G2 Perth Cup Day - 02.01.2016

I hope everyone had a great Xmas and New Year and here's to a successful 2016.

Let's try and start off with a winner!

Who's Hot? 

In the last nine days William Pike has had 15 rides for seven winners and seven placings. He has missed the top three just once. That is remarkable.

He has a bunch of rides at Ascot tomorrow so I won't list them all.

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers.***

Perth Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'll start with the four Bob Peters owned gallopers because they occupy four of the first five lines of betting.

Delicacy has to break a weight carrying record to win here but if anyone can do it she can given her effortless victory last start (below) in the G2 Cox Stakes. Going from w-f-a to handicap conditions is the only knock because she'll be meeting many of the beaten brigade eight kilos worse off here. Six starts at 2000m or beyond for six wins including two Oaks and two Derbies. Is the inside draw a help or a hindrance?

Real Love wasn't far off her stablemate (above) in the same race and does get a three kilo pull in the weights here. She did win this race last year but carried just 54kg and this looks a tougher edition and she has to overcome a wide barrier too. Three of the last four winners were mares but since the race went to 2400m in 2009 only two of the seven winners have been at double figure odds.

Neverland was the eye-catcher last start (below) when second in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes. She got too far back in a slowly run race where the winner sat on the speed and sprinted on the point of the turn. The concern is that in ten starts she's unbeaten in her six appearances up to 1500m but winless in her four other runs at longer journeys. How much do we read into the fact that William Pike has chosen to ride her over Delicacy?

Respondent drops five kilos on his last run (above) and this race does favour lightweights with no winner lumping more than 58kg since 1913 and no winner carrying more than 55.5kg since the race changed distance seven years ago. The problem is he hasn't won since claiming the G2 WA Derby at this course and distance 20 months ago and his 14 subsequent runs have yielded just five placings.

Bedamijo is a five time winner at the track including a last start victory (above) in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes over 2200m. She has four top-two finishes in her last five starts so she's in red hot form but funnily enough prior to that she had failed to place in her six attempts at 2000m and beyond. She may also have been flattered last start by a slow pace up front and a cosy run near the lead but she's drawn to get a good run again.

All the others are likely to start $20+.

Of the rest Properantes and Dust Me Off closed well behind Bedamijo (above) in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes after getting too far out of their ground especially given the dawdling tempo. Properantes can be handier in the run this time from the better draw and is a four-time winner here. Dust Me Off meets them better at the weights.

Dubai Escapade hasn't appeared since getting held up and savaging the line (below) to win the Listed Tattersalls' Cup six weeks ago. That win came on the back of an eight week layoff so obviously they think the key to him is spacing his runs. Granted he has to overcome a wide gate but he could run into the placings at big odds without surprising.

Ask Me Nicely (third in this race in 2014) and Tower Of Lonhro ran through the line OK in the G2 Cox Stakes (see further above) and get a five kilo turnaround on Real Love and an eight kilo swing on Delicacy. Balmont Girl was solid too but her weight pull is less however she has a win at this course and distance whereas the aforementioned pair do not. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Neverland 

DANGER  

1. Delicacy

FOR EXOTICS

7. Dubai Escapade
2. Real Love
15. Tower Of Lonhro
12. Properantes

G2 Villiers Stakes Day - 12.12.2015

There aren't many races in this country that can trace their beginnings back to the 1800's but the G2 Villiers Stakes is one of them.

It headlines a pretty solid weekend of racing for this time of year with Black Type races in both Brisbane, Sydney and even Werribee.

Who's Hot? 

Liam Birchley has had six winners from his last 18 starters at a strike rate of 33.3%. He'll be a busy boy this weekend with runners in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

At the Sunshine Coast tonight he'll start Finnero (Race 7 No. 1), at Doomben tomorrow he saddles up Punishing (Race 4 No. 1) and Pepperano (Race 7 No. 7), at the Gold Coast he has Syn City (Race 1 No. 5), at Randwick he'll run Boom Shucka (Race 3 No. 3) and on Sunday in the Listed Werribee Cup he has Pop 'n' Scotch  (Race 6 No. 8).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day.***

Villiers Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Looks like we'll have just the three runners under double figures come race time.

Happy Clapper may be coming off a win in a BM85 but he was five weeks between runs and jumping from 1200m to 1500m with 60.5kg. A lightly raced, progressive type who has won five of his last six starts and drops to the 53kg limit here he should be able to get a lovely smother from the good draw and Brenton Avdulla is unbeaten on him.

Telepathic is dropping back to 1600m after an easy last start win at 2000m. It's a path trainer Chris Waller has followed before in Randwick feature miles. The knock is she's had three runs at this track and distance and has never placed. The barrier draw hasn't been kind to her though.

God's In Him on the other hand is a bit of a Randwick specialist with three wins and a third from his last four outings here and he won at this track and distance earlier this year beating subsequent G1 winner Good Project. Hoop Dwayne Dunn travels north of the Murray for the first time this season to ride him.

