The first Australian G1 of 2016 and it's a nightmare to preview because we have a capacity field of 18 and 13 of them are G1 winners.
The G2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney is not too shabby either but thankfully it's a bit easier to dissect and we also have two G1's in N.Z. (featuring Volkstok'n'barrell and Xtravagant) plus Black Type racing in Perth and Brisbane.
The G2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney is not too shabby either but thankfully it's a bit easier to dissect and we also have two G1's in N.Z. (featuring Volkstok'n'barrell and Xtravagant) plus Black Type racing in Perth and Brisbane.
Who's Hot?
Since the start of the year South Australian Phillip Stokes has trained 11 winners from only 30 starters. Nine of those came at his Morphettville base.
He has two runners there tomorrow - Pomp (Race 2 No. 6) and Prince Albert (Race 5 No. 7) - plus three runners at Caulfield.
CAULFIELD
C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Lucky Hussler resumed a month ago with a massive weight and was still too good in the Magic Millions Cup at the Gold Coast. Second-up last April he wasn't far off the likes of Dissident and Chautauqua in a G1 All Aged Stakes and he was unlucky not to win the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes second run in last prep when he ran into a lot of trouble. He returned to Caulfield two weeks later to avenge that defeat (below) in the G1 Toorak Handicap.
Fawkner won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last September at his first run in 10 months so don't be surprised if he runs a race fresh. He's had five runs at Caulfield for two wins (a G1 Caulfield Cup and a G1 Caulfield Stakes) and two placings. I expect they will press forward from the wide barrier and find a nice position. His last 13 starts have been at G1 level and he has two wins and four placings and is always competitive.
Turn Me Loose is coming off a last start win (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes and he does look like he will get a pretty soft lead here with not a lot of speed in the contest. He won three in a row at the end of his last campaign with awesome displays of sustained speed and that's usually the sign of a pretty smart galloper. He's never won in three first-up appearances (twice placed) but he looked forward in his impressive trial win last week.
Bow Creek was second to Turn Me Loose on début in this country last October in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley and he was one of the few runners who made up ground from back in the field against the bias on the day. He pulled up lame following his only other start in the Spring in the G1 Emirates Stakes (above) so I'm putting a line through that run. He's had two trials in preparation and he should get a saloon passage from barrier two.
Boban is a five time G1 winner including his last two fresh appearances. The most recent was the G1 Memsie Stakes (below) at this track and distance where he took care of some of his rivals here. He has six wins and three placings from 14 starts at the distance. Given his racing pattern and bad barrier draw I just wonder if they will go fast enough in front for him to unleash his trademark finishing burst.
Stablemate Stratum Star won at this track and trip (below) when claiming the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last prep following an eye-catching quarter length third (above) to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes again at this course and distance. His only other run at the Caulfield 1400m yielded a win in a Listed race on Caulfield Cup Day yet he could start at around 20/1 here. Probably because his fresh record (4:0-1-1) is average.
Rebel Dane has the perfect form line for this because four of the last five winners came off a placing in the G2 Australia Stakes at their last start and three of them were beaten as favourite. His sole G1 victory came at this track and distance but that was 28 months ago and he's only won once in 16 subsequent runs. Mind you 12 of those runs were at G1 level and the other four at G2 and he has placed seven times. Drawn to get a good run.
Suavito has won at her last two first-up appearances and both were at this course and distance with the most recent being the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) this time last year. All up she's had five starts from the Caulfield 1400m chute for three wins and two placings and the inside barrier has to be a big plus. She hasn't raced since April last year after missing the Spring with injury but she looked good in two recent jumpouts.
Bow Creek was second to Turn Me Loose on début in this country last October in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley and he was one of the few runners who made up ground from back in the field against the bias on the day. He pulled up lame following his only other start in the Spring in the G1 Emirates Stakes (above) so I'm putting a line through that run. He's had two trials in preparation and he should get a saloon passage from barrier two.
Boban is a five time G1 winner including his last two fresh appearances. The most recent was the G1 Memsie Stakes (below) at this track and distance where he took care of some of his rivals here. He has six wins and three placings from 14 starts at the distance. Given his racing pattern and bad barrier draw I just wonder if they will go fast enough in front for him to unleash his trademark finishing burst.
Trust In A Gust did enough first-up to suggest he's in for a good campaign and his stats make compelling reading. Four wins and two placings from seven starts at Caulfield and of his three wins from five starts at the 1400m two of them were here with the highlight being a G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Barrier 15 makes it tough but after two injury interrupted campaigns he looks to be back on track.
Stablemate Stratum Star won at this track and trip (below) when claiming the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last prep following an eye-catching quarter length third (above) to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes again at this course and distance. His only other run at the Caulfield 1400m yielded a win in a Listed race on Caulfield Cup Day yet he could start at around 20/1 here. Probably because his fresh record (4:0-1-1) is average.
Suavito has won at her last two first-up appearances and both were at this course and distance with the most recent being the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) this time last year. All up she's had five starts from the Caulfield 1400m chute for three wins and two placings and the inside barrier has to be a big plus. She hasn't raced since April last year after missing the Spring with injury but she looked good in two recent jumpouts.
