Seven races tipped in for four three winners on top, another in the top three (at $21 no less!), two seconds and just the one unplaced runner. Also tipped the $230+ trifecta in the Warwick Stakes.
It will be a lot harder this weekend because with so many good horses going around there are several winning chances in most races.
It may be a good weekend to go wide and have quinellas, exactas, trifectas and the like.
THE SULTANS OF SPRING
It's Week Six and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.
As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.
I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)
I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)
Lord
Who better than the horse known as "The King of Caulfield" to kick us off on Mesmsie Stakes Day?
It all began in the Spring of 1958 when Lord would claim four topline races - the Liston, Memsie, Underwood and Caulfield Stakes. He proved that was no fluke when 12 months later he would claim the Memsie and Caulfield Stakes again.
Fast forward to 1960 and the now six-year old would win the Memsie (again!), a second Underwood Stakes and a third Caulfield Stakes. As if that wasn't enough he would return for another Spring Carnival the following year and clinch an incredible fourth consecutive Memsie Stakes as well as the Craiglee (now Makybe Diva) Stakes.
That would have been enough for most gallopers - but not Lord. He would campaign again in 1962 and 1963 (as an eight and nine-year-old!) and win back-to-back Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the Flemington Carnival.
He was also placed three times in the Underwood Stakes (1959/62/63), twice in the Queen Elizabeth (1960/61), the Memsie (1962/63), the Craiglee (1962/63) and the Mackinnon Stakes (1958/60) plus once each in the Liston (1959) and the Caulfield Stakes (1962). Some of these were behind the likes of Tulloch, Sky High, Aquanita and Dhaulagiri.
He never contested a Cox Plate as his long stride meant he was not suited at Moonee Valley but he finished his career with 28 wins, all but one of them in Victoria and a staggering 21 victories at his home track of Caulfield. Following his retirement he was a successful show-jumper. He passed away in 1986 at the grand old age of 32.
It all began in the Spring of 1958 when Lord would claim four topline races - the Liston, Memsie, Underwood and Caulfield Stakes. He proved that was no fluke when 12 months later he would claim the Memsie and Caulfield Stakes again.
Fast forward to 1960 and the now six-year old would win the Memsie (again!), a second Underwood Stakes and a third Caulfield Stakes. As if that wasn't enough he would return for another Spring Carnival the following year and clinch an incredible fourth consecutive Memsie Stakes as well as the Craiglee (now Makybe Diva) Stakes.
That would have been enough for most gallopers - but not Lord. He would campaign again in 1962 and 1963 (as an eight and nine-year-old!) and win back-to-back Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the Flemington Carnival.
He was also placed three times in the Underwood Stakes (1959/62/63), twice in the Queen Elizabeth (1960/61), the Memsie (1962/63), the Craiglee (1962/63) and the Mackinnon Stakes (1958/60) plus once each in the Liston (1959) and the Caulfield Stakes (1962). Some of these were behind the likes of Tulloch, Sky High, Aquanita and Dhaulagiri.
He never contested a Cox Plate as his long stride meant he was not suited at Moonee Valley but he finished his career with 28 wins, all but one of them in Victoria and a staggering 21 victories at his home track of Caulfield. Following his retirement he was a successful show-jumper. He passed away in 1986 at the grand old age of 32.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
All bar one of Joe Pride's last 13 runners have finished top four - across 7 different meetings stretching back to August 21. Four winners, four seconds, two thirds and two fourths. Just the one runner in town tomorrow with Brave Soul (Rosehill Race 7 No. 1).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day tomorrow. ***
Memsie Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
This race reminds me a lot of the George Ryder in 2012. The field that day was so hot that many good horses got out to silly prices. A multiple Group 1 winner in Metal Bender won at $16. He edged out a Cox Plate placegetter in Rekindled Interest who was $34 and paid almost $10 the place on the tote. An Epsom winner in Secret Admirer ran third and yet the trifecta paid $4400. Another Group 1 winner in King Mufhasa ran fourth and the first four paid $27K+.
This could very well be another race like that so I am looking for value.
A lot of these horses are capable of running a race fresh if they are trained that way. However many of them are on a Cups path and will not be fully screwed down.
Green Moon, Fiorente, It's A Dundeel, Super Cool, Ferlax , Silent Achiever and Atlantic Jewel fall into that category but they have bigger fish to fry further down the track. Seville and My Quest For Peace are also on similar paths but this is way too short for them under any circumstances you'd think.