The Listed Festival Stakes (below) is the traditional lead-up for this race so now I'll take a lot at the horses coming via that contest. Some of the runs were better than they look on paper because the backmarkers had no hope given it was a sprint home. Having said that I don't think they'll be out to break any land speed records in front here so we could have a very similar race.

Mighty Lucky (first) goes up 1kg for winning his first race in 19 months. A firm track and a good barrier are in his favour.

It's Somewhat (second) remains at the same weight and it was a good run for a horse who hadn't been seen on a racetrack for 12 weeks. The worry is he'll have to give 4-6kg to half of his rivals and overcome a tricky barrier draw. Jockey James McDonald could win on a broomstick at the moment but he's friendless ($8 out to $10) in early betting.

Zanbagh (fourth) drops 1kg as do most of the others. She made up good ground late in a leader dominated race and was just over a length off the winner. She's going to need the breaks to go her way though because she's drawn very wide and will have to be ridden for luck but she is racing in fine fettle at the moment.

Red Excitement (fifth) drops half a kilo and he was another who got home well off a farcical tempo. He won the Listed Manifold Stakes at Flemington back in January and he's a three-time winner here at Headquarters. Unbeaten in two goes at the 1600m but the barrier is a nightmare. Kerrin McEvoy rode a treble at Goulburn yesterday.

Ninth Legion (sixth) did what he always did which was run an honest race and be thereabouts at the end. Just look at his recent runs. Fourth in the G3 Sandown Stakes beaten a length and a half. Sixth in the Listed Sale Cup beaten a length and a half. Sixth in the G2 Shannon Stakes beaten two and a quarter. That's him for you.

Frespanol (seventh) was asked to do way too much in a slowly run race. I don't think he'll be that far back tomorrow from the inside barrier especially given this is the lightest weight he has carried in quite some time. Two starts here at the Randwick mile for a win and trainer Gai Waterhouse does win the odd big mile race here at Randwick.

I'm Imposing (eighth) is another who got way back and did well to be as close as he was at the finish under the big weight. Unfortunately as I've already outlined I don't see a lot of speed in this race either which does nothing to improve his chances. He did finish second in this race last year.

I'll take a quick peek now at those runners that aren't coming via the Festival Stakes.

Puccini impressed in his first run for new trainer Darren Weir when a gutsy second in the G3 Eclipse Stakes when he faced the breeze for the entire trip. He meets Casino Dancer a kilo and a half better off for that three quarter length defeat and he is a four-time winner at the mile including a G1 Thorndon Mile in NZ, a G2 and two G3's. Nasty barrier.

Rhythm To Spare has lumped 60kg to victory at his last two starts so he'll appreciate some weight relief here. He's a six-time winner at the mile and he makes his own luck up on the speed so from barrier eight I think he'll end up in a pretty good spot in the run. If he gets a soft lead like he did two runs back at Flemington he'll take some running down.

Malice carries the same weight here that he did in the G1 Epsom Handicap when a three and a half length seventh (below) behind Winx. He has won at this track and distance but his overall record at Randwick is poor (8:1-0-2) as is his record at 1600m (4:1-0-0). I'm looking elsewhere.

Casino Dancer is crazy odds for a horse who has been in such consistent form of late. After 48 starts they finally decided to put on the blinkers and she's since won twice at Stakes level and also been placed twice in four runs. Prior to that she'd won just one race in the last two years. 

I'm going wide here because it looks an open race. Good punting!

Locky's Selections

6. Rhythm To Spare 

11. Casino Dancer
16. Happy Clapper
10. Frespanol

OTHER RACES

Razor Sharp Handicap (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

Dublin Lass (Randwick Race 8 No. 3) got me the coin last time and I'm staying solid. She won't be any flash price but she does look well weighted here again and draws a favourable barrier for the second start in a row. The stable is flying. Seven top two finishes from nine attempts at 1200m - two of them right here at Randwick.

Lough Neagh Stakes (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)

Gundy Spirit (Doomben Race 8 No. 8) is a bit of a specialist at the Doomben 1350m with three wins and two seconds from seven starts. He beat all bar Didntcostalot last start on that leader's highway and at this stage of his prep last Winter he was only two lengths off Charlie Boy in the G3 BRC Sprint at this course and distance.

G1 Kingston Town Classic - 05.12.2015

The final G1 of 2015 and a race callers nightmare with four stablemates wearing almost identical silks and distinguished only by the colour of their caps. There's also another five runners who wear predominantly yellow. Leave me out of that.

Ten weeks now until the next major when the G1 Orr Stakes rolls around on February 13 next year.

Who's Hot? 

James McDonald has had 12 winners in the last 17 days at a strike rate of 29.3%. He's placing on roughly three out of every five horses he rides so he must be included in all trifectas.

He has a full book at Randwick tomorrow but his best rides on paper look to be Tarquin (Race 2 No. 1), Rye (Race 3 No. 6) and Felines (Race 7 No. 7).

