G1 Memsie Stakes Day - 27.08.2016

The first G1 of the new season and it features two Oaks winners, two Derby winners, a Guineas winner and the reigning Melbourne Cup champion.

In fact it's a great meeting at Caulfield all round with four more competitive Black Type races with some wide open fields so if you get the Quaddie you'll probably need a wheelbarrow.

Who's Hot? 

Luke Currie doesn't get a lot of opportunities with just 26 rides in the 26 days since the start of the season but still he's managed to bag five winners and six placegetters.

He certainly doesn't have limited opportunities tomorrow though with good rides aboard Shiraz (Race 5 No. 2), Alpine Eagle (Race 7 No. 7), Magnapal (Race 8 No. 4) and Don't Doubt Mamma (Race 9 No. 1) at Caulfield.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Memise Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm expecting a pretty solid tempo here because there looks to be a bit of of speed on paper and I think Lord Of The Sky (1), Mahuta (2) and Charmed Harmony (3) will want to take advantage of their inside draws.

Black Heart Bart was narrowly beaten (below) first-up last prep in a G1 Newmarket Handicap and he beat home Chautauqua that day so his fresh credentials are pretty good. He won the G3 Victoria Handicap at this track and distance back in March and his overall record at 1400m is outstanding with five wins and four seconds from 10 starts. It looks like he'll get the gun run here and he is definitely the one they have to beat.

Mahuta pulled up lame after his last run so I'm overlooking that effort and going on his previous run in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes which was good given he'd been off the scene for 21 weeks. He's four from five at 1400m and two from three at this track including the G2 Autumn Stakes in February. He strung together six wins in a row last prep so he's obviously pretty smart and has a great barrier here.

Palentino was solid fresh under the 60kg but just ran out of condition at his first run for five months. Last prep he edged out Tarzino (below) to win the G1 Australian Guineas and prior to that he was first past the post in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes at this course and distance but lost the race on protest. His only other 1400m run was a win at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival last November. An exciting prospect.

Since 2000 only one winner of this race has returned more than $7.50 and none have returned more than $12.

Sofia Rosa hasn't been seen since winning the G1 A.T.C. Oaks in April. Her last four runs have all been at Stakes level and have yielded three wins and a narrow second but they were all run at 2000m or further. She has two fresh wins at 1200m-1300m back in N.Z. but not against a field of this calibre. Despite her outstanding first-up record (4:3-0-1) I think she'll need the hit out because her main target is the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Tavago is another Kiwi 4-y-o on a Cups trail following his devastating win (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby four months ago. This is probably below his best distance but they have to start somewhere and he was competitive at 1400m-1600m early in his career (4:2-1-1). He wore blinkers in his Cranbourne jumpout and they stay on here so he could run a cheeky race.

Tarzino has had two first-up runs which were both at this distance and on each occasion he got back to last and stormed home to be about a length and a half off the winner. Those were much easier races but I still can see him flashing late given the expected solid tempo. I expect he'll be much better second-up but I won't be totally surprised if he runs into the minor placings. He's a two time G1 winner but not below 2000m.

Tally made a rapid progression through the ranks last preparation and all reports from the stable are that he's made further improvement over the winter. A bold showing would not surprise because he won first-up last time in work. He's won at the track and has a win and a second from two goes at the trip and don't forget he did beat Palentino in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes in March. Tough draw though. 

Alpine Eagle has only had three starts in the last 17 months due to injury but he's a very exciting type. He's won at this circuit, has a good 1400m record and don't forget he was a narrow second to Wandjina in a G1 Australian Guineas. He won his only trial leading into this and the blinkers are on so I am very wary. He was only three quarters of a length off the likes of Fawkner and Boban (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes this time last year. 

Rising Romance beat Alpine Eagle home that day (above) but she was second-up on that occasion and her form says she'll need this run. She has one second placing from five runs here at Caulfield and just one win from five runs at the distance and that was her maiden victory in N.Z. almost three years ago. She's a very good mare but I think she'll be better when she gets deeper into her preparation.

