Geelong Cup - Manikato Stakes wash up / Cox Plate preview

It's been a busy week with meetings at Geelong and Moonee Valley to digest before we even start to think about a crackerjack Cox Plate so without further ado let the starter mount his rostrum and give the starting signal so that the gates can fly open on... 

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

Gatewood won but as so often happens with small fields this turned into a tactical affair and was run at a farcical pace. The overall time was almost seven seconds slower than the time recorded earlier in the day over the same trip in the Benchmark 78. They walked and then sprinted home their last 600m in 32.09.

It won't be an accurate guide to the Melbourne Cup because the winner is highly unlikely to make the final field despite a 1kg penalty. The Mackinnon on Derby Day has been mooted as a potential one-off alternative but with sectionals like that they could always freshen him up for the Patinack or come back in the Autumn and have a crack at the Oakleigh Plate. ;)

Locky's tip - Gatewood win. 1st. Well judged ride by Glen Boss got him home in a sit and sprint affair.

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Brisbane Winter Carnival form held up here with Sea Siren edging out an unlucky Mental. Daylight third. Follow the Snowden horse. He is above average and there is a nice race in him somewhere.

Locky's tip - Buffering win. Forgive. Savaged in front by Satin Shoes. At least we'll get a price in the Patinack now.

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, w-f-a)

A lot of tipsters sit on the fence but I will put it on the line and say that my top five in order is 9-4-1-8-5.

Ocean Park ticks all the boxes with three consecutive wins at G1 level in w-f-a company and he is a lightly raced horse on the upward spiral. Green Moon scares the hell out of me. Shoot Out is the roughie for your exotics. Ethiopia and Rekindled Interest the knockouts. I've left out some quality horses but you can't tip them all.

Three year olds have won just six times in the last 40 years. Eventualy they'll win one and I'll end up with egg on my face but until then I'll be right six times out of seven and gambling is all about playing the percentages.

More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails are serious risks at a strong 2040m.

Southern Speed, Glass Harmonium and Linton are good horses but they aren't travelling well enough and Cox Plates aren't won by horses out of form.

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Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)

Mida's Touch seems to be working into form with a solid 4th last time out behind Cox Plate hopefuls Ocean Park and Sincero and Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop. He showed he has a touch of class when he first started in this country a year ago with placings in both the Makybe Diva and Underwood Stakes. The stable is flying too with Macedon Lodge claiming four winners across two states back on Epsom Handicap/Turnbull Stakes Day. Toss form jockey Hugh Bowman into the mix and you have a recipe for success.

Vase (G2, 2040m, set weights)

The Kiwi colt It's a Dundeel will go around at skinny odds and deservedly so. He's won five from five including a last start win in the Spring Champion Stakes over Proisir who will be about a $9 chance in the Cox Plate later in the day. He should just win and confirm his status as the short priced favourite for next Saturday's VRC Derby.

Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, w-f-a)

For the first time this event will be run at weight for age which has Rangirangdoo pitched in at the weights. Solzhenitsyn isn't as well weighted but has carried large imposts before and won at w-f-a level during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Silent Achiever has form around Ocean Park and Ambidexter's run in the Epsom was super. A tough betting race. I'll tip Solzhenitsyn but simply because I am a parochial Queenslander. (Yes I know Solzhenitsyn is a Kiwi but I have adopted him much the same way I adopted Rough Habit).

* Last post I mentioned interstate trainers with one or two runners in Melbourne. Keep an eye out for Chris Waller, Gerald Ryan, Rob Heathcote, Paul Perry and Guy Walter.

Locky's Lock of the Week

Moonee Valley R1 No. 8 Shamus Award  

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I'll have the veal

- Buddha, India, 483 B.C.

Caulfield Cup washup / Geelong Cup - Manikato Stakes preview

What did we learn on the weekend? Follow interstate trainers who take small teams of horses to Melbourne for the Spring because they don't make these trips on a whim.

On Saturday we saw Liam Birchlely (Whateverwhenever), Con Karakatsanis (Howmuchdoyouloveme), John O'Shea (Lightinthenite), Guy Walter (Streama) & Gerald Ryan (Mrs Onassis) all victorious. For the first three the winner was the only runner they saddled up all day, the last two had only one other runner on the program, in the case of Guy Walter both were in the same race.

