The Winter Carnival is winding down now and the Ipswich Cup meeting is not one that has been kind to me over the years so keep that in mind when perusing my thoughts and tips this week.
It will be a fascinating meeting nonetheless with races like the Ipswich Cup, Eye Liner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic on the card.
Unfortunately it's been a wet week in Queensland with persistent rain from last Sunday through Wednesday but the last few days have been fine and the track should bounce back but it will still be rain affected.
It will be a fascinating meeting nonetheless with races like the Ipswich Cup, Eye Liner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic on the card.
Unfortunately it's been a wet week in Queensland with persistent rain from last Sunday through Wednesday but the last few days have been fine and the track should bounce back but it will still be rain affected.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
With all the east coast tracks rain affected to some degree I'm looking to WA where Daniel Staeck has been in scintillating form of late. He's ridden a winner at the last five consecutive Belmont meetings, including two doubles.
But it's when he combines with Fred Kersley that you really need to look out. Since May 25 the duo has combined seven times for five wins and a second at Belmont plus a third at Northam midweek. They haven't missed a drum. Ridiculous stats.
They're back at Belmont tomorrow where they combine on Gunnery Sergeant (Race 2 No.3), Secret Ruler (Race 4 No. 4) & Confianza (Race 6 No.10).
But it's when he combines with Fred Kersley that you really need to look out. Since May 25 the duo has combined seven times for five wins and a second at Belmont plus a third at Northam midweek. They haven't missed a drum. Ridiculous stats.
They're back at Belmont tomorrow where they combine on Gunnery Sergeant (Race 2 No.3), Secret Ruler (Race 4 No. 4) & Confianza (Race 6 No.10).
Ipswich
*** As of 4.45pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The track has had 46mm of rain in the last week including 25mm on Wednesday alone. There has however been warm, sunny conditions today and this is expected to continue tomorrow.
I am working on the assumption the track will be around a Slow 6 because this track does recover quickly. ***
I am working on the assumption the track will be around a Slow 6 because this track does recover quickly. ***
Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150, quality handicap)
One look at the track map above will show that it is a very short run to the first corner and from there on you are practically on one big long sweeping bend until you re-enter the straight. Therefore drawing a good barrier and having the ability to race on the speed is crucial. I think that horse could be Planetarium. Gerald Ryan does tend to target some of his horses at this program (he won back-to-back Eye Liner Stakes with Adnocon in 2010/11) and Brenton Avdulla is in winning form this Winter Carnival having ridden this bloke to his previous win on Oaks Day before combining with Howmuchdoyouloveme to claim the Lightning Handicap last weekend on Super Saturday.
Viola Ici has been installed a $3.50 favourite but I can't see myself tumbling into that from barrier 19 with 60kg. He's never won in this country and has had one good run in the last nine months. He will however relish the wet track and at his best he has lengths on these.
Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).
Next best are probably Muirfield, High Kin and Topping who all have some wet track form.
Za Magic meets Planetarium three kilos better off than last time out when less than a quarter of a length separated them. He'll be in the first half dozen from barrier six (after scratchings) and has two wins at the distance and three wins on slow or worse going (albeit from 16 attempts).
Next best are probably Muirfield, High Kin and Topping who all have some wet track form.
Locky's Selections
11 Za Magic
14 Planetarium
14 Planetarium
1 Viola Ici
Eye Liner Stakes (Listed, 1350m, quality handicap)
Dances On Stars should get a saloon passage here from barrier one and, with the exception of last weekend's Stradbroke, the three-year-olds just seem to have the edge on their older rivals at Group 1 level these last four months. Trained by that man Ryan too.
Conservatorium comes off good Adelaide and Brisbane form and is also drawn to get a good run in transit but will have to concede six kilos to the three-year-old. He can be right in it when the whips are cracking but I can't have him on top with that impost.
