Thursday, 23 January 2014

Australia Day long weekend preview

First post since Xmas and I would have preferred a stronger meeting but I have to resume sometime.

I'm going to ignore the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight because if that is a Group 2 weight-for-age race for almost a quarter of a million dollars in prizemoney I'll give it up.

The babies are stepping out at Caulfield tomorrow hoping to qualify for next month's $1M Blue Diamond Stakes. I'll take a peek at those races but there isn't a lot of exposed form.

The stayers do battle at Royal Randwick in the Australia Day Cup. Most of the runners will be horses that began their life in Europe before being shipped off to Australia. How fitting.


LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?


Since the start of the year Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra have produced 10 winners from 36 starters including doubles at Caulfield, Flemington and Werribee.

Tonight they have Miss Maggiebeel entered at Moonee Valley (Race 7 No. 10) and they have just the one runner again tomorrow at Caulfield in Whistle Baby (Race 5 No. 5).


Caulfield




*** As of 11.30am today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for the chance of  shower tomorrow morning before clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***


Blue Diamond Preview - Fillies (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)



***  There are no early scratchings ***

I like Avanti here at each-way odds. The stable obviously knew something before her debut win because she was well tried at Seymour that day to beat a short priced favourite. The overall time was good too being just a tick outside that run over the same distance later in the day by the older horses. Her sire Street Cry is on fire this season in the two-year-old ranks with four winners from just eight starters.

Eloping is another who was backed off the map on debut. The third horse in that race (who she beat by almost eight lengths) has subsequently won.

Golconda looked good before going for a spell. Got too far back behind Magic Millions runner-up Oakleigh Girl on debut. Came from 11th of 13 to finish fourth beaten less than three lengths in a race where they clocked 32.89 for the final 600m. Next start came out and blitzed them in the Merson Cooper. Has to give them all 2.5kg though under the conditions.

Keep an eye out for any moves in the market for Team Hawkes first starter London Lolly.

Locky's Selections

4 Avanti
5 Eloping
1 Golconda
7 London Lolly


Blue Diamond Preview - Colts & Geldings (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)


***  There are no early scratchings ***

Mohave was good on debut when 2nd in the Breeders and the horse that finished 3rd came out to win his next race, beating Unencumbered, the subsequent Magic Millions winner.

Tudor chased home the highly regarded Eloping at his first start and had almost three lengths on Jarklin back in third who went on to win his next start.

Cornrow raced well on debut on Cox Plate Day to be beaten half a length into third in the Inglis Banner. Finished a length in front of Boomwaa who would come out a fortnight later and claim the Maribyrnong Plate.

Ducal Castle should be better for his first run because he did a few things wrong and I think the blinkers going on will be a big plus.

Locky's Selections

2 Mohave
1 Cornrow
5 Tudor
3 Ducal Castle

Other bets

Spending (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) was slowly away last start and badly held up for most of the straight but still managed to finish second beaten about a quarter of a length. Looks well placed here in a similar race.

I will be accused of sentimentality here because I'm a Seahawks fan and they've made it to the Super Bowl but I can't get past the last start run of Streets of Seattle (Caulfield Race 7 No. 3). Over an unsuitable distance second-up in a much stronger race she came from near last to snatch third at any old price. I think she is great each-way value at around $18 and I expect to see her closer to the lead tomorrow from the good draw. Not badly in with the three kilo claim.

Brigantin (Randwick Race 6 No. 1) has had two runs for Chris Waller now and he looks ready to win after a solid second in the Gosford Cup. Meets Midsummer Sun two kilos better off for that narrow defeat. First start in this country he ran 3rd in the Geelong Cup (2012) then he was sidelined for a year with a pastern injury. Forget his last campaign as he simply didn't come up and he is in a new yard now.

LOOKING BACK



First post for more than a month.



QUOTE OF THE DAY


It never rains when you want it to.
-  Joan of Arc, Rouen, 30 May 1431

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