Caloundra Cup preview

The Sunshine Coast Turf Club get their big day in the spotlight with the Caloundra Cup meeting, also featuring the Glasshouse Handicap for the sprinters and the Sunshine Coast Guineas for the three-year-olds.

There are some other nice races on around the country with the Listed Winter Cup at Rosehill over 2400m and over in WA we have the Group 3 Strickland Stakes over 2000m at weight-for-age.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Damian Browne is the man to follow at the Sunshine Coast. His last 16 rides at the track (since May 19) have resulted in eight winners and four placegetters (Win 50% / Place 75%) including a winning treble on May 31 and doubles on May 19 and May 26. Has ridden 47 winners at the track in the last 12 months at a strike rate of almost one winner every three rides. No other jockey has ridden more than 30.

Sunshine Coast

*** As of 4pm the track was rated a Heavy 8. There has been 26mm of rain in the last week including 8mm in the last 24 hours. The forecast is for scattered showers tomorrow. ***

Caloundra Cup (Listed, 2400m, quality handicap)

Current market

I can't argue with the market here - I think Zennista and Shenzou Steeds will fight it out and I'm leaning to the former.

Zennista's last two runs have been good enough to win a race like this. She followed a close up fourth behind Solzhenitsyn in the unsuitably short Lord Mayors Cup before solid thirds in the Premiers and Brisbane Cups. Has looked to have Shenzou Steed's measure the last two times they met. That man Browne takes the ride.

Shenzou Steeds does have some things in his favour such as his love of the track (three from three) including victory in this race last year. He also relishes a wet track and showed last Saturday he's returned to something like peak form. 

Of the rest Rothera seemed to struggle to run out the 2400m last week and it was a gutbuster. High Kin looked good at Ipswich but gets no favours in the barrier draw. Kaypers faces a stiff class rise and is yet to win beyond a mile but is adept on affected ground. Za Magic has won here and handles the wet but the 2400m is the query.

Locky's Selections

4 Zennista
5 Shenzou Steeds
9 Kaypers

Glasshouse Handicap (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)

Current market

I tipped River Lad last week as an each-way pinch and at the furlong I thought we had the chocolates. The favourite was just too strong. See no reason not to step in here again. Not badly weighted considering the conditions and company, and should handle the going.

Best of the rest is Belltone who went too bad to be true in the Stradbroke. Can bounce back. Someday will likely start favourite and he is another one I tipped last week when he was the victim of a curious ride. Great record at the distance but has never won on slow or heavy although has been placed four times out of four.

Locky's Selections

2 River Lad
1 Belltone
13 Someday

Other bets

Disciple (Rosehill Race 9 No. 12) is in great form and it took an in-form galloper to run him down last start. Has a great record at the track and distance and has a jockey and trainer who are in good touch. $6 looks generous.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

Jockey Michael Cahill will be free to ride at the Sunshine Coast tomorrow despite copping a careless riding suspension for his ride aboard Viking Heart at Eagle Farm last Saturday.

His seven meeting ban begins on Sunday and sees him out until July 10.

Fellow hoop Tony Pattillo will also be free to partner Anagold in the Caloundra Cup despite being rubbed out for seven meetings midweek on the same charge. 

Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden has just failed to win his first European Group 1, finishing second to German horse Novellist in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. 

He'll have a sort break now before embarking on a Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe campaign and then will likely be retired.

Several of the runners from last week's Royal Ascot meeting look as though they will be Melbourne Cup aspirants this Spring Carnival.

Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon and Edinburgh Handicap winner Opinion are both penciled in for the trip. Hardwicke Stakes fifth placegetter Mount Athos will be back for another throw at the stumps and Australian owned Dandino, second in the same race, are also expected to make the journey Down Under.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller has ridden 15 winners in the last three weeks. Had two rides for two wins. Red Tracer ($4.80 win / $2.00 place) and Howmuchdoyouloveme ($2.70 win / $1.50 place).

Eagle Farm

Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Last week I wrote:

"Hard to fault Red Tracer this prep. Six starts for two wins and three seconds including two narrow defeats by Appearance at Group 1 level. Has had eight starts on slow or heavy going for six wins and a narrow second to Appearance in the Queen of the Turf"

She was simply too good. Sat wide after drawing the car park but still managed to put almost two and a half lengths on them. Hard to make excuses for those behind although Streama was probably in the wrong part of the track. She's Clean could develop into a nice mare next season.

Locky's Selections

3 Red Tracer (1st) $4.80 win / $2.00 place
1 Streama (2nd) $1.90 place
16 Peron (10th)

Exacta 3-1 $17.50
Quinella 1-3 $9.90
Any 2 3-1 $4.20

Tatt's Cup (Group 3, 2200m, quality handicap)

Hard to know what to make of this race with the $21 winner coming off some average form. Shenzou Steeds obviously appreciated the wet track and Rothera did well to hang on for third after sitting wide without cover for much of the trip. Looked like he might win halfway down the straight but just ran out of gas. Ibicenco needed a more truly run race.

Locky's Selections

2 Rothera (3rd) $1.50 place
1 Ibicenco (4th)
6 Shamardashing (SCRATCHED)

Healy Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"In what looks a pretty open race I'm happy to take $10 about River Lad on an each-way basis."

