three.

He has entrants in all three feature races tomorrow - Platinum Rocker in the Railway Stakes (Race 8 No. 13) 2nd $7.90 place, Power Princess in the Winterbottom Stakes (Race 7 No. 13) 6th plus two runners in the WA Guineas in Saint Bro (Race 6 No. 6) 3rd $2.80 place and Miss Rose De Lago (Race 6 No. 14) 2nd $1.90 place.

Ascot

Railway Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

Locky's Selections

4 Smokin' Joey (15th)
9 Fire Up Fifi (3rd) $2.20 place
3 Conservatorium (8th)
7 Kerrific (4th)

Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Previously I wrote:

"Buffering really does pick himself here following successive Group 1 victories in the Manikato Stakes and VRC Sprint. As alluded to previously Heathcote and Browne have been in great touch these last few months and I really don't see barrier eight as a problem because they've got a 600m run before they have to negotiate the first and only turn."

Spirit of Boom should have finished closer but he got skittled on the home turn.

Locky's Selections

1 Buffering (1st) $2.10 win / $1.30 place
4 Barakey (9th)
2 Spirit of Boom (4th)
13 Power Princess (6th)

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What do you mean it doesn't look anything like her?
-  Pablo Picasso, Spain, 1910

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