As for the Melbourne Cup is the picture any clearer or has the weekend's racing just muddied the waters even more? What of the support races? Who are the horses to follow going forward as we move onwards towards Cox Plate Day and the Flemington Carnival? It's time to assess...

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, handicap)

I don't know what to make of this race. The first three horses out of the straight were three of the last four horses over the line, which would normally indicate they went too hard and set it up for the swoopers. Yet the overall time wasn't fast. All honours with the winner Dunaden though. Topweight of 58kg, extreme outside barrier of 22, hooked back to the tail, gave them a start and gave them a beating. Craig Williams at his best. I forecast in a previous post that the locals would find it tough against the internationals and I've seen nothing on the weekend to alter that opinion. 1st, 4th and 5th were overseas raiders and I can't see Alcopop and Lights of Heaven pushing on to The Cup.

There may be a nice race for Folding Gear in the coming weeks if they set their sights a bit lower. He worked to the line well after getting into a bumping duel down the straight just as he was starting to make his run.

Locky's tip - My Quest for Peace e/w. Solid 4th. Sat behind the speed and stuck on well when all the other pacemakers folded faster than Superman on laundry day.

* Dunaden has earned a 1kg penalty for his win taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 59kg. That's 4.5kg more than he carried to victory last year. The highest weight carried to victory since the change to the metric system 40 years ago is the 58.5kg lumped by Think Big in his second Cup victory in 1975.

Caulfiled Sprint (G2, 1100m, handicap)

Howmuchdoyouloveme continues to improve each time they raise the bar. First up for 10 weeks he stepped up from a Listed race at Grafton to a Group 2 on Caulfield Cup Day and won with a leg in the air. Headed for the Salinger on Derby Day which is shaping as a cracking race.

Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, fillies and mares set weights plus penalties)

I tipped that the topweights were well in at the SW+P, I just tipped the wrong one. Numbers 2,3 and 4 filled the placings. The cream tends to rise to the top in these SW+P races for fillies and mares so that's something to keep in mind for the coming weeks.

Locky's tip - Mosheen win. Disappointing 6th. Appeared to have every possible hope.

Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

A great ride here by Glen Boss saw Hvasstan get home in a rough and ready finish. The stewards have given Nick Hall a holiday after a ride reminiscent of Ray Cochrane on Taufan's Melody on this day 14 years ago. It was an emotional win for the Gelagotis boys after losing their father earlier in the week.

Many of these will push on to the Derby but it was a bunched finish which suggests they are a fairly even lot. I think the classic winner will come from another race, either the Cox Plate or the Vase at Moonee Valley this weekend.

Locky's tip - Honorius win. Good 2nd. Struck interference in the straight and was promoted to second on protest but the winner also had a checkered passage so no excuses. Looks like he'll appreciate Flemington though.

Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, set weights plus penalties)

Well I found a way to put the brakes on what appeared to be the good thing of the day on paper. Another great ride won this race with Craig Williams cutting the corner on Whateverwhenever to bag another winner on his way to a winning treble.

Locky's tip - King's Rose win. Sound 2nd. Had her chance to win but the big first-up run after a five month break may have told.

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

A field of just seven will greet the starter but they are a select bunch. The internationals dominate the market as you would expect after the result on the weekend. Gatewood looks best in at the weights and has the benefit of a run in this country under his belt. Forgive his run last start as he ran into more dead ends than a learner driver down the straight. Brigantin has thrived at Weribee from all reports.

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

I'm a huge Buffering fan. You won't get any flash price but he should just win. There are some talented ones up against him but this bloke is such a professional who just goes out there and does the job every week. Sea Siren the danger.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Never give a sucker a sniff

- Mother Teresa, Calcutta, 1992

Caulfied Carnival

It's that time of year again fellow racing tragics when all our attention turns to Melbourne for the culmination of the Spring Carnival.

Over the next 21 days we will witness 7 metropolitan race meetings with the nation's best horseflesh competing for more than $25 million in prizemoney and trophies in no less than 44 black type races including 11 Group 1's.

But before we look forward we must first look back...