Another one that I thought was going to get us the cash halfway down the running but full credit to the winner Howmuchdoyouloveme who lumped 60kg, was harrassed in front and was a sitting shot to get run down but simply would not be denied. The biggest weight ever lumped to victory in this event and the first horse to complete the Lightning-Healy double in more than 15 years.

Locky's Selections

3 River Lad (2nd) $2.50 place

5 Gundy Son (5th)
4 Riva De Lago (SCRATCHED)

Other bets

Someday (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 14) just missed Tokamak last start and meets him 1.5kg better off tomorrow at the same track and distance. Has never won at the mile but his last run seems to indicate he's looking for it now at this stage of his career. Stable has produced a few winners at Eagle Farm so far this carnival. (Benny's Buttons, Belltone, Sizzling) $3.50. 3rd. $1.50 place.

*** Stewards questioned Michael Cahill over his ride on Someday and he told stewards he made a wrong decision to allow Diademe to cross him at the 1100m which caused him to be shuffled back to the rear of the field. ***

Border Rebel (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) was one we tipped as a roughie with a place chance last start and he was just edged into fourth in the QTC Cup at $15. He was beaten just a half a length that day by the likes of Galah, subsequent Eye Liner winner Conservatorium and Griffon. Will get a heavy track tomorrow and he's four from four in those sort of conditions. He's $4 now but get in early because as much as $4.80 was bet in early markets. Meeting abandoned after Race 3.

Nothing Like Luca (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) has been a revelation since being transferred to the O'Shea yard. He's won three from three in the last month and I'm happy to take $4 tomoorow to say he can do it again. Meeting abandoned after Race 3.

Fulgur (Randwick Race 8 No. 3) comes off back-to-back wins in Victoria and that man Waller appears to have found the key to this former international. Tried at 2000m before being dropped back to the mile where he seems to be at his best. Is backable at $4.60. Meeting abandoned after Race 3.

The Bowler (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) showed promise as an early two-year-old when a narrow second to Kuroshio in the Blue Diamond Prelude (Colts & Geldings) on debut. Spelled after failing in the Blue Diamond but has resumed with back-to-back wins. Has to contend with a wide barrier and a big weight but just looks better than these. Should get $5. 5th.

*** Rider had to stop riding and change the whip to the other hand at least four times in the straight because he was running about like a drunken sailor. Did well to stay within a length and a half of them in the end. Will win a few races if he can learn to stop being such a boofhead. ***

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Lend me your ear.
- Vincent van Gogh, Arles (France), 1888 A.D.

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Tatt's Tiara preview

As a self-confessed racing tragic this is always a sad day for me because it means no more Group 1 racing until the Memsie Stakes on August 31.

Still, we have one last big day of Stakes races to sink our teeth into so let's see if we can finish season 2012/13 on a high.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller has ridden 15 winners in the last three weeks. Rode a double at Gosford on June 6 then backed up the next day to ride the winners of the Dane Ripper, J.J.Atkins and Brisbane Cup from just four rides at Eagle Farm on Stradbroke Day. The following week he rode winners at both Hawkesbury and Wyong plus a double at Randwick midweek before bagging another treble, this time at Rosehill last Saturday. Rode a winner at both the Kembla Grange and Canterbury meetings this week. Best hope tomorrow appears to be Red Tracer (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 3).

Eagle Farm

*** Since 9am this morning the track has gone from a Dead 5 to a Heavy 8 after just 14mm of rain in the last 24 hours. 

The rain has stopped and no more is expected tonight or tomorrow and the forecast is for a fine, sunny day so the track could improve. ***

Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

No surprise that Streama has come up favourite here with the inside draw and weight-for-age conditions. A closing fourth in the Doncaster and an unlucky third in a Stradbroke is good enough form to win this. 1400m record is excellent. (5:3-1-1)

Her stablemate Skyerush has been the subject of good early support ($11 into $8.50) and has the advantage of coming into this race fresh. Has never won at 1400m from eight attempts but has placed six times including a second in this race last year. Is in good form having won the Liverpool City Cup, Doncaster Prelude and Emancipation Stakes this time in.

Hard to fault Red Tracer this prep. Six starts for two wins and three seconds including two narrow defeats by Appearance at Group 1 level. Only failure was in the Doncaster and let's face it she just doesn't see out a mile. Has had eight starts on slow or heavy going for six wins, a narrow second to Appearance in the Queen of the Turf and the aforementioned Doncaster failure at 1600m.

Her stablemate She's Clean is a mare in form and it can pay to follow them because they do tend to string wins together sometimes - think Arinosa, Appearance, Skyerush etc. She will handle all conditions too but the last time they stepped her up to 1400m she was beaten three and a half lengths in a fillies and mares Benchmark 80. Worrying.

Peron is a talented filly that I have been following and she's got us the chocolates three times out of three in this blog. Is poorly in at the weight-for-age scale but she is the one on an upward spiral and I feel she will measure up to Group standard so she's in this up to her ears.

Of the rest Spirit Song's run in the Stradbroke was good and she might have finished closer if not for severe interference in the closing stages. Doubtfilly would revel in a really heavy track and was OK at Ipswich last Saturday. Risk Aversion and Yosei will be charging late but I prefer to back horses that make their own luck.

