Super Saturday.
That says it all.
Three Group 1 races. Two Group 2's. Every single race a Stakes race. A tick under $3.5 million up for grabs.
That says it all.
Three Group 1 races. Two Group 2's. Every single race a Stakes race. A tick under $3.5 million up for grabs.
Time honoured races like the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and Brisbane Cup. The two-year-olds fight it out in the J.J.Atkins. The fillies and mares lock horns in the Dane Ripper. What a day.
Some good support meetings are on offer too with the feature at Royal Randwick the Listed June Stakes for the speedsters, whilst the more dour types will slug it out over the 3200m in the Stayers Cup. At Flemington the three-year-olds will contest the $120,000 Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes over 1200m.
Let's find some winners.
Some good support meetings are on offer too with the feature at Royal Randwick the Listed June Stakes for the speedsters, whilst the more dour types will slug it out over the 3200m in the Stayers Cup. At Flemington the three-year-olds will contest the $120,000 Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes over 1200m.
Let's find some winners.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Kelso Wood has trained a winner at every meeting during the Winter Carnival so far with the exception of Doomben 10,000 Day, with Benny's Buttons (BRC Dash), Belltone (BRC Sprint) & Sizzling (Qld Guineas) all successful. In all he had eight winners and four placegetters from just 21 runners (Win 38% / Place 57%) in the month of May. He only has about a dozen horses in work so to qualify three runners for the Stradbroke (Belltone, Spirit Song, Sizzling) is phenomenal Also has My Boy Brando (Race 1 No.1) and Someday (Race 2 No. 12).
Eagle Farm
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The track has had no rain or irrigation in the last week. The forecast is for scattered, isolated showers near the coast in the afternoon.
I am working on the assumption the track will be no worse than dead. I will however include pointers to a few mudlarks in case the forecast showers are heavier than expected. ***
I am working on the assumption the track will be no worse than dead. I will however include pointers to a few mudlarks in case the forecast showers are heavier than expected. ***
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, open handicap)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Better Than Ready/Sizzling.
Only four favourites have won in the last 18 years. In the last 16 years Black Piranha and Show A Heart are the only winners to have carried more than 54kg. 11 of the last 14 winners paid $13 or less. Four of the last 10 winners were three-year-olds.
WET TRACKERS : Streama, Your Song, Hot Snitzel, Better Than Ready, Sizzling
I might sit on my hands here because I already have Your Song running at $6 and Buffering running at $13 (each way) and I think of the top fancies they fared best at the barrier draw. The reaction in the marketplace seems to confirm that.
I'm forgiving Your Song his second-up failure because I think the first-up run may just have knocked the wind out of his sails. The run before that was awesome and he handles both wet and dry tracks. Trainer and jockey have had plenty of recent success. Just appears that he will get the best run in transit with good gate speed and barrier 8 once the emergencies come out.
Buffering set a blistering tempo in the Doomben 10,000 and had every right to throw up the white flag half way down the straight but he had the cheek to fight on and hang on for third beaten just over two lengths. When you consider some recent Stradbrokes have had a bottom weight of around 48kg I don't think he is that badly in with 58kg at just 6kg over the minimum. He will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race.
Sizzling will come into barrier 14 if the emergencies come out and that is a better draw for him than say barrier 2. You can't deny he loves Eagle Farm with five wins and an unlucky second from six starts and if the rain comes he will grow a leg. However he did only beat D-graders last week.
Epaulette seems to race best when his runs are spaced. He ran a cracking second to Black Caviar first-up off a break before he disappointed a fortnight later when well tried in the All Aged Stakes. He was then given a month off and bounced back in the 10,000 although he did get a charmed run. Just worried about the 14 day back up and the horror draw.
Better Than Ready has been set for this (but so have many others) and is well weighted but his last two runs have only been fair. Having said that lightly weighted three-year-olds have a good record in this race and he will appreciate the drop from weight-for-age to handicap conditions.