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers.***

Kingston Town Classic (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Black Heart Bart:  Seven of the last 11 winners came off a top four finish in the G1 Railway Stakes. Nine of them started at single figure odds and eight started from single figure barriers including the last five in a row.

Having said that the top two in the market don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes.

Magic Artist was unlucky not to win (below) when making his Australian debut in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. A week later he dropped back from the 2000m to the 1600m of the G1 Emirates Stakes and was a solid fourth if a bit one paced. The inside barrier is a massive advantage given they have to negotiate two very tight turns from the 1800m start at Ascot. So is the engagement of Damien Oliver.

Perfect Reflection is attempting to become the fourth 3-y-o to win this race in the last nine years. She's four from four including a dominant last to first victory (below) in the G3 W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes here three weeks ago. It's tough to go from a Pinjarra maiden to a G1 in just three months but she just keeps winning and gets 6.5kg - 9kg on most of her rivals. Wide barrier is a concern but jockey William Pike sticks solid. Wary.

Now let's take a look (below) at the form out of the G1 Railway Stakes.

Delicacy (sixth) has drawn the outside barrier for the second start in a row and also has to defy history because no mare has won this race since St. Clemens Belle in 1999. She's third up here and at the same stage last prep she bolted in at this course and distance in the Listed Ascot 1000 Guineas. That was the start of six wins in a row that included two Oaks and two Derbies. She's a definite threat if they can swoop on the day.

Real Love (seventh) was forced to go back from a wide draw but did finish the race of well. I still think she may be one run away because this time last year she really peaked when she went to 2000m+ at her fourth, fifth and sixth runs of the prep. Her two runs at 1800m have been poor. I'll be looking for her in coming weeks in a race like the G2 Perth Cup but I  still expect her to be amongst them at the finish.

Black Heart Bart (fourth) meets those two mares 2.5kg to 3kg better off for beating them home in the G1 Railway Stakes. The knock is he's never won beyond 1420m in seven attempts although he has placed three times including a third at this track and distance. He's drawn to get a lovely run and that will be a big help. A six time winner here at Ascot so he does have an affinity for the circuit.

Four winners in the last 11 years have paid $21 - $26 (but only one of the last nine) so we should take at least a brief look at some of the longer priced horses especially for those who like to play the exotics.

Balmont Girl (third) got a good run in transit from the good gate and she's likely to get the same again tomorrow from barrier two. The problem is she is probably the worst off at the w-f-a scale here because she goes up 4kg and meets many of her opponents on that day much worse off here. A G3 W.A. Oaks winner so she has class and will stay.

Hazzabeel (fifth) worked early to get across from his wide barrier last start so drawing in helps his chances here. He's never been tried beyond a mile but his pedigree suggests it won't be a concern. What is of concern is that he jumps 6kg on his last run. He won five of his first six starts but has won just one of his last five.

Of the others that don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes Extra Zero wasn't far behind Magic Artist last start in that G1 Mackinnon Stakes (see above) and he was one of the few to make ground away from the fence that day. Two starts prior to that (below) he was only a length and a quarter off Preferment in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. The shocking barrier does nothing to help his chances.

Neverland has won three on end since resuming and six from eight overall. She'll need luck from barrier 10 and she meets Delicacy 1kg worse off for a three and a half length hiding at this track and distance in the G3 Ascot 1000 Guineas earlier this year. In fact she's chased home that mare in her only two career misses - both of which came when they tried to stretch her beyond 1600m.

Man Booker comes off victory (below) in the G2 W.A. Guineas and has won four from seven overall so he's no slouch. That was his first win at Ascot in three attempts (he's three from four at Belmont Park) and he's never won beyond 1600m. I think that was a weaker form race compared to his opposition here so I'm looking elsewhere.

Blackwood closed well from last start in that same G2 W.A. Guineas and it was a slowly run race so her effort was full of merit. Prior to that she wasn't far off Perfect Reflection in the G3 W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes. Jockey Steven Parnham has won this race three times in the last five years.

Good punting!

Locky's Selections

4. Magic Artist 

16. Perfect Reflection
10. Real Love
9. Balmont Girl

OTHER RACES

Brisbane Handicap (Listed, 1640m, quality handicap)

Jumbo Prince (Doomben Race 8 No. 3) could improve here after a disappointing effort last start. A sprinkle of rain this week in Brisbane means the track won't be as firm and he meets Traveston Girl 3kg better off.  A two-time winner at the mile and a Black Type placegetter during the Winter Carnival.  

City of Greater Dandenong Stakes (Listed, 1000m, handicap)

Reldas (Sandown Race 7 No. 5) was impressive during the Spring Carnival with back-to-back Moonee Valley wins followed by a close-up second to Malaguerra at Flemington on Emirates Stakes Day. Three starts here at Sandown for two wins. Back from 1400m to 1000m but he has had a four week freshen-up.