Of the rest He Or She was narrowly beaten at this track and trip first-up last prep but his overall record at this course and at this distance isn't flash. The wide barrier draw doesn't help either. Lord Of The Sky wasn't disgraced last start but I've got serious questions about his ability to run out a strong 1400m and he's won just one race in the last two years. Prince Of Penzance needs further. About a mile ought to do it. Charmed Harmony has beaten just two horses home in his last three starts combined. He's good at this track and distance but just doesn't appear to be travelling well at the moment. Tashbeeh looks out of his depth here and is drawn horribly.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Black Heart Bart

DANGER  

11. Palentino

FOR EXOTICS

7. Alpine Eagle
9. Tarzino
10. Tavago

12. Tally

OTHER BETS

He's Our Rokkii (Caulfield Race 2 No. 4) has the blinkers on first-up unlike last prep so I think the stable means business. He's attractively weighted for a two time Stakes winner and did win fresh at his first run in this country. His only start here at Caulfield resulted in a second to the talented Mr Individual. He's gone to another level since they put the blinkers on.

Magnapal (Caulfield Race 8 No. 4) is going for back-to-back wins in this race and he was impressive second-up in the unsuitably short G2 Lawrence Stakes a fortnight ago when strong through the line despite copping some interference late. He's now getting out to a trip that will suit and from barrier three should get a lovely passage in transit.

Allergic (Rosehil Race 8 No. 3) beat a similar field to this last start and did it with authority so I see no reason not to follow him here. Since coming to Sydney he's had five starts at 1800m or beyond for three wins and narrow seconds to Libran and Arab Dawn both in Black Type races. He has four wins on soft ground by a combined margin of more than 16 lengths.

Good punting!

G2 Warwick Stakes Day - 20.08.2016

Winx returns to the racetrack this weekend in the G2 Warwick Stakes and she'll face just six other starters all of whom are G1 winners in their own right.

Thankfully we'll have something approaching a good track in Sydney too for the first time in months.

Who's Hot? 

Team Hawkes has had a great start to the new season with five winners and six placegetters from just 20 runners including four winners in the last seven days.

They saddle up Divine Prophet (Race 4 No. 3), Messene (Race 6 No. 2) and Satya (Race 8 No. 10) at Randwick tomorrow.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a high chance of rain in the early morning clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***

Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

A small but select field but no obvious leader and that isn't going to suit all the get back and run on types. It looks like being another typical Australian w-f-a sit and sprint affair. Especially given most of these are either on a G1 Cox Plate or G1 Caulfield Cup path and won't be fully wound up.

Winx has won nine in a row, six of them G1's and four of those victories came here at Randwick. First-up this time last year (below) she claimed the G2 Theo Marks Stakes from a seemingly impossible position. I think she's the obvious top selection and should win but I don't want to take $1.35 to find out. The only possible knock is the fact she's had rather secretive off-season surgery to have a bone chip removed.

Lucia Valentina did win the G2 Tramway Stakes first-up at this track and distance almost two years ago and is capable of running a cheeky race fresh but the likely dawdling tempo is against her. A bit more rain would have helped her chances too. She's had two trails and I expect her to be pretty fit given she'll probably only have one more run leading into the G1 Cox Plate.

Rebel Dane has race fitness on his side because the rest of these are first-up and many are stayers getting ready for more prestigious assignments during the Spring Carnival. Unfortunately he's another who needs a strong pace up front to chase and he won't get that here. Since winning the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes almost three years ago he's won just once in 22 subsequent appearances.

Hartnell has had three fresh runs in this country and all were sound without being spectacular. The problem is they were all at the mile. He's sat handy to the speed in his last two first-up runs and battled on gamely behind Complacent in a G2 Chelmsford Stakes and Winx (below) in a G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He's never placed at Randwick in three starts here but was far from disgraced in some high quality races.

Vanbrugh has only won once below 1600m and that was on debut. I hate to sound like a broken record but like so many of these he is looking for further with his best performance to date (below) being a win over 2000m in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. He was comfortably beaten in the G2 Hobartville Stakes fresh last preparation at this trip. He has won twice at Randwick though.

Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal won't even get warm here. They are both nominated for the G1 Cox Plate and G1 Caulfield Cup and won't hit their peak until they reach 2000m+. I think trainer Chris Waller will just be happy to see them running through the line late.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

6. Winx

DANGER  

7. Lucia Valentina

FOR EXOTICS

2. Hartnell

4. Rebel Dane

OTHER BETS

Manaya (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) won the Listed Woodlands Plate on debut following two massive trial wins where she gapped her rivals. Not many horses can notch a Black Type victory at their first run so I think she's got a bit of class about her. She's one to watch going forward in the good 3-y-o fillies races and I think she's backable tomorrow despite the short odds.

