Friday, 23 August 2013

Warwick Stakes preview

So close but so far last weekend with three of the six selections running second in close finishes (including Cluster at $13) and another top selection placing (although I did have the winner in the top three selections) so it's back to the drawing board this week.

At least the radar is thereabouts and I'm not tipping runners that finish midfield or tailed off so hopefully with a little bit of tweaking (and an ounce of luck!) I can turn placegetters and Any 2's into winners tomorrow.

I feel like a kid on Xmas Eve I'm that excited because it's a magnificent day of racing with some nice horses resuming and surely will be the precursor of great things to come.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


It's Week Five and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Tulloch


On Warwick Stakes Day it is only fitting that we revisit the deeds of this mighty galloper because in 1957 it was the very race that started a remarkable Spring three-year-old campaign that would see him remain undefeated in eight starts.

After beating the older horses at weight-for-age in his first three-year-old start he would go on to capture the Rosehill Guineas before claiming the AJC Derby by six lengths and breaking the track record held by Phar Lap in the process. (Both these races are now held in the Autumn).

He then headed to Melbourne and despite dropping back from the mile and a half to the mile he still claimed the Caulfield Guineas. Seven days later he would beat the older brigade again, this time in the Caulfield Cup. He started a 6/4 favourite and ran the fastest time ever recorded for a mile and a half on turf to that point.

Next stop Flemington and a demolition job in the VRC Derby (12 lengths) before claiming the C.B. Fisher Plate (now the Queen Elizabeth) seven days later on the final day of the carnival, once again in open company. A week after that he finished his campaign with a six length romp in the Queensland Derby which was then run in the Spring. In all Tulloch started 16 times in his three-year-old season for 14 wins and two placings.

Unfortunately for Melbourne fans they would not see the wonder horse in the Spring for three more years as he contracted a severe stomach virus and nearly died and would not return to the racetrack for nearly two years.

Despite the near fatal setback he would go on to win 15 of his last 24 races including victories in the W.S. Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes, Chelmsford Stakes and Craven Plate in the Spring of 1961. During that time he also finished second in both the Colin Stephen Stakes and the George Main Stakes. He also ran 7th in the Melbourne Cup with the massive impost of 64kg.

At the end of his career Tulloch had won 19 races that are now classified as Group 1. He also won three races which are no longer held but were principal races in his day - the AJC Autumn Stakes (twice) and the VRC Queens Plate. In addition he won two other races that were then considered principal races but have since been downgraded or abandoned - the VRC and the AJC St Leger.



LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Dwayne Dunn has combined with the David Brideoake/David Feek training partnership seven times in the last seven weeks for a staggering six winners at a strike rate of 85.7%.

July 14 Crystal River $6.50
July 14 High Aims $5.00
July 24 Ominous Quality $4.80
July 28 High Aims $1.75
Aug 13 Self Sense $3.80
Aug 21 Self Sense $3.20

They combine again tomorrow on High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8).


Warwick Farm




*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)


Rain Affair leads here and probably at his leisure. From the chute they have just the one bend to negotiate so I don't anticipate breakneck speed especially with so many horses resuming who have bigger fish to fry further down the track. He probably controls the tempo and sprints home just like last time out and once again proves too good. Hard to tip against him.

Streama has residual fitness from her Brisbane campaign and can sit handy. She's never missed a place first-up, or at this track, or at this distance. Her record at this track and distance is great (3:2-1-0). Toydini ran a mighty race first-up last time to make up many lengths on an unsuitably wet track. If we're working on the assumption that the older horses are an even lot and last season's three-year-olds are better than he has to be in the mix.

Veyron has won five from six at this trip and races well second-up (5:3-2-0) and he will appreciate a bit of weight relief after lumping 64.5kg last start. He's a genuine trier with 14 wins and eight placings from 29 starts and was less than two lengths behind Pierro in the Group 1 George Ryder (1500m) during the Autumn Carnival.

Last time Metal Bender resumed after more than a year off the scene he stormed home from near last in a field of 15 to finish third to More Joyous in the Canterbury Stakes beaten a length and a half. He comes to hand quickly and he did win this race in 2010.

Locky's Selections

3 Rain Affair
14 Streama
5 Veyron

Silver Shadow Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)

Not a race that I am overly enamoured with as there are several resuming, one who has come off an inconclusive run and a few who are fit but up in grade.

The blinkers go on Sweet Idea so it would appear the stable is serious about this first-up assignment but she fair dinkum trialed like a goat. Twilight Royale won three from five in the Autumn plus second placings to the talented Swing Vote and mudlark Everage on a Heavy 13 when conceding her three kilos. Montsegur was desperately unlucky at Caulfield last Saturday but her final 100m was good when she finally saw daylight. Thump looked good winning a trial and reports from the stable are that she will be ridden more aggressively this campaign and will be closer to the speed. Not keen to have a punt here so I might just sit on my hands but if you put a gun to my head... I'd probably tell you to pull the trigger.