There's been a few bets at long odds in early markets for Celtic Dancer, possibly because he has three wins from four starts in heavy going. He's won four times at the 1350m and was placed on his only visit to this track.
Jetset Lad will appreciate the big drop in class after contesting races like the BTC Cup and Doomben 10,000 in recent weeks. Mahisara was well backed when a last start failure so it may pay to forgive that run as somebody obviously thought he was ready to fire. Morning Captain has been trapped wide after drawing poorly at his last three starts but from gate 12 tomorrow he may well do it tough again.
Locky's Selections
1 Conservatorium
8 Celtic Dancer
Gai Waterhouse Classic (Listed, 1350m, qualirt handicap)
Followers of this blog will know that I am a big fan of Peron and have been following her for some time. The wet track is the only knock becauase her only failure to date was a third on a slow track at Doomben in February but that was tempo related. The leader that day walked in front then sprinted home while this filly was back near last after a slow start. Plus it was her first go at a mile. Back to 1350m from a cosy draw and in on the minimum she does look the one but get in ASAP because she's been well found in early markets.
Bound To Blush has been within a length or two of Detours in two races this prep and just missed in the Glenlogan Park Stakes. This is a similar level but the wet track is a query. Classics was sound first-up and has won two from four second-up and as I've said before Darley do place their fillies and mares well in these Stakes races. Has won twice on affected ground.
Love For Ransom is a one-time Thousand Guineas favourite and her first-up run was better than it looks on paper. She hardly saw daylight in the straight and yet still managed to come from last and run past five runners despite the fact that Michael Cahill had her in a sleeper hold.
Whateverwhenever won a 1400m Group 3 race in Melbourne on Caulfield Cup Day last October. She's probably going to get out to silly odds tomorrow ($51) and can be forgiven her last two runs because her first-up and second-up form is poor (8:1-1-1). Three runs or further into a prep her record is much better (21:7-3-4). Unbeaten in two starts at Ipswich. Sharnee Rose hasn't been far away in much stronger races but has to contend with a horror draw.
Love For Ransom is a one-time Thousand Guineas favourite and her first-up run was better than it looks on paper. She hardly saw daylight in the straight and yet still managed to come from last and run past five runners despite the fact that Michael Cahill had her in a sleeper hold.
Whateverwhenever won a 1400m Group 3 race in Melbourne on Caulfield Cup Day last October. She's probably going to get out to silly odds tomorrow ($51) and can be forgiven her last two runs because her first-up and second-up form is poor (8:1-1-1). Three runs or further into a prep her record is much better (21:7-3-4). Unbeaten in two starts at Ipswich. Sharnee Rose hasn't been far away in much stronger races but has to contend with a horror draw.
11 Peron
3 Classics
1 Whateverwhenever
3 Classics
1 Whateverwhenever
Other bets
Sessions (Rosehill Race 6 No. 9) won't be any flash price but should get the chocolates. He's put in a couple of nice trials in the lead-up to this and has won two from two fresh. Hopefully we can get $2.50.
Mr O'Ceiren (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) did enough first-up to suggest he can be right in this and although $4 was available early they've come for him and he's now into $3.30. Second-up form is sound (4:1-1-1) and boasts three wins and a second from four goes at the journey.
Mr O'Ceiren (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) did enough first-up to suggest he can be right in this and although $4 was available early they've come for him and he's now into $3.30. Second-up form is sound (4:1-1-1) and boasts three wins and a second from four goes at the journey.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
A stallion is yet to be confirmed for Black Caviar but connections say they have narrowed it down to a short list.
The mighty mare's owners won't comment as yet on who has made the list but will say they have whittled it down to half a dozen.
Brenton Avdulla, Chad Schofield & Dwayne Dunn have all earned the wrath of the stewards in the last seven days.
Dunn copped a 14 meeting ban on Monday at Mornington for careless riding but plans to appeal the severity of the sentence.