Le Romain (Randwick Race 6 No. 5) is an up-and-coming 4-y-o in a race full of older horses who, if they were going to get any better, would have done so by now. He had five starts last prep for a first-up win, seconds to Spill The Beans and Press Statement and then a win (below) in the G1 Randwick Guineas. His only miss was when they tried to stretch him to 2000m. He's had two trials to prepare for this and both were solid.

Heavens Above (Randwick Race 8 No. 1) hasn't had much support in the market but I'm happy to take her each-way at around the $8 mark. Sure she's giving her opposition a stack of weight and will no doubt be giving them a head start too but she progressed into a G1 competitive filly last prep and I think she has many lengths on this lot. She'll get better deeper into her campaign but she's still got good first-up form.

Good punting!

G2 Lawrence Stakes Day - 13.08.2016

The blog returns but just a light hit out this week because I'm a bit on the fresh side after a long spell to recover from a busy Autumn/Winter carnival.

I'd just like to take this opportunity to wish my loyal reader(s) good luck on the punt in 2016/17 season because if you follow my tips you're going to need it.

Who's Hot? 

Dean Yendall rode five winners at Swan Hill on Monday after bagging a double at Echuca the previous day. We're only 12 days into the new season and he's already ridden more winners than I tipped in the whole of last year.

He rides Tall Ship (Race 7 No. 7) and Gold Symphony (Race 8 No. 7) at Caulfield tomorrow.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Nevis is an early scratching ***

I can't see Lord Of The Sky getting away with daylight robbery in front this time with The Cleaner engaged. I expect a few others will be pressing forward too - Entirely Platinum is drawn out and will probably try to cross while Miss Rose De Lago, Jacquinot Bay and Mahuta will want to take advantage of their good barriers. I expect the speed to be genuine.

With that in mind I think Suavito is going to get a lovely trail here and if she reproduces anything like her last fresh run (below) when she won the G1 Orr Stakes at this track and trip she'll be hard to beat. That was the second time in a row she won a feature Caulfield 1400m w-f-a contest first-up after claiming the G1 Futurity Stakes in her previous prep.

The Cleaner hasn't been seen for eight months (at least not at my place) but he did finish second in this race fresh last year when just pipped by Mourinho after trying to lead all the way. He's never won below 1600m though but he's placed in seven of nine first-up appearances. Mahuta did enough fresh to indicate he's come back in good order and he should strip fitter for the run. He's unbeaten in four runs at 1400m - two of them here at Caulfield. Miss Rose De Lago has had four runs at this track for three wins and a narrow third to Azkadellia. The inside barrier is a big plus too because it will allow her to take advantage of her early tactical speed. Jameka could easily win this if she was fully wound up but I think she's got bigger fish to fry later on in the Spring. I'm happy to risk Lord Of The Sky at 1400m and Entirely Platinum because he hasn't won for nearly two years.

Of the rougher chances Smokin' Joey was good last start given the farcical tempo. With more speed on here and out to 1400m expect him to be rattling home. Awesome Rock was pretty good fresh last campaign (above) when storming home from last to be just over three lengths off Suavito in the G1 Orr Stakes. Jacquinot Bay may be a bit out of his depth here but he is rock hard fit and in good form. Magnapal won second-up last prep. I've got a feeling he's looking for further though. Ditto Tall Ship, Berisha and Set Square.

Not the usual in depth wrap but I don't want to give myself a gut-buster first run back  after a spell because I have a long Spring campaign ahead of me.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

12. Suavito

DANGER  

2. The Cleaner

FOR EXOTICS

11. Mahuta

14. Miss Rose De Lago

1. Smokin' Joey
6. Awesome Rock

OTHER BETS

Sacred Master (Rosehill Race 6 No. 5) ran terrific final sectionals first-up in a leader dominated race and has won his last two second-up runs. I also like the fact that he's getting out to 1800m because all bar one of his wins have been at a trip. That was his first run for the Waller yard so he'll be better for the experience and he is a six-time winner in his native N.Z. 

Sword Of Light (Caulfield Race 6 No. 2) gave 4.5kg to a pretty handy colt last start and was only grabbed in the shadows of the post. Back to fillies grade here is much easier and she's well placed at the set weights plus penalty conditions. She should get a great run from barrier one. May the force be with her!

Snoopy (Rosehill Race 8 No. 12) is unbeaten in three first-up runs and unbeaten in two runs on wet tracks. The stable bypassed a tougher race in Melbourne to tackle this and he's been well found in early markets. He's down in the weights and drawn to advantage and he's been gelded now so his mind should be on racing now.

Good punting!