Locky's Selections

6 Thump
3 Montsegur
2 Twilight Royale

Other bets

Lucripetous (Warwick Farm Race 1 No. 3) finally broke through last start for a much needed win and I think he can go on with it. The best weighted of the three main fancies, I think the Waller stable can continue its dominance of Sydney staying races and Nash can add another winner to his four at Hawkesbury yesterday - his fourth quaddie in five weeks. $3.50.

Rebel Dane (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 9) is well placed here with just half a kilo over the minimum. Cruised past them in his trial and that was almost a month ago so Gary Portelli has had plenty of time to get him fit for this assignment. One of last season's good three-year-olds who is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten at the trip. Has had just the one start here at Warwick Farm for a fourth to It's A Dundeel in the Randwick Guineas when he'd probably had enough and didn't run out the mile. Back to a sprint trip he'll be hard to toss and I think whatever beats him will win. $2.70.

High Aims (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) will benefit from any rain that falls as she has been dominant in her last two wins on affected ground. She faces a stiff rise in class but that should be offset by the three kilo drop in weight. Has won three from four this time in and with the scratchings is drawn to get the gun run here. As previously mentioned the jockey/ trainer combo is flying. A dry track might be a concern to some but I think she's turned the corner and the StrathAyr surface does race like a dead track most of the time. $4.40.

Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 1) will be well known to followers of this blog as a horse I have been following. He got us the chocolates at $8 last time out when he came from last to win by an ever widening three and half lengths and the stable is now talking about a possible Sydney Spring campaign. Despite a drop back in distance and a rise in the weights I still think he can take care of this lot and he is backable at $3.30.

Kneeling (Morphettville Race 8 No. 9) is Peter Moody's only runner in Adelaide tomorrow and she is an example of a type I like to follow - a mare in form. Followed back-to-back wins in Queensland with a good second behind the talented Henwood. Then came from last in a sit and sprint affair (1st 600m 37.09 / Last 600m 34.86) to be just a length and half off another good one in Octavia. I can entertain her at $6.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Luke Nolen will ride at Moonee Valley tomorrow after having his careless riding ban reduced by one meeting.

"Trumby" was outed for seven meetings at Geelong last week but appealed against both the decision and the penalty. The former was dismissed.

Nash Rawiller isn't so lucky - he's copped a six meeting suspension beginning September 1 for causing interference aboard his first of four winners at Hawkesbury yesterday.

It means the champion hoop will be free to ride Fiorente in the Memsie Stakes next week but will miss the Chelmsford Stakes and Wyong Cup meetings.

Tommy Berry will also be on the sidelines for a stretch after two separate careless riding suspensions at Canterbury on Wednesday.

He can ride tomorrow but begins his suspension the following day and can't resume until September 8, meaning he'll miss the next two Saturday meetings.

Danny Nikolic is in trouble again too but quite frankly I'm sick of hearing about him. If you haven't had enough of him you can read more here.

Meantime stewards have come down hard on five wayward horses, ordering them back to the trials for re-education.

Erratic winner Photon Willie and  barrier rogue Whittington will have to show they can behave, as will Sugar Rush, Studio and Champagne Cath.

Lastly Group 1 winner Ethiopia (below) geared up for his Spring return with an exhibition gallop at Sale yesterday.

He's due to return in the Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington on September 7.



LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Jason Holder has ridden four winners this week including a treble at Strathalbyn on Wednesday. He's ridden eight winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one in four. Has a host of rides tomorrow at Morphettville but just be aware that the track is likely to be rain affected. Three rides for no winners but as I warned it was a Heavy 8.


Caulfield


P.B. Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

I hate to sound like a contestant on "The Einstein Factor" whose special subject is "Stating The Bloody Obvious" but the winner was outstanding. One run in nine months and first-up since March, well documented bone chip problems, on a Cups campaign, back to last in a fast run 1400m race, given just a couple of slaps across the shoulder and won with a leg in the air. Hard to make a case for anything behind him unless they drop back a grade because this Memsie field looks like it will be a corker.

Locky's Selections

1 Second Effort (3rd) $2.20 place.
4 Puissance De Lune (1st) $3.50 win / $1.80 place.
2 Launay (7th)

Any 2 1-4 $3.40


Rosehill



San Domenico Stakes (Group 3, 1100m, set weights plus penalties)

I mentioned five horses in my preview last week - one was scratched at the barrier whilst the others combined to provide a First Four that paid $813.60. But I can't take any credit because I didn't have the winner in my top three.

Great ride by Tim Clark got the chocolates. Cluster and Sidestep the horses to follow going forward because both were unlucky and appeared to need the run.