After last week I'm also wary of backing horses second-up after a tough fresh run so that leaves question marks over Luckygray and Happy Trails.
That leaves just Ajeeb and Second Effort and I don't know that the Lawrence Stakes form can measure up to what appears a much harder race on paper. So there's a knock on them all.
So my strategy is this - follow the form behind Pierro and All Too Hard from last campaign because it is stacking up and follow last season's three-year-olds (now four) because they still appear to have the wood on the older brigade.
It's A Dundeel on top because he's won two from three fresh with his only defeat being a slashing fourth behind Pierro and Rebel Dane in the Hobartville. Last prep he proved he is not just a dour stayer but has some dash and he's drawn to be not too far away in the run.
Fiorente looks a proper horse with just two starts in this country for a second to Green Moon in The Cup and an eye-catching third to All Too Hard and Rain Affair in the All Aged Stakes. The short straight at Caulfield is a little concern because both his runs have been on big tracks where he's had plenty of time to balance up.
Super Cool to round out the trifecta. Ran well fresh last prep in a leader dominated affair and I think he may well be one out of the box.
Locky's Selections
This could very well be another race like that so I am looking for value.
A lot of these horses are capable of running a race fresh if they are trained that way. However many of them are on a Cups path and will not be fully screwed down.
Green Moon, Fiorente, It's A Dundeel, Super Cool, Ferlax , Silent Achiever and Atlantic Jewel fall into that category but they have bigger fish to fry further down the track. Seville and My Quest For Peace are also on similar paths but this is way too short for them under any circumstances you'd think.
After last week I'm also wary of backing horses second-up after a tough fresh run so that leaves question marks over Luckygray and Happy Trails.
That leaves just Ajeeb and Second Effort and I don't know that the Lawrence Stakes form can measure up to what appears a much harder race on paper. So there's a knock on them all.
So my strategy is this - follow the form behind Pierro and All Too Hard from last campaign because it is stacking up and follow last season's three-year-olds (now four) because they still appear to have the wood on the older brigade.
It's A Dundeel on top because he's won two from three fresh with his only defeat being a slashing fourth behind Pierro and Rebel Dane in the Hobartville. Last prep he proved he is not just a dour stayer but has some dash and he's drawn to be not too far away in the run.
Fiorente looks a proper horse with just two starts in this country for a second to Green Moon in The Cup and an eye-catching third to All Too Hard and Rain Affair in the All Aged Stakes. The short straight at Caulfield is a little concern because both his runs have been on big tracks where he's had plenty of time to balance up.
Super Cool to round out the trifecta. Ran well fresh last prep in a leader dominated affair and I think he may well be one out of the box.
Locky's Selections
9 It's A Dundeel
5 Fiorente
10 Super Cool
5 Fiorente
10 Super Cool
H.D.F. McNeil Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)
If you thought the Memsie was tough well this isn't much easier. A field of eight and four of them are unbeaten plus three others who have big wraps on them.
Miracles Of Life trialed superbly but she has to give weight to the boys although it has to be said she did have their measure in the Autumn. If she's come back bigger and stronger she has to be in the mix.
Prince Harada is the massive spruik horse and is already equal favourite for the Caulfield Guineas despite just two off-season wins at Ballarat and Moonee Valley on wet tracks. He was however crunched in the betting both times and the stable is quite bullish.
For those of you who have been living on Mars, in a cave, with your hands over your eyes and your fingers in your ears - Fast 'n' Rocking was very unlucky last start. Looks a strong form race too.
A lot of tipsters (and a few of my mates) were tipping Thermal Current as a sneaky threat to Miracles Of life in the Blue Diamond before he went amiss. He finally broke through last start and may be able to go on with it now.
Don't fancy Il Cavallo at 1200m and the bottom two both won on debut but in much weaker grade. If you like one of them don't let me talk you out of it though because both are trained by astute men and ridden by multiple Group 1 winning jockeys.
With Miracles of Life and Il Cavallo drawn out I think the speed will be pretty genuine so I'm looking to the swoopers.
Locky's Selections
Miracles Of Life trialed superbly but she has to give weight to the boys although it has to be said she did have their measure in the Autumn. If she's come back bigger and stronger she has to be in the mix.