Locky's Selections

3 Red Tracer
1 Streama
16 Peron

Tatt's Cup (Group 3, 2200m, quality handicap)

Current market

Five of the thirteen runners will start this race under double figures so it is a pretty even contest on paper.

The strongest form line for this race appears to be the Brisbane Cup and the best runs from that race were Rothera and Shamardashing. Neither will be hindered by a wet track. Fibrillation and Shenzou Steeds weren't so good in that race and Verdant was so-so.

Ibicenco the main danger to these two but he needs it no worse than dead. Less than two lengths behind Solzhenitsyn first-up in an unsuitably short race then stayed at the mile and wasn't bad behind Tokamak in the Strawberry Road Handicap. A Sandown Cup winner in the Spring who should also have nearly won The Lexus on VRC Derby Day but for interference in the straight. 

I can't have Zabeelionaire because in three of his last four starts he has not beaten a single runner home.

Locky's Selections

2 Rothera
1 Ibicenco
6 Shamardashing

Healy Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, quality handicap)

Current market

In what looks a pretty open race I'm happy to take $10 about River Lad on an each-way basis. Has had seven goes at the Eagle Farm 1200m for three wins and two minor placings. Has won five times at the track and five times at the distance. Wasn't far away when placed behind Famous Seamus in the Hinkler Handicap and then the Prime Ministers Cup. Last start was better than it looked because he was dropping from the 1300m to the 1000m and he got run off his feet early and was back worse than midfield. Was charging home at the end though and back to his pet track and distance this week. Won this race last year.

Happy to risk the favourite Howmuchdoyouloveme because he'll have to set a weight carrying record to win. The highest weight lumped to victory was the 59.5kg impost shouldered by Tiny's Finito way back in 1991. Since that day almost a quarter of a century ago only four winners have carried more than 55.5kg, and just one horse (Blazing Reality, 1997) has completed the Lightning Handicap-Healy Stakes double.

Riva De Lago has some claims because the Waller stable has won just about everything in the last month except for the French Open and jockey Hugh Bowman is flying. His last five starts have yielded two wins and three seconds in races like The Liverpool City Cup, Ajax Stakes and the Luskin Star behind some handy, in-form types in the like of Skyerush, Havana Rey and Fontelina. The concern is that his best form has been at 1300m and beyond whereas his 1200m record is average (6:1-0-3). He's also been up longer than Stonehenge.

Of the rest Griffon will have his admirers but he doesn't win often and always seems to run into bad luck due to his racing pattern. Barrier 12 is no help in that regard. Skytrain tends to mix his form but will grow a leg if the track is a bog come Race 8. Gundy Son has a sense of timing about him after his flashing run last start and he does like this track and distance.

Locky's Selections

3 River Lad

5 Gundy Son
4 Riva De Lago

Other bets

Someday (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 14) just missed Tokamak last start and meets him 1.5kg better off tomorrow at the same track and distance. Has never won at the mile but his last run seems to indicate he's looking for it now at this stage of his career. Stable has produced a few winners at Eagle Farm so far this carnival. (Benny's Buttons, Belltone, Sizzling) $3.50.

Border Rebel (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) was one we tipped as a roughie with a place chance last start and he was just edged into fourth in the QTC Cup at $15. He was beaten just a half a length that day by the likes of Galah, subsequent Eye Liner winner Conservatorium and Griffon. Will get a heavy track tomorrow and he's four from four in those sort of conditions. He's $4 now but get in early because as much as $4.80 was bet in early markets.

Nothing Like Luca (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) has been a revelation since being transferred to the O'Shea yard. He's won three from three in the last month and I'm happy to take $4 tomoorow to say he can do it again.

Fulgur (Randwick Race 8 No. 3) comes off back-to-back wins in Victoria and that man Waller appears to have found the key to this former international. Tried at 2000m before being dropped back to the mile where he seems to be at his best. Is backable at $4.60.

The Bowler (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) showed promise as an early two-year-old when a narrow second to Kuroshio in the Blue Diamond Prelude (Colts & Geldings) on debut. Spelled after failing in the Blue Diamond but has resumed with back-to-back wins. Has to contend with a wide barrier and a big weight but just looks better than these. Should get $5.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

The Royal Ascot carnival has been the big news this week. Just briefly:

Queen Elizabeth created history by becoming the first British reigning monarch to win the Gold Cup when her three-year-old filly Estimate held on in a driving finish.

It was an emotional day because just 40 minutes earlier Lady Cecil, the widow of Sir Henry Cecil, sent out Riposte to win the Ribblesdale Stakes just a week after her late husband lost his long battle with cancer. 

The Aussies haven't fared so well with the Danny O'Brien trained Shamexpress a distant ninth in the Kings Stand Stakes, while Animal Kingdom (part owned by Arrowfield Stud) flopped in the Queen Anne Stakes as a heavily backed favourite.

In suspension news Glen Boss has been rubbed out for 25 meetings after pleading guilty to careless riding at  Mornington last week.

Boss admitted responsibility for a fall which saw fellow jockey Kane Bradley hospitalized with facial injuries, but Bossy was due to have some time off anyway after having a minor leg operation two days ago.

