Three winners and a second from my five top selections plus the trifecta in the G1 Lightning Stakes to boot. I just missed the First Four in the two feature races I tipped on but all of my Top 4 selections finished in the first five in both races so the radar is pretty close. Hopefully we can replicate that success this week because it is a superb day of racing.
Eight Group races in Melbourne, four in Sydney and a Listed sprint in Brisbane to top it off. The best race day since the Spring Carnival ended. I can't wait.
The Apollo Stakes headlines proceedings and Gai Waterhouse brings Rain Drum to the races to chase her eighth win in this race. He'll face stiff opposition however in multiple Group 1 winners Boban and Appearance, the consistent Speediness and defending champ Alma's Fury.
The Light Fingers Stakes looks even better with superstar Guelph set to resume against some top notch fillies in G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Sweet Idea, G1 Oaks runner-up Zanbagh, G2 Silver Shadow winner Thump, G2 Ethereal Stakes winner Arabian Gold and Real Surreal who hasn't been seen since her Magic Millions victory more than a year ago.
She's Clean strives to make it back-to-back victories in the Triscay Stakes after beating Appearance last year but it will be no easy task up against Goulburn Cup winner Any Day Will Do and the promising Jolie Bay who is resuming after a six month layoff.
Meantime Guy Walter's talented Toydini resumes in the Southern Cross and will be forced to concede a stack of weight to the talented G2 Queensland Guineas second placegetter Dances on Stars plus Joe Pride's consistent pair That's a Good Idea and Terravista. Albrecht is in the mix too.
I've come up with quite a few I like this weekend now that we've got some decent races to get our teeth stuck into so without further ado let's send some bookies to the poorhouse!
Eight Group races in Melbourne, four in Sydney and a Listed sprint in Brisbane to top it off. The best race day since the Spring Carnival ended. I can't wait.
I'll go into more detail on Melbourne below but let's have a look at Sydney for starters. Keep in mind the Randwick track was rated a Slow 6 as of 4pm today and there are showers forecast for early tomorrow morning.
The Light Fingers Stakes looks even better with superstar Guelph set to resume against some top notch fillies in G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Sweet Idea, G1 Oaks runner-up Zanbagh, G2 Silver Shadow winner Thump, G2 Ethereal Stakes winner Arabian Gold and Real Surreal who hasn't been seen since her Magic Millions victory more than a year ago.
She's Clean strives to make it back-to-back victories in the Triscay Stakes after beating Appearance last year but it will be no easy task up against Goulburn Cup winner Any Day Will Do and the promising Jolie Bay who is resuming after a six month layoff.
Meantime Guy Walter's talented Toydini resumes in the Southern Cross and will be forced to concede a stack of weight to the talented G2 Queensland Guineas second placegetter Dances on Stars plus Joe Pride's consistent pair That's a Good Idea and Terravista. Albrecht is in the mix too.
I've come up with quite a few I like this weekend now that we've got some decent races to get our teeth stuck into so without further ado let's send some bookies to the poorhouse!
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Gai Waterhouse may seem like a no brainer because she trains winners seemingly every day but her strike rate of late has been even more phenomonal than usual. Last weekend she bagged a treble at Rosehill and a winner from just two runners at Wyong. The previous Saturday she trained four winners at Randwick. She also had a winner during the week at Warwick Farm. Always seems to hit form around carnival time - especially at Randwick.
Gai has horses in Sydney and Melbourne tomorrow and her best chances in no particular order appear to be Nayeli (Caulfield Race 7 No. 13), Bull Point (Caulfield Race 6 No. 9), Fiorente (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1), Sweet Idea (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) and Rain Drum (Randwick Race 7 No. 7). Also has runners tonight at Moonee Valley and Canterbury if you just can't wait until tomorrow.
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Of the top fancies those to fare best in the barrier draw were Jabali (3), Chivalry (5) and Nayeli (9). Rubick (10), Nostradamus (11) and Earthquake (15) weren't as fortunate.
Earthquake showed a devastating turn of foot last time out in the Prelude when she put three lengths on them in just a couple of strides halfway down the running. She's had a "softer" lead in to this than Rubick who really had to pull out all the stops and that could be crucial if this turns into a driving finish. Horror draw though.
