G1 Memsie Stakes Day - 29.08.2015

It was All Quiet on the Western Front last week with most of my cash Gone with the Wind but I'm hoping The Greatest Show on Earth will win me enough this week to take me From Here to Eternity and Around the World in 80 Days.

As tipsters go I'm clearly not A Man for All Seasons but I'm hoping this weekend I can pull off The Sting and though I'm no Braveheart with my selections hopefully tomorrow I can come up with a Titanic result and put the bookies in The Hurt Locker.

Who's hot?

Blake Shinn has had a remarkable fortnight. He bagged a Sydney metro double two weeks ago before riding a treble at Newcastle on the following Tuesday. 

Last Saturday he had just five rides for two wins and seconds aboard Voilier and Pornichet. Not content with that he travelled to Nowra the next day for one ride and one win. Oh yeah... and he rode a double at Warwick Farm two days ago.

He has flown to Melbourne this weekend and has a good book at Caulfield tomorrow.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers. ***

Memsie Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Fawkner is an early scratching ***

Boban won the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) when first-up last campaign so going straight to 1400m fresh holds no fears. He followed that with a strong second to Srikandi in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap when he gave her 5kg and a big start in a moderately run race. He's had two goes at the Caulfield 1400m for a fifth in this race last year and a win two years ago in the G3 Moonga Stakes with 59.5kg. This is clearly his best trip with five wins (three at stakes level) and three seconds from 13 starts.

Volkstok'n'barrel won the G1 Rosehill Guineas (below) and even though that was over 2000m he can still be competitive here. He won his first three starts last prep over distances from 1300m to 1600m and he's unbeaten in two goes at the 1400m. He's actually never missed a place in 10 career starts and he races on speed which looks to be an advantage here in a race seemingly devoid of any real pace. A soft track won't hurt.

Hi World is facing a quantum leap in class here but he has the ability to race on the pace and he's drawn to take advantage of that tactical speed. He's won four from seven and his last three on end but they were at distances of 1600m to 2000m. When produced fresh back in March he was a half length second to Orient Line and that horse races earlier in the day to give us some sort of guide.  Unbeaten in three starts on wet tracks.

Entirely Platinum is probably our leader unless Charmed Harmony gets a run. His last three fresh runs have all been at 1400m and he has notched two victories and a second (below) in the G1 Orr Stakes back in February when he split Dissident and Mourinho. His overall record at the trip (7:4-1-0) is great and in his only two other runs here he was a narrow second in the G3 Naturalism Stakes and fourth behind Suavito, Smokin' Joey and Dissident in the G1 Futurity Stakes.

Weary resumed three weeks ago with a flashing second in the G2 Missile Stakes. That was his first run since chasing home Pornichet (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup. Given how well that horse returned last weekend this guy has to be in the mix somewhere. Chris Waller is the premier G1 trainer in this country and he's only brought two horses south for this race. This bloke is one of the few who will handle a wet track.

Stratum Star has firmed in the market ($15 to $10) since the scratching of Fawkner as prior to that he wasn't guaranteed a start. He hasn't won for more than 10 months but his last victory did come here in a 1400m race on Caulfield Cup Day last year. He caught the eye with his closing seventh first-up and he is just so consistent - that was the first time he'd missed a place since March last year.

They are the only ones at $11 or less (like the last 20 winners) but I give place chances to Smokin' Joey because you have to forgive one bad run and his form prior was rock solid. Five wins at 1400m but lack of tempo is a concern. Rising Romance is a class mare having won a G1 Australian Oaks and placed in a G1 Caulfield Cup. She's got bigger fish to fry down the track but she did win first-up over 1500m last campaign and she has 16 top four finishes from 18 career starts. Temple Of Boom always seems to be thereabouts in these G1's but the fact can't be ignored that he's won just one race in his last 31 starts. Happy Trails has contested the last three renewals of this race second-up and seems to do worse every time - a two length second in 2012, a three and a half length seventh in 2013 and a five length eighth last year. Sertorius has been placed in seven of 10 fresh appearances including a good second to Suavito in the G2 Blamey Stakes back in March. He loves Caulfield too with three wins and two seconds from seven starts.

Locky's Selections

11. Volkstok'n'barrell

3. Boban

8. Weary
10. Entirely Platinum

AND THE OSCAR GOES TOO...

