G1 Chipping Norton Stakes Day - 27.02.2016

It's hard to know where to look this weekend with G1's in Melbourne, Sydney and N.Z. but I'm focusing on the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick.

I'm steering away from Melbourne because biased tracks, races that always run late (even with a proper 40 minute interval) and baffling protest decisions are not conducive to wagering with any sort of confidence whatsoever. 

And don't give me that look because if you weren't interested in my opinion you wouldn't be reading.

Who's Hot? 

It's been a good six days for the training partnership of David Hayes and Tom Dabernig with a winner at Ballarat last Sunday, a treble at Tatura on Monday, a winner at Bendigo on Tuesday and another on Wednesday at Sandown and one more today at Kilmore to wrap up the week.

They are well represented this weekend with runners at Moonee Valley tonight and at Caulfield, Randwick, Morphettville and Yarra Valley tomorrow.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a high chance of showers.***

Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I hate to sound like a contestant on Mastermind whose special subject is "Stating The Bloody Obvious" but Winx is the horse to beat. Second-up last Spring (below) she won the G1 Epsom Handicap at this track and distance in a canter. At the w-f-a scale she is going to get weight relief from all bar one of her rivals. Her effortless first-up win in the G2 Apollo Stakes last start showed she's adaptable so she shouldn't be troubled by the apparent absence of speed here. 

Hauraki followed Winx home in that race and was the best of the closers. It was nice to see him recapture some form after a disappointing Spring Carnival because he looked a horse of the future last Autumn. He's had six starts here at Headquarters for a win and three placings all of which were in Stakes races. This will probably be too short although he was second to Winx last March in a G2 Phar Lap Stakes over 1500m. The bad barrier doesn't help.

Dibayani chased home Winx last start too and he was third (below) behind The Cleaner second-up last prep in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. In his five starts in Australia he's been very competitive without winning and he's been placed in a G1 Hong Kong Derby (behind Designs On Rome) and a G1 Hong Kong Classic Mile (behind Able Friend) so he's clearly above average. The inside gate helps and the stable is in good touch too.

Hartnell was unlucky not to win this race last year when having his first start in this country but that was held at Warwick Farm and he has zero placings in two runs here at Randwick. Having said that he wasn't terrible here first-up last September when fourth to stablemate Complacent in a red hot G2 Chelmsford Stakes. He is the one who would really love some rain and he's also one of the few capable of taking up the running.

Mongolian Khan was solid if not spectacular first-up last September (below) when a one and a half length seventh to Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. He should be in the first half of the field from barrier four and in a race devoid of any real tempo it wouldn't surprise me to see him even take up the lead. He's won here at Randwick and he's won fresh before but I doubt he'll be primed for a first-up assault here but he is a top class animal.

Storm The Stars is an interesting runner. He's having his first start in Australia and whilst he'll probably find the mile way too short he has world class form with placings in a G1 Epsom Derby and a G1 Irish Derby behind the likes of European stars Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs. Chris Waller trained stayers don't usually fire fresh and he's done nothing in two trials but I'm wary so he'll be going in wider exotics.

There's a bunch stayers who are going to find this way too short but keep an eye on how they perform for the future.

Magic Hurricane will be better for his first-up run and he has two wins and a second from five starts here at Randwick but the horrible draw makes difficult. Preferment has been beaten a long way in both his last two fresh appearances before improving sharply when getting to a mile and a quarter. Gust Of Wind beat just one home fresh and will need a few more runs before she's ready to peak. She's on the G1 Sydney Cup trail so look for her further down the track in races at 2000m+. Who Shot Thebarman has run cheeky races at big odds at his last two second-up runs but both of those were at 2000m. Watch for him to be running on late. Grand Marshal won't even get warmed up until the final 100m.

Centre Pivot no way. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Winx

DANGER  

3. Hartnell

FOR EXOTICS

1. Mongolian Khan

8. Hauraki
7. Dibayani
10. Storm The Stars

OTHER BETS

Honesta (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) is well named because she was so consistent throughout the Spring. After winning twice in Brisbane she headed south and finished her campaign with four consecutive second placings and they all came in Black Type races - the G2 Tea Rose Stakes, the G1 Flight Stakes (below), the G3 Ethereal Stakes and G1 VRC Oaks. She has had a couple of trials to prepare for this and looked forward enough to win. Crazy odds.

Solicit (Randwick 6 No. 3) looks set to breakthrough here after chasing home a couple of handy types in Our Boy Malachi and Winx at her first two runs this prep. The last when they gapped third tells me that Randwick holds no fears for her and third run back last preparation she smacked them in the G3 Summoned Stakes by four and a half lengths. At the set weights plus penalties conditions she looks thrown in here.