Rubick is undefeated too and showed a lot of courage winning last time out. He stepped away slowly and was hunted up to find the lead in a fast run race and still managed to kick away on straightening and win. Everything else that sat on the speed dropped out. The concern is how much did that gutbuster take out of him especially given it was a stinking hot day in Melbourne? The barrier isn't as bad as it looks. Trainer Gerald Ryan has been working this bloke with older horses and says he's been sitting off them and blowing past them like they're tied to the fence. He's keen to see him ridden with a sit and the "middle draw" gives him the chance to do that tomorrow.
Nayeli is also unbeaten but she is probably the forgotten horse here because she's dodged the traditional lead-up races in the Preview and the Prelude. On debut she beat Peggy Jean and that filly came out at her next start to win beating Boomwaa. Next start she beat Bugatty who came out at his next start to finish 8th beaten five lengths behind Snitzerland in last week's G1 Lightning Stakes. She's not the worst.
Nostradamus faced the same problem in the same race and he also caught the eye with his barnstorming finish. He too may have been flattered by the frantic early tempo. Probably would have preferred to be closer because he did lead all the way to win on debut but from the wide gate he faces a similar dilemma tomorrow.
Jabali was good in the Prelude behind Rubick. He was closing late and gives the indication the step up to 1200m will suit. He didn't get the soft run in transit that Nostradamus and Chivalry got (granted they had no choice from wide barriers) but still managed to run on from better than midfield off a hot tempo. Drawn to get the gun run.
The rest are all $34+ and I think the best roughie if you're going wide in your exotics is Stratum Star.
Locky's Selections
2 Rubick
6 Jabali
12 Earthquake
13 Nayeli
6 Jabali
12 Earthquake
13 Nayeli
Futurity Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a bad race for bookies of late with the last four favourites all saluting - three at odds on. Suffer in your jocks bagmen, no sympathy here. In fact no winner has returned more than $9 since the roughie Rustic Dream surprised everyone at $16 in 1999.
I think the three-year-old can dominate here because he does get a three and a half kilo pull in the weights and the older horses don't look to be world beaters.
Bull Point looked good first-up in the G3 Manfred Stakes when he easily took care of the likes of Prince Harada and The Quarterback who filled the placings last Saturday behind the talented Hucklebuck in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes at Flemington. Prior to that he missed the kick and flashed home from near last to grab third in the G1 Golden Rose behind Zoustar and that form continues to stack up.
Polanski has had more skin problems than "The Phantom of the Opera" and Seal combined and has been scratched twice in consecutive weeks as a result. I liked him two weeks ago first-up here at 1400m against his own age at set weights but I fear a Group 1 at w-f-a may be a bridge too far at this stage of his campaign. I am however keen to follow him further down the track at the staying trips provided he shows tomorrow he's returned in good order.
Moment of Change is unbeaten in three goes here at the Caulfield 1400m including two G1's - the Rupert Clarke Stakes and his last start victory in the Orr Stakes. Seven of the last 11 winners have come via the Orr Stakes and three completed the double including two in the last four years - Typhoon Tracy (2010) & All Too Hard (2013). Does he get a soft lead again?
Lidari had an average first preparation in this country last Autumn and was spelled but he returned in breathtaking fashion in August when he came from near last to win over this course. He then proved it was no fluke when he finished third at his next start in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley behind Fiorente! Was due to start next in the G1 Epsom but was scratched after injuring himself on the morning of the race. Will probably get back so could the tempo of the race be a problem?
Sizzling is the interesting runner because he was also nominated for the G2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney but trainer Chris Waller has elected to bring him to Melbourne. He resumed well when a closing third behind Appearance in the G2 Expressway Stakes in his first run for the new stable. He has however done his best racing in the past when three or more runs into a prep (11:4-3-0) and his second-up record is average (5:1-1-0).
Smokin' Joey won a G3 at Flemington on Derby Day then backed up a week later and just missed in the G1 Emirates behind Boban (below). He's always shown ability and trainer Wez Hunter appears to have found the key to him since taking over the training duties last Spring. Won an 800m trial at Sandown late last month in preparation for this - beating Speediness in the process.