Rain Man

Soviet Courage (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) loves a good downpour. He's won his last three starts and they've all been on a surface rated Heavy 8 or worse and all have been at 2400m or beyond so the journey (gotta fly QANTAS, QANTAS never crashed) won't be a concern. He's had two runs here at Rosehill - both over the 2400m - and has won them both. In the four metro Sydney meetings since the start of the season Chris Waller has trained two doubles and two trebles.

The French Connection

Under The Louvre (Caulfield Race 5 No.4) flies fresh with four starts for two wins and a narrow second (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate last campaign at this track and distance. He hasn't been out of the placings since May last year and he hasn't missed a top two finish at this venue in five starts. Look for him storming late when things get serious - he certainly won't be running up the white flag and surrendering.

The Godfather

Madam Gangster (Caulfield Race 7 No. 8) resumes in Melbourne and clearly Blake Shinn has been made "an offer he can't refuse" by his stepfather and stepbrother Lee and Shannon Hope because he travels south to link-up with this mare. He must be "a great disappointment to the family" because he's only ridden for them nine times in the last 12 months but he has managed three wins and three placings. The barrier is a concern but she did win well first-up last time in work.

No Country For Old Men

Inz'n'out (Rosehill Race 8 No.8) is a lightly raced, newly turned four-year-old on the way up in a race full of older horses who, if they were going to get better, would have done it by now quite frankly. Last start he put his rivals to the sword (or should that be bolt pistol?) and prior to that he was second to subsequent winner Fell Swoop, beating home Bold Circle who ran well last weekend and Dupe 'Em (5th) who has since won too.

G2 Warwick Stakes Day - 22.08.2015

It was a welcome return to tipping form last week when Mourinho ($8.40/$2.50) saluted in the G2 Lawrence Stakes and the trifecta ($469.80) was tipped among the Top Four selections.

Mourinho (outside) edges out The Cleaner in a deceptive finish

This weekend I'm looking for in-form horses with race fitness because although there are quite a few topliners resuming they are clearly being aimed at bigger targets and longer trips later in the Spring.

Who's hot?

Trainers John, Dan and Chris Meagher have had eight winners and eight placegetters from their last 20 runners. That's a 40% winning strike rate and an incredible 80% for the place in the last five weeks.

Their strike rate has improved since the beginning of the new racing season on August 1 with six winners, three seconds and a third from just 11 starters. (Win 54.5% / Place 90.9%).

Remarkably it got even better last weekend with five runners on Saturday spread across Doomben and the Gold Coast for three winners (Win 60%).

Tomorrow they have two runners - Harada Bay (Doomben Race 7 No. 9) and Comacina (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 1).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers in the late afternoon. ***

Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

First Seal will be our standout favourite here but she has been beaten five times in her last six starts at odds of $3.75 or shorter. Having said that her last eight starts have been at either G1 or G2 level and in that time she's racked up three wins and four seconds so you can't fault her consistency. She's had two barrier trials (she had just the one last prep) and is drawn to be handy to the leaders.

Kermadec hasn't been seen since his barnstorming effort to claim the G1 Doncaster (below) and when you consider the field that he beat he has to be one of the top chances here. He's nominated for both the G1 Cox Plate and the G1 Caulfield Cup so his Grand Final is still two months away and over 2000m+. The question is will he be fully screwed down for this assignment or do we expect him to need the hit-out? Make no mistake though - he's a talent.

Royal Descent was third to Kermadec (above) in that strong G1 Doncaster back in April and followed that with a game third to Criterion in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She's only won twice at Randwick from 13 attempts but she handles it OK because she's placed in nine of her other 11 runs here. Two starts at the Randwick 1400m for a third in the G3 Tramway and a second placing in this race last year when also first-up.

It's Somewhat won easily first-up last prep when well backed at his first Australian start in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. He followed that up with a tidy effort (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes which was one of the best races of the Sydney Autumn Carnival. I'll be watching the bookies boards to see if there is any stable confidence. If so - beware.

Burbero finished almost two lengths ahead of It's Somewhat in that race (above) and has a fitness edge on most of his rivals after two runs back from a break. His last-to-first victory last start in the G2 Missile Stakes a fortnight ago was dynamite. That was his tenth top two finish in his last 12 starts going back to this time last year. The knock - he has never placed at Randwick over 1400m in four previous attempts but he seems to be a different horse now.

