No less than nine black type races this weekend spread over Sydney and Melbourne and the list of big names returning to the track continues to swell.
The feature is the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington with a host of our best sprinters set to lock horns down the famous Flemington straight including Samaready, Shamexpress and Snitzerland.
The highlight for me however will be the G2 Breeders Classic at Rosehill and it's not hard to see why when the list of competitors includes such top class mares as Streama, Catkins and Steps in Time. Watch the skies though because there could be some rain about which could change the complexion of the race.
The youngsters strut their stuff at Flemington in the Talindert Stakes while at Rosehill they do battle in the Widden Stakes (fillies) and the Canonbury Stakes (colts & geldings). There'll be plenty of competition with the Golden Slipper only seven weeks away.
Meantime some Australian Guineas hopefuls will take centre stage in the C.S. Hayes Stakes and The Vanity, while in Sydney the three-year-old sprinters slug it out in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.
The feature is the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington with a host of our best sprinters set to lock horns down the famous Flemington straight including Samaready, Shamexpress and Snitzerland.
The highlight for me however will be the G2 Breeders Classic at Rosehill and it's not hard to see why when the list of competitors includes such top class mares as Streama, Catkins and Steps in Time. Watch the skies though because there could be some rain about which could change the complexion of the race.
The youngsters strut their stuff at Flemington in the Talindert Stakes while at Rosehill they do battle in the Widden Stakes (fillies) and the Canonbury Stakes (colts & geldings). There'll be plenty of competition with the Golden Slipper only seven weeks away.
Meantime some Australian Guineas hopefuls will take centre stage in the C.S. Hayes Stakes and The Vanity, while in Sydney the three-year-old sprinters slug it out in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Peter Moody had a lean start to 2014 but he seems to be back on track now with a winning treble at Caulfield last Saturday. He followed that up with a winner at Hamilton on Sunday from just the two starters and another at Mornington on Wednesday.
He has quite a few runners at Flemington tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Ducal Castle (Race 1 No. 2), Sino Eagle (Race 3 No. 4), Sensibility (Race 5 No. 3), Are There Any (Race 8 No. 8) and Club Command (Race 9 No. 2).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with scattered showers developing in the afternoon. ***
Current market
*** Thermal Current is an early scratching ***
In the last 11 years, six Australian horses have gone to Royal Ascot and won either the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, the King's Stand Stakes, or both. All of them ran in this race four months prior with five of them winning (Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast & Black Caviar) while Starspangledbanner finished fourth. Not a bad honour roll, especially when you throw in the winners who didn't go to England like Apache Cat, Fastnet Rock, Regimental Gal, Spinning Hill & Testa Rossa. A quality race.
If you take out Black Caviar's three wins in the last three years it's been a graveyard for favourites with just two others winning since 2000. Yet only three winners in the last 20 years have returned double figure odds. 14 of the last 20 paid $6.50 or less including nine of the last 10. Exotic punters take note - no favourite has missed the First Four since 2002.
Samaready won first-up with a big weight last campaign before thrashing a field of quality sprinters in the Moir Stakes (below) that included subsequent three-time G1 winner Buffering. On that form she'll give this an almighty shake and it may pay to forgive her Manikato Stakes run because there was obviously something amiss. Apart from her aborted three-year-old campaign that has been her only failure. Won her only start at this track and distance on debut but hasn't started here in more than two years. Is 1000m too short?
Bernabeu dazzled in a recent 800m Flemington jumpout where he stopped the clock at a sizzling 45.81 and effortlessly beat some handy sprinters including Shamexpress. You can watch it here. His only start at Flemington was on Melbourne Cup Day last November over this distance where he sat on the pace before careering away to win by more than three lengths in slick time. That was against his own age. It's a big step up to open company and Group 1 racing.
Shamexpress goes OK down the straight here at Flemington. He won here on debut and claimed last year's G1 Newmarket Handicap (beating last week's G1 Orr Stakes winner Moment of Change). He also finished second to Buffering in the G1 VRC Sprint Classic last November and third to Nechita in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes the previous Spring. Unfortunately all of those were over the longer 1200m trip. His one run here at 1000m saw him finish sixth behind Black Caviar in this race last year.
Boomwaa and Bugatty are attempting to become the first two-year-old to win the Lightning since 1976. That stat could be misleading though because the last juvenile to even contest the race was Clever Zoe (2nd) in 1993. Obviously they are well in at the w-f-a scale (46kg) but I just feel this might stretch them at this stage of their careers. On the plus side they have recent racing under their belts whereas the top fancies are all first-up.
$21+ the rest.
Locky's Selections
8 Snitzerland
5 Unpretentious
7 Samaready
1 Shamexpress
Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Steps in Time has won the last two renewals of this race. She hasn't won for nearly a year though (beating Streama in the Wiggle last March) so you're taking her on trust. Previously trained by John O'Shea, the mare is now in the capable hands of Joe Pride with connections keen to ensure some continuity in her preparation with O'Shea set to take over from Peter Snowden at Darley in May. I'm going to wait and see how she has returned.
