Friday, 23 August 2013

Warwick Stakes preview

So close but so far last weekend with three of the six selections running second in close finishes (including Cluster at $13) and another top selection placing (although I did have the winner in the top three selections) so it's back to the drawing board this week.

At least the radar is thereabouts and I'm not tipping runners that finish midfield or tailed off so hopefully with a little bit of tweaking (and an ounce of luck!) I can turn placegetters and Any 2's into winners tomorrow.

I feel like a kid on Xmas Eve I'm that excited because it's a magnificent day of racing with some nice horses resuming and surely will be the precursor of great things to come.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


It's Week Five and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Tulloch


On Warwick Stakes Day it is only fitting that we revisit the deeds of this mighty galloper because in 1957 it was the very race that started a remarkable Spring three-year-old campaign that would see him remain undefeated in eight starts.

After beating the older horses at weight-for-age in his first three-year-old start he would go on to capture the Rosehill Guineas before claiming the AJC Derby by six lengths and breaking the track record held by Phar Lap in the process. (Both these races are now held in the Autumn).

He then headed to Melbourne and despite dropping back from the mile and a half to the mile he still claimed the Caulfield Guineas. Seven days later he would beat the older brigade again, this time in the Caulfield Cup. He started a 6/4 favourite and ran the fastest time ever recorded for a mile and a half on turf to that point.

Next stop Flemington and a demolition job in the VRC Derby (12 lengths) before claiming the C.B. Fisher Plate (now the Queen Elizabeth) seven days later on the final day of the carnival, once again in open company. A week after that he finished his campaign with a six length romp in the Queensland Derby which was then run in the Spring. In all Tulloch started 16 times in his three-year-old season for 14 wins and two placings.

Unfortunately for Melbourne fans they would not see the wonder horse in the Spring for three more years as he contracted a severe stomach virus and nearly died and would not return to the racetrack for nearly two years.

Despite the near fatal setback he would go on to win 15 of his last 24 races including victories in the W.S. Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes, Chelmsford Stakes and Craven Plate in the Spring of 1961. During that time he also finished second in both the Colin Stephen Stakes and the George Main Stakes. He also ran 7th in the Melbourne Cup with the massive impost of 64kg.

At the end of his career Tulloch had won 19 races that are now classified as Group 1. He also won three races which are no longer held but were principal races in his day - the AJC Autumn Stakes (twice) and the VRC Queens Plate. In addition he won two other races that were then considered principal races but have since been downgraded or abandoned - the VRC and the AJC St Leger.



LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Dwayne Dunn has combined with the David Brideoake/David Feek training partnership seven times in the last seven weeks for a staggering six winners at a strike rate of 85.7%.

July 14 Crystal River $6.50
July 14 High Aims $5.00
July 24 Ominous Quality $4.80
July 28 High Aims $1.75
Aug 13 Self Sense $3.80
Aug 21 Self Sense $3.20

They combine again tomorrow on High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8).


Warwick Farm




*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)


Rain Affair leads here and probably at his leisure. From the chute they have just the one bend to negotiate so I don't anticipate breakneck speed especially with so many horses resuming who have bigger fish to fry further down the track. He probably controls the tempo and sprints home just like last time out and once again proves too good. Hard to tip against him.

Streama has residual fitness from her Brisbane campaign and can sit handy. She's never missed a place first-up, or at this track, or at this distance. Her record at this track and distance is great (3:2-1-0). Toydini ran a mighty race first-up last time to make up many lengths on an unsuitably wet track. If we're working on the assumption that the older horses are an even lot and last season's three-year-olds are better than he has to be in the mix.

Veyron has won five from six at this trip and races well second-up (5:3-2-0) and he will appreciate a bit of weight relief after lumping 64.5kg last start. He's a genuine trier with 14 wins and eight placings from 29 starts and was less than two lengths behind Pierro in the Group 1 George Ryder (1500m) during the Autumn Carnival.

