G2 Breeders Classic - 04.02.2106

Happy Chinese New Year!

I'm going to celebrate by rigidly conforming to the strictly enforced state suggestions for celebrating.

Who's Hot? 

In the last 18 days Ciaron Maher has had seven winners and six placegetters from just 22 starters.

He has three runners at Caulfield tomorrow in Jukebox (Race 4 No. 1), Lady Espirit (Race 8 No. 8), and Charlie Boy (Race 9 No. 1).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower. ***

Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, set weights plus penalties 4-y-o and up mares)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Danish Twist is suited by the conditions here because in a handicap she'd be giving at least 4kg to most of these so at just 1kg over the minimum she looks well placed. First-up last prep she was a narrow third to Takedown and Our Boy Malachi in the G2 Premiere Stakes at this track and trip. She hasn't been seen since finishing ninth (below) in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington at the end of last Spring when just a length and a half off the winner.

French Emotion was tremendous in the same race (above) finishing second beaten less than half a length. The last three winners of this race were having their first run back since a top five finish in that Flemington G1. Last prep she seemed to need a couple of runs before hitting her peak when she got to 1400m-1600m but she does have a good 1200m record. Hugh Bowman is looking for his fourth consecutive win in this race.

Flippant had three wins and a second from her first five starts but has managed just two wins in eight runs in the last 19 months. Still she thrashed Faatinah at the end of last prep (below) in the Listed MSS Security Stakes at Flemington on Cup Day. Last start at the Gold Coast wasn't too bad given she drew 16 and had to work early and was still battling away at the end with the big weight. Drops 5.5kg here.

Egyptian Symbol won the G3 Nivision at this track and trip four starts back and she's been a model of consistency throughout her career. Especially at this distance with three wins and three placings from seven starts with the only "failure" a two and a half length sixth in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint behind the likes of Japonisme, Counterattack, Takedown and Ghisoni. She has a fitness edge on all of her rivals.

Tsaritsa is lightly raced but building an impressive record and just forget her last campaign because she didn't come up and they pulled the pin after just two runs. Go on her previous prep instead where she had four starts for three wins (including the G2 Queensland Guineas below) and a narrow third in the Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes. Trainer Chris Waller has won the last three renewals of this feature.

I Am Zelady has drawn the extreme outside in the field of nine and comes off a narrow miss last start in the Magic Millions Fillies & Mares race. Like Egyptian Symbol she saves her best for 1200m (8:2-1-3) but she's managed just one third placing here in two runs. Jockey Tim Clark had a winning double at Wyong on Wednesday from just three rides.


In Her Time is jumping from a BM78 to take on Black Type opposition here but she's earned her spot with two good wins with big weights to start this preparation. She'll appreciate some weight relief here but even though she still looks badly placed here meeting Flippant and I Am Zelady at level weights.

Circular and Magnajoy are just making up the numbers.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Danish Twist

DANGER  

5. Flippant

FOR EXOTICS

2. Tsaritsa
4. Egyptian Symbol
1. French Emotion

OTHER BETS

Morton's Fork (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) could nearly have been unbeaten last campaign except for some horror luck in the Listed Gothic Stakes before bumping into a good one in Comin' Through in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He won first-up last prep (beating older horses) and his previous first up run was a second to Russian Revolution.

Faatinah (Caulfield Race 8 No. 1) is unbeaten fresh including a first-up win at the beginning of last prep down the straight in the G2 Bobbie Lewis over last weekend's impressive winner Tivaci. His one run at this course and distance he split Our Boy Malachi and Lankan Rupee in the G2 Caulfield Sprint last Spring. He does have his fair share of weight to carry but this race does look to have a long tail.

Good punting!

G2 Australia Stakes - 28.01.2017

Action aplenty this weekend with the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight, Black Type racing tomorrow in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA not to mention the G1 in NZ.

I'll need a good nanna nap after all that.

Who's Hot? 

In the past fortnight James Doyle has had six winners from 18 rides at a strike rate of one in three.

He's in Melbourne tonight to ride Chetwood (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 7) then he's straight back on a plane to ride in Sydney tomorrow where he'll partner Honeywine (Rosehill Race 5 No. 1), Handfast (Rosehill Race 6 No. 5), Sewreel (Rosehill Race 7 No. 4) and Badajoz (Rosehill Race  8 No. 4).

