Friday, 12 May 2017

G1 Doomben 10,000 Day - 13.05.2017

It's been run as a handicap and at w-f-a. It's been run at six furlongs, seven furlongs and 1350m. It's been run down the straight six and it's been run on the circle. And it's had several different names.

It can only be the G1 Doomben 10,000 aka the Doomben Newmarket Handicap aka the Rothmans 100,000 aka the Castlemaine 10,0000 aka the Treasury Casino 10,000 aka the UBET Doomben 10,000.

Who's Hot? 


Kris Lees is flying at the moment with 13 winners in the last three weeks.

He has a number of runners at Scone tomorrow.


DOOMBEN




*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

The Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)


Current Sportsbet market

 *** Sooboog is an early scratching ***

Expect a mad dash to the first corner because we have El Divino (11), Upstart Pride (12), In Her Time (13), Fell Swoop (14) and Takedown (15) all drawn double figure gates and all likely to press forward. The stablemates Redzel (3) and Russian Revolution (5) will also try to take advantage of their good gates too.

Russian Revolution has only been beaten twice and they were G1 races. He meets Redzel 2kg worse off than the last time they met in the G1 Galaxy (below) when he was a narrow victor. He maps really well here and the stable does target this Carnival and has had good success in the past. He's had a six week freshen-up and a good trial win in readiness for this assignment.



Redzel has only won once beyond 1100m and that was last start when he go a soft run in front on a leader dominated track. Having said that his form in his last three preps has been outstanding with nine top two placings from his last 11 runs including five wins from his last nine starts. Regular rider Kerrin McEvoy stays solid with the stablemate Russian Revolution - once again. Drawn well and handles all surfaces.

Music Magnate won this race last year (below) when it was run at 1350m but I actually think 1200m is his best distance (7:4-2-1). He's one of only four horses in this race to have won here previously and it is notorious as been a tricky circuit. He did lead last start but only because it was a small field and no-one else wanted to. I expect he'll take a sit here from the middle barrier with so much speed in the race.



Fell Swoop has won just one race in the last 20 months but it was in the G2 Victory Stakes at this track and trip at this time last year. He's also run placings in a G1 Oakleigh Plate, a G1 Manikato Stakes, a G1 Darley Classic and the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (twice).  He's going to have to work hard from that barrier though and that bothers me.

Everything else is at double figure odds.

Derryn has won two of his last three and he wasn't terrible in his other run when eighth to Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. From  that gate he can sit off speed and come with a sprint and that looks like how this race will play out. Start Wondering has great form in N.Z. with two wins and two seconds at G1 level at his last four starts. He's four from six fresh and goes well at the trip (5:3-1-0). Counterattack handles the sting out of the ground and has won here before. He should get a lovely trail from barrier two. 




Japonisme gets the inside gate here but he hasn't beaten many home in his last two runs. He did finish third on this day last year at this track and distance in the G1 BTC Cup. Takedown has drawn horribly here and his two runs this prep have been poor. Wet tracks have been blamed for both failures but unfortunately he's going to cop another slow surface. Rebel Dane has looked well past his best at his two runs back this campaign but if they do go mad in front he is just the type who could come steaming home from last. In Her Time won four in a row at the start of her last prep before and then wasn't far away at G1 level. She hasn't raced since March 11 and she has won two from three fresh.

I can't have the other three runners.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Music Magnate

DANGER  

12. Russian Revolution

FOR EXOTICS

13. Derryn
1. Fell Swoop
6. Redzel
8. Start Wondering


OTHER BETS


Netherfield (Morphettville Race 7 No. 13) would have gone close to winning the G3 Chairman's Stakes last start if he had been able to see daylight in the straight. That was the first time in five career starts he's missed the quinella. Trainer Mick Price is no stranger to success in S.A. after claiming the G1 Sangster Stakes here last weekend for the third time.

Good punting!

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