As a self-confessed racing tragic this is always a sad day for me because it means no more Group 1 racing until the Memsie Stakes on August 31.
Still, we have one last big day of Stakes races to sink our teeth into so let's see if we can finish season 2012/13 on a high.
Still, we have one last big day of Stakes races to sink our teeth into so let's see if we can finish season 2012/13 on a high.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Nash Rawiller has ridden 15 winners in the last three weeks. Rode a double at Gosford on June 6 then backed up the next day to ride the winners of the Dane Ripper, J.J.Atkins and Brisbane Cup from just four rides at Eagle Farm on Stradbroke Day. The following week he rode winners at both Hawkesbury and Wyong plus a double at Randwick midweek before bagging another treble, this time at Rosehill last Saturday. Rode a winner at both the Kembla Grange and Canterbury meetings this week. Best hope tomorrow appears to be Red Tracer (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 3).
Eagle Farm
*** Since 9am this morning the track has gone from a Dead 5 to a Heavy 8 after just 14mm of rain in the last 24 hours.
The rain has stopped and no more is expected tonight or tomorrow and the forecast is for a fine, sunny day so the track could improve. ***
The rain has stopped and no more is expected tonight or tomorrow and the forecast is for a fine, sunny day so the track could improve. ***
Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
No surprise that Streama has come up favourite here with the inside draw and weight-for-age conditions. A closing fourth in the Doncaster and an unlucky third in a Stradbroke is good enough form to win this. 1400m record is excellent. (5:3-1-1)
Her stablemate Skyerush has been the subject of good early support ($11 into $8.50) and has the advantage of coming into this race fresh. Has never won at 1400m from eight attempts but has placed six times including a second in this race last year. Is in good form having won the Liverpool City Cup, Doncaster Prelude and Emancipation Stakes this time in.
Hard to fault Red Tracer this prep. Six starts for two wins and three seconds including two narrow defeats by Appearance at Group 1 level. Only failure was in the Doncaster and let's face it she just doesn't see out a mile. Has had eight starts on slow or heavy going for six wins, a narrow second to Appearance in the Queen of the Turf and the aforementioned Doncaster failure at 1600m.
Her stablemate She's Clean is a mare in form and it can pay to follow them because they do tend to string wins together sometimes - think Arinosa, Appearance, Skyerush etc. She will handle all conditions too but the last time they stepped her up to 1400m she was beaten three and a half lengths in a fillies and mares Benchmark 80. Worrying.
Peron is a talented filly that I have been following and she's got us the chocolates three times out of three in this blog. Is poorly in at the weight-for-age scale but she is the one on an upward spiral and I feel she will measure up to Group standard so she's in this up to her ears.
Of the rest Spirit Song's run in the Stradbroke was good and she might have finished closer if not for severe interference in the closing stages. Doubtfilly would revel in a really heavy track and was OK at Ipswich last Saturday. Risk Aversion and Yosei will be charging late but I prefer to back horses that make their own luck.
Her stablemate Skyerush has been the subject of good early support ($11 into $8.50) and has the advantage of coming into this race fresh. Has never won at 1400m from eight attempts but has placed six times including a second in this race last year. Is in good form having won the Liverpool City Cup, Doncaster Prelude and Emancipation Stakes this time in.
Hard to fault Red Tracer this prep. Six starts for two wins and three seconds including two narrow defeats by Appearance at Group 1 level. Only failure was in the Doncaster and let's face it she just doesn't see out a mile. Has had eight starts on slow or heavy going for six wins, a narrow second to Appearance in the Queen of the Turf and the aforementioned Doncaster failure at 1600m.
Her stablemate She's Clean is a mare in form and it can pay to follow them because they do tend to string wins together sometimes - think Arinosa, Appearance, Skyerush etc. She will handle all conditions too but the last time they stepped her up to 1400m she was beaten three and a half lengths in a fillies and mares Benchmark 80. Worrying.
Peron is a talented filly that I have been following and she's got us the chocolates three times out of three in this blog. Is poorly in at the weight-for-age scale but she is the one on an upward spiral and I feel she will measure up to Group standard so she's in this up to her ears.