Generalife (Randwick Race 8 No. 5) gets another chance. He was burned off his feet early first-up but his closing splits were outstanding. He's drawn to be a lot closer tomorrow and should get a lovely smother in the run. This is his pet distance too with four wins and four placings from eight starts. Second-up last April (below) he was just over a length off Dissident in the G1 All Aged Stakes at this track.

I'm not having any serious bets in Victoria until they get their house in order but for the record in the Melbourne features I think Hucklebuck (Caulfield Race 6 No. 4) is ready to win third-up in the G1 Futurity Stakes and will benefit from a better barrier this week. I'm tipping his stablemate Samara Dancer (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) will be too good for the colts in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes for a similar reason - she'll get the gun run. Lastly I can't go past my old mate Fell Swoop (Caulfield Race 8 No. 8) because he's been so good to me and just keeps winning so I'll be having a bit each-way in the G1 Oakleigh Plate.

Good punting!

G1 Lightning Stakes Day - 20.02.2016

The G1 Lightning Stakes in Melbourne may only have attracted seven runners but five of them are already winners at the highest level.

It highlights yet another great day for racing fans with three G2 contests in Sydney, another two G3's in Melbourne, two $100K races in Perth, the Listed Birthday Cup in Adelaide plus a couple of G2's from Ellerslie in N.Z.

T.V. remote control at the ready!

Who's Hot? 

In the last 12 days Bjorn Baker has had 19 runners for six winners and four placegetters.

He has two runners at Rosehill tomorrow - To Be Sure (Race 1 No. 5) and  Coolring (Race 9 No. 4).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny afternoon.***

Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Kinglike is an early scratching ***

Exosphere won as he liked (below) in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes last October and that was his fifth win from seven starts including a G1 Golden Rose.  I can overlook his next start failure in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington because he was in the wrong part of the track. Hoop James McDonald could have had some decent rides in Sydney but you couldn't get him off this bloke with a crowbar.

Chautauqua has had six starts at Flemington for three wins and three seconds. His fresh record is outstanding too with five starts for four wins and a second on debut. His one start at 1000m resulted in a comfortable one and a half length win in the G2 McEwen Stakes first-up last September. He's had six starts at G1 level for two wins, three seconds and a third. He is the proven horse and the one they have to beat.

Delectation beat an all-star field (below) including Chautauqua and Terravista when capturing the G1 Darley Classic here at his last start before a spell. His first-up record and his form at this track reads OK with a win and two placings from five starts and his three runs down the Flemington straight last Spring were all full of merit but only one winner in the last 12 years has paid more than $5.50.

Terravista has outstanding fresh form with six starts for five wins and a third in last year's G1 Newmarket Handicap. Two of those wins came at 1000m but it's his first go at the trip in two and a half years. On the plus side he's had three tries down the Flemington straight for a win and two thirds and all of those were in G1's. He wasn't far off Delectation and Chautauqua (above) in the G1 Darley Classic before he went for a spell.

Japonisme is first-up from his victory down the straight here (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day. He beat Exosphere on that occasion although he did have the advantage of that superior inside section of track. He's won five of his last seven going back to July last year and the three kilo pull in the weights is in his favour but no 3-y-o has won this race since Fastnet Rock in 2005.

There is only one other runner and he will start at huge odds and rightly so. Va Pensiero has four top two finishes from five first-up runs but he hasn't won since claiming the G3 Run To The Rose two and a half years ago. Granted he's only had eight runs in that time due to injury but he's managed just the two placings. No.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Chautauqua 

DANGER  

5. Exosphere

FOR EXOTICS

2. Terravista 
3. Delectation 

OTHER BETS

Palentino (Flemington Race 5 No. 2) deserves a bit of luck this week because he had none whatsoever last start in the G3 Manfred Stakes where he was climbing over horses all the way down the straight. He won like a good horse during Cup Week last year over this course and distance and stepping up to the 1400m is in his favour. He opened $3.80 but that was quickly snapped up and he'll start a warm favourite.

Catkins (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) revels in these G2 set weights plus penalties contests for the fillies and mares. Her fresh record speaks for itself with seven wins and a second from nine starts. The last time we saw her first-up (below) she won the G2 Sheraco Stakes (for the second year in a row) and she won this race fresh last year. She's a 16 time winner overall with nine of them coming here at Rosehill including two from two at 1300m.

Hasselhoof (Rosehill Race 8 No. 3) is getting one more chance. He disappointed last time out but the jockey reported he was a bit above himself and needed the run and as a result he's going to be a backable price here unlike the other day when he (thankfully) wasn't really a betting proposition. Stepping out to 2000m appeals because he is by Tavistock (sire of G1 VRC Derby winner Tarzino) out of a Zabeel mare so he should stay all day.

Good punting!

G1 Orr Stakes Day - 13.02.2016

The first Australian G1 of 2016 and it's a nightmare to preview because we have a capacity field of 18 and 13 of them are G1 winners.