Avdulla earned a nine meeting holiday for careless riding during Howmuchdoyouloveme's win in the Lightning Handicap at Eagle Farm last Saturday whilst Chadfield will miss 10 meetings after he pleaded guilty to the same charge at Flemington last weekend.
Lastly on a sad note veteran English trainer Sir Henry Cecil has passed away aged 80 following a long battle with cancer.
A private funeral for family members only will be held at St Agnes Church at Newmarket on June 24.
The Queen's Vase, a race at Royal Ascot that Sir Henry won eight times, has been re-named in his honour.
The mighty mare's owners won't comment as yet on who has made the list but will say they have whittled it down to half a dozen.
Brenton Avdulla, Chad Schofield & Dwayne Dunn have all earned the wrath of the stewards in the last seven days.
Dunn copped a 14 meeting ban on Monday at Mornington for careless riding but plans to appeal the severity of the sentence.
Avdulla earned a nine meeting holiday for careless riding during Howmuchdoyouloveme's win in the Lightning Handicap at Eagle Farm last Saturday whilst Chadfield will miss 10 meetings after he pleaded guilty to the same charge at Flemington last weekend.
Lastly on a sad note veteran English trainer Sir Henry Cecil has passed away aged 80 following a long battle with cancer.
A private funeral for family members only will be held at St Agnes Church at Newmarket on June 24.
The Queen's Vase, a race at Royal Ascot that Sir Henry won eight times, has been re-named in his honour.
LOOKING BACK
Eagle Farm
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, open handicap)
To paraphrase what I wrote last week:
"I might sit on my hands here because I already have Buffering running at $13 (each way)"
"Buffering will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too."
* Your Song has been retired and will stand at Widden Stud for a service fee of $22,000
"I might sit on my hands here because I already have Buffering running at $13 (each way)"
"Buffering will probably get the lead uncontested tomorrow and will be in it for a long way. Will give you a great sight. Last 200m is the worry - he's never won beyond 1400m but he's only had two goes and one of those was this race last year where he was a gallant second after sitting four wide without cover the entire race. Streama has had a freshen-up after her solid fourth in the Doncaster and is three wins and a second from four tries at 1400m. Well weighted too."
* Your Song has been retired and will stand at Widden Stud for a service fee of $22,000
Locky's Selections
8 Your Song (14th)
1 Buffering (2nd) $4.00 place (fixed price, see above)
17 Better Than Ready (18th)
Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Hawkspur. 1st. $4.00 win / $1.80 place
It was like I had a crystal ball for this one:
"I see no reason not to follow Hawkspur here. He's won the two traditional lead-up races in the Rough Habit Plate and the Grand Prix Stakes and he's won them dominantly. He handles wet and dry tracks. Last preparation he took three runs to get fit then strung three wins on end. He's on a similar path this time in. Savaged the line at his last start and was going as well as anything at the end and gives every indication the 2400m will be no problem. Some will say he was flattered in his last two wins by cosy runs but in all likelihood he'll get the same again tomorrow. If the emergencies come out he'll start from barrier three whereas all his main opposition will start from out wide. A clear top selection for mine and at backable odds."
"I see no reason not to follow Hawkspur here. He's won the two traditional lead-up races in the Rough Habit Plate and the Grand Prix Stakes and he's won them dominantly. He handles wet and dry tracks. Last preparation he took three runs to get fit then strung three wins on end. He's on a similar path this time in. Savaged the line at his last start and was going as well as anything at the end and gives every indication the 2400m will be no problem. Some will say he was flattered in his last two wins by cosy runs but in all likelihood he'll get the same again tomorrow. If the emergencies come out he'll start from barrier three whereas all his main opposition will start from out wide. A clear top selection for mine and at backable odds."
