Foul weather in Brisbane means another rain affected track so I'm going to take a look at the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide this weekend instead.
For the second time in a fortnight they host a $1M feature.
For the second time in a fortnight they host a $1M feature.
Who's Hot?
Regan Bayliss rode five winners at Geelong on Tuesday and had a double at Pakenham on Thursday. All told he's ridden 14 winners in the last 10 days.
He has just the four rides at Morphettville tomorrow - Phelps Glory (Race 2 No. 4), Miss Strathallan (Race 4 No. 6), Tidy Prophet (Race 5 No. 5) and Faatinah (Race 7 No. 3).
* He was involved in a fall today so he may not ride tomorrow.
* He was involved in a fall today so he may not ride tomorrow.
MORPHETTVILLE
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***
The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)
Current Sportsbet market
*** Karlovasi and Viddora are early scratchings ***
Black Heart Bart won this race last year (below) and has won four G1's since so he looks well placed with just 59kg here. Barrier two looks attractive given he's a type who likes to race handy to the speed. How can you knock a horse who has had 13 top two finishes in his last 14 starts? Four wins and three seconds from eight runs at 1200m.
Secret Agenda won at this track and distance last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes and she draws a much better barrier this time. Three of the last seven winners have followed the same path with two completing the double. The stable will be hoping the forecast showers materialise because she loves the sting out of the ground.
Vega Magic is in a new stable. Previously trained in W.A. he was the winner of nine of 14 in Perth and this is clearly his pet trip (10:7-1-1). His only "failure" at 1200m was a one and a half length seventh to Takedown in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot late last year. He's only been successful once in four first-up runs but did place twice and is well drawn.
Secret Agenda won at this track and distance last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes and she draws a much better barrier this time. Three of the last seven winners have followed the same path with two completing the double. The stable will be hoping the forecast showers materialise because she loves the sting out of the ground.
Vega Magic is in a new stable. Previously trained in W.A. he was the winner of nine of 14 in Perth and this is clearly his pet trip (10:7-1-1). His only "failure" at 1200m was a one and a half length seventh to Takedown in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot late last year. He's only been successful once in four first-up runs but did place twice and is well drawn.
Malaguerra is the only horse other than Winx to have beaten Black Heart Bart in the last eight months and jockey Ben Melham has won this race twice in the last four years. He's had a seven week break between runs and he does perform very well fresh (6:5-1-0) plus he has won a G1 Darley Classic (below) and a G1 B.T.C. Cup at this distance. Expect him to be stalking the leaders and pounce at the 200m.
They are the only four runners under $21 at time of publication but five of the last 10 winners paid $21 - $41.
They are the only four runners under $21 at time of publication but five of the last 10 winners paid $21 - $41.
Illustrious Lad has drawn the car park but he was only three quarters of a length off Terravista first-up in a G1 Lightning Stakes (below) four starts back. He's a two-time winner here including one at this trip and he closed well last start in the G3 Irwin Stakes. Santa Ana Lane comes here via the Wagga Town Plate which is an unorthodox preparation to say the least. Having said that he did lump 61kg in that race and came from 15th of 16 at the 400m to win by more than two lengths. First Among Equals has won five from eight at 1200m and has two wins and two placings from four second-up appearances but barrier 16 makes it tough. Incredibly jockey Luke Nolen (of Black Caviar fame) has just one G1 victory to his name in the last three years. Lucky Liberty gets a run thanks to the scratchings and he has five wins and a third from six runs at 1200m. He's unbeaten second-up the wide gate shouldn't be a concern given he'll get back to the second half of the field.
Rageese has the Weir factor and that stable has had two winners and two placegetters in this race from just eight starters. In the past his best runs have been three or four runs into a campaign when he gets out to 1400m so they might be a bit sharp for him here. Kaepernick just missed last start in the G3 McKay Stakes and meets the winner 5kg better off here. He likes to get back in his races and storm home so he'll need luck but with plenty of pace engaged here it could be set up for him. Sweet Sherry is a three-time winner at 1200m including her last start victory in the G2 Euclase Stakes at this track and trip. She drops 2kg from that run and draws barrier three. Missrock has chased home Secret Agenda at her last two starts and meets her 3kg better off in this race. I can't see why one is four times the price of the other especially given this filly didn't have a lot of luck last start.
Faatinah has had three starts at this track and distance for two wins and jockey Regan Bayliss could win on a rocking horse at the moment. He wasn't beaten far last start and meets the winner 2.5kg better off here. If he can reproduce the run that saw him finish second in a G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) he'll give this a shake. Hey Doc has drawn wide but he is an on pace type so I expect he should be able to get across without burning too much petrol and they do only have to negotiate one turn. I'm prepared to be forgiving of his last run in the G1 Doncaster Mile given it was a Heavy 8. He's friendless in the market however ($16 out to $34). Zebulon has had just two races in the last 27 months but one of them was a four length win in the Listed City of Adelaide Handicap. He's missed a lot of racing due to an ongoing tendon problem but on his day he is quite capable. Both his wins were at 1400m though. Bassett has drawn horribly but he won three on the trot before an unlucky sixth last start in the G3 McKay Stakes when he didn't have a lot of luck. Trainer Mick Price has won this race twice before and he did win the other $1M G1 here a fortnight ago.
Riziz is a seven time winner at Morphettville (six at this distance) and he's won his last two in a row. He hasn't missed a top four finish in six runs this prep and is drawn to get a good run just behind the pacemakers. At $81 he's my best longshot four wider exotics.
BEST
2. Malaguerra
DANGER
1. Black Heart Bart
6. Secret Agenda
7. Vega Magic
3. Faatinah
19. Sweet Sherry
12. Riziz
12. Riziz
OTHER BETS
Brook Road (Doomben Race 5 No. 1) has been the beneficiary of trainer Kris Lees decision to nominate but not to accept with stablemate Felines in this race. It means that instead of having to give away a lot of weight to most of her rivals she's going to meet them just 1kg over the minimum with this compressed weight scale. At her one run at Doomben she won a Listed race over this trip and she handles the wet. Juicy odds.
Good punting!
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