G1 Kingsford-Smith Cup Day - 27.05.2017

The much maligned Eagle Farm track will be in the spotlight this weekend with the running of the newly created G1 Kingsford-Smith Cup.

My plan is to watch the first few races and see how the track is playing or perhaps to look for horses that have already proven themselves on this surface.

Who's Hot? 

Craig Williams rode four winners at Morphettville last weekend (all of them Stakes races) just a day after bagging a two-track treble (Geelong and Cranbourne) on Friday.

I won't list them all but he has a bunch of rides at Cranbourne tonight and Sandown tomorrow.

EAGLE FARM

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

The Kingsford-Smith Cup (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Egyptian Symbol is an early scratching ***

They haven't raced here for four weeks and apart from 20mm late last week the track has had no significant rain since May 9 and yet we're starting on a Heavy 8. Not a good look.

Black Heart Bart handled this track well enough when a narrow second (below) in last year's G1 Stradbroke Handicap. He lumped 58kg that day and gave weight to all his rivals so w-f-a suits. In seven second-up runs he's had six top two finishes but on the other hand he's never won on affected going. From barrier four he should get into a good spot in the run. Trainer Darren Weir has never had a G1 winner in Queensland.

Clearly Innocent bolted in fresh a fortnight ago to win the Listed Luskin Star Stakes for the second year in a row. He's two from two at 1300m and three from three on slow tracks. Hugh Bowman stays solid and he is the leading G1 rider this year with 11 wins in Australia and two in Hong Kong. Take out his Melbourne failures and he's won six of his last eight with his only two misses coming first-up at 1100m which is short of his best.

Derryn was last at the half mile in the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) but rattled home late to grab third. The step up to 1300m looks ideal and he does handle wet surfaces as indicated by his wins prior in the G2 Arrowfield Stakes and the Listed Darby Munro Stakes. The stable had a day out last Saturday with four winners at Flemington and a Stakes double at Morphettville. From barrier five he can get cover back in the field but he's going to need a little luck.

Counterattack beat Derryn home last start (above) and he has two wins and five placings from seven attempts on affected going. His last win was on this day last year when he claimed the G3 Fred Best Classic but that was run at Doomben. Only Redzel has beaten him home at his last two runs. He mixes his form a bit but is capable enough on his day. Hard to believe he's just a 4-y-o - it seems like he's been around forever.

Double figures the rest of them.

Jungle Edge has drawn horribly and faces a stiff task with speed drawn inside him like Tycoon Tara, Music Magnate and Start Wondering. Having said that he has 11 career wins and they have all been on slow or heavy going. Only Tivaci and Le Romain got past him three starts back in the G1 All Aged Stakes. Music Magnate got badly tightened on the turn last start in the G1 Doomben 10,000 so that was a forgivable run. He won at this track four weeks ago in the G2 Victory Stakes on a Soft 7 and he did win the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) on this day last year. The gate doesn't help. Under The Louvre won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap on this track last year. He beat Black Heart Bart that day but meets him 3.5kg worse off here at w-f-a. He's never missed a place in five second-up runs.

Tycoon Tara has three 1300m wins to her name from five tries. Last time she ran at this trip she finished alongside Counterattack in the G3 Theo Marks Stakes and she gets a 3kg swing here. She got no favours at the barrier draw though. Hopfgarten is a five-time winner at this track and a three-time winner at this trip. He acquitted himself quite well here last start when second to Music Magnate in the G2 Victory Stakes and he handles the sting out of the ground. Impending has form around Derryn, Jungle Edge and Le Romain this time in so he can't be dismissed lightly. He's never won on a wet track, but he's never missed a place either. He's $21 into $15 in early markets so there has been some support. He'll get the gun run from gate one.

There are other runners but I can't get excited about their chances.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Derryn

DANGER  

1. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

2. Under The Louvre
4. Music Magnate
5. Counterattack

OTHER BETS

Morendi (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 11) has had six starts at Eagle Farm and they've all been since the redevelopment. He's won three, placed in two and was a three quarter length fourth in the other. He's had four starts here at the 2200m for two wins and two placings and he's never missed a top three finish at the trip in eight attempts. If they are able to make ground out wide on the day I think he's a worthy each-way bet at double figure odds.

Artistry (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 2) was second in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes on Stradbroke Day this time last year so she should handle the track. She wasn't far off susequent G1 winner Secret Agenda three starts back in the G2 Sapphire Stakes. She's well placed at set weights plus penalties against fillies and mares. 

Good punting!

G1 Goodwood Day - 20.05.2017

Foul weather in Brisbane means another rain affected track so I'm going to take a look at the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide this weekend instead.