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3-y-o, set weights)

As legendary racecaller Ken Howard loved to say "don't take odds on and don't run upstairs". If he'd seen Pierro get beaten last weekend he might well have added "and don't charge up the hill at Caulfield four wide with no cover". I'm not writing the favourite off just yet as it was a Herculean performance to only get run down in the shadows of the post and we've always suspected the winner All To Hard was of above average ability. But as far as I'm concerned you can forget the rest. If Epaulette couldn't run past Pierro after the torrid run he had he never will and the rest were so far back they couldn't have caught them on a short wave radio.

Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, handicap)

I couldn't believe it when they put up $7 about Solzhenitsyn early in the week. It was like stealing wheat from blind chooks. With the 8kg weight advantage he was always going to be the testing material for champion mare More Joyous who, let's face it, had won two glorified barrier trials in Sydney in the lead-up to this.

Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, w-f-a)

I don't think we saw the Cox Plate winner here. Ocean Park was sound but didn't put them to the sword, Sincero had every possible hope and Alcopop hasn't won for a long time but it was good to see him return to some form.

Schillaci Stakes (G2, 1000m, w-f-a)

Buffering looks to have the major sprints at his mercy over the coming weeks in the absence of Black Caviar and Hay List. He was simply outstanding last weekend and that run should top him off nicely for the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday night.

Herbert Power Stakes (G2, 2400m, quality)

The seemingly effortless last-to-first victory of Shawaardi bodes ill for the local hopes in the Cups this Spring. Whilst regarded as an above average galloper in his native Europe, he is nonetheless considered a grade below the likes of Americain, Dunaden, Brigantin and Tac de Boistron. But this bloke gave them windburn when he blew past them in the last 50 yards and that does not augur well for the Aussie staying hopes over the remainder of the carnival.

Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies, set weights)

Damien Oliver put a turbulent week behind him to win this race for the fifth time, this time aboard Atlantic Jewel's little sister Commanding Jewel. She won by a space but in terms of potential Oaks chances I think we need to look further back. Dear Demi was solid late after being held up but the real eye-catcher was Darley's Zydeco who flashed into 3rd and was immediately promoted to favourite for the November feature. And you just know she'll stay all day being a Zabeel (Octagonal, Might & Power, Efficient, Jezabeel).

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, handicap)

Avoid. This a sit and watch race for me. I can't have any of the locals and without any Australian form I find it difficult to tip an invader. As usual it will probably come down to tactics and luck in running. But if you're one of those obsessive, compulsive types who just has to have a bet in every race (like me) you could do worse than to have a peanut each-way on My Quest For Peace. He's drawn well, lightly weighted, in winning form and ridden by Corey Brown who broke a 12 month drought in Group 1's last week with victory aboard Solzhenitsyn. How often do you see someone snap a run of outs and then back it up with two or three more in quick succesion?

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* Southern Speed scratched to target the Cox Plate

Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

This race suits the topweights. Mosheen looked back to her best at her last start and although she has 58kg she'll only be 3kg above the limit under the SW+P conditions. Looks thrown into this at the relative weights.

Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, set weights plus penalties)

Another SW+P race and like the aforementioned Mosheen, King's Rose looks pitchforked into this with 56.5kg. She'll have to concede no more than 2.5kg to any of her rivals and will carry equal or less weight than five runners who on paper appear to have inferior credentials. Trained by Peter Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen. Apparently they go alright.

Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Honorius worked home well behind It's A Dundeel and Proisir in the Spring Champion Stakes. That form line looks stronger than Kabayan's yet the Waterhouse galloper has come up a short priced favourite? I'm quite happy to take the $5 on offer about this bloke as he looks a likely Derby type and the Melbourne form doesn't look as strong.

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

This race run next Wednesday will have a massive impact on Melbourne Cup markets. Nominations include the internationals Tac De Boistron, Brigantin, Gatewood, Shahwaardi and Ibicenco while the local charge will be led by the likes of Maluckyday, Tanby, Excluded and Exceptionally and throw in "adopted" Aussies in Mourayan and Midas Touch. In the last ten years three winners of this race have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup (Media Puzzle, Americain & Dunaden) and another two have been placed (On A Jeune, Bauer).

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

As I said earlier I think this race is Buffering's for the taking but there are some good types nominated in the form of Snitzerland, Sea Siren, Pampelonne and Bel Sprinter.

Locky's Lock of the Week

Randwick R8 No. 7 Emotional Circus

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Never take a tip from a man who still has to work for a living

- St Francis of Asissi, Venice Greyhounds (VG), 1214 A.D.