Fantastic days racing last weekend so this Saturday is somewhat of a let down despite the fact that we have some seriously talented horseflesh on display.
The babies continue their march towards the Golden Slipper with the Silver Slipper Stakes in Sydney and the Sports 1000 in Melbourne. The latter features two fillies in Eloping and More Radiant who have form around last week's breathtaking Blue Diamond winner Earthquake.
The top notch three-year-olds are split in two with some chasing the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington whilst others elect to go to the Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill.
Red Tracer resumes and is attempting to win the Millie Fox Stakes for the third year in a row. She won't get it all her own way with Oaks winner Royal Descent and the lightly raced but talented four-year-old A Time for Julia in the mix.
Early Doncaster favourite Ecuador continues his lead-up to the big race in the first event at Rosehill and last year's glamour girl - Blue Diamond winner Miracles of Life - resumes in the Bob Hoysted Handicap at Flemington.
The babies continue their march towards the Golden Slipper with the Silver Slipper Stakes in Sydney and the Sports 1000 in Melbourne. The latter features two fillies in Eloping and More Radiant who have form around last week's breathtaking Blue Diamond winner Earthquake.
The top notch three-year-olds are split in two with some chasing the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington whilst others elect to go to the Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill.
Red Tracer resumes and is attempting to win the Millie Fox Stakes for the third year in a row. She won't get it all her own way with Oaks winner Royal Descent and the lightly raced but talented four-year-old A Time for Julia in the mix.
Early Doncaster favourite Ecuador continues his lead-up to the big race in the first event at Rosehill and last year's glamour girl - Blue Diamond winner Miracles of Life - resumes in the Bob Hoysted Handicap at Flemington.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Team Hawkes has been on fire over the last 10 days. On February 19 they had a two state double (Sandown/Warwick Farm) and they were the only two horses they sent to the races. Two days later they took three horses to the Canterbury Friday night meeting and came away with two winners and a second. The very next day they had another two state double with Not Listenin'tome (Caulfield) and Leebaz (Randwick). Backed that up with three winners from three runners on Wednesday on the Kensington track. Their last 20 starters have returned nine wins and five placings (Win 45% / Place 70%).
Perhaps they can bag another two state double tomorrow. At Flemington they have Hostwin Pegasus (Race 1 No. 2) and at Rosehill they have Mossfun (Race 4 No. 6) and Maysoon (Race 7 No. 3).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for isolated showers in the morning decreasing in the afternoon. ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Quite a few formlines converging here so I guess it just comes down to which you think is the strongest out of the Orr Stakes, the C.S. Hayes Stakes, the Autumn Stakes or the Autumn Classic.
Hucklebuck will start favourite and rightfully so with five wins and two placings from seven starts. He should be unbeaten because he had no luck when flashing home for third at Moonee Valley and the tempo beat him in the G3 Carbine Club at Flemington on VRC Derby Day last November. Regular readers of this blog will know I'm a huge fan and have been with him for a long time. Rider and trainer both lead their respective Adelaide premierships and his two wins this prep have been superb.
Eurozone will probably challenge him for favouritism given he just missed Moment of Change in the G1 Orr Stakes and that horse has subsequently won the G1 Futurity Stakes. Won his only previous second-up attempt (beating Bull Point) and also boasts wins over Dissident and Criterion. Was only three lengths behind Zoustar in the G1 Golden Rose last September.
Shamus Award seems to keep finding a way to get beaten. Granted he has a Cox Plate victory to his credit but that's the only one and although he has eight placings from his other ten starts the fact remains he doesn't win often. Finished third in last year's Caulfield Guineas and that race is looking strong now (Long John, El Roca) and should derive improvement from the first-up run because he seemed to run out of gas late and wanted to hang in behind the leader.
The Quarterback was OK behind Hucklebuck at Flemington but appeared to be safely held. Has come a long way since winning a BM70 at Sale in October but this is a lot harder. Meets Prince Harada and Teronado 1.5kg better this time around but meets Criterion 2kg worse.
Thunder Fantasy surprised a few people first-up with victory over 1400m in his first run since his third placing in the G1 VRC Derby (2500m) back in November. He did get the gun run in transit but he still finished it off powerfully. Second-up last prep he won by five lengths over a mile but that was a Class 1 at Newcastle. Still he's not the worst.
Criterion was doing his best work late last start behind Hucklebuck & Co. and does meet all those rivals 2-3.5kg better off at the weights. He will get well back but should be charging late and he could very well fill a spot in the First Four at good odds.