Meantime Glyn Schofield has copped a six meeting ban for careless riding on The Graet Snowman in Race 7 at Rosehill last Saturday.

Danny Nikolic's lawyers claim racing authorities do not have the power to charge the jockey with misconduct because he is disqualified and therefore is no longer a licensed person.

Nikolic has been charged with intimidating racing Victoria steward Wade Hadley during his unsuccessful appeal against a two-year disqulaification.

On a positive note Nathan Berry will join his brother Tommy in the Sha Tin jockey's room on Sunday after answering an SOS from the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Injuries and suspensions to a number of riders forced the move.

Less than a fortnight after claiming the Stradbroke with Linton trainer John Sadler could be facing the loss of talented gelding Ossenhagen.

The owners have received an offer from Hong Kong to purchase the three-year-old after successive victories by big margins in the last month.

And a lucky escape for Kiwi hoop Rogan Norvall after a six-metre deep sinkhole (below) opened up underneath him and his mount Buckles at Ellerslie last weekend.

Horse and rider came to grief but luckily both suffered only superficial injuries.

LOOKING BACK

Eagle Farm

Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).

Next best are probably Muirfield, High Kin and Topping who all have some wet track form."

Locky's Selections

11 Za Magic (3rd) $3.00 place
14 Planetarium (9th)

1 Viola Ici (5th)

Eye Liner Stakes (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Conservatorium comes off good Adelaide and Brisbane form and is also drawn to get a good run in transit but will have to concede six kilos to the three-year-old. He can be right in it when the whips are cracking."

Locky's Selections

15 Dances On Stars (13th)
1 Conservatorium (1st) $7.10 win / $2.80 place
8 Celtic Dancer (11th)

Gai Watehouse Classic (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Followers of this blog will know that I am a big fan of Peron and have been following her for some time. The wet track is the only knock becauase her only failure to date was a third on a slow track at Doomben in February but that was tempo related. The leader that day walked in front then sprinted home while this filly was back near last after a slow start. Plus it was her first go at a mile. Back to 1350m from a cosy draw and in on the minimum she does look the one."

Locky's Selections

11 Peron (1st) $4.00 win / $1.90 place
3 Classics (4th)
1 Whateverwhenever (5th)

Other bets

Sessions (Rosehill Race 6 No. 9) won't be any flash price but should get the chocolates. He's put in a couple of nice trials in the lead-up to this and has won two from two fresh. Hopefully we can get $2.50. 1st. $2.40 win / $1.40 place.

Mr O'Ceiren (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) did enough first-up to suggest he can be right in this and although $4 was available early they've come for him and he's now into $3.30. Second-up form is sound (4:1-1-1) and boasts three wins and a second from four goes at the journey. 1st. $3.50 win / $1.70 place.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

You want me to paint it where?
- Michelangelo, Sistine Chapel, 1508 A.D.

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Ipswich Cup preview

The Winter Carnival is winding down now and the Ipswich Cup meeting is not one that has been kind to me over the years so keep that in mind when perusing my thoughts and tips this week.

It will be a fascinating meeting nonetheless with races like the Ipswich Cup, Eye Liner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic on the card.

Unfortunately it's been a wet week in Queensland with persistent rain from last Sunday through Wednesday but the last few days have been fine and the track should bounce back but it will still be rain affected.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

With all the east coast tracks rain affected to some degree I'm looking to WA where Daniel Staeck has been in scintillating form of late. He's ridden a winner at the last five consecutive Belmont meetings, including two doubles.

But it's when he combines with Fred Kersley that you really need to look out. Since May 25 the duo has combined seven times for five wins and a second at Belmont plus a third at Northam midweek. They haven't missed a drum. Ridiculous stats. 

They're back at Belmont tomorrow where they combine on Gunnery Sergeant (Race 2 No.3), Secret Ruler (Race 4 No. 4) & Confianza (Race 6 No.10).

Ipswich

*** As of 4.45pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The track has had 46mm of rain in the last week including 25mm on Wednesday alone. There has however been warm, sunny conditions today and this is expected to continue tomorrow.

I am working on the assumption the track will be around a Slow 6 because this track does recover quickly. ***

Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150, quality handicap)

* Zabeelionaire, Bang On and Warrior Within are early scratchings

Current market

One look at the track map above will show that it is a very short run to the first corner and from there on you are practically on one big long sweeping bend until you re-enter the straight. Therefore drawing a good barrier and having the ability to race on the speed is crucial. I think that horse could be Planetarium. Gerald Ryan does tend to target some of his horses at this program (he won back-to-back Eye Liner Stakes with Adnocon in 2010/11) and Brenton Avdulla is in winning form this Winter Carnival having ridden this bloke to his previous win on Oaks Day before combining with Howmuchdoyouloveme to claim the Lightning Handicap last weekend on Super Saturday.

Viola Ici has been installed a $3.50 favourite but I can't see myself tumbling into that from barrier 19 with 60kg. He's never won in this country and has had one good run in the last nine months. He will however relish the wet track and at his best he has lengths on these.

Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).

Next best are probably Muirfield, High Kin and Topping who all have some wet track form.

