The G1 Grand Slam is now no longer a possibility after Thunder Lady just missed getting us the coin yesterday in the G1 VRC Oaks but you can't win 'em all so it's back to the drawing board for one last crack tomorrow on what looks the toughest day so far.
I'll be focusing on the G1 Darley Classic because it shapes as the race of the day (if not the Spring) and the G1 Emirates Stakes looks a wide open affair. Those races are backed up by an impressive support card of four more Black Type races.
I'll be focusing on the G1 Darley Classic because it shapes as the race of the day (if not the Spring) and the G1 Emirates Stakes looks a wide open affair. Those races are backed up by an impressive support card of four more Black Type races.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Michael Rodd has only had ten rides over the Flemington Carnival but has still managed to bag a winner on each of the three days so far - Bonaria, Hijack Hussy and Allelu. He also found time out in between to travel to Ballarat on Monday for one win from one ride.
He has four rides at Flemington tomorrow - Shining Brooke (Race 1 No. 14), Lazyaxl (Race 4 No. 14), Zonza (Race 8 No. 6) and Sweet As Bro (Race 9 No. 8).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day with the chance of a late shower. ***
Darley Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee: Since this race went to G1 status in 2007 five of the seven winners had their last start at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate weekend, returned $7 or less, were 5-y-o or older and were last start winners.
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead without too much trouble I would think. Moment Of Change to be handy so too Temple Of Boom and Driefontein. Lankan Rupee, Slade Power and Terravista will be up there too. The rest get back to midfield or worse.
Chautaqua is the find of the Spring Carnival. Two starts - both here at Flemington - for two explosive straight track wins by a combined margin of six and a half lengths. He ran slick time on both occasions (sub 1.09) and annihilated handy types in Temple Of Boom and Bounding. He steps up to G1 w-f-a for the first time so this is his stiffest test to date but he looks a future topliner.
Lankan Rupee was ridden aggressively last time out (below) and had to burn the candle at both ends so his effort to hang on and win was enormous. Sure there were excuses for many of the beaten brigade but take nothing away from this bloke. Back to Flemington is a big plus because he clearly isn't at his best at Moonee Valley. A four-time G1 winner including a two and a half length demolition job in the Newmarket Handicap with 56.5kg over this course and distance in March.
Slade Power is the unknown quantity. He was unbeaten in three runs last prep including two victories at the highest level in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes and G1 July Cup. He's a winner of 10 of his 19 starts including nine at this distance and being from the UK the straight course holds no fears for him. He is a bit of a barrier rogue so it all depends on how he behaves but he is certainly good enough to win this if he has settled in OK and handles our track conditions.
Such is the quality of the field that the rest are $21+.
If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then going by the G1 Manikato Stakes formline Famous Seamus has to be in the mix given his slashing run from last on the turn to finish third. His only run here at Flemington was two years ago during Cup Week when he finished 13 of 20 beaten six and a half lengths by Unpretentious in the Listed MSS Security Sprint. Rebel Dane was another who had genuine excuses due to traffic problems and yet was only a quarter of a length away at the finish. Two starts here for no placings. Platelet finished last of twelve but was less than two lengths off the winner after a wide run and she is two from two at the Flemington 1200m. Temple of Boom sat three deep without cover and was beaten half a length and his Flemington "straight six" record is pretty good too (11:2-3-1).
What a fantastic race!
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead without too much trouble I would think. Moment Of Change to be handy so too Temple Of Boom and Driefontein. Lankan Rupee, Slade Power and Terravista will be up there too. The rest get back to midfield or worse.
Chautaqua is the find of the Spring Carnival. Two starts - both here at Flemington - for two explosive straight track wins by a combined margin of six and a half lengths. He ran slick time on both occasions (sub 1.09) and annihilated handy types in Temple Of Boom and Bounding. He steps up to G1 w-f-a for the first time so this is his stiffest test to date but he looks a future topliner.
Lankan Rupee was ridden aggressively last time out (below) and had to burn the candle at both ends so his effort to hang on and win was enormous. Sure there were excuses for many of the beaten brigade but take nothing away from this bloke. Back to Flemington is a big plus because he clearly isn't at his best at Moonee Valley. A four-time G1 winner including a two and a half length demolition job in the Newmarket Handicap with 56.5kg over this course and distance in March.