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a clear evening with light winds. ***

Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Cavaloce is an early scratching ***

Black Heart Bart has finished top two in 10 of his last 11 starts with his only miss being in the G1 Cox Plate. His last two fresh appearances resulted in a win in the G1 Memsie Stakes and a narrow second this time last year (below) in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. Seven tries at 1200m for four wins, two narrow seconds and a fourth in a G1 Goodwood.

Malaguerra flies fresh with five starts for four wins and a second to the flying 3-y-o Star Turn last campaign in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. He's won eight of his last 13 starts including two G1's from the 1200m start. He has five victories overall at this distance. He ticks a lot of boxes.

Chetwood is a lightly raced youngster on the way up taking on the big guns for the first time here. He was undefeated in four runs last prep culminating in a couple of Stakes race wins but nothing of this calibre. I expect he'll be competitive but whether he can challenge the top horses remains a query. Well backed.

They're the only three under double figure odds but of the rest Turn Me Loose trialled well for this and this time last year (below) he showed plenty of dash to lead them up in a G1 Orr Stakes and cling on for a one and a quarter length fourth. He has form at this distance early in his career and is unbeaten at the Valley.

Palentino is a G1 winner and his class will carry him a long way. First up last Spring he finished fourth over 1200m in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes with 60kg. He conceded 6kg to the winner Voodoo Lad on that occasion. His record suggests that he'll need further. Mourinho won this race first-up two years ago at $31. He finished seventh last year but was only three lengths off the winner Holler. He is a five-time winner here but he's also a rising 10-y-o. 

Peacock has never won fresh and his best form to date has been at 1400m with a couple of runs under his belt. He looks a nice young horse on the way up but this might be a bit hot for hime at this stage of his prep. Sirbible is three from five here and two from three at this track and trip. Not in this sort of company however. It Is Written has won here eight times and seven of those were at 1200m. He has started here 31 times though.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Malaguerra

DANGER  

1. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

7. Chetwood
2. Turn Me Loose
5. Palentino

OTHER BETS

Stolen Dance (Trentham Race 8 No. 5) is a specialist miler with seven wins and three placings in her ten goes at the journey. She was a brave second in this race last year after beginning slowly and getting too far back. She carries the same weight this year and her last start win with a big weight was full of merit.

Music Magnate (Rosehill Race 6 No. 1) hasn't been seen for almost eight months but he did win the G3 Hall Mark Stakes first-up last campaign at this trip before claiming the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) two starts later. He won't be any flash price but he should just win and is a horse to follow.

Sir Moments (Sunshine Coast Race 7 No. 1) has had five third-up runs in his career for four wins and is a four-time winner at this journey. He's been dogged by injury his entire career but he's a very good type on his day when he's right. I loved the way he savaged the line at the Gold Coast last start in the Magic Millions Cup. It's probably the best ninth you'll ever see.

Good punting!

G1 Telegraph Handicap (NZ) - 21.01.2017

No real high quality racing in Australia this week so I'll take a quick peek at the G1 across the ditch.

Hopefully I'll be able to find a couple of other winners at home too.

Who's Hot? 

Team Snowden has been on fire the last three weeks with 11 winners at a strike rate of almost 20%.

They have too many runners to list this weekend with acceptors at Canterbury tonight, Randwick, Eagle Farm and Newcastle tomorrow plus Wyong on Sunday.

TRENTHAM

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast was for cloud increasing and northerlies strengthening. ***

Telegraph Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Start Wondering was dominant last start in the G1 Railway Stakes  but he does meet Perfect Fit, Statham, Brighton and Reilly Lincoln 2.5kg worse off here. They're sure to have admirers because Perfect Fit beat the rest comfortably in that race, Brighton got a mile back and stormed home and Reilly Lincoln is two from three at this track and distance.

Then there's the up-and-coming First Serve who is facing his stiffest test to date and his first look at the Trentham circuit. Still he has three wins and a second from four goes at 1200m and is seven from nine overall. Mighty Solomon goes well at this track (6:1-2-1) and distance (6:3-1-1) and was solid fresh in the G2 Manawatu Challenge Stakes at w-f-a. Miss Appleton beat him that day and won well. She's never won at this track in six attempts but has placed four times including three at this journey.