Locky's Selections
18 Gondokoro (5th)
2 Honorius (3rd) $2.40 place
Any 2 1-2 $5.20
J.J.Atkins Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)
Romantic Touch got a mid-race breather and was able to kick in the straight. Zoustar was unlucky and could have made it interesting if he got out sooner. Paximadia didn't help his chances by overracing. Vilanova sat wide without cover but was still OK. Global Dream ran on from well back and could win a nice fillies race in Sydney in the Spring. Hooked was disappointing.
Locky's Selections
3 Vilanova (4th)
1 Zoustar (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Hooked (8th)
1 Zoustar (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Hooked (8th)
Brisbane Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)
Got the quinella here and just missed the trifecta and my radar wasn't far off in my summary too:
"If it rains during the day Quintessential will be the big market mover so watch the skies. She's shown a real liking for wet tracks in Queensland during the Winter Carnival with the Oaks, Chairmans Handicap and Eagle Farm Cup all on her CV. Jockey Damian Browne is flying too .
"If it rains during the day Quintessential will be the big market mover so watch the skies. She's shown a real liking for wet tracks in Queensland during the Winter Carnival with the Oaks, Chairmans Handicap and Eagle Farm Cup all on her CV. Jockey Damian Browne is flying too .
Moriarty is the one I had on top earlier in the week but the threat of rain and the terrible barrier draw have really dented my confidence. But he can be right in the finish if the track stays dry and he gets a good run in transit. Zennista wasn't far away in the Premiers Cup and meets Precedence two kilos better off."
Locky's Selections
4 Quintessential (2nd) $2.50 place
3 Moriarty (1st) $7.00 win / $2.70 place
6 Lightinthenite (4th)
Quinella 4-3 $15.70
Any 2 3-4 $5.10
6 Lightinthenite (4th)
Quinella 4-3 $15.70
Any 2 3-4 $5.10
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Transporter (Eagle Farm Race 2 No. 3) will appreciate the drop back in grade after he backed up a third to Lights Of Heaven and Foreteller in the Hollindale Stakes with a close second to Solzhenitsyn in the Lord Mayors Cup. Prior to that had back-to-back victories here in Brisbane over this journey including one six length demolition. Four wins and three seconds from eight attempts at the mile, and four wins and three placings from nine starts at Eagle Farm. Should be able to get $3.50. 3rd. $1.70 place.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance. DID NOT START.
Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30. 3rd. $1.40 place.
The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy. 12th.
Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available. 11th.
Transporter (Eagle Farm Race 2 No. 3) will appreciate the drop back in grade after he backed up a third to Lights Of Heaven and Foreteller in the Hollindale Stakes with a close second to Solzhenitsyn in the Lord Mayors Cup. Prior to that had back-to-back victories here in Brisbane over this journey including one six length demolition. Four wins and three seconds from eight attempts at the mile, and four wins and three placings from nine starts at Eagle Farm. Should be able to get $3.50. 3rd. $1.70 place.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 21) is third emergency but if she somehow manages to get a run I'm pretty keen to have a tickle each-way at the $12 mark. I've tipped her in this blog in her last two wins and I'm sticking solid because I think she is a Group horse in the making. Three wins from three starts at this distance. DID NOT START.
Chewychop (Randwick Race 3 No. 2) wasn't far away in the Inglis 3-Y-O at Scone three weeks ago and this is much easier. Prior to that was unbeaten. Barrier one allows him to get the gun run here. $3.30. 3rd. $1.40 place.
The run of Falzzon (Randwick Race 4 No. 2) last time out was enormous. Just failed to run down Oakfield Commands and meets him two kilos better off tomorrow. $7 looks juicy. 12th.
Coins (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) has been the subject of strong support early in betting and as I've said before in this blog I'm always wary when the "coins" come for one from the Darley yard. Likes to race handy so the inside draw is a big plus. Boasts a win at this course and distance and around $4 is available. 11th.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I call dibs on the window seat Buddy.
- Richie Valens, Mason City Airport (Iowa), 2 February 1959
- Richie Valens, Mason City Airport (Iowa), 2 February 1959
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