Locky's Selections
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a bad race for bookies of late with the last four favourites all saluting - three at odds on. Suffer in your jocks bagmen, no sympathy here. In fact no winner has returned more than $9 since the roughie Rustic Dream surprised everyone at $16 in 1999.
I think the three-year-old can dominate here because he does get a three and a half kilo pull in the weights and the older horses don't look to be world beaters.
Bull Point looked good first-up in the G3 Manfred Stakes when he easily took care of the likes of Prince Harada and The Quarterback who filled the placings last Saturday behind the talented Hucklebuck in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes at Flemington. Prior to that he missed the kick and flashed home from near last to grab third in the G1 Golden Rose behind Zoustar and that form continues to stack up.
Polanski has had more skin problems than "The Phantom of the Opera" and Seal combined and has been scratched twice in consecutive weeks as a result. I liked him two weeks ago first-up here at 1400m against his own age at set weights but I fear a Group 1 at w-f-a may be a bridge too far at this stage of his campaign. I am however keen to follow him further down the track at the staying trips provided he shows tomorrow he's returned in good order.
Moment of Change is unbeaten in three goes here at the Caulfield 1400m including two G1's - the Rupert Clarke Stakes and his last start victory in the Orr Stakes. Seven of the last 11 winners have come via the Orr Stakes and three completed the double including two in the last four years - Typhoon Tracy (2010) & All Too Hard (2013). Does he get a soft lead again?
Lidari had an average first preparation in this country last Autumn and was spelled but he returned in breathtaking fashion in August when he came from near last to win over this course. He then proved it was no fluke when he finished third at his next start in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley behind Fiorente! Was due to start next in the G1 Epsom but was scratched after injuring himself on the morning of the race. Will probably get back so could the tempo of the race be a problem?
Sizzling is the interesting runner because he was also nominated for the G2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney but trainer Chris Waller has elected to bring him to Melbourne. He resumed well when a closing third behind Appearance in the G2 Expressway Stakes in his first run for the new stable. He has however done his best racing in the past when three or more runs into a prep (11:4-3-0) and his second-up record is average (5:1-1-0).
Smokin' Joey won a G3 at Flemington on Derby Day then backed up a week later and just missed in the G1 Emirates behind Boban (below). He's always shown ability and trainer Wez Hunter appears to have found the key to him since taking over the training duties last Spring. Won an 800m trial at Sandown late last month in preparation for this - beating Speediness in the process.
Locky's Selections
9 Bull Point
2 Moment of Change
7 Lidari
5 Smokin' Joey
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a good race for bookies in recent years with nine of the last 12 winners returning $10 or more. It's taken two good horses to defy the pattern - the only favourites to have won in that same time frame were Fastnet Rock and Weekend Hussler. The average winning price has been $15. Barriers don't seem to be too much of a concern. Swiss Ace (2009) and Undue (2007) both won from the extreme outside gate. Three winners carried 57kg and five carried 55.5kg or more. Weight is not so much a factor in sprint racing.
Looks like there'll be plenty of speed with Minaj, Gregers, Brilliant Bisc, Kuroshio, Flamberge, Happy Galaxy, Vatican, First Command, General Truce and Lankan Rupee all capable of pushing forward. It could set it up for the backmarkers.
Lankan Rupee has won four from five since being gelded including a stirring victory on VRC Oaks Day last November over last weekend's G1 Lightning Stakes winner Snitzerland. That form looks pretty good now. Thrashed them in the G2 Rubiton Stakes first-up and went more than a second quicker than Earthquake and Rubick over the same course on the same day. Drawn to get a good run in transit.
Knoydart bolted in at Mornington last start, coming from well back on a track that was a leaders highway. He's another who has really turned the corner since being gelded but he has to make the step up to G1 company whereas a few of the others have been there before. Will by flying late. Is the inside barrier ideal for a horse who will get back? He may find traffic.
