It's a smorgasbord of Black Type action over the next four days with a couple of biggies in N.Z. tomorrow including the G1 Thorndon Mile and G2 Wellington Cup. There's also Stakes races in Victoria, N.S.W. and Queensland and again on Sunday in Tasmania.
That will be followed on Tuesday with the Listed Australia Day Cup at Randwick and the Blue Diamond Previews from Caulfield.
That will be followed on Tuesday with the Listed Australia Day Cup at Randwick and the Blue Diamond Previews from Caulfield.
Who's Hot?
Hard to go past Damien Oliver with eight winners from his last 20 rides. He rode a treble at Cranbourne last Friday night (from just the five rides), followed it up the next day with another treble at Flemington then bagged a double at Geelong two days ago.
Tomorrow he's riding at Moonee Valley.
MOONEE VALLEY
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with early drizzle clearing by the afternoon.***
Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Rebel Dane has had five starts at Moonee Valley, all at 1200m and all at G1 level. While he is yet to win and his overall record here looks bad on paper (5:0-0-2) he hasn't been far off the likes of Buffering, Lankan Rupee, Lucky Hussler and Chautauqua (below) at his most recent appearance in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October. His seven first-up appearances have resulted in four wins and two placings to Lankan Rupee and Sweet Idea.
Holler is resuming after a 13 week break following his easy victory here in the G3 Red Anchor Stakes on Cox Plate Day when he won by four lengths eased down. I doubt he'll get a soft lead here though and he was also probably flattered by the fact that the track that day was a leader's highway. Having said that his fresh record does include a win on debut and a third to Exosphere and Press Statement in the G2 Run To The Rose last August.
Rageese has had just the eight starts but six of them have been at Stakes level including placings behind Pride Of Dubai (below) in the G1 Sires Produce and Press Statement in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. He ran the fastest time of the day in winning his Flemington jumpout last Tuesday and looked sharp so he could be ready to rock here despite his poor first-up record. The 3.5kg pull in the weights from the older horses is a big plus.
Holler is resuming after a 13 week break following his easy victory here in the G3 Red Anchor Stakes on Cox Plate Day when he won by four lengths eased down. I doubt he'll get a soft lead here though and he was also probably flattered by the fact that the track that day was a leader's highway. Having said that his fresh record does include a win on debut and a third to Exosphere and Press Statement in the G2 Run To The Rose last August.
Durendal is a 1200m specialist with six wins and two placings from his eight starts while at his eight runs at other trips he has had just the one success. This is harder than anything he has contested previously but he's earned his shot with six wins from his last nine outings including his last three in a row. The stable is flying with 10 winners since the start of the year and his last start win in the G3 Standish Handicap was impressive but this is much harder.
Hucklebuck is having just his second start in 14 months after an injury enforced layoff. He's proven at the top level with a victory (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes and although that was at the mile he has shown himself to be quite adept at shorter trips when resuming from a spell (5:3-0-0). The wide draw is a bit of a concern but given there are a few here who like to push forward he may be able to slot into a position midfield with cover. Classy animal. Wary.
Trust In A Gust is no stranger to the big time having won a G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and a G1 Toorak Handicap. He's only been sighted twice since and both campaigns were aborted after just one run so it may pay to overlook that form. An excellent record at the track and distance plus four top-two finishes from five fresh runs says he's right in this but the extreme outside barrier will make it tough.
Hucklebuck is having just his second start in 14 months after an injury enforced layoff. He's proven at the top level with a victory (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes and although that was at the mile he has shown himself to be quite adept at shorter trips when resuming from a spell (5:3-0-0). The wide draw is a bit of a concern but given there are a few here who like to push forward he may be able to slot into a position midfield with cover. Classy animal. Wary.
Trust In A Gust is no stranger to the big time having won a G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and a G1 Toorak Handicap. He's only been sighted twice since and both campaigns were aborted after just one run so it may pay to overlook that form. An excellent record at the track and distance plus four top-two finishes from five fresh runs says he's right in this but the extreme outside barrier will make it tough.
It's double figure odds the rest but there are some who deserve a closer look.
Of the others Mourinho has won his last three first-up appearances including a G2 Lawrence Stakes last August and this race (below) last year at $31. He's a five-time winner at Moonee Valley and like a fine wine he just keeps getting better with age. He's had six wins and three placings from his last 13 runs - all since turning 7-y-o! Good gate an advantage.
Sirbible is $17 into $12 in early markets and I must confess he's a horse I don't know a lot about. His first 15 starts were all in the Northern Territory but his last three starts have been in Victoria for two wins and a third. Both victories came at this track and distance including a last start three length demolition job. He's never missed a place in eight starts at 1200m.
Churchill Dancer doesn't win often but he is consistent. He wasn't far off Durendal in the G3 Standish Handicap last time out and meets him three and a half kilos better off here. Flemington seems to be his preferred venue but he did romp to a near five length victory at this track and distance last August - albeit in much weaker grade. Wide draw no help.
Richie's Vibe won this race two years ago. He hasn't won since in 13 subsequent runs and has only placed two times - both in Adelaide. His last start effort under a big weight was full of merit and though he can run a good race at times he is becoming a bit of a "money muncher". I'm looking elsewhere.
It Is Written races better at Moonee Valley than anywhere else. He's a seven-time winner here in 22 appearances whereas his 31 starts at other venues have yielded just three victories. He just missed Mourinho (above) in this race last year and was third the previous year to Richie's Vibe. Drawn to get a good run in transit.
Of the others Mourinho has won his last three first-up appearances including a G2 Lawrence Stakes last August and this race (below) last year at $31. He's a five-time winner at Moonee Valley and like a fine wine he just keeps getting better with age. He's had six wins and three placings from his last 13 runs - all since turning 7-y-o! Good gate an advantage.
Sirbible is $17 into $12 in early markets and I must confess he's a horse I don't know a lot about. His first 15 starts were all in the Northern Territory but his last three starts have been in Victoria for two wins and a third. Both victories came at this track and distance including a last start three length demolition job. He's never missed a place in eight starts at 1200m.
Churchill Dancer doesn't win often but he is consistent. He wasn't far off Durendal in the G3 Standish Handicap last time out and meets him three and a half kilos better off here. Flemington seems to be his preferred venue but he did romp to a near five length victory at this track and distance last August - albeit in much weaker grade. Wide draw no help.
Richie's Vibe won this race two years ago. He hasn't won since in 13 subsequent runs and has only placed two times - both in Adelaide. His last start effort under a big weight was full of merit and though he can run a good race at times he is becoming a bit of a "money muncher". I'm looking elsewhere.
It Is Written races better at Moonee Valley than anywhere else. He's a seven-time winner here in 22 appearances whereas his 31 starts at other venues have yielded just three victories. He just missed Mourinho (above) in this race last year and was third the previous year to Richie's Vibe. Drawn to get a good run in transit.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Rebel Dane
DANGER
3. Hucklebuck
FOR EXOTICS
4. Trust In A Gust
2. Mourinho
5. It Is Written
8. Durendal
OTHER BETS
3.36p.m.
Spur Le Jouer (Doomben Race 6 No. 7) will find this a lot easier than last start (below) when he had to try and chase down Buffering at the Gold Coast. I liked the way he ran through the line and the fact that the first four cleared out from the rest. Good barrier, leading jockey and the minimum weight are all big ticks in his favour.
4.45p.m.
Another Cocktail (Randwick Race 9 No. 1) went up $6.50 with some operators but that quickly disappeared. Not surprising really given it is a staying race in Sydney and he is an imported galloper trained by Chris Waller. He's had two good runs in this country - both at the mile - and has lumped big weights on each occasion. Stepping up to 2000m here looks ideal and I think the claim for the apprentice sees him pretty well in with 58kg.
Good punting!
1. Rebel Dane
DANGER
3. Hucklebuck
FOR EXOTICS
4. Trust In A Gust
2. Mourinho
5. It Is Written
8. Durendal
OTHER BETS
Spur Le Jouer (Doomben Race 6 No. 7) will find this a lot easier than last start (below) when he had to try and chase down Buffering at the Gold Coast. I liked the way he ran through the line and the fact that the first four cleared out from the rest. Good barrier, leading jockey and the minimum weight are all big ticks in his favour.
4.45p.m.
Another Cocktail (Randwick Race 9 No. 1) went up $6.50 with some operators but that quickly disappeared. Not surprising really given it is a staying race in Sydney and he is an imported galloper trained by Chris Waller. He's had two good runs in this country - both at the mile - and has lumped big weights on each occasion. Stepping up to 2000m here looks ideal and I think the claim for the apprentice sees him pretty well in with 58kg.
Good punting!
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