Of the rest Spirit Song's run in the Stradbroke was good and she might have finished closer if not for severe interference in the closing stages. Doubtfilly would revel in a really heavy track and was OK at Ipswich last Saturday. Risk Aversion and Yosei will be charging late but I prefer to back horses that make their own luck.
Locky's Selections
3 Red Tracer
1 Streama
16 Peron
1 Streama
16 Peron
Tatt's Cup (Group 3, 2200m, quality handicap)
Five of the thirteen runners will start this race under double figures so it is a pretty even contest on paper.
The strongest form line for this race appears to be the Brisbane Cup and the best runs from that race were Rothera and Shamardashing. Neither will be hindered by a wet track. Fibrillation and Shenzou Steeds weren't so good in that race and Verdant was so-so.
Ibicenco the main danger to these two but he needs it no worse than dead. Less than two lengths behind Solzhenitsyn first-up in an unsuitably short race then stayed at the mile and wasn't bad behind Tokamak in the Strawberry Road Handicap. A Sandown Cup winner in the Spring who should also have nearly won The Lexus on VRC Derby Day but for interference in the straight.
I can't have Zabeelionaire because in three of his last four starts he has not beaten a single runner home.
The strongest form line for this race appears to be the Brisbane Cup and the best runs from that race were Rothera and Shamardashing. Neither will be hindered by a wet track. Fibrillation and Shenzou Steeds weren't so good in that race and Verdant was so-so.
Ibicenco the main danger to these two but he needs it no worse than dead. Less than two lengths behind Solzhenitsyn first-up in an unsuitably short race then stayed at the mile and wasn't bad behind Tokamak in the Strawberry Road Handicap. A Sandown Cup winner in the Spring who should also have nearly won The Lexus on VRC Derby Day but for interference in the straight.
I can't have Zabeelionaire because in three of his last four starts he has not beaten a single runner home.
Locky's Selections
1 Ibicenco
6 Shamardashing
Healy Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, quality handicap)
In what looks a pretty open race I'm happy to take $10 about River Lad on an each-way basis. Has had seven goes at the Eagle Farm 1200m for three wins and two minor placings. Has won five times at the track and five times at the distance. Wasn't far away when placed behind Famous Seamus in the Hinkler Handicap and then the Prime Ministers Cup. Last start was better than it looked because he was dropping from the 1300m to the 1000m and he got run off his feet early and was back worse than midfield. Was charging home at the end though and back to his pet track and distance this week. Won this race last year.
Happy to risk the favourite Howmuchdoyouloveme because he'll have to set a weight carrying record to win. The highest weight lumped to victory was the 59.5kg impost shouldered by Tiny's Finito way back in 1991. Since that day almost a quarter of a century ago only four winners have carried more than 55.5kg, and just one horse (Blazing Reality, 1997) has completed the Lightning Handicap-Healy Stakes double.
Riva De Lago has some claims because the Waller stable has won just about everything in the last month except for the French Open and jockey Hugh Bowman is flying. His last five starts have yielded two wins and three seconds in races like The Liverpool City Cup, Ajax Stakes and the Luskin Star behind some handy, in-form types in the like of Skyerush, Havana Rey and Fontelina. The concern is that his best form has been at 1300m and beyond whereas his 1200m record is average (6:1-0-3). He's also been up longer than Stonehenge.
Of the rest Griffon will have his admirers but he doesn't win often and always seems to run into bad luck due to his racing pattern. Barrier 12 is no help in that regard. Skytrain tends to mix his form but will grow a leg if the track is a bog come Race 8. Gundy Son has a sense of timing about him after his flashing run last start and he does like this track and distance.
Locky's Selections
3 River Lad
5 Gundy Son
4 Riva De Lago
4 Riva De Lago
Other bets
Someday (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 14) just missed Tokamak last start and meets him 1.5kg better off tomorrow at the same track and distance. Has never won at the mile but his last run seems to indicate he's looking for it now at this stage of his career. Stable has produced a few winners at Eagle Farm so far this carnival. (Benny's Buttons, Belltone, Sizzling) $3.50.