Shamal Wind meets Spirit of Boom a kilo worse off for losing to him over this course and distance during the Spring so at the weights she couldn't beat him here. Did come from last to win here last start but I'm starting to wonder if she isn't just a fresh mare because four of her five wins have come first-up and she's just one from three second-up. Second last in this race last year when in commission. Could end up buried back on the fence from that gate.
Bel Sprinter won the G1 Galaxy at Rosehill last March (below) in scintillating fashion and gave Snitzerland windburn in the process. He was first-up over 1100m and was coming off three Spring Carnival failures. Sound familiar? On the downside his five runs since the Galaxy haven't yielded a win but all were over 1200m and not all were terrible. Third to Black Caviar in the G1 TJ Smith, second to Lucky Nine in the G1 International Sprint in Singapore and only a length behind Buffering in the G1 Manikato Stakes. Middle barrier suits because he doesn't seem to race well when drawn inside. He's five from six first-up.
Iconic gets a two kilo swing from Lankan Rupee following his near four length second to that horse last start. He was the best closer in that race but he is yet to win beyond 1000m. Breeding buffs take note that he shares the same sire as Black Caviar and their mothers are half-sisters. Drawn the car park.
Dystopia is another of the many horses tackling this race first-up after a spell. Her fresh record is only fair (7:2-2-1) and she's had two goes here at Caulfield for just the one second and the stats show that four of her six wins were at 1200-1300m. She'll probably need the run and they might be too zippy for her at the 1100m. She has an inside barrier and gets back in her races so she'll need luck.
Spirit of Boom had a consistent Spring Carnival. He followed narrow placings in the G2 The Shorts and the G2 Gilgai Stakes with victory here on Caulfield Cup Day in the G2 Caulfield Sprint over this exact course. Second to Fontelina in the G2 down the straight at Flemington on Derby Day before rounding off his campaign with a luckless fourth to Buffering in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes in Perth. He has never missed a place in four attempts at the 1100m. Of some concern is just the one win from 10 first-up attempts but he has placed six times including a third in this race last year (below). Tricky gate.
Gregers won't know hereself with 50kg because she's carried at least 54.5kg in seven of her eight career starts. Has won four from eight from 1000m to 1400m and was stakes placed during the Spring in the G1 Thousand Guineas and G2 Moonee Valley Classic. Finished fourth on this day last year in Miracles of Life's Blue Diamond. Unbeaten in two first-up runs. Might have to work to get across from that draw though.
2 Moment of Change
7 Lidari
5 Smokin' Joey
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a good race for bookies in recent years with nine of the last 12 winners returning $10 or more. It's taken two good horses to defy the pattern - the only favourites to have won in that same time frame were Fastnet Rock and Weekend Hussler. The average winning price has been $15. Barriers don't seem to be too much of a concern. Swiss Ace (2009) and Undue (2007) both won from the extreme outside gate. Three winners carried 57kg and five carried 55.5kg or more. Weight is not so much a factor in sprint racing.
Looks like there'll be plenty of speed with Minaj, Gregers, Brilliant Bisc, Kuroshio, Flamberge, Happy Galaxy, Vatican, First Command, General Truce and Lankan Rupee all capable of pushing forward. It could set it up for the backmarkers.
Lankan Rupee has won four from five since being gelded including a stirring victory on VRC Oaks Day last November over last weekend's G1 Lightning Stakes winner Snitzerland. That form looks pretty good now. Thrashed them in the G2 Rubiton Stakes first-up and went more than a second quicker than Earthquake and Rubick over the same course on the same day. Drawn to get a good run in transit.
Knoydart bolted in at Mornington last start, coming from well back on a track that was a leaders highway. He's another who has really turned the corner since being gelded but he has to make the step up to G1 company whereas a few of the others have been there before. Will by flying late. Is the inside barrier ideal for a horse who will get back? He may find traffic.
Shamal Wind meets Spirit of Boom a kilo worse off for losing to him over this course and distance during the Spring so at the weights she couldn't beat him here. Did come from last to win here last start but I'm starting to wonder if she isn't just a fresh mare because four of her five wins have come first-up and she's just one from three second-up. Second last in this race last year when in commission. Could end up buried back on the fence from that gate.