Locky's Selections

11 Za Magic
14 Planetarium

1 Viola Ici

Eye Liner Stakes (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)

* Gundy Son, Benny's Buttons, New Day Rising and Mr Armstrong are early scratchings

Current market

Dances On Stars should get a saloon passage here from barrier one and, with the exception of last weekend's Stradbroke, the three-year-olds just seem to have the edge on their older rivals at Group 1 level these last four months. Trained by that man Ryan too.

Conservatorium comes off good Adelaide and Brisbane form and is also drawn to get a good run in transit but will have to concede six kilos to the three-year-old. He can be right in it when the whips are cracking but I can't have him on top with that impost.

There's been a few bets at long odds in early markets for Celtic Dancer, possibly because he has three wins from four starts in heavy going. He's won four times at the 1350m and was placed on his only visit to this track.

Jetset Lad will appreciate the big drop in class after contesting races like the BTC Cup and Doomben 10,000 in recent weeks. Mahisara was well backed when a last start failure so it may pay to forgive that run as somebody obviously thought he was ready to fire. Morning Captain has been trapped wide after drawing poorly at his last three starts but from gate 12 tomorrow he may well do it tough again.

Locky's Selections

15 Dances On Stars
1 Conservatorium
8 Celtic Dancer

Gai Waterhouse Classic (Listed, 1350m, qualirt handicap)

* Cradle Me is an early scratching

Current market

Followers of this blog will know that I am a big fan of Peron and have been following her for some time. The wet track is the only knock becauase her only failure to date was a third on a slow track at Doomben in February but that was tempo related. The leader that day walked in front then sprinted home while this filly was back near last after a slow start. Plus it was her first go at a mile. Back to 1350m from a cosy draw and in on the minimum she does look the one but get in ASAP because she's been well found in early markets.

Bound To Blush has been within a length or two of Detours in two races this prep and just missed in the Glenlogan Park Stakes. This is a similar level but the wet track is a query. Classics was sound first-up and has won two from four second-up and as I've said before Darley do place their fillies and mares well in these Stakes races. Has won twice on affected ground.

Love For Ransom is a one-time Thousand Guineas favourite and her first-up run was better than it looks on paper. She hardly saw daylight in the straight and yet still managed to come from last and run past five runners despite the fact that Michael Cahill had her in a sleeper hold.

Whateverwhenever won a 1400m Group 3 race in Melbourne on Caulfield Cup Day last October. She's probably going to get out to silly odds tomorrow ($51) and can be forgiven her last two runs because her first-up and second-up form is poor (8:1-1-1). Three runs or further into a prep her record is much better (21:7-3-4). Unbeaten in two starts at Ipswich. Sharnee Rose hasn't been far away in much stronger races but has to contend with a horror draw.

Locky's Selections

11 Peron
3 Classics
1 Whateverwhenever

Other bets

Sessions (Rosehill Race 6 No. 9) won't be any flash price but should get the chocolates. He's put in a couple of nice trials in the lead-up to this and has won two from two fresh. Hopefully we can get $2.50.

Mr O'Ceiren (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) did enough first-up to suggest he can be right in this and although $4 was available early they've come for him and he's now into $3.30. Second-up form is sound (4:1-1-1) and boasts three wins and a second from four goes at the journey.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

A stallion is yet to be confirmed for Black Caviar but connections say they have narrowed it down to a short list.

The mighty mare's owners won't comment as yet on who has made the list but will say they have whittled it down to half a dozen.

Brenton Avdulla, Chad Schofield & Dwayne Dunn have all earned the wrath of the stewards in the last seven days.

Dunn copped a 14 meeting ban on Monday at Mornington for careless riding but plans to appeal the severity of the sentence.

Avdulla earned a nine meeting holiday for careless riding during Howmuchdoyouloveme's win in the Lightning Handicap at Eagle Farm last Saturday whilst Chadfield will miss 10 meetings after he pleaded guilty to the same charge at Flemington last weekend.

Lastly on a sad note veteran English trainer Sir Henry Cecil has passed away aged 80 following a long battle with cancer.

A private funeral for family members only will be held at St Agnes Church at Newmarket on June 24.

The Queen's Vase, a race at Royal Ascot that Sir Henry won eight times, has been re-named in his honour.

LOOKING BACK

Eagle Farm

Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, open handicap)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Better Than Ready/Sizzling. Unplaced.

To paraphrase what I wrote last week:

"I might sit on my hands here because I already have Buffering running at $13 (each way)"

"Buffering will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too."

* Your Song has been retired and will stand at Widden Stud for a service fee of $22,000

Locky's Selections

8 Your Song (14th)

1 Buffering (2nd) $4.00 place (fixed price, see above)

17 Better Than Ready (18th)

Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Hawkspur. 1st. $4.00 win / $1.80 place

It was like I had a crystal ball for this one:

"I see no reason not to follow Hawkspur here. He's won the two traditional lead-up races in the Rough Habit Plate and the Grand Prix Stakes and he's won them dominantly. He handles wet and dry tracks. Last preparation he took three runs to get fit then strung three wins on end. He's on a similar path this time in. Savaged the line at his last start and was going as well as anything at the end and gives every indication the 2400m will be no problem. Some will say he was flattered in his last two wins by cosy runs but in all likelihood he'll get the same again tomorrow. If the emergencies come out he'll start from barrier three whereas all his main opposition will start from out wide. A clear top selection for mine and at backable odds."