Last time Metal Bender resumed after more than a year off the scene he stormed home from near last in a field of 15 to finish third to More Joyous in the Canterbury Stakes beaten a length and a half. He comes to hand quickly and he did win this race in 2010.

Locky's Selections

3 Rain Affair
14 Streama
5 Veyron

Silver Shadow Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)

Not a race that I am overly enamoured with as there are several resuming, one who has come off an inconclusive run and a few who are fit but up in grade.

The blinkers go on Sweet Idea so it would appear the stable is serious about this first-up assignment but she fair dinkum trialed like a goat. Twilight Royale won three from five in the Autumn plus second placings to the talented Swing Vote and mudlark Everage on a Heavy 13 when conceding her three kilos. Montsegur was desperately unlucky at Caulfield last Saturday but her final 100m was good when she finally saw daylight. Thump looked good winning a trial and reports from the stable are that she will be ridden more aggressively this campaign and will be closer to the speed. Not keen to have a punt here so I might just sit on my hands but if you put a gun to my head... I'd probably tell you to pull the trigger.

Locky's Selections

6 Thump
3 Montsegur
2 Twilight Royale

Other bets

Lucripetous (Warwick Farm Race 1 No. 3) finally broke through last start for a much needed win and I think he can go on with it. The best weighted of the three main fancies, I think the Waller stable can continue its dominance of Sydney staying races and Nash can add another winner to his four at Hawkesbury yesterday - his fourth quaddie in five weeks. $3.50.

Rebel Dane (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 9) is well placed here with just half a kilo over the minimum. Cruised past them in his trial and that was almost a month ago so Gary Portelli has had plenty of time to get him fit for this assignment. One of last season's good three-year-olds who is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten at the trip. Has had just the one start here at Warwick Farm for a fourth to It's A Dundeel in the Randwick Guineas when he'd probably had enough and didn't run out the mile. Back to a sprint trip he'll be hard to toss and I think whatever beats him will win. $2.70.

High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) will benefit from any rain that falls as she has been dominant in her last two wins on affected ground. She faces a stiff rise in class but that should be offset by the three kilo drop in weight. Has won three from four this time in and with the scratchings is drawn to get the gun run here. As previously mentioned the jockey/ trainer combo is flying. A dry track might be a concern to some but I think she's turned the corner and the StrathAyr surface does race like a dead track most of the time. $4.40.

Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 1) will be well known to followers of this blog as a horse I have been following. He got us the chocolates at $8 last time out when he came from last to win by an ever widening three and half lengths and the stable is now talking about a possible Sydney Spring campaign. Despite a drop back in distance and a rise in the weights I still think he can take care of this lot and he is backable at $3.30.

Kneeling (Morphettville Race 8 No. 9) is Peter Moody's only runner in Adelaide tomorrow and she is an example of a type I like to follow - a mare in form. Followed back-to-back wins in Queensland with a good second behind the talented Henwood. Then came from last in a sit and sprint affair (1st 600m 37.09 / Last 600m 34.86) to be just a length and half off another good one in Octavia. I can entertain her at $6.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Luke Nolen will ride at Moonee Valley tomorrow after having his careless riding ban reduced by one meeting.

"Trumby" was outed for seven meetings at Geelong last week but appealed against both the decision and the penalty. The former was dismissed.

Nash Rawiller isn't so lucky - he's copped a six meeting suspension beginning September 1 for causing interference aboard his first of four winners at Hawkesbury yesterday.

It means the champion hoop will be free to ride Fiorente in the Memsie Stakes next week but will miss the Chelmsford Stakes and Wyong Cup meetings.

Tommy Berry will also be on the sidelines for a stretch after two separate careless riding suspensions at Canterbury on Wednesday.

He can ride tomorrow but begins his suspension the following day and can't resume until September 8, meaning he'll miss the next two Saturday meetings.