Bel Sprinter won the G1 Galaxy at Rosehill last March (below) in scintillating fashion and gave Snitzerland windburn in the process. He was first-up over 1100m and was coming off three Spring Carnival failures. Sound familiar? On the downside his five runs since the Galaxy haven't yielded a win but all were over 1200m and not all were terrible. Third to Black Caviar in the G1 TJ Smith, second to Lucky Nine in the G1 International Sprint in Singapore and only a length behind Buffering in the G1 Manikato Stakes. Middle barrier suits because he doesn't seem to race well when drawn inside. He's five from six first-up.
Iconic gets a two kilo swing from Lankan Rupee following his near four length second to that horse last start. He was the best closer in that race but he is yet to win beyond 1000m. Breeding buffs take note that he shares the same sire as Black Caviar and their mothers are half-sisters. Drawn the car park.
Dystopia is another of the many horses tackling this race first-up after a spell. Her fresh record is only fair (7:2-2-1) and she's had two goes here at Caulfield for just the one second and the stats show that four of her six wins were at 1200-1300m. She'll probably need the run and they might be too zippy for her at the 1100m. She has an inside barrier and gets back in her races so she'll need luck.
Spirit of Boom had a consistent Spring Carnival. He followed narrow placings in the G2 The Shorts and the G2 Gilgai Stakes with victory here on Caulfield Cup Day in the G2 Caulfield Sprint over this exact course. Second to Fontelina in the G2 down the straight at Flemington on Derby Day before rounding off his campaign with a luckless fourth to Buffering in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes in Perth. He has never missed a place in four attempts at the 1100m. Of some concern is just the one win from 10 first-up attempts but he has placed six times including a third in this race last year (below). Tricky gate.
Locky's Selections
3 Lankan Rupee
1 Bel Sprinter
2 Spirit of Boom
9 Knoydart
Marianne (Caulfield Race 3 No. 4) was spelled after failing on debut last March when well in commission. Resumed in August and bolted in her maiden at Cranbourne first-up on a bog track before coming straight to town to win at Caulfield over this course beating Critical Angel. That filly has since been stakes placed behind Solicit in last weekend's G3 Vanity at Flemington. Finished her Spring campaign by splitting Gregers and Politeness in the G2 Tranquil Star again here at Caulfield over 1400m. Looked great first-up a fortnight ago rattling home from the tail to just miss the in-form Spirits Dance in the G3 Kevin Hayes Stakes. That's three starts here at The Heath for a win and two seconds - both placings being in Group races. Gets a nice pull in the weights here from the top three. $2.80 was bet but it didn't last.
Foreteller (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) takes on some "handy" types here in the last two Melbourne Cup winners Fiorente and Green Moon but he has a run under his belt whereas they do not. Second-up last prep he jumped up in distance to beat Puissance de Lune (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Resumed in great fashion when he stormed home into fourth behind Moment of Change in the Orr Stakes off a moderate tempo. Pace should be genuine with Star Rolling to keep Mourayan honest in front. Jockey "Froggy" Newitt is in good touch too. In the past fortnight he's ridden winners at Caulfied, Hobart, Mornington, Launceston & Bendigo. $6.50.
1 Bel Sprinter
2 Spirit of Boom
9 Knoydart
Other bets
Marianne (Caulfield Race 3 No. 4) was spelled after failing on debut last March when well in commission. Resumed in August and bolted in her maiden at Cranbourne first-up on a bog track before coming straight to town to win at Caulfield over this course beating Critical Angel. That filly has since been stakes placed behind Solicit in last weekend's G3 Vanity at Flemington. Finished her Spring campaign by splitting Gregers and Politeness in the G2 Tranquil Star again here at Caulfield over 1400m. Looked great first-up a fortnight ago rattling home from the tail to just miss the in-form Spirits Dance in the G3 Kevin Hayes Stakes. That's three starts here at The Heath for a win and two seconds - both placings being in Group races. Gets a nice pull in the weights here from the top three. $2.80 was bet but it didn't last.