Locky's Selections
5 Unpretentious
7 Samaready
1 Shamexpress
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a chance of showers tonight with areas of rain in the morning easing to isolated showers in the afternoon. ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Steps in Time has won the last two renewals of this race. She hasn't won for nearly a year though (beating Streama in the Wiggle last March) so you're taking her on trust. Previously trained by John O'Shea, the mare is now in the capable hands of Joe Pride with connections keen to ensure some continuity in her preparation with O'Shea set to take over from Peter Snowden at Darley in May. I'm going to wait and see how she has returned.
Streama has had two barrier trials in readiness for this, a similar preparation to stablemate Appearance who destroyed a top notch field in last weekend's G2 Expressway Stakes at Randwick. She was also nominated for the G1 Lightning (1000m) at Flemington so she's obviously shown trainer Guy Walter some dash in those hit-outs. Problem is she's had six goes first-up and is yet to win although having said that she has never missed a place with four seconds and two thirds. Looked good in the Spring with victory in the G1 George Main Satkes and narrow seconds in the G1 Epsom (behind Boban) and G2 Warwick Stakes. Three wins and four placings from eight starts on slow or worse going.
Catkins flies fresh with three wins and a second from four attempts. She met Red Tracer at set weights in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day (below) and just missed. That's close to the strongest mares form in the country and even though that race was over 1600m she's shown herself to be above average at the sprint journeys. Trainer Chris Waller is dominating the Sydney premiership and jockey Hugh Bowman has ridden 9 winners in the last three weeks. Two wins from three goes on affected ground.
Sharnee Rose will have her admirers too because she too has a victory over Red Tracer to her credit last prep, albeit with a 4kg advantage at the weight scale. Has always shown ability and appeared to turn the corner last Spring with back-to-back G3 wins followed by a good fourth in the aforementioned G1 Myer Classic behind Red Tracer, Catkins and Fire Up Fifi at level weights. She'll be juicy odds and isn't the worst.
White Sage is unbeaten in five starts and the stable obviously has wraps on her because she's started favourite every time - four times at odds-on. Safe to say this is easily her biggest test to date but she has responded every time they have raised the bar. Has won twice first-up at 1200m from two attempts in much weaker company (including one here at Rosehill) and she's running the closing sectionals of a quality galloper. Won by five lengths at her only start on a wet track.
Six of the eight runners are first-up so at least Driefontein and Emmalene will have a bit of a fitness edge. Both ran really well at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions Day but this is a much tougher assignment. Driefontein will appreciate the drop in weight too but she still doesn't appear to be well in here at the SW+P compared to Catkins and Streama. Emmalene can run a race fresh but even a cursory examination of her recent runs will show that she has been mixing her form.
I couldn't back Pretty Pins if a gun was held to my head.
Locky's Selections
3 Catkins
1 Streama
6 White Sage
4 Sharnee Rose
1 Streama
6 White Sage
4 Sharnee Rose
Other bets
Dissident (Rosehill Race 5 No. 3) is just 2kg over the minimum here probably due to his consistent but ultimately luckless Spring campaign. Started with consecutive seconds to Eurozone (Rosebud), Va Pensiero (Run to the Rose) and Zoustar (Golden Rose). Followed that with a sixth to Streama (beaten less than two and a half lengths) in the G1 George Main then finished with a fourth in Long John's Caulfield Guineas. Long John came out early today our time to win the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai (below) by more than four lengths! Combine form around horses like that with his good fresh record and I think $3.50 is a good bet.
Pasquinel (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) has won four of his last five including his first two this prep in impressive fashion. The wide barrier is no concern because he will drift back. Trainer Steven O'Dea doesn't have a big team but his strike rate is good - he's had just five runners since the start of the month for two winners and two placegetters. Kirk Matheson has ridden five winners from his last 10 rides including two midweek doubles and the two kilo claim is a big plus. Looking for 1600m now and we should get $4.00 if we're lucky.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Queensland based hoop Damian Browne returned from suspension mid-January and has ridden 7 winners from his last 26 rides at a strike rate of almost 27%. That was enough to convince Darley to give him the call-up in the absence of the injured Kerrin McEvoy and so he's off to Melbourne this weekend.
He hasn't ridden a winner for Peter Snowden this season but has landed three placegetters from just four opportunities. Tomorrow he rides Carillo (Race 3 No. 7) SCR, Earthquake (Race 5 No. 3) 1st $1.55 win / $1.10 place and Mohave (Race 6 No. 1) 10th and he did enjoy good success here during the Spring Carnival.