The rest are all $15+ and of them I think Teronado is one you could entertain in trifectas. He had the fastest final 200m in the C.S.Hayes Stakes and he gives every indication that the 1600m at Flemington will suit him right down to the ground. Another I have been following in this blog as loyal readers will be well aware.
Locky's Selections
5 Hucklebuck
3 Eurozone
1 Shamus Award
9 Teronado
3 Eurozone
1 Shamus Award
9 Teronado
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of heavy rain. ***
Silver Slipper Stakes (Group 2, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Locky's Selections
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Interesting race. Just the field of seven but three of them are unbeaten and two have been beaten just the once. The other two have started once for a second so none of them have ever missed a place in 16 combined career starts.
I'm leaning to Risen from Doubt for the simple fact that despite a dominant debut win in the Maribyrnong Trial at Flemington last Spring the stable put him straight away and did not even think about the Blue Diamond. Tony McEvoy clearly thinks he has a genuine Golden Slipper colt. He spanked subsequent Blue Diamond runner-up Jabali by two and a half lengths on that occasion and Boomwaa was a further length and a half away in third. Tuned up for this with a trial win at Wyong nine days ago.
Modoc hasn't done a lot wrong with two big wins at the provincials followed by an unlucky second on that leaders highway at Mornington when he came from well back. The winner Gold Force did lead all the way on that biased track.
Mossfun is unbeaten and has been well backed in early markets. So too is Law and he beat a subsequent Blue Diamond Preview winner in Mohave when he scored in the Breeders Plate. Unencumbered just continues to win. Hampton Court and Press Report chased home smart ones on debut.
Not a race I'm overly keen on as a betting proposition but for the record my top four selections are listed below. For God's sake don't mortgage your house and load up on this race.
3 Risen from Doubt
4 Modoc
1 Unencumbered
2 Law
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
4 Modoc
1 Unencumbered
2 Law
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Quite a few of these are on Guineas/Derby missions and are also first-up so it's difficult to see them being competitive over the sprint trip. I'm thinking names like Atlante, Savvy Nature, Koroibete and Liberty's Choice.
Of the ones that are already up and running I thought the first three in the Eskimo Prince a fortnight ago were all sound - El Roca, Dissident and Romantic Touch.
El Roca never looked in doubt but he did get all the favours in the run. Dissident chased hard and stayed with him over the last little bit. Romantic Touch meets them both 2kg better off and had better closing sectionals in the race. Got a mile back and was doing his best work late.
Woodbine is up and going too but I suspect he might be a grade below the aforementioned trio.
Of the ones that are already up and running I thought the first three in the Eskimo Prince a fortnight ago were all sound - El Roca, Dissident and Romantic Touch.
El Roca never looked in doubt but he did get all the favours in the run. Dissident chased hard and stayed with him over the last little bit. Romantic Touch meets them both 2kg better off and had better closing sectionals in the race. Got a mile back and was doing his best work late.
Woodbine is up and going too but I suspect he might be a grade below the aforementioned trio.
Locky's Selections
5 El Roca
2 Romantic Touch
1 Dissident
9 Woodbine
Goldslick (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) ran really well fresh against the boys. She was caught wide but kept finding the line in the straight. Back to fillies and mares grade and down on the minimum will suit her a lot better. Second-up last time in she was just over a length behind Molto Bene and British General in a Listed race over this course and distance on Turnbull Stakes Day after being badly held up. Second-up the previous prep she won a mares handicap with 58kg by almost a length and a half, again here at the Flemington 1400m. $7.50.
2 Romantic Touch
1 Dissident
9 Woodbine
Other bets
Goldslick (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) ran really well fresh against the boys. She was caught wide but kept finding the line in the straight. Back to fillies and mares grade and down on the minimum will suit her a lot better. Second-up last time in she was just over a length behind Molto Bene and British General in a Listed race over this course and distance on Turnbull Stakes Day after being badly held up. Second-up the previous prep she won a mares handicap with 58kg by almost a length and a half, again here at the Flemington 1400m. $7.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Gai Waterhouse may seem like a no brainer because she trains winners seemingly every day but her strike rate of late has been even more phenomonal than usual. Last weekend she bagged a treble at Rosehill and a winner from just two runners at Wyong. The previous Saturday she trained four winners at Randwick. She also had a winner during the week at Warwick Farm. Always seems to hit form around carnival time - especially at Randwick.