Locky's Selections

9 Cluster (2nd) $2.50 place.
7 Windjammer (3rd) $1.50 place.
1 Sidestep (4th)

Any 2 7-9 $8.00

Other bets

Lady Melksham (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) looks the best on a good but tough day at Caulfield with some quality thoroughbreds going around. Flies fresh and trialed like a bomb from all reports. A winner of four from five at this trip including this race last year. Not badly in with just two kilos over the limit. $5.00 looks appealing. 5th. Copped a bump on the turn but appeared to have every possible chance. Jockey Glen Boss said after the race that she may simply be a wet tracker. Was only a length away at the finish. Not sacking her just yet.

Coup Ay Tee (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) is a no-brainer here for for mine. An in-form sprinter in a race full of resuming stayers and non-winners. Showed a devastating turn of foot to beat some quality imports in a Listed race last start and drops back to handicap grade here. $2.80 looks like charity. 5th. Ridden upside down. Needs a smother and the final shot at them but instead was ridden outside the lead with no cover. Forgive.


*** Won the Hawkesbury Cup yesterday at $5.80. ***



Catkins (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who does her best racing fresh (three from three) and she's well in here with the three kilo claim. An on-pace runner who is drawn to get a saloon passage in transit. The one the backmarkers will have to run down. $3.50. 2nd. $1.60 place. Had her chance but wasn't too disappointing as she was a newly turned 4-y-o mare taking on the older boys for the first time. There's a nice fillies and mares race in her somewhere this Spring. Follow.

Less Is More (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5) was desperately unlucky last time and I'm sure most racegoers would have seen the run. Hell, I think even Ray Charles saw the run. The wider draw this week should see him get more running room in the straight and he'll take improvement from his last hit-out because he was eight weeks between runs and dropping from 2400m to 1500m. $3.80. 2nd. $2.00 place. Second-up after an eight week break and straight from 1500m to 1800m probably told when he was forced to chase the tearaway leader a long way from home. Plenty of merit in the run.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


It doesn't get much easier than that.
- Glen Boss, Caulfield, 17 August 2013

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Thursday, 15 August 2013

P.B. Lawrence Stakes preview

Five races tipped in last week for three winners and a second including a 7/1 shot in Brisbane.

Let's hope it's not a one-off...

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


It's Week Four and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Eurythmic


With the return of top quality weight-for-age racing to Caulfield this weekend it is only fitting that we look back at this great West Australian champion who dominated at The Heath in his final three seasons.

After spending his two and three-year-old years in WA, connections made the trip to the eastern seaboard in the Spring of 1920 and Eurythmic was on song.

He won the Memsie Stakes at 20-1 and was immediately installed as favourite for the October Stakes (think the modern day Turnbull) in which he duly saluted by a length and a half. He followed that with wins in the Caulfield Stakes and the Caulfield Cup, despite conceding almost six and a half kilos to the placegetters in the latter. At his last start that campaign he would finish fourth to Poitrel in the Melbourne Cup - his only defeat in 13 starts in his four-year-old year!

At his first start as a five-year-old he won the Memsie Stakes again before finishing a short half head second in the October Stakes. He then set a race record in winning his second Caulfield Stakes before claiming the Herbert Power and the Mackinnon. He started favourite in The Cup but was pulled up after suffering interference.

In his final racing season he won the Memsie Stakes and the Caulfield Stakes for the third year in a row and placed in both the Herbert Power and the Mackinnon. He retired the greatest stakes winner in Australia.


LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Jason Holder has ridden four winners this week including a treble at Strathalbyn on Wednesday. He's ridden eight winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one in four. Has a host of rides tomorrow at Morphettville but just be aware that the track is likely to be rain affected.


Caulfield



*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4 but the forecast is for isolated showers tonight and tomorrow. ***

P.B. Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)


I'm attacking this race on the basis that I am looking outside Puissance De Lune but I'll have him in my exotics. Sure he's the best galloper in the race by a long way and all reports are he has trialed superbly but fair dinkum - $2.10 about a horse on a Cups campaign when first-up over 1400m? No thanks. Leave me out of that. Good to see him back though.

Second Effort is the one for mine. His record would suggest that he's a better 1200m horse but he's only been tried four times at the 1400m. Three of those were at Caulfield and resulted in a win (in this race last year no less) and a placing. His last start win here was strong and that followed a flashing first-up run and I think there's still room for improvement in the old boy. Traditionally his best form has been displayed three runs or more into a preparation (16:8-0-3) and the Memsie in a fortnight is his grand final. A bit of rain would only enhance his chances further.

Launay shows his best form when second-up (four wins) and also at 1400m (five wins) and if this was being run at Flemington I'd probably back him each-way but his record here isn't flash. Three goes at the track and distance and he's never run a drum. In fact he's won here only once from 10 attempts, although he has been placed five times.