Border Rebel (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) was one we tipped as a roughie with a place chance last start and he was just edged into fourth in the QTC Cup at $15. He was beaten just a half a length that day by the likes of Galah, subsequent Eye Liner winner Conservatorium and Griffon. Will get a heavy track tomorrow and he's four from four in those sort of conditions. He's $4 now but get in early because as much as $4.80 was bet in early markets.
Nothing Like Luca (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) has been a revelation since being transferred to the O'Shea yard. He's won three from three in the last month and I'm happy to take $4 tomoorow to say he can do it again.
Fulgur (Randwick Race 8 No. 3) comes off back-to-back wins in Victoria and that man Waller appears to have found the key to this former international. Tried at 2000m before being dropped back to the mile where he seems to be at his best. Is backable at $4.60.
The Bowler (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) showed promise as an early two-year-old when a narrow second to Kuroshio in the Blue Diamond Prelude (Colts & Geldings) on debut. Spelled after failing in the Blue Diamond but has resumed with back-to-back wins. Has to contend with a wide barrier and a big weight but just looks better than these. Should get $5.
Border Rebel (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) was one we tipped as a roughie with a place chance last start and he was just edged into fourth in the QTC Cup at $15. He was beaten just a half a length that day by the likes of Galah, subsequent Eye Liner winner Conservatorium and Griffon. Will get a heavy track tomorrow and he's four from four in those sort of conditions. He's $4 now but get in early because as much as $4.80 was bet in early markets.
Nothing Like Luca (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) has been a revelation since being transferred to the O'Shea yard. He's won three from three in the last month and I'm happy to take $4 tomoorow to say he can do it again.
Fulgur (Randwick Race 8 No. 3) comes off back-to-back wins in Victoria and that man Waller appears to have found the key to this former international. Tried at 2000m before being dropped back to the mile where he seems to be at his best. Is backable at $4.60.
The Bowler (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) showed promise as an early two-year-old when a narrow second to Kuroshio in the Blue Diamond Prelude (Colts & Geldings) on debut. Spelled after failing in the Blue Diamond but has resumed with back-to-back wins. Has to contend with a wide barrier and a big weight but just looks better than these. Should get $5.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
The Royal Ascot carnival has been the big news this week. Just briefly:
Queen Elizabeth created history by becoming the first British reigning monarch to win the Gold Cup when her three-year-old filly Estimate held on in a driving finish.
It was an emotional day because just 40 minutes earlier Lady Cecil, the widow of Sir Henry Cecil, sent out Riposte to win the Ribblesdale Stakes just a week after her late husband lost his long battle with cancer.
The Aussies haven't fared so well with the Danny O'Brien trained Shamexpress a distant ninth in the Kings Stand Stakes, while Animal Kingdom (part owned by Arrowfield Stud) flopped in the Queen Anne Stakes as a heavily backed favourite.
In suspension news Glen Boss has been rubbed out for 25 meetings after pleading guilty to careless riding at Mornington last week.
Boss admitted responsibility for a fall which saw fellow jockey Kane Bradley hospitalized with facial injuries, but Bossy was due to have some time off anyway after having a minor leg operation two days ago.
Meantime Glyn Schofield has copped a six meeting ban for careless riding on The Graet Snowman in Race 7 at Rosehill last Saturday.
Danny Nikolic's lawyers claim racing authorities do not have the power to charge the jockey with misconduct because he is disqualified and therefore is no longer a licensed person.
Nikolic has been charged with intimidating racing Victoria steward Wade Hadley during his unsuccessful appeal against a two-year disqulaification.
On a positive note Nathan Berry will join his brother Tommy in the Sha Tin jockey's room on Sunday after answering an SOS from the Hong Kong Jockey Club.
Injuries and suspensions to a number of riders forced the move.
Less than a fortnight after claiming the Stradbroke with Linton trainer John Sadler could be facing the loss of talented gelding Ossenhagen.
The owners have received an offer from Hong Kong to purchase the three-year-old after successive victories by big margins in the last month.
And a lucky escape for Kiwi hoop Rogan Norvall after a six-metre deep sinkhole (below) opened up underneath him and his mount Buckles at Ellerslie last weekend.