Locky's Selections

1 Hawkspur (1st) $4.00 win / $1.80 place
18 Gondokoro (5th)
2 Honorius (3rd) $2.40 place

Any 2 1-2 $5.20

J.J.Atkins Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)

Romantic Touch got a mid-race breather and was able to kick in the straight. Zoustar was unlucky and could have made it interesting if he got out sooner. Paximadia didn't help his chances by overracing. Vilanova sat wide without cover but was still OK. Global Dream ran on from well back and could win a nice fillies race in Sydney in the Spring. Hooked was disappointing.

Locky's Selections

3 Vilanova (4th)
1 Zoustar (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Hooked (8th)

Brisbane Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)

Got the quinella here and just missed the trifecta and my radar wasn't far off in my summary too:

"If it rains during the day Quintessential will be the big market mover so watch the skies. She's shown a real liking for wet tracks in Queensland during the Winter Carnival with the Oaks, Chairmans Handicap and Eagle Farm Cup all on her CV. Jockey Damian Browne is flying too .

Moriarty is the one I had on top earlier in the week but the threat of rain and the terrible barrier draw have really dented my confidence. But he can be right in the finish if the track stays dry and he gets a good run in transit. Zennista wasn't far away in the Premiers Cup and meets Precedence two kilos better off."

Locky's Selections

4 Quintessential (2nd) $2.50 place

3 Moriarty (1st) $7.00 win / $2.70 place
6 Lightinthenite (4th)

Quinella 4-3 $15.70
Any 2 3-4 $5.10

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Transporter (Eagle Farm Race 2 No. 3) will appreciate the drop back in grade after he backed up a third to Lights Of Heaven and Foreteller in the Hollindale Stakes with a close second to Solzhenitsyn in the Lord Mayors Cup. Prior to that had back-to-back victories here in Brisbane over this journey including one six length demolition. Four wins and three seconds from eight attempts at the mile, and four wins and three placings from nine starts at Eagle Farm. Should be able to get $3.50. 3rd. $1.70 place.

Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance. DID NOT START.

Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30. 3rd. $1.40 place.

The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run  down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy. 12th.

Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available. 11th.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I call dibs on the window seat Buddy.
- Richie Valens, Mason City Airport (Iowa), 2 February 1959

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Stradbroke preview

Super Saturday. 

That says it all.

Three Group 1 races. Two Group 2's. Every single race a Stakes race. A tick under $3.5 million up for grabs.

Time honoured races like the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and Brisbane Cup. The two-year-olds fight it out in the J.J.Atkins. The fillies and mares lock horns in the Dane Ripper. What a day.

Some good support meetings are on offer too with the feature at Royal Randwick the Listed June Stakes for the speedsters, whilst the more dour types will slug it out over the 3200m in the Stayers Cup. At Flemington the three-year-olds will contest the $120,000 Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes over 1200m.

Let's find some winners.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Kelso Wood has trained a winner at every meeting during the Winter Carnival so far with the exception of Doomben 10,000 Day, with Benny's Buttons (BRC Dash), Belltone (BRC Sprint) & Sizzling (Qld Guineas) all successful. In all he had eight winners and four placegetters from just 21 runners (Win 38% / Place 57%) in the month of May. He only has about a dozen horses in work so to qualify three runners for the Stradbroke (Belltone, Spirit Song, Sizzling) is phenomenal  Also has My Boy Brando (Race 1 No.1) and Someday (Race 2 No. 12).

Eagle Farm

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The track has had no rain or irrigation in the last week. The forecast is for scattered, isolated showers near the coast in the afternoon.

I am working on the assumption the track will be no worse than dead. I will however include pointers to a few mudlarks in case the forecast showers are heavier than expected. ***

Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, open handicap)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Better Than Ready/Sizzling.

Only four favourites have won in the last 18 years. In the last 16 years Black Piranha and Show A Heart are the only winners to have carried more than 54kg. 11 of the last 14 winners paid $13 or less. Four of the last 10 winners were three-year-olds.

WET TRACKERS : Streama, Your Song, Hot Snitzel, Better Than Ready, Sizzling

I might sit on my hands here because I already have Your Song running at $6 and Buffering running at $13 (each way) and I think of the top fancies they fared best at the barrier draw. The reaction in the marketplace seems to confirm that. 

I'm forgiving Your Song his second-up failure because I think the first-up run may just have knocked the wind out of his sails. The run before that was awesome and he handles both wet and dry tracks. Trainer and jockey have had plenty of recent success. Just appears that he will get the best run in transit with good gate speed and barrier 8 once the emergencies come out.

Buffering set a blistering tempo in the Doomben 10,000 and had every right to throw up the white flag half way down the straight but he had the cheek to fight on and hang on for third beaten just over two lengths. When you consider some recent Stradbrokes have had a bottom weight of around 48kg I don't think he is that badly in with 58kg at just 6kg over the minimum. He will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race.

Sizzling will come into barrier 14 if the emergencies come out and that is a better draw for him than say barrier 2. You can't deny he loves Eagle Farm with five wins and an unlucky second from six starts and if the rain comes he will grow a leg. However he did only beat D-graders last week. 