C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
They didn't set any land speed records early and as such Moment of Change was able to dominate from the front. Eurozone did well to get as close as he did considering he's come from four lengths adrift at the 600m and they've nipped home in 34.62. Shamus Award is a forgive because he just seemed to run out of condition and he did have the arduous task of dragging them up to the leader. Foreteller gets a pass mark from an Australian Cup point of view, Finishing Card did as well as could be expected and netted $10K for connections and Hawkspur was absolutely disgraceful.
* Hoop Michael Walker reported that the gelding did not respond to his urgings in the straight and stated the horse may be a bit dour following his Melbourne Cup campaign. A vet check revealed no abnormalities.
Locky's Selections
Polanski (Caulfield Race 3 No. 1) is thrown in here at the set weights plus penalties because in a handicap he'd be giving at least 15kg to this lot. He looked good in a recent 800m trial at Cranbourne where he sat on the speed and finished on the heels of Oakleigh Plate hopefuls Lankan Rupee and Unpretentious. The stable is talking possibly the Futurity Stakes followed by the Australian Guineas so expect him to be a bit more forward in his prep than he was first-up last time in. One from one here at the 1400m. $3.30. LATE SCRATCHING.
Sizzling (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) has tempted Hugh Bowman to stay in Sydney despite the fact he could easily have ridden both Polanski and Eurozone at Caulfield. He can run a race fresh and a change of stable quite often brings about a change in fortunes. I like the fact that he's drawn the outside in barrier 11 because he's shown in the past he races best when given clear running and they really only have to negotiate only one bend from the 1200m chute start here at Headquarters. Looks to be a race set up for a swooper with Rain Affair, Any Day Will Do, Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad sure to run them along at a good clip. $13. 3rd. $2.80 place. As I predicted it was a swoopers race. I just identified the wrong swooper.
Queensland based hoop Damian Browne returned from suspension mid-January and has ridden 7 winners from his last 26 rides at a strike rate of almost 27%. That was enough to convince Darley to give him the call-up in the absence of the injured Kerrin McEvoy and so he's off to Melbourne this weekend.
He hasn't ridden a winner for Peter Snowden this season but has landed three placegetters from just four opportunities. Tomorrow he rides Carillo (Race 3 No. 7) SCR, Earthquake (Race 5 No. 3) 1st $1.55 win / $1.10 place and Mohave (Race 6 No. 1) 10th and he did enjoy good success here during the Spring Carnival.
Caulfield
They didn't set any land speed records early and as such Moment of Change was able to dominate from the front. Eurozone did well to get as close as he did considering he's come from four lengths adrift at the 600m and they've nipped home in 34.62. Shamus Award is a forgive because he just seemed to run out of condition and he did have the arduous task of dragging them up to the leader. Foreteller gets a pass mark from an Australian Cup point of view, Finishing Card did as well as could be expected and netted $10K for connections and Hawkspur was absolutely disgraceful.
* Hoop Michael Walker reported that the gelding did not respond to his urgings in the straight and stated the horse may be a bit dour following his Melbourne Cup campaign. A vet check revealed no abnormalities.
Locky's Selections
7 Shamus Award 3rd NTD
8 Eurozone 2nd $2.50 place
4 Hawkspur 6th
3 Moment of Change 1st $2.35 win / $1.50 place
Trifecta 3-8-7 $18.40
Exacta 3-8 $9.70
Quinella 8-3 $5.60
8 Eurozone 2nd $2.50 place
4 Hawkspur 6th
3 Moment of Change 1st $2.35 win / $1.50 place
Trifecta 3-8-7 $18.40
Exacta 3-8 $9.70
Quinella 8-3 $5.60
Other bets
Polanski (Caulfield Race 3 No. 1) is thrown in here at the set weights plus penalties because in a handicap he'd be giving at least 15kg to this lot. He looked good in a recent 800m trial at Cranbourne where he sat on the speed and finished on the heels of Oakleigh Plate hopefuls Lankan Rupee and Unpretentious. The stable is talking possibly the Futurity Stakes followed by the Australian Guineas so expect him to be a bit more forward in his prep than he was first-up last time in. One from one here at the 1400m. $3.30. LATE SCRATCHING.
Sizzling (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) has tempted Hugh Bowman to stay in Sydney despite the fact he could easily have ridden both Polanski and Eurozone at Caulfield. He can run a race fresh and a change of stable quite often brings about a change in fortunes. I like the fact that he's drawn the outside in barrier 11 because he's shown in the past he races best when given clear running and they really only have to negotiate only one bend from the 1200m chute start here at Headquarters. Looks to be a race set up for a swooper with Rain Affair, Any Day Will Do, Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad sure to run them along at a good clip. $13. 3rd. $2.80 place. As I predicted it was a swoopers race. I just identified the wrong swooper.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
That's not a real gun.
- John Lennon, New York, 8 December 1980
- John Lennon, New York, 8 December 1980
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