High Esteem has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup so I don't think Peter Moody will have him screwed down enough to win this but he could be running on. Did string together three on the trot at the end of his last prep but he's blown like an Ekka Wednesday westerly in the betting ($8.50 out to $18).

Ajeeb and Under The Sun will ensure a good tempo but I doubt they can stick on at this level although they will both be fit. Pago Rock hasn't won beyond 1100m since March last year. All three have been tried in early markets however.

Under The Eiffel and Bianmick look outclassed.

Locky's Selections

1 Second Effort
4 Puissance De Lune
2 Launay


Rosehill




*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. There is the slight chance of a little rain tomorrow. ***

San Domenico Stakes (Group 3, 1100m, set weights plus penalties)

All boys here and Sidestep was clearly the pick of them in the Autumn but the question remains has he returned as good? We won't know until after tomorrow. In fact that is a question that has to be asked of all bar one runner.

Windjammer is the horse I'm talking about of course. He has a run under his belt and it was a good return. He got back but powered to the line to win by a good margin with good closing sectionals. The worry is top jock Hugh Bowman has jumped off him to ride another.

That horse is Cluster. He's had just the one career start for a midfield sixth behind the talented Zoustar. Has had two trials in readiness for this. Hugh has ridden him in all three of those runs and sticks solid despite his maiden status. Watch the market.

Whittington and Va Pensiero comfortably accounted for Windjammer back in March and have a couple of good trials under their belt but you just don't know if they have returned in the same order. 

Locky's Selections

9 Cluster
7 Windjammer
1 Sidestep

Other bets

Lady Melksham (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) looks the best on a good but tough day at Caulfield with some quality thoroughbreds going around. Flies fresh and trialed like a bomb from all reports. A winner of four from five at this trip including this race last year. Not badly in with just two kilos over the limit. $5.00 looks appealing.

Coup Ay Tee (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) is a no-brainer here for for mine. An in-form sprinter in a race full of resuming stayers and non-winners. Showed a devastating turn of foot to beat some quality imports in a Listed race last start and drops back to handicap grade here. $2.80 looks like charity.

Catkins (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who does her best racing fresh (three from three) and she's well in here with the three kilo claim. An on-pace runner who is drawn to get a saloon passage in transit. The one the backmarkers will have to run down. $3.50.

Less Is More (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5) was desperately unlucky last time and I'm sure most racegoers would have seen the run. Hell, I think even Ray Charles saw the run. The wider draw this week should see him get more running room in the straight and he'll take improvement from his last hit-out because he was eight weeks between runs and dropping from 2400m to 1500m. $3.80.


NEWS OF THE WEEK


Bart Cummings famous silks will be protected as recognition of his contribution to racing.

Officials declared on Tuesday that his green and gold colours cannot be used for another 50 years even if they are retired before then.



Meanwhile there are a few good horses set to resume in coming weeks.

Rebel Dane is set to step-out next Saturday in the Show County Quality at Warwick Farm while Norzita had an exhibition gallop midweek ahead of her expected return in the Toy Show Quality on the same day.

Miracles of Life will resume a week later at Caulfield in the McNeil Stakes while Dear Demi will make her first Spring appearance in the Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington on September 7.

Commanding Jewel meantime will bypass tomorrow's Cockram Stakes and will likely head to a 1000m Listed race at Moonee Valley next weekend.

Lastly officials say the Werribee track will be ready to host the international contingent this Spring following extensive repairs.

An investigation was launched after the July 17 meeting at the venue had to be abandoned due to the unsafe condition of the track.


LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Paul Messara has started the new season with a bang, training three winners and three placegetters from his first eight runners. In fact since July 22 he's had six wins and five placings from 14 starters (Win 42.9% / Place 78.6%). Has just the one runner tomorrow in Mic Mac (Randwick Race 5 No. 3). 2nd. $1.90 place.

Royal Randwick


Missile Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, w-f-a)

I'm not taking any credit here because Rain Affair looked the obvious winner and the quinella wasn't hard to guess either. Could this be the prep when Rain Affair finally cracks that maiden Group 1?

Locky's Selections

2 Rain Affair (1st) $1.30 win / $1.10 place.
3 Mic Mac (2nd) $1.90 place.
7 My Destiny (4th)

Exacta 2-3 $2.70
Quinella 2-3 $2.70

The Rosebud (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

The Cummings team look to have a good colt here in Eurozone. Forced to race against his usual pattern he still managed to find in the straight and was pulling away at the end. Loved the way he savaged the winning post. Follow.

Locky's Selections

5 Eurozone (1st) $3.10 win / $1.50 place.
3 Bull Point (4th)
6 Good Job Bro (5th)

Other bets

Gangster's Choice (Randwick Race 8 No. 6) won a 1400m Benchmark 85 first-up at this meeting last year and yet he'll go around at double figure odds tomorrow - probably because of the wet track. Hoop James McDonald has ridden four winners for trainer John O'Shea in the last seven days and is coming off midweek trebles at Goulburn (Tuesday) and Hawkesbury (Thursday) and had just the one ride at Wyong today for yet another winner. 12th. Report from the jockey was he didn't handle the going and dipped at the 800m. Forgive?

Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 2) was one I tipped two weeks ago and he went OK, coming from last on the turn to finish fourth beaten just under two lengths. I'll give him one more chance because I think his racing pattern suggests he'll be a better horse at Eagle Farm with the longer straight. Meets his last start conqueror two kilos better off. $6.50. 1st. $8.00 win / $2.40 place. Follow.

Temple of Boom (Flemington Race 7 No. 2) has average form on paper until you realise that in his last five starts he's chased home the likes of Mental, Snitzerland, Bel Sprinter, Buffering and Your Song. This is a much easier assignment and the wet track is a big plus because he has five wins and three seconds from 10 starts on slow or worse. He won this race two years ago and boasts another two wins down the Flemington straight and he's also won four times first-up. $4.20. 2nd. $2.00 place. Looked the winner but didn't dash quickly enough.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


They really didn't think that through first.
- Sitting Bull, Little Bighorn, 26 June 1876

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Friday, 9 August 2013

Missile Stakes / Rosebud preview

The radar was almost spot on last week. I was thereabouts but I just seemed to be following horses who were following another horse.

Hopefully that string of second placings can be converted to winners this weekend but unfortunately we'll have to deal with rain affected tracks in both Sydney and Melbourne after downpours during the week.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


It's Week Three and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Grand Flaneur


This Hall of Famer had just the nine career starts but won them all - including a string of five victories in the Spring of 1880 that saw him win the AJC Derby (at just his second start!) followed by wins in the AJC & VRC Mares Produce Stakes then the Melbourne Cup and a few days later the VRC Derby.

Not a bad CV for a horse that had just six starts to that point. 

He won over distances ranging from five furlongs to three miles (1000m-4800m) and he went on to be leading sire in Australia in 1895 and near the top of the list for a decade. His progeny include Melbourne Cup winner Patron, Epsom Handicap winner Hopscotch and (GB) Ascot Gold Cup winner Merman.



LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Paul Messara has started the new season with a bang, training three winners and three placegetters from his first eight runners. In fact since July 22 he's had six wins and five placings from 14 starters (Win 42.9% / Place 78.6%). Has just the one runner tomorrow in Mic Mac (Randwick Race 5 No. 3).

Royal Randwick




*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast for tomorrow is for a sunny day after an early morning shower. ***

Missile Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, w-f-a)


I don't like tipping odds-on favourites but Rain Affair really does seem to get conditions to suit here with the rain tumbling down midweek. He's won six from seven on slow or heavy with his only miss being a second to Your Song in the BTC Cup in May. Looks primed for a big first-up run after a dominant nine length trial win last Friday. Weight-for-age conditions also suit.

The only knock is that this Randwick track has not been kind to frontrunners in recent weeks, especially when the rail is out. Most winners have been coming down the crown of the track and from off the speed.

Hay List is next in the market but I can't have him. I need to see him do something first. I love the big guy and he has been a wonderful servant to racing in this country but he won't be carrying any of mine until he shows me he has returned in top order. Best wishes to him and connections though because if it wasn't for bad luck this bloke would have no luck at all. It may be a moot point too because a decision on whether he runs or not will not be made until race morning.

Next best according to the market is Mic Mac even though he has never really shown a liking for affected ground. He does however have race fitness on his side and he's been around the money in his last three starts and will appreciate a little weight relief. He's been lumping huge imposts in handicap affairs and giving away a lot of weight to those on the minimum. He won't know himself tomorrow.

Everything else is double figure odds but there are a couple I could make a case for in my exotics. Title is a three time winner here, a five time winner at the distance and has four wins on slow or worse going. My Destiny handles wet tracks and does her best racing with a couple of runs under her belt and did string together four on end late last year so she has ability. 

Atomic Force hasn't won for a long time and has only beaten a handful of runners home at his last half a dozen starts. Centennial Park has had 10 starts at Randwick and has never run a place and Mrs Onassis has taken a bath in the betting ($13 out to $21) possibly because of the rain (any worse than dead and she'll probably be scratched anyway), her ordinary first-up effort or the fact that she's never won beyond 1100m.

Lastly - four eight-year-olds, a seven-year-old and three six-year-olds. This is what happens when all your good horses are sent to stud early.

Locky's Selections

2 Rain Affair
3 Mic Mac
7 My Destiny

The Rosebud (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

* Dream Forward is an early scratching


Eurozone meets Bull Point a half kilo better off for beating him last time out and the form from the race looks strong with the fourth placegetter Kirov (who was beaten nine lengths that day) subsequently posting successive victories. I think these colts will fight it out and I think Eurozone can get the job done again and keep his unbeaten record intact.

The fillies Watabout and Northern Glory are in commission and their recent winning form on wet tracks has to have them in the mix but I just think the formline isn't as strong and they do meet the boys poorly at the weights too.

The best roughies for mine are Good Job Bro who won a race on a wet track by a big margin in the lead-up to the Golden Slipper, and Dissident who showed ability in an abbreviated Melbourne Autumn campaign.

Locky's Selections

5 Eurozone
3 Bull Point
6 Good Job Bro

Other bets

Gangster's Choice (Randwick Race 8 No. 6) won a 1400m Benchmark 85 first-up at this meeting last year and yet he'll go around at double figure odds tomorrow - probably because of the wet track. Hoop James McDonald has ridden four winners for trainer John O'Shea in the last seven days and is coming off midweek trebles at Goulburn (Tuesday) and Hawkesbury (Thursday) and had just the one ride at Wyong today for yet another winner.

Teronado (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 2) was one I tipped two weeks ago and he went OK, coming from last on the turn to finish fourth beaten just under two lengths. I'll give him one more chance because I think his racing pattern suggests he'll be a better horse at Eagle Farm with the longer straight. Meets his last start conqueror two kilos better off. $6.50

Temple of Boom (Flemington Race 7 No. 2) has average form on paper until you realise that in his last five starts he's chased home the likes of Mental, Snitzerland, Bel Sprinter, Buffering and Your Song. This is a much easier assignment and the wet track is a big plus because he has five wins and three seconds from 10 starts on slow or worse. He won this race two years ago and boasts another two wins down the Flemington straight and he's also won four times first-up. $4.20.


NEWS OF THE WEEK


Tributes continue to flow in following the tragic death of jockey Simone Montgomerie in a race fall at the Darwin Cup meeting on Monday.

Jockey Glen Boss will be donating all the prizemoney he earns this week to the Montgomerie Fund. Fellow hoop Tommy Berry will do the same with all his earnings from the Wednesday Canterbury meeting, while trainer David Hayes and owner Phil Sly will donate their winnings from the Sandown meeting on the same day.


The Darwin Turf Club has pledged the $200,000 purse from the abandoned Darwin Cup to the fund and the first races at both the Sydney and Melbourne meetings tomorrow have been named in Simone's honour.



Cup sponsors CUB have also donated $50,000, which has been matched by the Northern Territory government.

Chad Schofield will be out of action until next Saturday after stewards dismissed his appeal against a careless riding suspension incurred last Friday.

The news is worse for his father Glyn though. On his first day back from suspension for weighing in light he's been rubbed out again, this time for careless riding at Rosehill last Saturday.

Lastly super stallion Zabeel has reached another milestone with Lovin' Connection's win in a New Zealand maiden on Monday giving him his 1000th individual winner.

Zabeel is already the sire of 43 individual Group 1 winners including three Melbourne Cup winners in Might & Power, Jezabeel and Efficient.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Peter Robl and David Vandyke have been in good touch recently with Robl riding four winners at Gosford yesterday and Vandyke saddling 10 winners and five placegetters from his last 24 runners. They have combined for 20 winners in the last 12 months from just 63 starters and they combine again tomorrow at Rosehill with Magic in the Mix (Race 4 No. 11) 6th, Breakfast in Bed (Race 5 No. 7) 2nd $1.80 place and Less is More (Race 6 No. 9) 5th.

Rosehill


Winter Challenge (Listed, 1500m, quality handicap)

Had the quinella here, just in the wrong order. The winner just sprinted too quickly for the import but it may pay to follow the runner-up who was having his first start for a new stable and his first run in eight months.

Locky's Selections

1 Bayrir (2nd) $1.80 place
8 Coup Ay Tee (1st) $9.50 win / $2.40 place
2 Under The Sun (7th)

Quinella 1-8 $13.30
Exacta 8-1 $35.80
Any 2 1-8 $5.50


Other bets

Aroused (Doomben Race 1 No. 8) has won four from six and I don't think Allan Denham made the trip from Wyong on a whim. Punters obviously agree because he opened $4.80 but that has been snapped up and he is now $3.10. Stable is flying with three winners last Saturday plus another at Wyong on Wednesday. Denham's only runner tomorrow at any track. 7th. Disgraceful.

Love for Ransom (Moonee Valley Race 4 No. 5) caught the eye with her flashing last start effort and it obviously impressed jockey Dwayne Dunn because he's staying solid even though he also rode last start winner and what appears the biggest threat in Ominous Quality. Another that has been well found but hopefully we can still get $4. 2nd. $1.80 place. Looked home until bloused late by a 30-1 shot. Story of my day.

Breakfast in Bed (Rosehill Race 5 No.7) is another that's been tried in early markets, possibly because of the Vandyke/Robl combo but also possibly because he was a dual acceptor. If they choose to bypass the easier race at Kembla Grange to contest this event in town beware. She's a winner of four from nine who is in consistent form and in a race lacking any real superstars I think she's a good each-way bet at around the $7 mark. 2nd. $1.80 place. Held up for a run at a crucial stage and it cost him victory.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


I've watched the Kennedy assassination a hundred times and I'm convinced the gunman missed.
- Kumar Dharmasena, using the DRS at Old Trafford, 2 August 2013.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Friday, 2 August 2013

Winter Challenge preview

It's Week One of the new racing season and you just know Spring can't be too far away when a host of big names step out to blow off the cobwebs at the barrier trials.

Today at Randwick we saw the likes of Group 1 winning mares Appearance and Norzita, topline sprinters Hay List and Rain Affair (who was super impresssive) plus Cup hopefuls Fiorente, Julienas, Glencadam Gold, Michelangelo and their stablemate the Queen's horse Carlton House (who also looked great).

Also stepping out were emerging three-year-olds Sidestep, Drago, Sweet Idea and Scandiva but the highlight for me was the return of the eight-year-old war horse Metal Bender after almost 16 months off the scene.

But all that aside let's look for some winners... and I hope that 2013-2014 will be a successful season on the punt for one and all -  myself included.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


It's Week Two and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I wrote last week over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Peter Pan


Of the five horses to have won multiple Melbourne Cups, Peter Pan is the only one to have won them in non-consecutive years.

When you consider that the striking chestnut with the flaxen mane missed the 1933 race because he was battling a near-fatal viral illness, it makes the feat all the more extraordinary.

As a three-year-old in 1932 Peter Pan captured the Hill Stakes in his first weight-for-age start before claiming the AJC Derby. He then headed south to Melbourne to win the Mackinnon Stakes and the Melbourne Cup.

His 1932 Cup victory was miraculous. He clipped heels and fell to his knees mid-race. He was only saved by the fact that a horse following him cannoned into his hind quarters and pushed him back onto his feet. Reports of the day say that when he returned to the winner’s enclosure a grass stain was clearly visible on his face.

In 1934, after more than a year on the sidelines, he would claim another Mackinnon Stakes (beating Hall Mark and Chatham) before contesting his second Melbourne Cup. He drew the outside barrier on a bog track and was asked to carry 61.5kg and still won despite conceding a whopping 16kg to runner-up Sarcherie.

In 1935 he was struck down again by a recurrence of the illness that had nearly killed him two years earlier but was once again nursed back to health by trainer Frank McGrath. He was not his old self however although he did manage to collect the Hill Stakes, the AJC Spring Stakes and the Craven Plate in Sydney during the Spring before having a crack at a third Melbourne Cup. He finished 13th with 66kg and was immediately retired.



LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Peter Robl and David Vandyke have been in good touch recently with Robl riding four winners at Gosford yesterday and Vandyke saddling 10 winners and five placegetters from his last 24 runners. They have combined for 20 winners in the last 12 months from just 63 starters and they combine again tomorrow at Rosehill with Magic in the Mix (Race 4 No. 11), Breakfast in Bed (Race 5 No. 7) and Less is More (Race 6 No. 9).

Rosehill










*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The track has had just 1mm of rain in the last week and has not been irrigated. The forecast is for a sunny day tomorrow. ***

Winter Challenge (Listed, 1500m, quality handicap)


Bayrir for mine here. This bloke looks to be a proper horse. A winner of four from eight including a Group 1 in the US. He's also finished second in a Group 2 in France, he's run in an Arc de Triomphe and was just a couple of lengths behind Red Cadeaux in the Hong Kong Vase at his last start.

If you want to knock him you could point to the weight but he's a quality animal just 5kg over the limit and let's face it the opposition aren't exactly world beaters. You could also point to the fact that he hasn't started for eight months, he's in a new stable and a new country and that he's never won at under 1800m but I'm happy to take the $4.60 because quite frankly I just think he's better than this lot.

Coup Ay Tee has been in solid if not scintillating form lately and made good ground late behind Under The Sun in the Winter Stakes off a muddling tempo and he does meet his conqueror from that day three kilos better off tomorrow.

Under the Sun can't be dismissed lightly though because he's also in rock solid form and has three goes at the Rosehill 1500m for two wins and a second. I'm just concerned that he is starting to creep up in the weights and that makes me wary of stepping into $3 but he is certainly a winning chance.

Best of the rest is probably Less Is More because as I've previously mentioned the trainer and jockey are a formiddable combination and he is another import who has shown ability but I think he needs more ground and his first-up run last prep was average.