Pornichet was fifth in the aforementioned G1 Doncaster before going on to win the Listed Toowoomba Cup (with 60.5kg). He then annihilated them (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup. As a result he is one of the early top picks for the G1 Cox Plate so I can't see him being fully wound up for this and given he's missed a place at his only two fresh runs in this country I'll be looking around him.

Messene has a great record second-up and at this journey (both 5:3-1-0) and should take great improvement from his fresh run. From the inside barrier he should get the gun run here behind natural leader Zaratone in what looks to be a race devoid of any real pace. He's only placed once in his last five runs but if he can recapture the form that saw him claim nine of his first 12 he could be the blowout.

All the rest are $41+. Gust Of Wind is being aimed at the G1 Caulfield Cup after blitzing her rivals (below) in the G1 ATC Oaks in April so this will probably be a tad short. Having said that she did win first-up over 1400m last campaign with a run that had to be seen to be believed. Great to see Complacent back at the races too after more than 21 months off with a tendon problem. He'll no doubt need the hit-out too but he has never missed a top two finish in six starts and can claim a win and a second at his only two tries at 1400m.

Locky's Selections

5. Burbero

6. Messene

11. Kermadec
13. First Seal

Form Line

Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 3 No. 4) beat Inz'n'out by three lengths last start and that gelding backed up seven days later to win by four lengths. As I've said before in this blog I like backing winners because they tend to just win. This bloke has won five from seven (it should be six because he was unlucky two starts ago) and his dry track record is three starts for three wins by a combined margin of 11.5 lengths.

Blue Blood

Lake Geneva (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) is by leading sire and dual G1 winner Fastnet Rock. Her dam Hips Don't Lie won a G2 Reisling Stakes before running seventh to Sebring in the G1 Golden Slipper. She also won two Listed races. All three of her foals to date have fetched $900K+. Her daughter does look well placed here on the minimum of 54kg under the SW+P conditions given she has placed in both the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes (below) and the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

Bookies Nightmare

Gregers (Moonee Valley Race 7 No.1) went up short enough at $3 but punters were happy enough to step into that and she is now a $2.05 chance. She's had six starts here at Moonee Valley for three wins, two seconds and a half length fourth (below) to Temple Of Boom in the G1 William Reid Stakes. In three runs at 1000m she has won twice and finished a narrow second to dual G1 winner Platelet when first-up last prep.

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G2 Lawrence Stakes Day - 15.08.2015

Black Type races in both Melbourne and Sydney and a host of big names return to the track.

The even better news is we should be racing on dry tracks in both states for the first time in months.

Who's hot?

Jockey Tegan Harrison and trainer Tony Gollan have combined five times in the last week for five winners - doubles at Ipswich last Friday and again at Doomben on Saturday plus another winner at Doomben on Wednesday.

They have just one chance tomorrow to see if they can keep their 100% strike rate for the 2015/16 season intact - last start winner El Campeador (Doomben Race 2 No. 6).

Caulfield

*** As of 9am this morning the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

P.B. Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Smokin' Joey is our favourite on the back of successive victories and he will appreciate the w-f-a conditions after conceding a lot of weight to his rivals at his last two starts. He has residual Winter Carnival fitness on his side too whereas six of his eight rivals are first-up. His run in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below) was good coming from well back in a slowly run race.

Dibayani looked awesome cruising home in an 800m jumpout at Flemington on July 31 so it's no surprise to see him well tried in the market even though this is his first start in Australia. Going back through his form he was placed behind the likes of Designs On Rome and Able Friend in the H1 Hong Kong Derby. That's solid form.

Excess Knowledge has had a couple of solid trials in readiness for this first-up assignment and being a Waterhouse horse you'd expect him to be up on the speed and rock hard fit. He did win fresh last prep and Kerrin McEvoy has followed him down from Sydney after guiding him to victory last start in the G3 Doncaster Prelude. He's only missed a place once in five fresh runs.

Petrology had every possible chance last start in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes but Smokin' Joey gave him a head start and then a case of windburn as he went past. Second-up last campaign he was a six length ninth (below) behind Dissident in the G1 Orr Stakes at this track and distance. I find it difficult to entertain him as a winning proposition but he could blunder into the minors.

Mourinho is probably looking for further but his last three fresh runs have produced two wins and a second including victory over Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley back in January. He followed that with an unlucky third behind the same horse (above) in the aforementioned G1 Orr Stakes. He does look like he'll get a wonderful passage in transit here behind The Cleaner from the inside gate.