For the second time in a fortnight they host a $1M feature. 

Who's Hot? 

Regan Bayliss rode five winners at Geelong on Tuesday and had a double at Pakenham on Thursday. All told he's ridden 14 winners in the last 10 days.

He has just the four rides at Morphettville tomorrow - Phelps Glory (Race 2 No. 4), Miss Strathallan (Race 4 No. 6), Tidy Prophet (Race 5 No. 5) and Faatinah (Race 7 No. 3).

* He was involved in a fall today so he may not ride tomorrow.

MORPHETTVILLE

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Karlovasi and Viddora are early scratchings ***

Black Heart Bart won this race last year (below) and has won four G1's since so he looks well placed with just 59kg here. Barrier two looks attractive given he's a type who likes to race handy to the speed. How can you knock a horse who has had 13 top two finishes in his last 14 starts? Four wins and three seconds from eight runs at 1200m.

Secret Agenda won at this track and distance last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes and she draws a much better barrier this time. Three of the last seven winners have followed the same path with two completing the double. The stable will be hoping the forecast showers materialise because she loves the sting out of the ground.

Vega Magic is in a new stable. Previously trained in W.A. he was the winner of nine of 14 in Perth and this is clearly his pet trip (10:7-1-1). His only "failure" at 1200m was a one and a half length seventh to Takedown in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot late last year. He's only been successful once in four first-up runs but did place twice and is well drawn.

Malaguerra is the only horse other than Winx to have beaten Black Heart Bart in the last eight months and jockey Ben Melham has won this race twice in the last four years. He's had a seven week break between runs and he does perform very well fresh (6:5-1-0) plus he has won a G1 Darley Classic (below) and a G1 B.T.C. Cup at this distance. Expect him to be stalking the leaders and pounce at the 200m.

They are the only four runners under $21 at time of publication but five of the last 10 winners paid $21 - $41.

Illustrious Lad has drawn the car park but he was only three quarters of a length off Terravista first-up in a G1 Lightning Stakes (below) four starts back. He's a two-time winner here including one at this trip and he closed well last start in the G3 Irwin Stakes. Santa Ana Lane comes here via the Wagga Town Plate which is an unorthodox preparation to say the least. Having said that he did lump 61kg in that race and came from 15th of 16 at the 400m to win by more than two lengths. First Among Equals has won five from eight at 1200m and has two wins and two placings from four second-up appearances but barrier 16 makes it tough. Incredibly jockey Luke Nolen (of Black Caviar fame) has just one G1 victory to his name in the last three years. Lucky Liberty gets a run thanks to the scratchings and he has five wins and a third from six runs at 1200m. He's unbeaten second-up the wide gate shouldn't be a concern given he'll get back to the second half of the field.

Rageese has the Weir factor and that stable has had two winners and two placegetters in this race from just eight starters. In the past his best runs have been three or four runs into a campaign when he gets out to 1400m so they might be a bit sharp for him here. Kaepernick just missed last start in the G3 McKay Stakes and meets the winner 5kg better off here. He likes to get back in his races and storm home so he'll need luck but with plenty of pace engaged here it could be set up for him. Sweet Sherry is a three-time winner at 1200m including her last start victory in the G2 Euclase Stakes at this track and trip. She drops 2kg from that run and draws barrier three. Missrock has chased home Secret Agenda at her last two starts and meets her 3kg better off in this race. I can't see why one is four times the price of the other especially given this filly didn't have a lot of luck last start. 

Faatinah has had three starts at this track and distance for two wins and jockey Regan Bayliss could win on a rocking horse at the moment. He wasn't beaten far last start and meets the winner 2.5kg better off here. If he can reproduce the run that saw him finish second in a G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) he'll give this a shake. Hey Doc has drawn wide but he is an on pace type so I expect he should be able to get across without burning too much petrol and they do only have to negotiate one turn. I'm prepared to be forgiving of his last run in the G1 Doncaster Mile given it was a Heavy 8. He's friendless in the market however ($16 out to $34). Zebulon has had just two races in the last 27 months but one of them was a four length win in the Listed City of Adelaide Handicap. He's missed a lot of racing due to an ongoing tendon problem but on his day he is quite capable. Both his wins were at 1400m though. Bassett has drawn horribly but he won three on the trot before an unlucky sixth last start in the G3 McKay Stakes when he didn't have a lot of luck. Trainer Mick Price has won this race twice before and he did win the other $1M G1 here a fortnight ago. 