Prince Harada is the massive spruik horse and is already equal favourite for the Caulfield Guineas despite just two off-season wins at Ballarat and Moonee Valley on wet tracks. He was however crunched in the betting both times and the stable is quite bullish.
For those of you who have been living on Mars, in a cave, with your hands over your eyes and your fingers in your ears - Fast 'n' Rocking was very unlucky last start. Looks a strong form race too.
A lot of tipsters (and a few of my mates) were tipping Thermal Current as a sneaky threat to Miracles Of life in the Blue Diamond before he went amiss. He finally broke through last start and may be able to go on with it now.
Don't fancy Il Cavallo at 1200m and the bottom two both won on debut but in much weaker grade. If you like one of them don't let me talk you out of it though because both are trained by astute men and ridden by multiple Group 1 winning jockeys.
With Miracles of Life and Il Cavallo drawn out I think the speed will be pretty genuine so I'm looking to the swoopers.
Locky's Selections
2 Fast 'n' Rocking
3 Prince Harada
1 Miracles Of Life
3 Prince Harada
1 Miracles Of Life
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day tomorrow. ***
Run To The Rose (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)
Current market
Another difficult race because Eurozone got us the prize last start and Cluster just missed at $13. Throw in the desperately unlucky Sidestep, quality horses like Criterion and Zoustar resuming, the in-form Va Pensiero, highly talented Dissident and the regally bred boom horse Ike's Dream and I don't know where to look. I haven't even mentioned Windjammer and Napayshini who are both in commission.
Another difficult race because Eurozone got us the prize last start and Cluster just missed at $13. Throw in the desperately unlucky Sidestep, quality horses like Criterion and Zoustar resuming, the in-form Va Pensiero, highly talented Dissident and the regally bred boom horse Ike's Dream and I don't know where to look. I haven't even mentioned Windjammer and Napayshini who are both in commission.
A couple of these (Eurozone, Ike's Legacy) have only won on affected ground and this will be run on a drying track. Plus I think the San Domenico was a stronger race than the Rosebud so with the pull in the weights I think Cluster can avenge his narrow defeat. Sidestep will be in the finish with an ounce of luck and Criterion will appreciate the good track more than anyone because his three wins have all been on top of the ground. Many think he's looking for further but I'm convinced he is a run-on sprinter. His run in the Golden Slipper (below) on an unsuitably wet track was outstanding.
Sidestep (2nd) - maroon, white sleeves, maroon cap. Criterion (6th) - yellow. Windjammer (9th) - orange, blue stripes. Va Pensiero (11th) - blue, black sleeves, white cap.
Sidestep (2nd) - maroon, white sleeves, maroon cap. Criterion (6th) - yellow. Windjammer (9th) - orange, blue stripes. Va Pensiero (11th) - blue, black sleeves, white cap.
I'm going wide because there are many chances so I've had to leave out some nice types but you can't tip them all.
Locky's Selections
12 Cluster
1 Sidestep
2 Criterion
1 Sidestep
2 Criterion
Other bets
A few tricky races so I'm looking for each-way value in most cases.
Pelicano (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) was fantastic first-up in the Auries Star. Strung three wins together last prep over 2000m and has jumped to a trip second-up in the past and won. The stable is in good form at the moment and they reckon this bloke Williams can ride OK. Worth a tickle each-way at $10.
Pocket Rockets (Caulfield Race 6 No. 7) sees the same jockey/trainer combo again and was also an eye-catcher last start when he blew the start. If he can jump with them tomorrow the early money ($17 into $9) suggests he can be a player. $10 still available with some operators.
Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) won't be any flash price but he should just win. Unbeaten in three runs first-up and three runs second-up so he flies when fresh and he's unbeaten (six from six) at distances up to a mile. No. 1 rider for the Moody stable Luke Nolen has jumped off the only real danger in stablemate High Esteem to ride this bloke. That'll do me. Looks the best on a tough day. $2.60.
Lunayir (Rosehill Race 8 No. 7) looks an each-way pinch here. His only two career wins have been second-up and he's getting up to a suitable trip here after flashing home fresh in an unsuitable 1400m event. Gets a 2.5kg swing in the weights from favourite Honorius who I think is right at the upper limit of his preferred distance range here. $7.50 looks appetising.
Pelicano (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) was fantastic first-up in the Auries Star. Strung three wins together last prep over 2000m and has jumped to a trip second-up in the past and won. The stable is in good form at the moment and they reckon this bloke Williams can ride OK. Worth a tickle each-way at $10.