The Cleaner will start double figure odds here and though he has never won at a distance shorter than 1600m he has placed at 1400m and he has three wins and three placings from eight first-up runs. He's the natural leader and it's unlikely anyone will want to serve it up to him and when that happens he's always hard to run down.

Of the others No Tricks has fitness on her side after contesting the Brisbane Winter Carnival and she is a last start winner. She's never missed a top four placing in her eight starts up to 1600m. I suspect Taiyoo and Big Memory will need the run.

Locky's Selections

3 Mourinho
1 Smokin' Joey
4 Dibayani
2 The Cleaner

Blue Bood

Redzel (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) is by G1 Oakleigh Plate winner Snitzel out of Millrich - herself a winner of the G3 Sweet Embrace Stakes as a two-year-old before placing in the G1 Golden Slipper behind Flying Spur and Octagonal. She also placed in this very race the G3 San Domenico Stakes at three. Her previous progeny include the stakeswinner Danerich - winner of the G3 McNeil Stakes.

Thrown in at the Deep End

No horses were harmed during the taking of this photograph

Vezelay (Caulfield Race 4 No. 10) has risen quickly through the ranks and has proved competitive every time trainers Leon and Troy Corstens have raised the bar. She wasn't far off them in the G1 William Reid Stakes last time out - and that was just her fifth career start. Prior to that she was a close-up third in the G2 Kewney Stakes. This is much easier and down on the minimum weight with the good barrier she should be handy and will give a great sight for a long way.

Roughie

Buon Auspicio (Doomben Race 4 No. 7) has won three from five out of the Doomben 1350m chute and is coming off a last start win. The Bryan Guy stable is flying at the moment and with no weight and a nice draw I think she's a worthwhile each-way bet at what should be double figure odds.

One To Follow

Raposo (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) was tipped here last start and was brave in defeat after a wide run. In fact all his runs this prep have been solid and he looks like the 1800m will suit. He has form around the likes of subsequent winners Volcanic Ash and Herstory and despite the big weight I think he'll prove too good for this lot.

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G2 Missile Stakes Day - 08.08.2015

Not a crackerjack field for the first Group race of the new season especially given that the list of previous winners includes the likes of Campaign King, Guineas, Commands, Lonhro, Spark Of Life, Dance Hero and Sweet Idea. 

But the good horses can't be too far away with the first G1 of 2015/16 the Memsie Stakes to be run at Caulfield in just three weeks time.

Track information and conditions for tomorrow can be found here.

Who's Hot?

Gold Coast based trainer Bryan Guy has had eight winners and three seconds from just 16 starters in the last 16 days. (Win 50% - Place 73.3%)

He has three runners tomorrow - Polynikes (Doomben Race 1 No. 5), Grenache (Doomben Race 2 No. 12) and Amasta (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 3).

* He also has four runners at Ipswich this afternoon *

Class Act

Trust In A Gust (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is clearly the best horse going around tomorrow. As last year's G1 Toorak Handicap winner (below) he has 60kg to contend with but he has shown before he can carry weight. Although he is giving 6kg to all his rivals on strict handicap ratings they should be getting at least 7.5kg. He's never missed a top two finish in four first-up appearances and he has two wins and three placings from five goes at 1200m.

Early Support

Messene (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) went up $4.20 in first markets Wednesday night but that was quickly snapped up and he's now a $3.20 chance. He races well fresh with six starts for three wins and two seconds including a narrow miss in this very event last year behind G1 winning mare Sweet Idea in a much stronger race.

Messene (inside) is edged out by Sweet Idea in last year's  G2 Missile Stakes.

Formlines

Herstory (Flemington Race 3 No. 6) won as she liked last time out and at her previous start she was game behind Volcanic Ash who has since won again. The fourth placegetter Raposo has also won since and was probably a bit stiff not to win again at Moonee Valley last weekend. Five starts at 1400m for two wins and three placings including two goes here at Flemington for a win and a third.

Liberty Island (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) also has form around Volcanic Ash and Raposo. He's drawn well, attractively weighted and Damien Oliver and Chris Waller have combined seven times in the past three weeks for four winners. Back up to 1600m appeals.

Other Bets

Duccio (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) should be ready to peak here after two runs back. Third up last prep he broke his maiden beating Preferment. That horse went on to win the G1 VRC Derby. At his next start Duccio was only collared late by Hampton Court in the Listed Dulcify Quality. That horse won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at his next start. That form reads well for a BM80. Love the engagement of Jimmy Cassidy for this frontrunner.

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