Others with chances are Solzhenitsyn who is a genuine Group 1 horse who won't know himself with just the 56kg. Fontelina is drawn to get the run of the race and got us the chocolates last time out. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too.
WET TRACKERS : Streama, Your Song, Hot Snitzel, Better Than Ready, Sizzling
I might sit on my hands here because I already have Your Song running at $6 and Buffering running at $13 (each way) and I think of the top fancies they fared best at the barrier draw. The reaction in the marketplace seems to confirm that.
I'm forgiving Your Song his second-up failure because I think the first-up run may just have knocked the wind out of his sails. The run before that was awesome and he handles both wet and dry tracks. Trainer and jockey have had plenty of recent success. Just appears that he will get the best run in transit with good gate speed and barrier 8 once the emergencies come out.
Buffering set a blistering tempo in the Doomben 10,000 and had every right to throw up the white flag half way down the straight but he had the cheek to fight on and hang on for third beaten just over two lengths. When you consider some recent Stradbrokes have had a bottom weight of around 48kg I don't think he is that badly in with 58kg at just 6kg over the minimum. He will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race.
Sizzling will come into barrier 14 if the emergencies come out and that is a better draw for him than say barrier 2. You can't deny he loves Eagle Farm with five wins and an unlucky second from six starts and if the rain comes he will grow a leg. However he did only beat D-graders last week.
Epaulette seems to race best when his runs are spaced. He ran a cracking second to Black Caviar first-up off a break before he disappointed a fortnight later when well tried in the All Aged Stakes. He was then given a month off and bounced back in the 10,000 although he did get a charmed run. Just worried about the 14 day back up and the horror draw.
Better Than Ready has been set for this (but so have many others) and is well weighted but his last two runs have only been fair. Having said that lightly weighted three-year-olds have a good record in this race and he will appreciate the drop from weight-for-age to handicap conditions.
Others with chances are Solzhenitsyn who is a genuine Group 1 horse who won't know himself with just the 56kg. Fontelina is drawn to get the run of the race and got us the chocolates last time out. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too.
Locky's Selections
8 Your Song
1 Buffering
17 Better Than Ready
Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Hawkspur.
No winner has paid more than $11 since 1987. Nine of the last ten winners have paid $6 or less. Only two favourites have won in the last eight years. Four of the last seven winners had won at their last start.
WET TRACKERS : Hawkspur, Survived, Ali Vital, Zagami, Ambitious Champion
WET TRACKERS : Hawkspur, Survived, Ali Vital, Zagami, Ambitious Champion
I see no reason not to follow Hawkspur here. He's won the two traditional lead-up races in the Rough Habit Plate and the Grand Prix Stakes and he's won them dominantly. He handles wet and dry tracks. Last preparation he took three runs to get fit then strung three wins on end. He's on a similar path this time in. Savaged the line at his last start and was going as well as anything at the end and gives every indication the 2400m will be no problem. Some will say he was flattered in his last two wins by cosy runs but in all likelihood he'll get the same again tomorrow. If the emergencies come out he'll start from barrier three whereas all his main opposition will start from out wide. A clear top selection for mine and at backable odds.
Honorius the next best because he'll also likely get a saloon passage in transit from barrier two. But only if the rain stays away. Hopeless in the wet. I liked the way he ground to the line behind Hawkspur last start and he is another who looks like he'll eat up the 2400m.
Gondokoro (14), Survived (17), Rhythm To Spare (19), Ambitious Champion (20) & Electric Fusion (22) have all drawn horrible barriers so I've steered away from them although all have genuine claims.
Honorius the next best because he'll also likely get a saloon passage in transit from barrier two. But only if the rain stays away. Hopeless in the wet. I liked the way he ground to the line behind Hawkspur last start and he is another who looks like he'll eat up the 2400m.
Gondokoro (14), Survived (17), Rhythm To Spare (19), Ambitious Champion (20) & Electric Fusion (22) have all drawn horrible barriers so I've steered away from them although all have genuine claims.
