28.11.2015

The good races are pretty thin on the ground so I've been scanning the nominations since they came out on Monday trying to find a winner.

Unfortunately all the ones I found seem to have been found by other people and have been well backed and tipped by many a form analyst.

But I'll stick to my guns and give you my original tips despite the skinny prices and the fact that I'll probably be accused of laziness and tip stealing!

Who's Hot? 

Richard Jolly is in good touch of late with six winners from his last 19 starters at a strike rate of 32.6%.

He has three runners at Morphetville tomorrow - Evil Dreams (Race 2 No. 1), Heartz Ablaze (Race 2 No. 5) and Enduro (Race 5 No. 5).

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***

A.J. Scahill Stakes (Group 3, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

Watermans Bay won this race last year. His record at the 1400m reads well with two wins and four seconds from eight attempts including a win and two seconds at this track from just four starts. His last go at the journey was three starts back when he won the G3 Victoria Handicap at Caulfield during the Autumn. He chased home Buffering last start (below) in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes - a race he ran second in last year before claiming this feature.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers.***

George Moore Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Didntcostalot looks well weighted here at just 1kg over the minimum. He's one of five Tony Gollan runners in a field of just 12 and jockey Tegan Harrison is sticking solid. They are a formidable team who have combined for 20 winners and 22 placegetters from just 70 runners so far this season. He's never missed a place in five starts at Doomben (three wins, two placings) and he will give you a good sight for a long way.

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day.***

Festival Stakes (Listed, 1500m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Frespanol will appreciate being back on a firm surface after lumping 58.5kg last start on a Heavy 9 when he just missed. Five of his six wins have come on dry tracks and he was dropping back from the mile to the 1350m on that occasion. He meets Zanbagh 2kg better off here for that defeat and prior to that he beat Rock Sturdy and Casino Dancer who have both since run well at the Flemington Carnival. His first two starts this campaign he finished alongside subsequent G1 winner Good Project.

Starlight Stakes (Listed, 1100m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Dublin Lass has only missed a top two finish twice in her last 10 starts stretching back to October last year and both those failures were when they tried to stretch her to 1400m. Her first up second in the G3 Mumm Stakes at Flemington on Oaks Day was enormous given she came down the inferior ground on the inside rail. The great barrier draw and the light weight should she her get a soft run here.

G1 Winterbottom Stakes Day - 21.11.2015

All eyes turn to the West for the big double at Ascot headlined by the G1 Winterbottom Stakes.

It's been a fascinating race in the last decade with an honour roll that includes the likes of Miss Andretti, Marasco, Takeover Target, Ortensia (twice) and Buffering.

The other feature is the G1 Railway Stakes for the handicappers over the mile plus we also have the running of the G2 W.A. Guineas.

Who's Hot? 

Grant Williams is the man to follow in W.A. at the moment because so far this season one of every three of his runners wins and six out of every ten are placed. He's had eight winners across the last four Ascot Saturday meetings.

His best chances tomorrow look to be Neverland (Ascot Race 4 No. 8), Celebrity Dream (Ascot Race 5 No. 10), Arcadia Dream (Ascot Race 6 No. 15) and Delicacy (Ascot Race 8 No. 3).

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***

Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Sheidel is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fast 'n' Rocking:  Only one horse in the last decade returned a winning dividend greater than $9 and since the race achieved G1 status in 2011 no winner has paid more than $7.50. All bar two of them drew barrier eight or inside which is not surprising given the sharp turn and short run home at Ascot. 

Buffering won this race two years ago at his only appearance here to date. The scratching sees him come into barrier nine and he should have the early speed to cross and lead. His last start fourth (below) in the G1 Darley Classic is good enough to win here. He is the horse best placed at the w-f-a scale and the obvious one to beat.

Lucky Street is a promising looking 3-y-o on an upward spiral. He has five wins and a second from eight career starts but this is a big step up from his win a fortnight ago in a BM78+. Having said that the last four winners of this race were coming off a last start win but no 3-y-o has won since 2002.

Magnifisio has a tremendous record at this track and distance with three wins and three placings including a victory (below) in this very race last year. She has to overcome the extreme outside barrier but jockey Jason Brown has won two of the last three renewals of this race. One of the few who gets a weight advantage from the favourite.


Waterman's Bay was third in this race two years ago and a luckless second last year (below) so if the natural progression continues he should win here. His last run at this track and distance was a second to Black Heart Bart in the Listed Cyril Flower Stakes when conceding him 5kg. The wide draw makes it tough.

Fast 'n' Rocking should get a good run from the inside draw and if he can weave through or find a gap he will be charging late. He'll be hoping for a fast run race because that's when he's at his best. The stable has had a good run of success lately with Almoonqith, Extra Choice, Sacred Eye, Keen Array, Stay With Me, Sovereign Nation and Criterion.

Everything else is $12 or better but there are a few who look like they will get soft runs in transit. 