Terravista was unlucky behind Lankan Rupee (above) because he was held up at a crucial stage before savaging the line and he probably would have won in another two hops. Trainer Joe Pride has been quite bullish about this horse for some time and hoop Hugh Bowman is fresh off his win in the G1 VRC Oaks but he is an unknown quantity down the straight. Seven of his eight wins have been first or second-up but his form deeper into a prep (4:1-1-0) doesn't read as well.
Buffering sat up on the hot speed in the same race as Lankan Rupee and Terravista and he was only beaten half a length and battled away well to the line. He got a soft lead when he won this race last year (below) and he could get one again tomorrow. He's an old warrior who gives his all every time he goes around and is a must for exotics. $14 is quite frankly a ridiculous price.
Slade Power is the unknown quantity. He was unbeaten in three runs last prep including two victories at the highest level in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes and G1 July Cup. He's a winner of 10 of his 19 starts including nine at this distance and being from the UK the straight course holds no fears for him. He is a bit of a barrier rogue so it all depends on how he behaves but he is certainly good enough to win this if he has settled in OK and handles our track conditions.
If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then going by the G1 Manikato Stakes formline Famous Seamus has to be in the mix given his slashing run from last on the turn to finish third. His only run here at Flemington was two years ago during Cup Week when he finished 13 of 20 beaten six and a half lengths by Unpretentious in the Listed MSS Security Sprint. Rebel Dane was another who had genuine excuses due to traffic problems and yet was only a quarter of a length away at the finish. Two starts here for no placings. Platelet finished last of twelve but was less than two lengths off the winner after a wide run and she is two from two at the Flemington 1200m. Temple of Boom sat three deep without cover and was beaten half a length and his Flemington "straight six" record is pretty good too (11:2-3-1).
What a fantastic race!
Locky's Selections
2 Lankan Rupee
10 Chautaqua
1 Buffering
13 Platelet
10 Chautaqua
1 Buffering
13 Platelet
Other bets
Cadillac Mountain (Flemington Race 2 No. 14) was tipped on Oaks Day but Peter Moody scartched him to save him for this so I'll stay solid. He has found a good race here third-up after two solid efforts this time in over unsuitable distances. He wasn't beaten far on either occasion and there were excuses. Third run in his first campaign he won over 2000m and last preparation they saw fit to take on Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 Australian Derby and he wasn't disgraced despite not appreciating the wet tracks. $5 was bet.
Black Jet (Flemington Race 3 No. 14) has started four times at 1600m-1660m and has three wins and a third and he did win third-up last prep. He got run off his legs early last start at Moonee Valley but was doing his best work late and the step up to the mile and the big track at Flemington appeal because he'll get plenty of time to warm up for a big sprint finish. $12.
Rhythm To Spare (Flemington Race 7 No. 15) was Good in the G1 Toorak Handicap (below) where he flashed home from near last to finish fifth beaten just over a length. He should have finished closer because he ran into a bit of traffic in the home straight. Trainer Mike Moroney deserves a change of luck after tragically losing Araldo after the G1 Melbourne Cup and ten of the last fourteen winners of this race returned double figure odds. Opened at $16.
Amanpour (Flemington Race 8 No. 13) was narrowly beaten here on Cup Day and she has obviously come through the run OK because the stable has elected to back-up here. It's the same path followed by 2010 winner Well Rounded. She's a winner up to 1900m whereas many of these are on trial at a trip beyond a mile. I can happily play at the $7.50 that is on offer.
Black Jet (Flemington Race 3 No. 14) has started four times at 1600m-1660m and has three wins and a third and he did win third-up last prep. He got run off his legs early last start at Moonee Valley but was doing his best work late and the step up to the mile and the big track at Flemington appeal because he'll get plenty of time to warm up for a big sprint finish. $12.
Rhythm To Spare (Flemington Race 7 No. 15) was Good in the G1 Toorak Handicap (below) where he flashed home from near last to finish fifth beaten just over a length. He should have finished closer because he ran into a bit of traffic in the home straight. Trainer Mike Moroney deserves a change of luck after tragically losing Araldo after the G1 Melbourne Cup and ten of the last fourteen winners of this race returned double figure odds. Opened at $16.
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