Riziz is a seven time winner at Morphettville (six at this distance) and he's won his last two in a row. He hasn't missed a top four finish in six runs this prep and is drawn to get a good run just behind the pacemakers. At $81 he's my best longshot four wider exotics.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Malaguerra

DANGER  

1. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

6. Secret Agenda
7. Vega Magic
3. Faatinah

19. Sweet Sherry
12. Riziz

OTHER BETS

Brook Road (Doomben Race 5 No. 1) has been the beneficiary of trainer Kris Lees decision to nominate but not to accept with stablemate Felines in this race. It means that instead of having to give away a lot of weight to most of her rivals she's going to meet them just 1kg over the minimum with this compressed weight scale. At her one run at Doomben she won a Listed race over this trip and she handles the wet. Juicy odds.

Good punting!

G1 Doomben 10,000 Day - 13.05.2017

It's been run as a handicap and at w-f-a. It's been run at six furlongs, seven furlongs and 1350m. It's been run down the straight six and it's been run on the circle. And it's had several different names.

It can only be the G1 Doomben 10,000 aka the Doomben Newmarket Handicap aka the Rothmans 100,000 aka the Castlemaine 10,0000 aka the Treasury Casino 10,000 aka the UBET Doomben 10,000.

Who's Hot? 

Kris Lees is flying at the moment with 13 winners in the last three weeks.

He has a number of runners at Scone tomorrow.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

The Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Sooboog is an early scratching ***

Expect a mad dash to the first corner because we have El Divino (11), Upstart Pride (12), In Her Time (13), Fell Swoop (14) and Takedown (15) all drawn double figure gates and all likely to press forward. The stablemates Redzel (3) and Russian Revolution (5) will also try to take advantage of their good gates too.

Russian Revolution has only been beaten twice and they were G1 races. He meets Redzel 2kg worse off than the last time they met in the G1 Galaxy (below) when he was a narrow victor. He maps really well here and the stable does target this Carnival and has had good success in the past. He's had a six week freshen-up and a good trial win in readiness for this assignment.

Redzel has only won once beyond 1100m and that was last start when he go a soft run in front on a leader dominated track. Having said that his form in his last three preps has been outstanding with nine top two placings from his last 11 runs including five wins from his last nine starts. Regular rider Kerrin McEvoy stays solid with the stablemate Russian Revolution - once again. Drawn well and handles all surfaces.

Music Magnate won this race last year (below) when it was run at 1350m but I actually think 1200m is his best distance (7:4-2-1). He's one of only four horses in this race to have won here previously and it is notorious as been a tricky circuit. He did lead last start but only because it was a small field and no-one else wanted to. I expect he'll take a sit here from the middle barrier with so much speed in the race.

Fell Swoop has won just one race in the last 20 months but it was in the G2 Victory Stakes at this track and trip at this time last year. He's also run placings in a G1 Oakleigh Plate, a G1 Manikato Stakes, a G1 Darley Classic and the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (twice).  He's going to have to work hard from that barrier though and that bothers me.

Everything else is at double figure odds.

Derryn has won two of his last three and he wasn't terrible in his other run when eighth to Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. From  that gate he can sit off speed and come with a sprint and that looks like how this race will play out. Start Wondering has great form in N.Z. with two wins and two seconds at G1 level at his last four starts. He's four from six fresh and goes well at the trip (5:3-1-0). Counterattack handles the sting out of the ground and has won here before. He should get a lovely trail from barrier two. 

Japonisme gets the inside gate here but he hasn't beaten many home in his last two runs. He did finish third on this day last year at this track and distance in the G1 BTC Cup. Takedown has drawn horribly here and his two runs this prep have been poor. Wet tracks have been blamed for both failures but unfortunately he's going to cop another slow surface. Rebel Dane has looked well past his best at his two runs back this campaign but if they do go mad in front he is just the type who could come steaming home from last. In Her Time won four in a row at the start of her last prep before and then wasn't far away at G1 level. She hasn't raced since March 11 and she has won two from three fresh.

I can't have the other three runners.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Music Magnate

DANGER  

12. Russian Revolution

FOR EXOTICS

13. Derryn
1. Fell Swoop
6. Redzel

8. Start Wondering

OTHER BETS

Netherfield (Morphettville Race 7 No. 13) would have gone close to winning the G3 Chairman's Stakes last start if he had been able to see daylight in the straight. That was the first time in five career starts he's missed the quinella. Trainer Mick Price is no stranger to success in S.A. after claiming the G1 Sangster Stakes here last weekend for the third time.

Good punting!

G1 Sangster Stakes Day - 06.05.2017

For the first time ever South Australia plays host to a $1M race and it comes in the form of the G1 Sangster Stakes.