Foreteller (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) takes on some "handy" types here in the last two Melbourne Cup winners Fiorente and Green Moon but he has a run under his belt whereas they do not. Second-up last prep he jumped up in distance to beat Puissance de Lune (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Resumed in great fashion when he stormed home into fourth behind Moment of Change in the Orr Stakes off a moderate tempo. Pace should be genuine with Star Rolling to keep Mourayan honest in front. Jockey "Froggy" Newitt is in good touch too. In the past fortnight he's ridden winners at Caulfied, Hobart, Mornington, Launceston & Bendigo. $6.50.
Monton (Randwick Race 2 No. 1) has a stack of weight but he is taking on some pretty average performers. Four of his six opponents haven't won a race in their last seven starts whereas he is in great form and probably should have won his last three after clipping heels early in the home straight last start and not seeing daylight until inside the 200m only to just miss in a driving finish. The claim for apprentice Sam Clipperton helps and he does know the horse well having partnered him in the aforementioned last three starts. He can be handy in a small field from the good gate. $3.50.
Sweet Idea (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) meets a red hot field as mentioned in my introduction but she is up and running whereas most of these are first-up. It means taking on the hotpot Guelph but her only defeat last Spring was when fresh and she has a big campaign ahead so I have to wonder if she'll be fully screwed down for the 1200m. Zanbagh, Gypsy Diamond and Arabian Gold are coming off arduous Oaks campaigns and will probably need the run. Real Surreal is returning from a year long injury layoff so I can't touch her and at the set weights Sweet Idea has Estonian Princess and Thump covered on past form. Never out of a place in nine starts with four wins and five placings including a third in the G1 Golden Slipper (below) beating home Guelph and seconds in the G2 Silver Shadow and the Magic Millions. She picks herself. $5.00.
Any Day Will Do (Randwick Race 8 No. 4) ran out of her skin first-up when just over three lengths behind Appearance in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Prior to that she'd strung three on end last prep culminating in victory in the Goulburn Cup. She'll appreciate getting away from weight-for-age and back to fillies and mares grade and she looks well weighted here on the minimum. Won her only start on a rain affected surface. $8.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Dissident (Rosehill Race 5 No. 3) is just 2kg over the minimum here probably due to his consistent but ultimately luckless Spring campaign. Started with consecutive seconds to Eurozone (Rosebud), Va Pensiero (Run to the Rose) and Zoustar (Golden Rose). Followed that with a sixth to Streama (beaten less than two and a half lengths) in the G1 George Main then finished with a fourth in Long John's Caulfield Guineas. Long John came out early today our time to win the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai (below) by more than four lengths! Combine form around horses like that with his good fresh record and I think $3.50 is a good bet. 2nd. $1.80 place. Was beaten by a smart one.
Solicit (Flemington Race 5 No. 1) looks well in here at level weights because under handicap conditions she'd be giving at least four kilos to this lot. First-up last prep she won a maiden at Ballarat beating Suavito who would have four more starts in the Spring for two wins, a second to Dothraki on Emirates Stakes Day and a third to May's Dream on Rupert Clarke Stakes Day. Three goes here at Flemington and although she hasn't won she has notched thirds in big races like the Edward Manifold, the Wakeful and the Oaks. Looks likely to get the best run in transit from the inside draw. Backable at $4.20. 1st $2.90 win / $1.20 place. Smashed in the betting and won like a good thing should.
Pasquinel (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) has won four of his last five including his first two this prep in impressive fashion. The wide barrier is no concern because he will drift back. Trainer Steven O'Dea doesn't have a big team but his strike rate is good - he's had just five runners since the start of the month for two winners and two placegetters. Kirk Matheson has ridden five winners from his last 10 rides including two midweek doubles and the two kilo claim is a big plus. Looking for 1600m now and we should get $4.00 if we're lucky. 5th. Jockey Kirk Matheson told stewards the horse was not suited by the moderate tempo and the way the race developed into a sprint home.
Peter Moody had a lean start to 2014 but he seems to be back on track now with a winning treble at Caulfield last Saturday. He followed that up with a winner at Hamilton on Sunday from just the two starters and another at Mornington on Wednesday.