Locky's Selections
18 Gondokoro
2 Honorius
J.J.Atkins Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)
WET TRACKERS : Zoustar, Sir Moments, Dowdstown Charlie
Should be good speed here unlike the Sires Produce with Romantic Touch sure to lead them a merry dance. He was super impressive in winning at Canterbury last start by a big margin in slick time but can he back it up on the bigger track at Eagle Farm? I'm not taking $2.80 to find out.
The Waller duo Zoustar and Vilanova were the best runs in the Sires. I'm going to opt for Vilanova simply because of the likely price difference and the fact I think he looks more like a miler whereas Zoustar gives the impression he is a 1200m-1400m horse.
There were other runs in the Sires that were sound because it was a muddling affair. The speed dropped out of it mid-race and Vilanova and Hooked got pushed wide and forward earlier than they wanted, while Zoustar got the cushy run on the rails. Which he could get again tomorrow from barrier five - who knows? Paximadia was another who had excuses because that dawdling tempo saw her shuffled back in the field before storming home at the finish. Global Dream was another who made good ground late.
Sir Moments comes out of what I suppose you'd call the B-grade form but his win last weekend when he was last into the straight before launching a sustained run down the centre of the track was full of merit.
Locky's Selections
3 Vilanova
1 Zoustar
5 Hooked
1 Zoustar
5 Hooked
Brisbane Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)
WET TRACKERS : Volia Ici, Quintessential, Fiumicino, Lightinthenite, Rothera, Shenzou Steeds, Zennista, Shamardashing
Pretty open race here which is indicated by the fact they'll probably end up betting $5 the field. If it rains during the day Quintessential will be the big market mover so watch the skies. She's shown a real liking for wet tracks in Queensland during the Winter Carnival with the Oaks, Chairmans Handicap and Eagle Farm Cup all on her CV. Jockey Damian Browne is flying too with a double at the Sunshine Coast on May 26, a treble at the same venue five days later followed by a winning double at Eagle Farm last weekend. In fact he's only missed a drum twice in his last 13 rides with seven winners and four placings.
Moriarty is the one I had on top earlier in the week but the threat of rain and the terrible barrier draw have really dented my confidence. But he can be right in the finish if the track stays dry and he gets a good run in transit.
Precedence looked great in wnining the Premiers Cup and if it was any other horse you'd think it was a slashing Brisbane Cup trial but let's face it he doesn't win very often. That was just his second win since the 2010 Moonee Valley Cup.
As for the others Less Is More and Zennista weren't far away in the Premiers Cup and meet Precedence two kilos better off while Viola Ici and Fiumicino have genuine claims if the rain comes. Interesting to note too that big race jockey Glen Boss has jumped off heavily backed last start failure Midsummer Sun to ride Lightinthenite who will appreciate a big drop in class after contesting races like the Doncaster, Hollindale Stakes and Doomben Cup.
Moriarty is the one I had on top earlier in the week but the threat of rain and the terrible barrier draw have really dented my confidence. But he can be right in the finish if the track stays dry and he gets a good run in transit.
Precedence looked great in wnining the Premiers Cup and if it was any other horse you'd think it was a slashing Brisbane Cup trial but let's face it he doesn't win very often. That was just his second win since the 2010 Moonee Valley Cup.
As for the others Less Is More and Zennista weren't far away in the Premiers Cup and meet Precedence two kilos better off while Viola Ici and Fiumicino have genuine claims if the rain comes. Interesting to note too that big race jockey Glen Boss has jumped off heavily backed last start failure Midsummer Sun to ride Lightinthenite who will appreciate a big drop in class after contesting races like the Doncaster, Hollindale Stakes and Doomben Cup.