Pocket Rockets (Caulfield Race 6 No. 7) sees the same jockey/trainer combo again and was also an eye-catcher last start when he blew the start. If he can jump with them tomorrow the early money ($17 into $9) suggests he can be a player. $10 still available with some operators.
Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) won't be any flash price but he should just win. Unbeaten in three runs first-up and three runs second-up so he flies when fresh and he's unbeaten (six from six) at distances up to a mile. No. 1 rider for the Moody stable Luke Nolen has jumped off the only real danger in stablemate High Esteem to ride this bloke. That'll do me. Looks the best on a tough day. $2.60.
Lunayir (Rosehill Race 8 No. 7) looks an each-way pinch here. His only two career wins have been second-up and he's getting up to a suitable trip here after flashing home fresh in an unsuitable 1400m event. Gets a 2.5kg swing in the weights from favourite Honorius who I think is right at the upper limit of his preferred distance range here. $7.50 looks appetising.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
The Melbourne Racing Club has announced all its feature races this Spring (Cup, Guineas etc.) will be run as the last race on the program, starting with tomorrow's Memsie Stakes.
I'm a big fan. Let's face it, when you go to a concert they don't put the support act on after the main act, do they?
Some people have been critical citing deterioration/hardening of the track and other factors but that's the beauty of living in a free country. I'm free to have my opinion, and they're free to be wrong.
Jockey Nicholas Hall won't have to worry about any of that just yet though.
He'll miss Memsie Stakes Day after copping a 10 meeting ban for careless riding last Saturday but will be back in time to ride Fawkner in the Tramway Handicap next weekend in Sydney.
Unfortunately Tommy Berry won't be available to partner the Queen's horse Carlton House in the same race.
He lost his appeal against the severity of an eight meeting suspension stemming from two separate charges at Canterbury last Wednesday.
Better news for Craig Williams though - he's picked up the ride on Safeguard in next weekend's Danehill Stakes at Flemington.
Kerrin McEvoy will be in Sydney to partner Guelph when she resumes in the Furious Stakes at Randwick.
Lastly trainer Luca Cumani has confirmed Mount Athos will return to Australia this year for another tilt at the Melbourne Cup.
From all reports he has pulled up well after his close second in the March Stakes at Goodowood last weekend and now it is next stop Flemington.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Dwayne Dunn has combined with the David Brideoake/David Feek training partnership seven times in the last seven weeks for a staggering six winners at a strike rate of 85.7%. They combine again tomorrow on High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8). 9th. Did not handle the dry track.
Warwick Farm
Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)
Tempo was frantic and trainer Joe Pride was critical of Nash Rawilller's tactics and it sort of left Streama a sitting duck for a swooper after doing the hard yards and dragging the field up to the tearaway pacemaker. Winner is an above average animal though because that's now 15 wins from 30 starts including six from seven at 1400m and four from six second-up.
Locky's Selections
3 Rain Affair (3rd) $1.40 place
14 Streama (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Veyron (1st) $21.00 win / $4.40 place
Trifecta 5-14-3 $238.80
Quinella 5-14 $41.10
Exacta 5-14 $135.20
Any 2 5-14 $10.10
Any 2 3-5 $7.60
Any 2 3-14 $1.50
14 Streama (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Veyron (1st) $21.00 win / $4.40 place
Trifecta 5-14-3 $238.80
Quinella 5-14 $41.10
Exacta 5-14 $135.20
Any 2 5-14 $10.10
Any 2 3-5 $7.60
Any 2 3-14 $1.50
Silver Shadow Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)
Didn't want anything to do with this race yet still tipped a $9 winner on top and just missed the trifecta.
Runner-up Sweet Idea bled and faces a mandatory three month ban. Remarkable effort to almost win under the circumstances. Don't know that I saw the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas winner here though.
Locky's Selections
6 Thump (1st) $9.00 win / $2.60 place
3 Montsegur (3rd) $1.40 place
2 Twilight Royale (4th)
Any 2 3-6 $5.10
3 Montsegur (3rd) $1.40 place
2 Twilight Royale (4th)
Any 2 3-6 $5.10
Other bets
Lucripetous (Warwick Farm Race 1 No. 3) finally broke through last start for a much needed win and I think he can go on with it. The best weighted of the three main fancies, I think the Waller stable can continue its dominance of Sydney staying races and Nash can add another winner to his four at Hawkesbury yesterday - his fourth quaddie in five weeks. $3.50. 1st. $4.80. Good ride by Rawiller to get off and going before the turn and get the others off the bit because this bloke is a grinder and doesn't possess a great turn of foot.