Horse and rider came to grief but luckily both suffered only superficial injuries.
Queen Elizabeth created history by becoming the first British reigning monarch to win the Gold Cup when her three-year-old filly Estimate held on in a driving finish.
It was an emotional day because just 40 minutes earlier Lady Cecil, the widow of Sir Henry Cecil, sent out Riposte to win the Ribblesdale Stakes just a week after her late husband lost his long battle with cancer.
The Aussies haven't fared so well with the Danny O'Brien trained Shamexpress a distant ninth in the Kings Stand Stakes, while Animal Kingdom (part owned by Arrowfield Stud) flopped in the Queen Anne Stakes as a heavily backed favourite.
In suspension news Glen Boss has been rubbed out for 25 meetings after pleading guilty to careless riding at Mornington last week.
Boss admitted responsibility for a fall which saw fellow jockey Kane Bradley hospitalized with facial injuries, but Bossy was due to have some time off anyway after having a minor leg operation two days ago.
Meantime Glyn Schofield has copped a six meeting ban for careless riding on The Graet Snowman in Race 7 at Rosehill last Saturday.
Danny Nikolic's lawyers claim racing authorities do not have the power to charge the jockey with misconduct because he is disqualified and therefore is no longer a licensed person.
Nikolic has been charged with intimidating racing Victoria steward Wade Hadley during his unsuccessful appeal against a two-year disqulaification.
On a positive note Nathan Berry will join his brother Tommy in the Sha Tin jockey's room on Sunday after answering an SOS from the Hong Kong Jockey Club.
Injuries and suspensions to a number of riders forced the move.
Less than a fortnight after claiming the Stradbroke with Linton trainer John Sadler could be facing the loss of talented gelding Ossenhagen.
The owners have received an offer from Hong Kong to purchase the three-year-old after successive victories by big margins in the last month.
And a lucky escape for Kiwi hoop Rogan Norvall after a six-metre deep sinkhole (below) opened up underneath him and his mount Buckles at Ellerslie last weekend.
Horse and rider came to grief but luckily both suffered only superficial injuries.
LOOKING BACK
Eagle Farm
Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m, quality handicap)
Last week I wrote:
"Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).
"Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).
Next best are probably Muirfield, High Kin and Topping who all have some wet track form."
Locky's Selections
11 Za Magic (3rd) $3.00 place
14 Planetarium (9th)
14 Planetarium (9th)
1 Viola Ici (5th)
Eye Liner Stakes (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)
Last week I wrote:
"Conservatorium comes off good Adelaide and Brisbane form and is also drawn to get a good run in transit but will have to concede six kilos to the three-year-old. He can be right in it when the whips are cracking."
Locky's Selections
15 Dances On Stars (13th)
1 Conservatorium (1st) $7.10 win / $2.80 place
8 Celtic Dancer (11th)
Gai Watehouse Classic (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)
Last week I wrote:
"Followers of this blog will know that I am a big fan of Peron and have been following her for some time. The wet track is the only knock becauase her only failure to date was a third on a slow track at Doomben in February but that was tempo related. The leader that day walked in front then sprinted home while this filly was back near last after a slow start. Plus it was her first go at a mile. Back to 1350m from a cosy draw and in on the minimum she does look the one."
Locky's Selections
11 Peron (1st) $4.00 win / $1.90 place
3 Classics (4th)
1 Whateverwhenever (5th)
Other bets
Sessions (Rosehill Race 6 No. 9) won't be any flash price but should get the chocolates. He's put in a couple of nice trials in the lead-up to this and has won two from two fresh. Hopefully we can get $2.50. 1st. $2.40 win / $1.40 place.
Mr O'Ceiren (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) did enough first-up to suggest he can be right in this and although $4 was available early they've come for him and he's now into $3.30. Second-up form is sound (4:1-1-1) and boasts three wins and a second from four goes at the journey. 1st. $3.50 win / $1.70 place.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
You want me to paint it where?
- Michelangelo, Sistine Chapel, 1508 A.D.
- Michelangelo, Sistine Chapel, 1508 A.D.
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