Locky's Selections
4 Quintessential
3 Moriarty
6 Lightinthenite
6 Lightinthenite
Other bets
Transporter (Eagle Farm Race 2 No. 3) will appreciate the drop back in grade after he backed up a third to Lights Of Heaven and Foreteller in the Hollindale Stakes with a close second to Solzhenitsyn in the Lord Mayors Cup. Prior to that had back-to-back victories here in Brisbane over this journey including one six length demolition. Four wins and three seconds from eight attempts at the mile, and four wins and three placings from nine starts at Eagle Farm. Should be able to get $3.50.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance.
Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30.
The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy.
Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance.
Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30.
The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy.
Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
Rhys McLeod and Damian Browne have both been handed eight meeting suspensions for separate incidents at Eagle Farm last weekend.
McLeod was outed for causing interference aboard Gondokoro in the Oaks whilst Browne got his stint on the sidelines for careless riding during his Eagle Farm Cup win on Quintessential.
Both suspensions start after tomorrow leaving McLeod free to ride Gondokoro in the Derby and Browne free to partner Buffering in the Stradbroke.
Hoop James McDonald's fortunes have been better. The Kiwi young gun has claimed his first winner in the UK at just his second ride with victory aboard Cable Bay at Leicester.
The 21-year-old is spending a few months with the Charlie Hill stable as a learning experience but plans to return to his Sydney base in July.
Meanwhile boom apprentice Chad Schofield has outridden his city claim.
The 19-year-old bagged his 80th city winner on Wednesday when he saluted aboard Brand New Choice at Moonee Valley.
More Joyous has run her last race. She's been retired to stud and has a date with English champion Frankel later this year.
The mighty mare won 21 of her 33 career starts including eight Group 1's and more than $4.5 million in stakes.
And Zabeel is closing in on the record of 45 individual Group 1 winners held by his father Sir Tristram.
Gondokoro's Queensland Oaks win gave Zabeel his 43rd individual Group 1 winner, just two behind his famous sire, and although he is rising 27 he will still serve a select band of broodmares this Spring.
McLeod was outed for causing interference aboard Gondokoro in the Oaks whilst Browne got his stint on the sidelines for careless riding during his Eagle Farm Cup win on Quintessential.
Both suspensions start after tomorrow leaving McLeod free to ride Gondokoro in the Derby and Browne free to partner Buffering in the Stradbroke.
Hoop James McDonald's fortunes have been better. The Kiwi young gun has claimed his first winner in the UK at just his second ride with victory aboard Cable Bay at Leicester.
The 21-year-old is spending a few months with the Charlie Hill stable as a learning experience but plans to return to his Sydney base in July.
The 19-year-old bagged his 80th city winner on Wednesday when he saluted aboard Brand New Choice at Moonee Valley.
More Joyous has run her last race. She's been retired to stud and has a date with English champion Frankel later this year.
The mighty mare won 21 of her 33 career starts including eight Group 1's and more than $4.5 million in stakes.
Gondokoro's Queensland Oaks win gave Zabeel his 43rd individual Group 1 winner, just two behind his famous sire, and although he is rising 27 he will still serve a select band of broodmares this Spring.
LOOKING BACK
I worked on the assumption the track would be fairly heavy and it got us the coin early in the day but the forecast shower never came and the track was upgraded after Race 5. Which funnily enough is when my tips started to go south.
Who's hot?
I tipped Brad Rawiller and Damian Browne as the jockeys to follow. Browne had three rides for two winners and Rawiller had one ride for one second, funnily enough behind Browne when they ran the quinella in the Eagle Farm Cup aboard Quintessential and Manighar.
Eagle Farm
Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, three-year-old fillies set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Gondokoro. 1st. $5.10 win / $2.10 place
I did manage to find the trifecta amongst the top fancies I discussed, I just didn't put two of them in my top three!
"Vaquera however has drawn well, races on the speed and has won on slow. Gondokoro was the one I liked on top early in the week but the wet track and the fact she'll probably get well back makes it hard to step into $4. Miss Zenella (5 starts) and Porcellanus (2 starts) look like good horses in the making but I don't think they are seasoned enough for what could be a slogging mile and a half through poor conditions."