Rebel Dane (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 9) is well placed here with just half a kilo over the minimum. Cruised past them in his trial and that was almost a month ago so Gary Portelli has had plenty of time to get him fit for this assignment. One of last season's good three-year-olds who is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten at the trip. Has had just the one start here at Warwick Farm for a fourth to It's A Dundeel in the Randwick Guineas when he'd probably had enough and didn't run out the mile. Back to a sprint trip he'll be hard to toss and I think whatever beats him will win. $2.70. 1st. $2.60. Missed the kick and ridden wide without cover. Bossy rode him arrogantly as if he were the best in the race - and he was. Won with a leg in the air.
High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) will benefit from any rain that falls as she has been dominant in her last two wins on affected ground. She faces a stiff rise in class but that should be offset by the three kilo drop in weight. Has won three from four this time in and with the scratchings is drawn to get the gun run here. As previously mentioned the jockey/ trainer combo is flying. A dry track might be a concern to some but I think she's turned the corner and the StrathAyr surface does race like a dead track most of the time. $4.40. 9th. Obviously just a wet tracker.
Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 1) will be well known to followers of this blog as a horse I have been following. He got us the chocolates at $8 last time out when he came from last to win by an ever widening three and half lengths and the stable is now talking about a possible Sydney Spring campaign. Despite a drop back in distance and a rise in the weights I still think he can take care of this lot and he is backable at $3.30. 2nd. Unfortunately weight rise and drop in distance were too much but stick with him. He now heads to Sydney for the Ming Dynasty.
Kneeling (Morphettville Race 8 No. 9) is Peter Moody's only runner in Adelaide tomorrow and she is an example of a type I like to follow - a mare in form. Followed back-to-back wins in Queensland with a good second behind the talented Henwood. Then came from last in a sit and sprint affair (1st 600m 37.09 / Last 600m 34.86) to be just a length and half off another good one in Octavia. I can entertain her at $6. 2nd. Not terrible but had every possible hope. She's on notice because she's becoming a costly conveyance.
Rebel Dane (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 9) is well placed here with just half a kilo over the minimum. Cruised past them in his trial and that was almost a month ago so Gary Portelli has had plenty of time to get him fit for this assignment. One of last season's good three-year-olds who is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten at the trip. Has had just the one start here at Warwick Farm for a fourth to It's A Dundeel in the Randwick Guineas when he'd probably had enough and didn't run out the mile. Back to a sprint trip he'll be hard to toss and I think whatever beats him will win. $2.70. 1st. $2.60. Missed the kick and ridden wide without cover. Bossy rode him arrogantly as if he were the best in the race - and he was. Won with a leg in the air.
High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) will benefit from any rain that falls as she has been dominant in her last two wins on affected ground. She faces a stiff rise in class but that should be offset by the three kilo drop in weight. Has won three from four this time in and with the scratchings is drawn to get the gun run here. As previously mentioned the jockey/ trainer combo is flying. A dry track might be a concern to some but I think she's turned the corner and the StrathAyr surface does race like a dead track most of the time. $4.40. 9th. Obviously just a wet tracker.
Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 1) will be well known to followers of this blog as a horse I have been following. He got us the chocolates at $8 last time out when he came from last to win by an ever widening three and half lengths and the stable is now talking about a possible Sydney Spring campaign. Despite a drop back in distance and a rise in the weights I still think he can take care of this lot and he is backable at $3.30. 2nd. Unfortunately weight rise and drop in distance were too much but stick with him. He now heads to Sydney for the Ming Dynasty.
Kneeling (Morphettville Race 8 No. 9) is Peter Moody's only runner in Adelaide tomorrow and she is an example of a type I like to follow - a mare in form. Followed back-to-back wins in Queensland with a good second behind the talented Henwood. Then came from last in a sit and sprint affair (1st 600m 37.09 / Last 600m 34.86) to be just a length and half off another good one in Octavia. I can entertain her at $6. 2nd. Not terrible but had every possible hope. She's on notice because she's becoming a costly conveyance.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Archers? That's all we've got?
- Henry V, Agincourt, 1415
- Henry V, Agincourt, 1415
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment