G2 Expressway Stakes Day - 30.01.2016

If you are still following this write-up I have to ask the question "Why?" because I've been having a Barry Crocker of late.

Unless you're just using my tips as a free scratching service...

Who's Hot? 

Hard to go past Blake Shinn with seven winners from his last 24 runners starting with a double at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions Day and finishing with a double at Goulburn two days ago.

He has just the four rides at Rosehill tomorrow - Yulong Ambition (Race 5 No. 4), Landlocked (Race 6 No. 1), Forget (Race 7 No. 6) and Miss Royale (Race 8 No. 8).

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with a very high chance of showers in the afternoon.***

Expressway Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

This race should be run at a good tempo with Tiger Tees likely to push forward and hold the inside, River Lad and King's Troop will try to get across from wide gates and Solicit and Our Boy Malachi are always handy to the speed.

Our Boy Malachi is hard to knock. Two from two at Rosehill and four from five at the 1200m. His only "miss" was a third (below) in a G1 BTC Cup. Six wins and a second in seven first-up appearances. Three from three in the wet. 17 wins from 21 career starts. Ignore his ninth of nine in his latest barrier trial because he missed the kick. He's drawn to get a lovely run here and is clearly the one to beat.

Big Money had nine wins and four seconds from his first 15 starts but has placed just once in his last five runs stretching back more than a year. While his second-up record reads well (5:3-0-0) his last two efforts have been disappointing. He was only a length and a half behind Our Boy Malachi at level weights (above) in the G1 BTC Cup last May. He was sound first-up with the big weight and Robert Thompson is back on board in a rare city visit.

Solicit loves the sting out of the ground and is a three-time winner fresh. She won the G3 Vanity and the G3 Darley Crown first-up and she also broke her maiden (beating future G1 winner Suavito) when resuming from a spell. She just missed first-up last campaign in the G2 Tristarc Stakes. She did win a 1200m race at her third start but has only been tried at the trip once in 23 subsequent starts.

Generalife hasn't won since claiming the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes at this track and distance when first-up last March but he's been super competitive in his six runs since. On every occasion he's been within at least two lengths of the winner and we're talking about races like the G1 All Aged Stakes, G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) and G1 Stradbroke Handicap. A four-time winner at Rosehill but he wouldn't want it too wet.

King's Troop gets a 3.5kg pull in the weights from all bar Solicit and a 3-y-o did win the G2 w-f-a sprint last weekend in Melbourne. I don't think he appreciated hitting a wet track first-up and he bombed the start at the Gold Coast at his next run. Ignore those runs and go on his first three starts which resulted in a win and two seconds to G1 winner Japonisme and he's right in this. Especially given he has race fitness on his side.

Tiger Tees is a two-time winner at this track including one at this distance but he hasn't won for 17 months. Fresh last prep he was a one and three quarter length fifth to Terravista in the G2 Premiere Stakes in October. A wet track might enhance his prospects. So would a few scratchings. About seven ought to do it.

River Lad hasn't won since his victory (below) in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap nearly 20 months ago. The stable had a winning double at Randwick last weekend but the barrier draw hasn't done them any favours. Still he's a winner of six races at 1200m and the only G1 winner in the field.

Forget will be the rank outsider but the end of his last prep was pretty good. He bagged four wins, a second, a third and a fourth in his last seven runs which culminated in a last start victory in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle four months ago. I think this will be a bit short for him and he's not a noted fresh performer but the good draw and the soft track are a help.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Solicit

DANGER  

4. Our Boy Malachi

FOR EXOTICS

8. King's Troop
3. Generalife

OTHER BETS

Real Love (Flemington Race 4 No. 2) is coming off a gutsy third (below) in the G2 Perth Cup and if she can handle the drop back in distance this looks a very winnable race. She was forced to go back from a wide gate last start but from barrier six I can see her a lot handier in the run tomorrow. Sixth run in last prep she won last year's G2 Perth Cup. Her last 11 starts have been at Stakes level so this is her easiest assignment in more than a year. 