Epaulette seems to race best when his runs are spaced. He ran a cracking second to Black Caviar first-up off a break before he disappointed a fortnight later when well tried in the All Aged Stakes. He was then given a month off and bounced back in the 10,000 although he did get a charmed run. Just worried about the 14 day back up and the horror draw.

Better Than Ready has been set for this (but so have many others) and is well weighted but his last two runs have only been fair. Having said that lightly weighted three-year-olds have a good record in this race and he will appreciate the drop from weight-for-age to handicap conditions.

Others with chances are Solzhenitsyn who is a genuine Group 1 horse who won't know himself with just the 56kg. Fontelina is drawn to get the run of the race and got us the chocolates last time out. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too.

Locky's Selections

8 Your Song

1 Buffering

17 Better Than Ready

Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Hawkspur.

No winner has paid more than $11 since 1987. Nine of the last ten winners have paid $6 or less. Only two favourites have won in the last eight years. Four of the last seven winners had won at their last start.

WET TRACKERS : Hawkspur, Survived, Ali Vital, Zagami, Ambitious Champion

I see no reason not to follow Hawkspur here. He's won the two traditional lead-up races in the Rough Habit Plate and the Grand Prix Stakes and he's won them dominantly. He handles wet and dry tracks. Last preparation he took three runs to get fit then strung three wins on end. He's on a similar path this time in. Savaged the line at his last start and was going as well as anything at the end and gives every indication the 2400m will be no problem. Some will say he was flattered in his last two wins by cosy runs but in all likelihood he'll get the same again tomorrow. If the emergencies come out he'll start from barrier three whereas all his main opposition will start from out wide. A clear top selection for mine and at backable odds.

Honorius the next best because he'll also likely get a saloon passage in transit from barrier two. But only if the rain stays away. Hopeless in the wet. I liked the way he ground to the line behind Hawkspur last start and he is another who looks like he'll eat up the 2400m.

Gondokoro (14), Survived (17), Rhythm To Spare (19), Ambitious Champion (20) & Electric Fusion (22) have all drawn horrible barriers so I've steered away from them although all have genuine claims.

Locky's Selections

1 Hawkspur
18 Gondokoro
2 Honorius

J.J.Atkins Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

WET TRACKERS : Zoustar, Sir Moments, Dowdstown Charlie

Should be good speed here unlike the Sires Produce with Romantic Touch sure to lead them a merry dance. He was super impressive in winning at Canterbury last start by a big margin in slick time but can he back it up on the bigger track at Eagle Farm? I'm not taking $2.80 to find out.

The Waller duo Zoustar and Vilanova were the best runs in the Sires. I'm going to opt for Vilanova simply because of the likely price difference and the fact I think he looks more like a miler whereas Zoustar gives the impression he is a 1200m-1400m horse.

There were other runs in the Sires that were sound because it was a muddling affair. The speed dropped out of it mid-race and Vilanova and Hooked got pushed wide and forward earlier than they wanted, while Zoustar got the cushy run on the rails. Which he could get again tomorrow from barrier five - who knows? Paximadia was another who had excuses because that dawdling tempo saw her shuffled back in the field before storming home at the finish. Global Dream was another who made good ground late.

Sir Moments comes out of what I suppose you'd call the B-grade form but his win last weekend when he was last into the straight before launching a sustained run down the centre of the track was full of merit.

Locky's Selections

3 Vilanova
1 Zoustar
5 Hooked

Brisbane Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)

Current market

WET TRACKERS : Volia Ici, Quintessential, Fiumicino, Lightinthenite, Rothera, Shenzou Steeds, Zennista, Shamardashing

Pretty open race here which is indicated by the fact they'll probably end up betting $5 the field. If it rains during the day Quintessential will be the big market mover so watch the skies. She's shown a real liking for wet tracks in Queensland during the Winter Carnival with the Oaks, Chairmans Handicap and Eagle Farm Cup all on her CV. Jockey Damian Browne is flying too with a double at the Sunshine Coast on May 26, a treble at the same venue five days later followed by a winning double at Eagle Farm last weekend. In fact he's only missed a drum twice in his last 13 rides with seven winners and four placings.

Moriarty is the one I had on top earlier in the week but the threat of rain and the terrible barrier draw have really dented my confidence. But he can be right in the finish if the track stays dry and he gets a good run in transit.

Precedence looked great in wnining the Premiers Cup and if it was any other horse you'd think it was a slashing Brisbane Cup trial but let's face it he doesn't win very often. That was just his second win since the 2010 Moonee Valley Cup.

As for the others Less Is More and Zennista weren't far away in the Premiers Cup and meet Precedence two kilos better off while Viola Ici and Fiumicino have genuine claims if the rain comes. Interesting to note too that big race jockey Glen Boss has jumped off heavily backed last start failure Midsummer Sun to ride Lightinthenite who will appreciate a big drop in class after contesting races like the Doncaster, Hollindale Stakes and Doomben Cup. 

Locky's Selections

4 Quintessential

3 Moriarty
6 Lightinthenite

Other bets

Transporter (Eagle Farm Race 2 No. 3) will appreciate the drop back in grade after he backed up a third to Lights Of Heaven and Foreteller in the Hollindale Stakes with a close second to Solzhenitsyn in the Lord Mayors Cup. Prior to that had back-to-back victories here in Brisbane over this journey including one six length demolition. Four wins and three seconds from eight attempts at the mile, and four wins and three placings from nine starts at Eagle Farm. Should be able to get $3.50.

Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance.

Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30.

The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run  down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy.

Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

Rhys McLeod and Damian Browne have both been handed eight meeting suspensions for separate incidents at Eagle Farm last weekend.

McLeod was outed for causing interference aboard Gondokoro in the Oaks whilst Browne got his stint on the sidelines for careless riding during his Eagle Farm Cup win on Quintessential.

Both suspensions start after tomorrow leaving McLeod free to ride Gondokoro in the Derby and Browne free to partner Buffering in the Stradbroke.

Hoop James McDonald's fortunes have been better. The Kiwi young gun has claimed his first winner in the UK at just his second ride with victory aboard Cable Bay at Leicester.

The 21-year-old is spending a few months with the Charlie Hill stable as a learning experience but plans to return to his Sydney base in July.

Meanwhile boom apprentice Chad Schofield has outridden his city claim. 

The 19-year-old bagged his 80th city winner on Wednesday when he saluted aboard Brand New Choice at Moonee Valley.

More Joyous has run her last race. She's been retired to stud and has a date with English champion Frankel later this year.

The mighty mare won 21 of her 33 career starts including eight Group 1's and more than $4.5 million in stakes.

And Zabeel is closing in on the record of 45 individual Group 1 winners held by his father Sir Tristram.

Gondokoro's Queensland Oaks win gave Zabeel his 43rd individual Group 1 winner, just two behind his famous sire, and although he is rising 27 he will still serve a select band of broodmares this Spring.

LOOKING BACK

I worked on the assumption the track would be fairly heavy and it got us the coin early in the day but the forecast shower never came and the track was upgraded after Race 5. Which funnily enough is when my tips started to go south.

Who's hot?

I tipped Brad Rawiller and Damian Browne as the jockeys to follow. Browne had three rides for two winners and Rawiller had one ride for one second, funnily enough behind Browne when they ran the quinella in the Eagle Farm Cup aboard Quintessential and Manighar.

Eagle Farm

Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, three-year-old fillies set weights)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Gondokoro. 1st. $5.10 win / $2.10 place

I did manage to find the trifecta amongst the top fancies I discussed, I just didn't put two of them in my top three!

"Vaquera however has drawn well, races on the speed and has won on slow. Gondokoro was the one I liked on top early in the week but the wet track and the fact she'll probably get well back makes it hard to step into $4. Miss Zenella (5 starts) and Porcellanus (2 starts) look like good horses in the making but I don't think they are seasoned enough for what could be a slogging mile and a half through poor conditions."

Locky's Selections

3 Soapy Star (15th)

1 Dear Demi (7th)

8 Vaquera (3rd) $3.50 place

Queensland Guineas (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

I also wasn't far away with my tips in this race either.

"Won't worry Sizzling though because he swims through it and will really appreciate getting back to his home track at Eagle Farm. Blinkers go on too."

Locky's Selections

6 Platinum Kingdom (11th)
1 Sizzling (1st) $4.40 win / $1.90 place
19 Lilliburlero (7th)

Eagle Farm Cup (Group 2, 2200m, w-f-a)

I picked this one like a dirty nose.

"Quintessential is going to encounter almost identical conditions to this very same day last year when she won the Queensland Oaks on a Heavy 10. Just like she did a fortnight ago too for that matter in the Chairmans Handicap. I've already got $11 so that'll do me."

Locky's Selections

6 Quintessential (1st) $6.00 win / $2.70 place ($11 fixed price was available, see below)

5 Lights Of Heaven (5th)

1 Manighar (2nd) $1.80 place

Quinella 6-1 $7.80

QTC Cup (Group 2, 1300m, quality handicap)

Went wide here and just missed the Any 2 with my three roughies.

"Griffon ($8.50) does like to get back but hopefully he can be closer tomorrow from a good barrier. He'll be storming home and his wet track form is sound (4:2-0-2)."

Locky's Selections

8 Border Rebel (4th)

12 Griffon (3rd) $3.70 place

13 Celtic Dancer (8th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Detours (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 4) is going to start around $6 and I can just see her getting the best run here from barrier 2. Well in with just 2kg over the minmum, she handles wet tracks and Darley do make a habit of picking off these Listed races for the girls to boost the value of their broodmares. 1st. $4.70 win / $1.80 place.

* Detours has since been retired to stud.

Said Com (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) was the eye-catcher at Scone in the Luskin Star. He came from near last to finish fifth beaten two and a half lengths in a slowly run affair where Fontelina walked in front then sprinted home the final 600m in 33.72. Will get through the slow conditions OK and you should be able to get $7.50. 3rd. $1.40 place.

Index Linked (Rosehill Race 8 No. 14) looks the short way home in The Get Out Stakes much like Strawberry Boy last week. He won't be any flash price ($2.50) but he should just win. The penny seems to have finally dropped for the Chris Waller trained import and he's strung together three victories on end at 1500m. The last of those was a four length demolition job at this track and I see no reason why he can't make it four in a row tomorrow. 3rd. $1.40 place.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Hold that thought. I need to go to the john. Thank-you very much.
- Elvis Presley, Graceland, 16 August 1977

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