The G2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney is not too shabby either but thankfully it's a bit easier to dissect and we also have two G1's in N.Z. (featuring Volkstok'n'barrell and Xtravagant) plus Black Type racing in Perth and Brisbane.

Who's Hot? 

Since the start of the year South Australian Phillip Stokes has trained 11 winners from only 30 starters. Nine of those came at his Morphettville base.

He has two runners there tomorrow - Pomp (Race 2 No. 6) and  Prince Albert (Race 5 No. 7) - plus three runners at Caulfield.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a sunny day.***

C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Lucky Hussler resumed a month ago with a massive weight and was still too good in the Magic Millions Cup at the Gold Coast. Second-up last April he wasn't far off the likes of Dissident and Chautauqua in a G1 All Aged Stakes and he was unlucky not to win the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes second run in last prep when he ran into a lot of trouble. He returned to Caulfield two weeks later to avenge that defeat (below) in the G1 Toorak Handicap.

Fawkner won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last September at his first run in 10 months so don't be surprised if he runs a race fresh. He's had five runs at Caulfield for two wins (a G1 Caulfield Cup and a G1 Caulfield Stakes) and two placings. I expect they will press forward from the wide barrier and find a nice position. His last 13 starts have been at G1 level and he has two wins and four placings and is always competitive.

Turn Me Loose is coming off a last start win (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes and he does look like he will get a pretty soft lead here with not a lot of speed in the contest. He won three in a row at the end of his last campaign with awesome displays of sustained speed and that's usually the sign of a pretty smart galloper. He's never won in three first-up appearances (twice placed) but he looked forward in his impressive trial win last week.

Bow Creek was second to Turn Me Loose on début in this country last October in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley and he was one of the few runners who made up ground from back in the field against the bias on the day. He pulled up lame following his only other start in the Spring in the G1 Emirates Stakes (above) so I'm putting a line through that run. He's had two trials in preparation and he should get a saloon passage from barrier two.

Boban is a five time G1 winner including his last two fresh appearances. The most recent was the G1 Memsie Stakes (below) at this track and distance where he took care of some of his rivals here. He has six wins and three placings from 14 starts at the distance. Given his racing pattern and bad barrier draw I just wonder if they will go fast enough in front for him to unleash his trademark finishing burst.

Trust In A Gust did enough first-up to suggest he's in for a good campaign and his stats make compelling reading. Four wins and two placings from seven starts at Caulfield and of his three wins from five starts at the 1400m two of them were here with the highlight being a G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Barrier 15 makes it tough but after two injury interrupted campaigns he looks to be back on track.

Stablemate Stratum Star won at this track and trip (below) when claiming the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last prep following an eye-catching quarter length third (above) to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes again at this course and distance. His only other run at the Caulfield 1400m yielded a win in a Listed race on Caulfield Cup Day yet he could start at around 20/1 here. Probably because his fresh record (4:0-1-1) is average.

Rebel Dane has the perfect form line for this because four of the last five winners came off a placing in the G2 Australia Stakes at their last start and three of them were beaten as favourite. His sole G1 victory came at this track and distance but that was 28 months ago and he's only won once in 16 subsequent runs. Mind you 12 of those runs were at G1 level and the other four at G2 and he has placed seven times. Drawn to get a good run.

Suavito has won at her last two first-up appearances and both were at this course and distance with the most recent being the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) this time last year. All up she's had five starts from the Caulfield 1400m chute for three wins and two placings and the inside barrier has to be a big plus. She hasn't raced since April last year after missing the Spring with injury but she looked good in two recent jumpouts.

Of the others Entirely Platinum will race on-pace and he boasts a second to Dissident in this race last year and second to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes last preparation so he likes Caulfield. So does Mourinho and he's going to go around at huge odds. He ran third in this race last year and also won the G2 Lawrence Stakes last August at this track and trip. His second-up form isn't great but I liked his run last start when he charged home late in an on-pace dominated G2 Australia Stakes. I liked the run of Hucklebuck in that race too and his second-up record is outstanding. He's three from five at 1400m including a win here at Caulfield but the outside barrier makes it tough. (The whisper is he may not even start.) Rising Romance won a 1500m handicap in N.Z. first-up this time last year and was a one and a half length sixth to Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes first-up last Spring. Nasty draw though. Messene is always thereabouts in these type of contests but he hasn't won for nearly two years. Mind you he is good fresh (7:3-2-0) and at the journey (7:3-1-1). Fenway is classy and she maps well here but I expect she'll need further. Happy Trails will need the run but he has to start somewhere.