Another Cocktail (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) was tipped last week but was scratched so I'm staying solid. It's a staying race in Sydney and he is an imported galloper trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Hugh Bowman. He's had two good runs in this country - both at the mile - and has lumped big weights on each occasion. Stepping up to 2000m here looks ideal and he drops to 57kg on a 54kg minimum. 

The Quarterback (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is the topical tip with the Super Bowl just over a week away but I'm not simply tipping him because of his name. His 1000m record at Flemington is great (5:3-0-1) and his last start win here on VRC Oaks Day was blistering. First-up last prep (below) he charged home from last to be four lengths off Chautauqua in the G2 McEwen Stakes despite an interrupted run in the home straight.

Good punting!

G2 Australia Stakes Day - 23.01.2016

It's a smorgasbord of Black Type action over the next four days with a couple of biggies in N.Z. tomorrow including the G1 Thorndon Mile and G2 Wellington Cup. There's also Stakes races in Victoria, N.S.W. and Queensland and again on Sunday in Tasmania.

That will be followed on Tuesday with the Listed Australia Day Cup at Randwick and the Blue Diamond Previews from Caulfield.

Who's Hot? 

Hard to go past Damien Oliver with eight winners from his last 20 rides. He rode a treble at Cranbourne last Friday night (from just the five rides), followed it up the next day with another treble at Flemington then bagged a double at Geelong two days ago.

Tomorrow he's riding at Moonee Valley.

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with early drizzle clearing by the afternoon.***

Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Rebel Dane has had five starts at Moonee Valley, all at 1200m and all at G1 level. While he is yet to win and his overall record here looks bad on paper (5:0-0-2) he hasn't been far off the likes of Buffering, Lankan Rupee, Lucky Hussler and Chautauqua (below) at his most recent appearance in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October. His seven first-up appearances have resulted in four wins and two placings to Lankan Rupee and Sweet Idea.

Holler is resuming after a 13 week break following his easy victory here in the G3 Red Anchor Stakes on Cox Plate Day when he won by four lengths eased down. I doubt he'll get a soft lead here though and he was also probably flattered by the fact that the track that day was a leader's highway. Having said that his fresh record does include a win on debut and a third to Exosphere and Press Statement in the G2 Run To The Rose last August. 

Rageese has had just the eight starts but six of them have been at Stakes level including placings behind Pride Of Dubai (below) in the G1 Sires Produce and Press Statement in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. He ran the fastest time of the day in winning his Flemington jumpout last Tuesday and looked sharp so he could be ready to rock here despite his poor first-up record. The 3.5kg pull in the weights from the older horses is a big plus.

Durendal is a 1200m specialist with six wins and two placings from his eight starts while at his eight runs at other trips he has had just the one success. This is harder than anything he has contested previously but he's earned his shot with six wins from his last nine outings including his last three in a row. The stable is flying with 10 winners since the start of the year and his last start win in the G3 Standish Handicap was impressive but this is much harder. 

Hucklebuck is having just his second start in 14 months after an injury enforced layoff. He's proven at the top level with a victory (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes and although that was at the mile he has shown himself to be quite adept at shorter trips when resuming from a spell (5:3-0-0). The wide draw is a bit of a concern but given there are a few here who like to push forward he may be able to slot into a position midfield with cover. Classy animal. Wary.

Trust In A Gust is no stranger to the big time having won a G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and a G1 Toorak Handicap. He's only been sighted twice since and both campaigns were aborted after just one run so it may pay to overlook that form. An excellent record at the track and distance plus four top-two finishes from five fresh runs says he's right in this but the extreme outside barrier will make it tough.

It's double figure odds the rest but there are some who deserve a closer look.

Of the others Mourinho has won his last three first-up appearances including a G2 Lawrence Stakes last August and this race (below) last year at $31. He's a five-time winner at Moonee Valley and like a fine wine he just keeps getting better with age. He's had six wins and three placings from his last 13 runs - all since turning 7-y-o! Good gate an advantage.

Sirbible is $17 into $12 in early markets and I must confess he's a horse I don't know a lot about. His first 15 starts were all in the Northern Territory but his last three starts have been in Victoria for two wins and a third. Both victories came at this track and distance including a last start three length demolition job. He's never missed a place in eight starts at 1200m.

Churchill Dancer doesn't win often but he is consistent. He wasn't far off Durendal in the G3 Standish Handicap last time out and meets him three and a half kilos better off here. Flemington seems to be his preferred venue but he did romp to a near five length victory at this track and distance last August - albeit in much weaker grade. Wide draw no help.

Richie's Vibe won this race two years ago. He hasn't won since in 13 subsequent runs and has only placed two times - both in Adelaide. His last start effort under a big weight was full of merit and though he can run a good race at times he is becoming a bit of a "money muncher". I'm looking elsewhere.

It Is Written races better at Moonee Valley than anywhere else. He's a seven-time winner here in 22 appearances whereas his 31 starts at other venues have yielded just three victories. He just missed Mourinho (above) in this race last year and was third the previous year to Richie's Vibe. Drawn to get a good run in transit.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Rebel Dane

DANGER  

3. Hucklebuck

FOR EXOTICS

4. Trust In A Gust
2. Mourinho
5. It Is Written
8. Durendal

OTHER BETS

3.36p.m.

Spur Le Jouer (Doomben Race 6 No. 7) will find this a lot easier than last start (below) when he had to try and chase down Buffering at the Gold Coast. I liked the way he ran through the line and the fact that the first four cleared out from the rest. Good barrier, leading jockey and the minimum weight are all big ticks in his favour.

4.45p.m.

Another Cocktail (Randwick Race 9 No. 1) went up $6.50 with some operators but that quickly disappeared. Not surprising really given it is a staying race in Sydney and he is an imported galloper trained by Chris Waller. He's had two good runs in this country - both at the mile - and has lumped big weights on each occasion. Stepping up to 2000m here looks ideal and I think the claim for the apprentice sees him pretty well in with 58kg.

Good punting!

16.01.2015

No $10M meeting this weekend but we do have four races across three states worth $100K or more and two G1's in NZ.

I won't be looking at a specific race this week but instead I'll be trying to find a few good horses on both sides of the ditch.

Who's Hot? 

Joe Pride had 14 runners for seven winners and three placings between New Year's Day and last Saturday. He had another winner during the week at Canterbury.

Tomorrow he has runners at Randwick and Kembla Grange.

SELECTED BETS

12.27p.m.

Xtravagant (Trentham Race 6 No. 1) will be too short to back straight out but could be used as an anchor in some multis. He looked a little tired at the end of his last win on Boxing Day but he was entitled to be after seven weeks between runs. Go on his previous win (below) when he put on an absolute clinic in the G1 N.Z. 2000 Guineas. The stable is eyeing off a potential trip to the G1 Australian Guineas so he'd want to be cleaning up this lot.

2.26p.m.

Gold Symphony (Flemington Race 6 No. 1) is an exciting young prospect. In the space of a little more than eight weeks he went from a Mornington maiden to victory in the G3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield. He's had just the four starts for three wins and a second and although he hasn't raced for nearly five months I expect a bold first-up showing even with the 58kg impost.

3.36p.m.

Royal Tithe (Sunshine Coast Race 6 No. 13) has chased home a couple of smart ones in her two starts to date. On debut she was second to the talented Zelady's Night Out and at her only other appearance she was narrowly beaten by Candika. That filly ran out of her skin last Saturday to finish third in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic. The jockey's name sounds familiar...

6.05p.m.

Lucky Street (Ascot Race 6 No. 5) was brave (below) when a fighting seventh in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes two starts back. He was the victim of a wide run and some pushing and shoving but still fought it out all the way to the finish. He just missed last time out in the Listed Summer Scorcher after another torrid passage. A five-time winner here at Ascot and Paul Harvey is back on board as he has been in four of this blokes five wins.

A few shorties but a four-leg multi should net around 30/1. Good punting! 

Magic Millions - 09.01.2016

Magic Millions. $10M dollars in prizemoney up for grabs over nine races. The richest day in Australian racing history.

The good news is despite more than 50mm of rain earlier in the week the Gold Coast track is on improve and the weather looks dynamite.

Who's Hot? 

What a start to the year for Peter and Paul Snowden who have had six winners and four placegetters from just the 17 starters including an amazing five last Saturday across Rosehill and Kembla Grange.

Tomorrow they have runners at Beaumont, Canterbury and the Gold Coast.

GOLD COAST

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day.***

Magic Millions 3YO Guineas (1400m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Mahuta has won four from six including the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day and the G2 Sandwon Guineas at his last two appearances. Topweight of 58kg may look bad on paper but he is actually really well placed here at just 3kg over the minimum given he is a three-time winner at Stakes level. Unfortunately he's drawn the car park.

Flippant won two Black Type races in the late Autumn/early Winter including the Listed Lancaster Stakes at Doomben on Stradbroke Day. The wide gate doesn't help but that hasn't stopped them from backing her from $6.50 into $5. The stable is flying with 12 winners in the last three weeks and she did look good when she thrashed them last start at Wyong.

Egyptian Symbol wasn't far away last start (below) in the G3 Vo Rogue Plate here at the Gold Coast on Boxing Day. She hit a bit of trouble in the straight too and had to switch off heels so her effort was better than it looked. The three kilo pull in the weights from the favourite is to her advantage as is the favourable draw and she is a winner on affected ground too.

They are the only ones at single figure odds but there are others that are sure to have admirers.

Sir Bacchus overcame trouble to win last start to make it back-to-back victories. Damien Oliver has been engaged to ride and they'll need every bit of his genius from the extreme outside barrier.

Madotti is a last start winner (see above) beating a few of her opponents here but she did enjoy a charmed run from barrier two that day so the wide draw here makes it tougher. Still she's in consistent form and that should never be knocked.

Most Important was second in that race and I love the way he savaged the line after drawing wide and getting back in the field. He's drawn a bit better this week and is $17 into $13 in early markets.

Shotacross The Bow (3E) was another eye-catcher in the same race when he charged into fourth place from near last on the turn. If he gets a start he could be a good roughie for exotics especially if they run along in front.

I'm Belucci hasn't appeared since finishing second (below) in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. First-up last prep he flashed home from last to finish a three-quarter length fourth in a 1200m maiden. The worry is this is much harder and this time he resumes at 1400m.

Flamboyant Lass was disappointing at Wyong last start. Actually she was terrible and the vet reported no abnormalities post-race so her failure is a mystery. Her best two runs in her last six starts were on affected ground so she wouldn't want the track to dry out too much.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

16. Egyptian Symbol

DANGER  

9. Flippant

FOR EXOTICS

3. Most Important
1. Mahuta 

7. Sir Bacchus
5. I'm Belucci

OTHER BETS

Strawberry Boy (Gold Coast Race 6 No. 3) has had one run back from a spell and at his last second-up appearance (below) he was a close-up fourth after leading all the way and only getting collared late in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He's drawn to get the gun run and did finish a narrow second in this race last year. He was only half a length off Winx in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes.

Jumbo Prince (Gold Coast Race 5 No. 6) is six runs into his campaign now which is a time when he seems to fire for some reason. Sixth run in last prep he was a one length third in the G1 Queensland Derby and at the same stage of his previous prep he lumped 57.5kg to victory at this track and distance. Loves the sting out of the ground.