Locky's Selections

1 Bayrir
8 Coup Ay Tee
2 Under The Sun


Other bets

Aroused (Doomben Race 1 No. 8) has won four from six and I don't think Allan Denham made the trip from Wyong on a whim. Punters obviously agree because he opened $4.80 but that has been snapped up and he is now $3.10. Stable is flying with three winners last Saturday plus another at Wyong on Wednesday. Denham's only runner tomorrow at any track.

Love for Ransom (Moonee Valley Race 4 No. 5) caught the eye with her flashing last start effort and it obviously impressed jockey Dwayne Dunn because he's staying solid even though he also rode last start winner and what appears the biggest threat in Ominous Quality. Another that has been well found but hopefully we can still get $4.

Breakfast in Bed (Rosehill Race 5 No.7) is another that's been tried in early markets, possibly because of the Vandyke/Robl combo but also possibly because he was a dual acceptor. If they choose to bypass the easier race at Kembla Grange to contest this event in town beware. She's a winner of four from nine who is in consistent form and in a race lacking any real superstars I think she's a good each-way bet at around the $7 mark.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Plenty of news in the jockey ranks with Nash Rawiller edging out Hugh Bowman for the Sydney premiership while his brother Brad has claimed the national title.

Meantime little known 17-y-o apprentice Jamie Kah has claimed the South Australian senior premiership in her first full season of riding.

Some better known names return to action this weekend after some time-off with Craig Williams set to resume at Moonee Valley while Jim Cassidy is back in the saddle at Rosehill, as is Kerrin McEvoy for the Darley team.

Brenton Avdulla will also be riding at Rosehill tomorrow but after that he'll be out of the saddle until August 15.

Stewards slapped him with a five meeting ban for careless riding and stripped his mount Loch Leven of victory for shifting in at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.
 
Luke Nolen however will not be riding at Moonee Valley tomorrow. He's been forced to rule himself out after putting on a few kilos during his two-week break from riding but he will return at Sandown on Wednesday.
 
 
Lastly the breeding industry is in mourning following the sudden death of emerging young stallion Northern Meteor (below) from a colic attack at Widden Stud in the Hunter Valley on Tuesday night.

He had just claimed champion first-season sire honours and had only just recently provided the quinella in the Group 1 J. J. Atkins (1600m) for two-year-olds at Eagle Farm with Romantic Touch and Zoustar.



LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?

In the month of July Gold Coast trainer Helen Page has taken 18 horses to the races for six winners and four placegetters (Win 33.3% / Place 55.5%). Love Stories looks her best tomorrow. (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 13) 3rd. $1.60 place. Powerful Jet (Gold Coast Race 5 No. 4) won at $4.00 win / $2.00 place.

Caulfield



Bletchingly Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, w-f-a)

Funny race. The horse with only one second-up victory and just the one win on dead or better got the money. Elite Elle who normally leads was hooked back (thanks to connections for the heads up - not!) and Pago Rock didn't fire a shot after having every possible. Just another way to do your coin. Glad I've scaled back my wagering in line with the ordinary racing.

Locky's Selections

5 Pago Rock (5th)
11 Elite Elle (7th)
2 Launay (3rd) $2.00 place.


Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Koe (Caulfield Race 8 No. 11) got us the chocolates last start and was scratched last weekend when tipped here, after the track underwent a series of downgrades due to the inclement weather. I'll stick solid even though this is a tougher assignment here up against the boys but on the plus side of the ledger she does get some weight relief - dropping to 54kg after lumping 60kg to victory in fillies and mares grade last start. Has won four from five this prep including her last three in a row, all at the 1400m. A mare who is in-form in a race where a lot of these boys aren't. As much as $7 was bet. 4th. Might be a better horse on bigger tracks like Flemington.

Octavia (Caulfield Race 5 No. 9) did all the hard work out in front last start on a track where quite frankly you didn't want to be anywhere near lead and the rail. Another in-form mare who finds herself down on the minimum weight. They bet more than $4 early but that has since disappeared as the smarties tumbled into her. Get on quick! 1st. $1.95 win / $1.20 place. Backed off the map!

Yulalona (Randwick Race 7 No. 2) just missed in the Grafton Cup behind a horse of whom I have a high opinion in Mr O'Ceirin. Loomed up to win but just died on his run. That should top him off nicely for this and Hugh Bowman needs all the winners he can get to stave off the challenge from Nash Rawiller for the Jockey's Premiership. Backable at $7.50. 3rd. $2.40 place. SACKED. Had the run of the race and offered nothing.

Teronado (Doomben Race 2 No. 2) showed promise in his only campaign to date with two wins by good margins and a second on a bog track in his first three starts. Has since been gelded and has been tuned up for this with a trial win two and a half weeks ago. Looks a good each-way bet at $9. 4th. OK. Don't dismiss.


QUOTE OF THE DAY


I'll serve her... but you've got to catch her for me first.
- Exceed & Excel, Darley, Spring 2013.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!