He has quite a few runners at Flemington tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Ducal Castle (Race 1 No. 2) 4th, Sino Eagle (Race 3 No. 4) 1st $5.00 win / $1.80 place, Sensibility (Race 5 No. 3) 5th, Are There Any (Race 8 No. 8) 1st $4.10 win / $1.60 place and Club Command (Race 9 No. 2) 9th.
Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)
Locky's Selections
He has quite a few runners at Flemington tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Ducal Castle (Race 1 No. 2) 4th, Sino Eagle (Race 3 No. 4) 1st $5.00 win / $1.80 place, Sensibility (Race 5 No. 3) 5th, Are There Any (Race 8 No. 8) 1st $4.10 win / $1.60 place and Club Command (Race 9 No. 2) 9th.
Flemington
Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)
The cream rose to the top here with the three genuine Group 1 horses running the trifecta (below). Snitzerland looks likely to head back to Sydney and defend her crown in the G2 Challenge Stakes at Randwick mid next month. That's the race last year where she broke the track record. Shamexpress looked like he might challenge the winner and the extra 200m of the Newmarket looks ideal. You could say the same for Samaready. Pago Rock and Unpretentious will also be suited getting back to handicap conditions in the Newmarket. Nash Rawiller reported that Bernabeu didn't handle the sticky surface that resulted following the brief shower just prior to the race.
Locky's Selections
8 Snitzerland 1st $5.00 win / $1.90 place
5 Unpretentious 5th
7 Samaready 3rd $1.60 place
1 Shamexpress 2nd $2.40 place
Trifecta 8-1-7 $78.60
Exacta 8-1 $30.50
Quinella 1-8 $19.60
Any 2 8-1 $5.70
Any 2 8-7 $2.80
Any 2 1-7 $5.10
Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)
5 Unpretentious 5th
7 Samaready 3rd $1.60 place
1 Shamexpress 2nd $2.40 place
Trifecta 8-1-7 $78.60
Exacta 8-1 $30.50
Quinella 1-8 $19.60
Any 2 8-1 $5.70
Any 2 8-7 $2.80
Any 2 1-7 $5.10
Rosehill
Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)
I thought halfway down the straight that Steps in Time was going to make it three in a row but a supremely confident Hugh Bowman (below right) got there just in time on Catkins riding hands and heels. Follow the first two because they've obviously returned in good order. White Sage battled away gamely and Sharnee Rose will win a nice G3 race somewhere this Autumn. Streama was only fair and a post-race vet exam revealed no abnormalities.
Locky's Selections
3 Catkins 1st $3.90 win / $1.90 place
1 Streama 5th
6 White Sage 3rd NTD
4 Sharnee Rose 4th
Other bets
1 Streama 5th
6 White Sage 3rd NTD
4 Sharnee Rose 4th
Other bets
Dissident (Rosehill Race 5 No. 3) is just 2kg over the minimum here probably due to his consistent but ultimately luckless Spring campaign. Started with consecutive seconds to Eurozone (Rosebud), Va Pensiero (Run to the Rose) and Zoustar (Golden Rose). Followed that with a sixth to Streama (beaten less than two and a half lengths) in the G1 George Main then finished with a fourth in Long John's Caulfield Guineas. Long John came out early today our time to win the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai (below) by more than four lengths! Combine form around horses like that with his good fresh record and I think $3.50 is a good bet. 2nd. $1.80 place. Was beaten by a smart one.
Pasquinel (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) has won four of his last five including his first two this prep in impressive fashion. The wide barrier is no concern because he will drift back. Trainer Steven O'Dea doesn't have a big team but his strike rate is good - he's had just five runners since the start of the month for two winners and two placegetters. Kirk Matheson has ridden five winners from his last 10 rides including two midweek doubles and the two kilo claim is a big plus. Looking for 1600m now and we should get $4.00 if we're lucky. 5th. Jockey Kirk Matheson told stewards the horse was not suited by the moderate tempo and the way the race developed into a sprint home.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Awesome! I've never flown in a chopper before.
- Stevie Ray Vaughan, Wisconsin, 27 August 1990
- Stevie Ray Vaughan, Wisconsin, 27 August 1990
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