Danny Nikolic is in trouble again too but quite frankly I'm sick of hearing about him. If you haven't had enough of him you can read more here.

Meantime stewards have come down hard on five wayward horses, ordering them back to the trials for re-education.

Erratic winner Photon Willie and  barrier rogue Whittington will have to show they can behave, as will Sugar Rush, Studio and Champagne Cath.

Lastly Group 1 winner Ethiopia (below) geared up for his Spring return with an exhibition gallop at Sale yesterday.

He's due to return in the Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington on September 7.



LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Jason Holder has ridden four winners this week including a treble at Strathalbyn on Wednesday. He's ridden eight winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one in four. Has a host of rides tomorrow at Morphettville but just be aware that the track is likely to be rain affected. Three rides for no winners but as I warned it was a Heavy 8.


Caulfield


P.B. Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

I hate to sound like a contestant on "The Einstein Factor" whose special subject is "Stating The Bloody Obvious" but the winner was outstanding. One run in nine months and first-up since March, well documented bone chip problems, on a Cups campaign, back to last in a fast run 1400m race, given just a couple of slaps across the shoulder and won with a leg in the air. Hard to make a case for anything behind him unless they drop back a grade because this Memsie field looks like it will be a corker.

Locky's Selections

1 Second Effort (3rd) $2.20 place.
4 Puissance De Lune (1st) $3.50 win / $1.80 place.
2 Launay (7th)

Any 2 1-4 $3.40


Rosehill



San Domenico Stakes (Group 3, 1100m, set weights plus penalties)

I mentioned five horses in my preview last week - one was scratched at the barrier whilst the others combined to provide a First Four that paid $813.60. But I can't take any credit because I didn't have the winner in my top three.

Great ride by Tim Clark got the chocolates. Cluster and Sidestep the horses to follow going forward because both were unlucky and appeared to need the run.

Locky's Selections

9 Cluster (2nd) $2.50 place.
7 Windjammer (3rd) $1.50 place.
1 Sidestep (4th)

Any 2 7-9 $8.00

Other bets

Lady Melksham (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) looks the best on a good but tough day at Caulfield with some quality thoroughbreds going around. Flies fresh and trialed like a bomb from all reports. A winner of four from five at this trip including this race last year. Not badly in with just two kilos over the limit. $5.00 looks appealing. 5th. Copped a bump on the turn but appeared to have every possible chance. Jockey Glen Boss said after the race that she may simply be a wet tracker. Was only a length away at the finish. Not sacking her just yet.

Coup Ay Tee (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) is a no-brainer here for for mine. An in-form sprinter in a race full of resuming stayers and non-winners. Showed a devastating turn of foot to beat some quality imports in a Listed race last start and drops back to handicap grade here. $2.80 looks like charity. 5th. Ridden upside down. Needs a smother and the final shot at them but instead was ridden outside the lead with no cover. Forgive.


*** Won the Hawkesbury Cup yesterday at $5.80. ***



Catkins (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who does her best racing fresh (three from three) and she's well in here with the three kilo claim. An on-pace runner who is drawn to get a saloon passage in transit. The one the backmarkers will have to run down. $3.50. 2nd. $1.60 place. Had her chance but wasn't too disappointing as she was a newly turned 4-y-o mare taking on the older boys for the first time. There's a nice fillies and mares race in her somewhere this Spring. Follow.

Less Is More (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5) was desperately unlucky last time and I'm sure most racegoers would have seen the run. Hell, I think even Ray Charles saw the run. The wider draw this week should see him get more running room in the straight and he'll take improvement from his last hit-out because he was eight weeks between runs and dropping from 2400m to 1500m. $3.80. 2nd. $2.00 place. Second-up after an eight week break and straight from 1500m to 1800m probably told when he was forced to chase the tearaway leader a long way from home. Plenty of merit in the run.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


It doesn't get much easier than that.
- Glen Boss, Caulfield, 17 August 2013

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