"Vaquera however has drawn well, races on the speed and has won on slow. Gondokoro was the one I liked on top early in the week but the wet track and the fact she'll probably get well back makes it hard to step into $4. Miss Zenella (5 starts) and Porcellanus (2 starts) look like good horses in the making but I don't think they are seasoned enough for what could be a slogging mile and a half through poor conditions."
Locky's Selections
3 Soapy Star (15th)
1 Dear Demi (7th)
8 Vaquera (3rd) $3.50 place
Queensland Guineas (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
I also wasn't far away with my tips in this race either.
"Won't worry Sizzling though because he swims through it and will really appreciate getting back to his home track at Eagle Farm. Blinkers go on too."
"Won't worry Sizzling though because he swims through it and will really appreciate getting back to his home track at Eagle Farm. Blinkers go on too."
Locky's Selections
1 Sizzling (1st) $4.40 win / $1.90 place
19 Lilliburlero (7th)
Eagle Farm Cup (Group 2, 2200m, w-f-a)
I picked this one like a dirty nose.
"Quintessential is going to encounter almost identical conditions to this very same day last year when she won the Queensland Oaks on a Heavy 10. Just like she did a fortnight ago too for that matter in the Chairmans Handicap. I've already got $11 so that'll do me."
"Quintessential is going to encounter almost identical conditions to this very same day last year when she won the Queensland Oaks on a Heavy 10. Just like she did a fortnight ago too for that matter in the Chairmans Handicap. I've already got $11 so that'll do me."
Locky's Selections
6 Quintessential (1st) $6.00 win / $2.70 place ($11 fixed price was available, see below)
5 Lights Of Heaven (5th)
1 Manighar (2nd) $1.80 place
Quinella 6-1 $7.80
Quinella 6-1 $7.80
QTC Cup (Group 2, 1300m, quality handicap)
Went wide here and just missed the Any 2 with my three roughies.
"Griffon ($8.50) does like to get back but hopefully he can be closer tomorrow from a good barrier. He'll be storming home and his wet track form is sound (4:2-0-2)."
"Griffon ($8.50) does like to get back but hopefully he can be closer tomorrow from a good barrier. He'll be storming home and his wet track form is sound (4:2-0-2)."
Locky's Selections
8 Border Rebel (4th)
12 Griffon (3rd) $3.70 place
13 Celtic Dancer (8th)
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Detours (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 4) is going to start around $6 and I can just see her getting the best run here from barrier 2. Well in with just 2kg over the minmum, she handles wet tracks and Darley do make a habit of picking off these Listed races for the girls to boost the value of their broodmares. 1st. $4.70 win / $1.80 place.
* Detours has since been retired to stud.
Detours (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 4) is going to start around $6 and I can just see her getting the best run here from barrier 2. Well in with just 2kg over the minmum, she handles wet tracks and Darley do make a habit of picking off these Listed races for the girls to boost the value of their broodmares. 1st. $4.70 win / $1.80 place.
* Detours has since been retired to stud.
Said Com (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) was the eye-catcher at Scone in the Luskin Star. He came from near last to finish fifth beaten two and a half lengths in a slowly run affair where Fontelina walked in front then sprinted home the final 600m in 33.72. Will get through the slow conditions OK and you should be able to get $7.50. 3rd. $1.40 place.
Index Linked (Rosehill Race 8 No. 14) looks the short way home in The Get Out Stakes much like Strawberry Boy last week. He won't be any flash price ($2.50) but he should just win. The penny seems to have finally dropped for the Chris Waller trained import and he's strung together three victories on end at 1500m. The last of those was a four length demolition job at this track and I see no reason why he can't make it four in a row tomorrow. 3rd. $1.40 place.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Hold that thought. I need to go to the john. Thank-you very much.
- Elvis Presley, Graceland, 16 August 1977
- Elvis Presley, Graceland, 16 August 1977
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