Of the others Entirely Platinum will race on-pace and he boasts a second to Dissident in this race last year and second to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes last preparation so he likes Caulfield. So does Mourinho and he's going to go around at huge odds. He ran third in this race last year and also won the G2 Lawrence Stakes last August at this track and trip. His second-up form isn't great but I liked his run last start when he charged home late in an on-pace dominated G2 Australia Stakes. I liked the run of Hucklebuck in that race too and his second-up record is outstanding. He's three from five at 1400m including a win here at Caulfield but the outside barrier makes it tough. (The whisper is he may not even start.) Rising Romance won a 1500m handicap in N.Z. first-up this time last year and was a one and a half length sixth to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes first-up last Spring. Nasty draw though. Messene is always thereabouts in these type of contests but he hasn't won for nearly two years. Mind you he is good fresh (7:3-2-0) and at the journey (7:3-1-1). Fenway is classy and she maps well here but I expect she'll need further. Happy Trails will need the run but he has to start somewhere.
I'm not interested in the other two.
I'm not interested in the other two.
Locky's Selections
BEST
7. Turn Me Loose
DANGER
17. Suavito
FOR EXOTICS
3. Boban
1. Fawkner
13. Bow Creek
12. Entirely Platinum
*** There are no early scratchings ***
OTHER BETS
Mossin' Around (Caulfield Race 2 No. 5) chased home the talented Hellbent last start in the Inglis Dash at Flemington and nothing else got near them. Trainer John Thompson doesn't venture south of of the border from his Randwick base very often but when he does they usually run well so I am wary. She's been in the first two at all of her three career runs and drops back to her own sex here.
Generalife (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) deserves a win. His last six outings have all been in Black Type races and he's finished within two lengths on each occasion chasing home the likes of Dissident, Boban, Srikandi, Terravista etc. This is much easier. His last win was first-up 11 months ago (below) when he won the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes over 1200m at Rosehill.
Mahuta (Caulfield Race 6 No. 1) just keeps improving and is unbeaten since they applied the blinkers. He led all the way under a big weight to win when resuming at the Gold Coast last start and they ran slick time. The Weir-Rawiller combination is one of the most successful in the country with 75 winners since the start of the season. Opened at $3.50 with some operators but don't go looking for it now because he's been backed into $2.90.
7. Turn Me Loose
DANGER
17. Suavito
FOR EXOTICS
3. Boban
1. Fawkner
13. Bow Creek
12. Entirely Platinum
RANDWICK
Apollo Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Winx is odds-on and rightly so. Her win here (below) first-up in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes last September had to be seen to be believed. Next start in the G1 Epsom Handicap she beat them like Dickensian orphans. After that she rounded off her campaign with victory in some w-f-a race in Moonee Ponds. That was the culmination of a five race winning sequence that also saw her bag a Guineas and an Oaks. Class act and the one to beat.
Solicit is the only possible danger. She'll be up near the lead in another race where I see no tempo. She's got a run under her belt whereas all bar one of her opponents are first-up so residual fitness is on her side. So is the good gate. She'll give a great sight for a long way but the question is can she withstand the blistering turn of foot that we know the favourite can display?
Everything else will likely start at double figure odds. Magic Hurricane won fresh at his first run in Australia back in June and although he's nominated for staying races later on in his campaign he could run a cheeky race here. Dibayani was a one length third to Mourinho and The Cleaner at his first run last Spring in the G2 Lawrence Stakes over 1400m and he did win a barrier trial here at Randwick a fortnight ago. Leebaz has won twice fresh before and cruised home in a Rosehill trial 11 days ago. The knock is after six wins and three seconds from his first 10 starts he has just one win and two placings in his last 13 appearances.
Everything else will likely start at double figure odds. Magic Hurricane won fresh at his first run in Australia back in June and although he's nominated for staying races later on in his campaign he could run a cheeky race here. Dibayani was a one length third to Mourinho and The Cleaner at his first run last Spring in the G2 Lawrence Stakes over 1400m and he did win a barrier trial here at Randwick a fortnight ago. Leebaz has won twice fresh before and cruised home in a Rosehill trial 11 days ago. The knock is after six wins and three seconds from his first 10 starts he has just one win and two placings in his last 13 appearances.
Locky's Selections
BEST
8. Winx
DANGER
10. Solicit
FOR EXOTICS
2. Magic Hurricane
4. Dibayani
6. Leebaz
8. Winx
DANGER
10. Solicit
FOR EXOTICS
2. Magic Hurricane
4. Dibayani
6. Leebaz
OTHER BETS
Generalife (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) deserves a win. His last six outings have all been in Black Type races and he's finished within two lengths on each occasion chasing home the likes of Dissident, Boban, Srikandi, Terravista etc. This is much easier. His last win was first-up 11 months ago (below) when he won the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes over 1200m at Rosehill.
Mahuta (Caulfield Race 6 No. 1) just keeps improving and is unbeaten since they applied the blinkers. He led all the way under a big weight to win when resuming at the Gold Coast last start and they ran slick time. The Weir-Rawiller combination is one of the most successful in the country with 75 winners since the start of the season. Opened at $3.50 with some operators but don't go looking for it now because he's been backed into $2.90.
Good punting!
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