Gai has horses in Sydney and Melbourne tomorrow and her best chances in no particular order appear to be Nayeli (Caulfield Race 7 No. 13) 15th, Bull Point (Caulfield Race 6 No. 9) 4th, Fiorente (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1) 1st $2.15 win / $1.20 place, Sweet Idea (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) 1st $3.20 win / $1.40 place and Rain Drum (Randwick Race 7 No. 7) 6th. Also has runners tonight at Moonee Valley and Canterbury if you just can't wait until tomorrow.
Blue Diamond Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Earthquake was dominant and is now a firm Golden Slipper favourite. Jabali was the best of the boys. Not sacking Rubick because he did have a tough run in the lead-up.
Locky's Selections
Gai has horses in Sydney and Melbourne tomorrow and her best chances in no particular order appear to be Nayeli (Caulfield Race 7 No. 13) 15th, Bull Point (Caulfield Race 6 No. 9) 4th, Fiorente (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1) 1st $2.15 win / $1.20 place, Sweet Idea (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) 1st $3.20 win / $1.40 place and Rain Drum (Randwick Race 7 No. 7) 6th. Also has runners tonight at Moonee Valley and Canterbury if you just can't wait until tomorrow.
Flemington
Earthquake was dominant and is now a firm Golden Slipper favourite. Jabali was the best of the boys. Not sacking Rubick because he did have a tough run in the lead-up.
Locky's Selections
2 Rubick (4th)
6 Jabali (2nd) $2.90 place
12 Earthquake (1st) $3.00 win / $1.60 place
13 Nayeli (15th)
Exacta 12-6 $26.40
Quinella 6-12 $18.50
Any 2 12-6 $7.40
6 Jabali (2nd) $2.90 place
12 Earthquake (1st) $3.00 win / $1.60 place
13 Nayeli (15th)
Exacta 12-6 $26.40
Quinella 6-12 $18.50
Any 2 12-6 $7.40
Futurity Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Locky's Selections
Moment of Change continues to win and also continues to get under my guard. Sertorius should have won after blowing the start. Therefore I have to be wary of the form coming out of this race going forward because he was a $26 shot over 1400m first-up since winning the G2 Sandown Classic (2400m) in November. Especially as Pinwheel was third and although consistent he hasn't done much for a while. The jury is still out.
9 Bull Point (5th)
2 Moment of Change (1st) $3.30 win / $1.40 place
7 Lidari (7th)
5 Smokin' Joey (8th)
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
2 Moment of Change (1st) $3.30 win / $1.40 place
7 Lidari (7th)
5 Smokin' Joey (8th)
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
Lankan Rupee was outstanding and clearly a cut above the rest. Spirit of Boom is very consistent and Knoydart has been a revelation since being gelded. Gregers was brave after covering ground. I thought they had the rest well covered.
Locky's Selections
3 Lankan Rupee (1st) $4.00 win / $1.90 place
1 Bel Sprinter (9th)
2 Spirit of Boom (2nd) $3.80 place
9 Knoydart (3rd) $2.20 place
Trifecta 3-2-9 $281.80
Exacta 3-2 $55.30
Quinella 2-3 $26.10
Any 2 3-2 $8.80
Any 2 3-9 $4.50
Any 2 2-9 $15.60
Marianne (Caulfield Race 3 No. 4) was spelled after failing on debut last March when well in commission. Resumed in August and bolted in her maiden at Cranbourne first-up on a bog track before coming straight to town to win at Caulfield over this course beating Critical Angel. That filly has since been stakes placed behind Solicit in last weekend's G3 Vanity at Flemington. Finished her Spring campaign by splitting Gregers and Politeness in the G2 Tranquil Star again here at Caulfield over 1400m. Looked great first-up a fortnight ago rattling home from the tail to just miss the in-form Spirits Dance in the G3 Kevin Hayes Stakes. That's three starts here at The Heath for a win and two seconds - both placings being in Group races. Gets a nice pull in the weights here from the top three. $2.80 was bet but it didn't last. 2nd. $1.20 place. Tried hard but the winner is flying. Don't give up on her because there is a nice race in her.
Foreteller (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) takes on some "handy" types here in the last two Melbourne Cup winners Fiorente and Green Moon but he has a run under his belt whereas they do not. Second-up last prep he jumped up in distance to beat Puissance de Lune (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Resumed in great fashion when he stormed home into fourth behind Moment of Change in the Orr Stakes off a moderate tempo. Pace should be genuine with Star Rolling to keep Mourayan honest in front. Jockey "Froggy" Newitt is in good touch too. In the past fortnight he's ridden winners at Caulfied, Hobart, Mornington, Launceston & Bendigo. $6.50. 5th. Great Australian Cup trial. Did a good job to get as close as he did given they walked through the first 1200m in a tick over 1min 15sec before sprinting home. That was the reason Star Rolling was able to lead almost all the way before being pipped on the post. Fiorente's effort to win from well back was enormous under the circumstances.