The Aussie raider Odyssey Moon is making his first trip across the ditch but he did win the G3 Standish Handicap last start and that is also a straight six race on a left-handed track. Luna Rossa showed good early promise before a trip to Australia last Spring. She finished second in a G2 Tranquil Star Stakes before a couple of OK efforts in G1's. She has no weight here and trialled well for this. Speech Craft won well last start with 60kg and will appreciate some weight relief here. He's won down the straight here before. Passing Shot has an even better record at this track and trip - three from five. One for wider exotics maybe?

Locky's Selections

BEST        

14. Reilly Lincoln

DANGER  

3. Perfect Fit

FOR EXOTICS

18. Luna Rossa
13. First Serve
1. Start Wondering
5. Passing Shot

OTHER BETS

Pop 'n' Scotch (Trentham Race 10 No. 16) is massive odds in the G3 Wellington Cup but he is one you just know will run out a strong two miles because he's finished second in the Listed Queensland Cup three years in a row. Veteran jockey Robert Thompson travels to NZ for just one ride. Hmm.

Ninth Legion (Randwick 7 No. 2) won this race two years ago and his only other start at the Randwick 1400m yielded a second to Contributer in a G2 Apollo Stakes. In fact six of his eight career wins are at this trip. The good barrier and the addition of Blake Shinn are both big ticks.

Manolo Blahniq (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 9) didn't make much of an impression during the Spring but he was taking on some top quality races and fierce opposition like Star Turn, Astern and Flying Artie. He's taking on older opposition for the first time here but gets in on the minimum weight and he did show good potential early in his career.

Good punting!

Magic Millions Day - 14.01.2017

The holiday is over and it's time to get back to business.

It's a huge meeting to kick off too with $10M Magic Millions Day so I will be easing back into with a few tips rather than a comprehensive wrap.

Who's Hot? 

Toby Edmonds has had eight winners from his last 26 runners including a double from just two starters at Doomben today.

He's got a few runners at the Gold Coast tomorrow but his best hopes look to be Queen Tara (Race 2 No. 3), Siegfried (Race 3 No. 7) and Houtzen (Race 8 No. 11).

GOLD COAST

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Magic Millions 2YO Classic (Restricted Race, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm looking for good draws here because in these capacity fields of inexperienced 2-y-o's luck in running is so often a factor. There's going to be a few horses getting in each other's way at the end here because I think this race has a long tail.

WIth that in mind and at the odds I'm tipping Ours To Keep because he's one of the few horses in this race to have won at 1200m. I love the grounding he's had for this with back-to-back wins in the Listed Phelan Ready Stakes and G3 B.J. McLachlan Stakes a fortnight apart followed by another two week break into this race.

I concede chances to Madeenaty, Invincible Star, Houtzen and From Within with rough place hopes for a string of others but I'm happy to have the number one saddlecloth on top.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Ours To Keep

DANGER  

13. From Within

FOR EXOTICS

8. Madeenaty
10. Invincible Star
11. Houtzen
5. Falconic

OTHER BETS

Sold For Song (Flemington Race 7 No. 5) caught the eye first-up when flashing home from last of 15 to finish a narrow second to Kinshachi at Eagle Farm two weeks ago. Ignore her last prep in Sydney because not much went right for her. Instead look back to her Winter Carnival campaign where she ran six times (all at Black Type level) for a win in the Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes (at this trip) and four placings.

Esteban (Randwick Race 7 No. 3) is my best roughie on an each-way basis. Sure he was 13th of 14th fresh but he was only two lengths off the winner and he did string together four wins at the end of last prep. Granted this distance is short of his best but if the run along as I expect he could figure in the finish at double figure odds. One for wider exotics.


Dothraki (Gold Coast Race 9 No. 2) has had two starts at this track - both at 1200m - for two wins. He was narrowly beaten in the G1 B.T.C. Cup by Malaguerra at this trip during the Winter Carnival and his recent six length trial win seems to indicate he's primed for a first-up assault here. Blake Shinn and Team Snowden have an impressive strike rate in big races.

Good punting!