Liberty's Gem will be up on the pace making his own luck. He's only missed a place three times and that was at the end of last prep when they tried to stretch him out to 1400m-1600m. He has four wins and a third from five runs here at Ascot including two from two at this trip.

Rock Magic beat a couple of his aforementioned rivals in the G3 Colonel Reeves last start. That was his first win at Ascot in four attempts and he has missed a place at five of his seven 1200m runs. The good barrier helps his chances too but like so many others he is really poorly weighted here.

Silverstream sneaks into the field with the scratching. G1 genius Damien Oliver takes the ride for the previously mentioned Grant Williams stable. He's won his last three in a row since resuming from a spell - all of them here at Ascot - but this looks harder. From the handy gate I expect he'll be closer to the lead now he's stepping up to 1200m.

Rommel won the G2 W.A. Guineas on this day last year (above) and left Disposition and Delicacy in his wake. He's been placed in three of four first-up runs and won the G3 Zeditave Stakes at Caulfield during the Autumn. At a quote of $41 he could be a good roughie for trifectas and other exotic bets.

Good punting!

Locky's Selections

1. Buffering

2. Fast 'n' Rocking 
3. Waterman's Bay
6. Rommel

G1 Melbourne Cup Day - 03.11.2015

Cup Day. Or as my grandfather used to call it - "that midweek welter handicap".

A very short blog focusing on the main race because as always I am on holidays this week and have four of these to write over a space of eight days - usually whilst hungover.

Add that to the fact that I also have to try and fit in the odd swim, a dozen games of NFL, the Rugby World Cup final and the start of the First Test and I will be a very drunk  busy boy.

It’s a tough life but at least I have a window office.

Who's Hot? 

Phillip Stokes brought just two runners from his Morphettville base in SA to Flemington on Derby Day and bagged a G2 win with Eclair Choice. He did a similar thing last year training four winners over the carnival with three coming on the final day including the G1 Emirates Stakes with Hucklebuck.

Tomorrow he has just the one runner in Comprende (Flemington Race 6 No. 7).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day.***

The Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

If you watch Channel 7 tomorrow at one stage or another you are going to hear a "tipster" (no doubt some fatuous bimbo from a soap opera) say that all 24 of these have a chance. 

The reality is they do not. 

Every year the Melbourne Cup is run and the next day the newspaper shows a panoramic photo of where they all finished and almost always you have about 14 of the 24 who get beaten by 100 yards or more. So the key is to finding the horses you know will see out a strong 3200m and have the profile to be competitive.

So for what it is worth here is my never humble opinion.

I have Trip To Paris on top. He is a G1 Ascot Gold Cup winner over 4000m, he has had one run in Australia and proved he has acclimatised with a narrow second (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup, with 55kg he is well weighted and he has a local jockey. The favourite Fame Game is obviously the main danger but the 57kg worries me and although he was the eye-catcher in the G1 Caulfiled Cup he was still four and a half lengths astern of Trip To Paris. I think the best of the local hopes is Preferment because he has the pedigree for this journey (his sire Zabeel has produced three Cup winners) and he’s had two starts here at Flemington for wins in the G1 VRC Derby and G1 Turnbull Stakes. He won’t know himself with just 53.5kg. I’m rounding out my Top Four with a roughie to add a bit of value to exotics and that horse is Red Cadeuax. He looks juicy odds at $31+ for a horse who has run in this race four times for three seconds and he looks well weighted too.

Of the others in the market I think Criterion (below) is poorly weighted and a query at the two miles. Max Dynamite has not had a run in this country which I don’t like but he has form around Trip To Paris. Who Shot Thebarman is one you know will definitely see out the 3200m but he couldn’t win last year with a similar weight and this field looks much stronger. Almoonqith was dominant in the G3 Geelong Cup but while that race was a good guide for a little while the last few renewals have been pretty weak. The United States defied the track pattern to win the G2 Moonee Valley Cup but it has been a poor reference race and he’s another who is on trial at the distance.

For those of you who like to go for big priced longshots of those that I haven’t mentioned yet Our Ivanhowe went well in the G1 Caulfield Cup but the big weight and the likelihood of a firm surface won’t suit him. Hartnell went OK (above) in the G1 Cox Plate and gives the appearance he’s looking for the longer journey now. Hokko Brave had a wide run last start at Caulfield and didn’t shirk the task. Grand Marshal is a G1 Sydney Cup winner so the two miles holds no fears and he was luckless in the run to the line last start and should have finished closer. Gust Of Wind has just 51kg and won the G1 ATC Oaks by two and a half lengths beating Winx. Her fourth in the G1 Caulfield Cup was good and she looks like further will be to her advantage.

But just be aware that since Tawriffic saluted in 1989 only two winners in the last quarter of a century have paid $21 or more.

Good luck!

Locky's Selections

10. Trip To Paris

3. Fame Game 
15. Preferment
9. Red Cadeaux