1 Bel Sprinter (9th)
2 Spirit of Boom (2nd) $3.80 place
9 Knoydart (3rd) $2.20 place
Trifecta 3-2-9 $281.80
Exacta 3-2 $55.30
Quinella 2-3 $26.10
Any 2 3-2 $8.80
Any 2 3-9 $4.50
Any 2 2-9 $15.60
Other bets
Marianne (Caulfield Race 3 No. 4) was spelled after failing on debut last March when well in commission. Resumed in August and bolted in her maiden at Cranbourne first-up on a bog track before coming straight to town to win at Caulfield over this course beating Critical Angel. That filly has since been stakes placed behind Solicit in last weekend's G3 Vanity at Flemington. Finished her Spring campaign by splitting Gregers and Politeness in the G2 Tranquil Star again here at Caulfield over 1400m. Looked great first-up a fortnight ago rattling home from the tail to just miss the in-form Spirits Dance in the G3 Kevin Hayes Stakes. That's three starts here at The Heath for a win and two seconds - both placings being in Group races. Gets a nice pull in the weights here from the top three. $2.80 was bet but it didn't last. 2nd. $1.20 place. Tried hard but the winner is flying. Don't give up on her because there is a nice race in her.
Foreteller (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) takes on some "handy" types here in the last two Melbourne Cup winners Fiorente and Green Moon but he has a run under his belt whereas they do not. Second-up last prep he jumped up in distance to beat Puissance de Lune (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Resumed in great fashion when he stormed home into fourth behind Moment of Change in the Orr Stakes off a moderate tempo. Pace should be genuine with Star Rolling to keep Mourayan honest in front. Jockey "Froggy" Newitt is in good touch too. In the past fortnight he's ridden winners at Caulfied, Hobart, Mornington, Launceston & Bendigo. $6.50. 5th. Great Australian Cup trial. Did a good job to get as close as he did given they walked through the first 1200m in a tick over 1min 15sec before sprinting home. That was the reason Star Rolling was able to lead almost all the way before being pipped on the post. Fiorente's effort to win from well back was enormous under the circumstances.
Monton (Randwick Race 2 No. 1) has a stack of weight but he is taking on some pretty average performers. Four of his six opponents haven't won a race in their last seven starts whereas he is in great form and probably should have won his last three after clipping heels early in the home straight last start and not seeing daylight until inside the 200m only to just miss in a driving finish. The claim for apprentice Sam Clipperton helps and he does know the horse well having partnered him in the aforementioned last three starts. He can be handy in a small field from the good gate. $3.50. 1st. $4.00 win / $1.90 place. Gave them all at least 4.5kg and gave them a lesson. In top form. Follow.
Sweet Idea (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) meets a red hot field as mentioned in my introduction but she is up and running whereas most of these are first-up. It means taking on the hotpot Guelph but her only defeat last Spring was when fresh and she has a big campaign ahead so I have to wonder if she'll be fully screwed down for the 1200m. Zanbagh, Gypsy Diamond and Arabian Gold are coming off arduous Oaks campaigns and will probably need the run. Real Surreal is returning from a year long injury layoff so I can't touch her and at the set weights Sweet Idea has Estonian Princess and Thump covered on past form. Never out of a place in nine starts with four wins and five placings including a third in the G1 Golden Slipper (below) beating home Guelph and seconds in the G2 Silver Shadow and the Magic Millions. She picks herself. $5.00. 1st. $3.20 win / $1.40 place. Solid win. I got $5.00 fixed price.
Any Day Will Do (Randwick Race 8 No. 4) ran out of her skin first-up when just over three lengths behind Appearance in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Prior to that she'd strung three on end last prep culminating in victory in the Goulburn Cup. She'll appreciate getting away from weight-for-age and back to fillies and mares grade and she looks well weighted here on the minimum. Won her only start on a rain affected surface. $8.50. 3rd. $2.00 place. Found the 1200m a little bit short but follow her as she gets up to 1400m-1600m.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Where is all this water coming from?
- Captain of the Kursk, Barents Sea, 12 August 2000
- Captain of the Kursk, Barents Sea, 12 August 2000
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