The prizemoney injection seems to have done the trick too because they've attracted a capacity field and some top class gallopers.

Who's Hot? 

Kerrin McEvoy returned from suspension today and he'll be hoping he can recapture the form that saw him win nine races in the two weeks prior to his "holiday".

He heads south to Morphettville this weekend and has a few good chances in Egg Tart (Race 6 No. 5), Ravi (Race 7 No. 11) and Defcon (Race 8 No. 1).

MORPHETTVILLE

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a shower. ***

The Sangster Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

This race went to G1 status in 2005 and in the 12 runnings since nine of the winners paid $8 or less and yet only three favourites won. 10 of the last 12 winners finished top four at their previous run and nine of them came off a last start run interstate. Only three 3-y-o's were successful. 

English was pretty plain last start in the G1 All Aged Stakes and appeared to have every chance but jockey Blake Shinn reported she floundered in the going and said forget she went around. At her previous run she was only just pipped by Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes which is super form for a race like this. It's a long time since she's been against her own sex and she's very well placed at w-f-a.

Sheidel was narrowly beaten in this race last year. She won the G1 Oakleigh Plate fresh with Joao Moreira on board and the "Magic Man" returns from Hong Kong to reunite with her here. He's ridden her twice for two wins. 15 career victories says a lot. She is a winner. The question is will she get across from the draw and how hard will they go in front?

I Am A Star was pretty good in the G1 Doncaster Mile given from all reports she didn't handle the wet track. Actually all her runs this prep have had merit. Her only run at this track came this time last year when she bolted in by three lengths in the G3 National Stakes at just her third career start. She's drawn well and can take the shortcuts.

Super Cash beat I Am A Star and Chautauqua first-up and then wasn't that bad in a leader dominated G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) at her next run. That is rock solid form for a fillies and mares race at w-f-a. She's been supported in early markets but the knock is she hasn't won beyond 1100m since scoring on debut in a Sale maiden.

Secret Agenda rises in grade here but her last start win was dominant although she may have been flattered by the wet track. Unfortunately she's drawn a horrible gate. She was a one and a half length fourth in the G2 Eucalse Stakes here on this day last year. She tends to mix her form but is very capable on her day.

Viddora beat the boys to claim the G2 Irwin Stakes last start and two of the last four winners came via that race. Four of her six career wins have come at this track but she's never won beyond 1100m in four attempts. Having said that her last run at the trip was a good second in the Magic Millions Sprint in January and barrier three is a big plus.

Ravi has two wins and a second from four second-up runs and at her other she was just over a length off Sheidel and Silent Sedition at Caulfield last October. The barrier draw did her no favours and as a result she's blown like a westerly in the market. The Snowden/McEvoy combo has won a few nice races recently.

Egyptian Symbol is unbeaten in three first-up appearances and she saves her best form for 1200m races (8:3-3-1). She is super consistent having only missed a place three times in her career and two of those were when she was asked to go beyond that trip. She'll make her own luck up on the speed.

Now Or Later is the wild card in the pack. This is her first Australian start but her previous four runs were all at G1 level. I confess I know very little about her but her last five runs were all at a mile so I'm prepared to risk her at the shorter trip. A bold showing wouldn't surprise me though because $26 into $15 indicates the stable is confident.

$26+ the rest so now a few tips for everyone who likes to have $1 place on something at ridiculous odds like my grandmother used to do. Missrock is drawn well and was good behind Secret Agenda last start. Miss Gunpowder has a good record at this track and impressed when winning her first start for the Hayes/Dabernig yard three weeks ago. Sweet Sherry is a sneaky place chance if she gets a run. If not she's a great chance in Race 8. I Am Zelady has only missed a place once in five second-up runs and draws well here.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

17. I Am A Star

DANGER  

5. Viddora

FOR EXOTICS

2. Sheidel
1. English
6. Egyptian Symbol

4. Super Cash

OTHER G1'S

Top Of The Range (Rosehill Race 3 No. 7) is on a G1 Queensland Derby path so he'd want to be taking care of this lot pretty easily if they think he's going to be competitive at that kind of level. He beat Netherfield last start and that horse arguably should have won the G3 Chairman's Stakes at Morphettville last weekend.

Sense Of Occasion (Gold Coast Race 7 No. 3) has put in two slashing efforts at his two runs back this campaign. His third in the G1 Doncaster Mile fresh was enormous given he came from a mile back in a race where the winner led all the way. At his next run he was third in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind Winx and Hartnell. That'll do me.

Good punting!