I'm not interested in the other two.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Turn Me Loose

DANGER  

17. Suavito

FOR EXOTICS

3. Boban
1. Fawkner
13. Bow Creek
12. Entirely Platinum

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a sunny day.***

Apollo Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Winx is odds-on and rightly so. Her win here (below) first-up in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes last September had to be seen to be believed. Next start in the G1 Epsom Handicap she beat them like Dickensian orphans. After that she rounded off her campaign with victory in some w-f-a race in Moonee Ponds. That was the culmination of a five race winning sequence that also saw her bag a Guineas and an Oaks. Class act and the one to beat.

Solicit is the only possible danger. She'll be up near the lead in another race where I see no tempo. She's got a run under her belt whereas all bar one of her opponents are first-up so residual fitness is on her side. So is the good gate. She'll give a great sight for a long way but the question is can she withstand the blistering turn of foot that we know the favourite can display?


Everything else will likely start at double figure odds. Magic Hurricane won fresh at his first run in Australia back in June and although he's nominated for staying races later on in his campaign he could run a cheeky race here. Dibayani was a one length third to Mourinho and The Cleaner at his first run last Spring in the G2 Lawrence Stakes over 1400m and he did win a barrier trial here at Randwick a fortnight ago. Leebaz has won twice fresh before and cruised home in a Rosehill trial 11 days ago. The knock is after six wins and three seconds from his first 10 starts he has just one win and two placings in his last 13 appearances.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

8. Winx

DANGER  

10. Solicit

FOR EXOTICS

2. Magic Hurricane
4. Dibayani
6. Leebaz

OTHER BETS

Mossin' Around (Caulfield Race 2 No. 5) chased home the talented Hellbent last start in the Inglis Dash at Flemington and nothing else got near them. Trainer John Thompson doesn't venture south of of the border from his Randwick base very often but when he does they usually run well so I am wary. She's been in the first two at all of her three career runs and drops back to her own sex here.

Generalife (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) deserves a win. His last six outings have all been in Black Type races and he's finished within two lengths on each occasion chasing home the likes of Dissident, Boban, Srikandi, Terravista etc. This is much easier. His last win was first-up 11 months ago (below) when he won the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes over 1200m at Rosehill.

Mahuta (Caulfield Race 6 No. 1) just keeps improving and is unbeaten since they applied the blinkers. He led all the way under a big weight to win when resuming at the Gold Coast last start and they ran slick time. The Weir-Rawiller combination is one of the most successful in the country with 75 winners since the start of the season. Opened at $3.50 with some operators but don't go looking for it now because he's been backed into $2.90.

Good punting!

G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes Day - 06.02.2016

There's quite a bit of prizemoney flying about this weekend with $250K races for 2-y-o's in both Sydney and Melbourne plus some other Stakes races as well and the G2 Waikato Guineas from N.Z.

However I'm previewing the G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes for the 3-y-o's.

Who's Hot? 

Hard to believe that James McDonald went two weeks without a winner before last weekend's double at Rosehill but it was no fluke because he followed it up with a treble at Canterbury two days ago.

He has a full book at Randwick tomorrow.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower.***

Eskimo Prince Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Pride Of Dubai hasn't been seen since his win (below) in the G1 Sires Produce Stakes at Randwick 10 months ago. That was his second win at the highest level in four career outings following his victory in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at his previous start. He missed the Spring due to injury but he's had a couple of trials in readiness for this first-up tilt. 60.5kg isn't that bad when you consider they all have to lump at least 56kg.

Wolf Cry broke his maiden last start on Magic Millions Day and his previous four starts were pretty good too with 2-y-o form around the likes of Vancouver and Exosphere. Top hoop Blake Shinn stays solid and he's lethal when he combines with Team Snowden. He's a hard one to get a line through because he's coming via a maiden but they've nominated him for the G1 Australian Guineas next month so he's obviously shown them something.

Counterattack ran third (below) at his last start before a spell in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington on VRC Derby Day. He resumes here after a 14 week spell but he has performed well fresh in the past including a win at the start of his last campaign in the Listed Heritage Stakes where he came from second last to win by a length and a half. He has two wins and two seconds in five runs here and he should get a lovely trail from barrier two.

Spill The Beans split two handy types in Counterattack and Hellbent in the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes last October before being placed in a 1000m race at Flemington on Cup Day. He's been tuned up for this with an easy barrier trial win last Friday and is also nominated for a BM78 at Warwick Farm next Wednesday but trainer Gerald Ryan has opted for the tougher option.

Cannyescent was backed off the map when he won first-up against older horses. He is sure to be better for the outing given he was badly held up and the step to 1200m is a plus. He was also luckless in two starts at Stakes level last Spring but still managed to finish on the heels of the placegetters in both the G3 Up & Coming Stakes and the G3 Ming Dynasty Quality. The outside barrier is a problem but at least it should keep him out of traffic.

Tarquin has only had five race starts but has already raced at G1 level twice for a fifth behind Pride Of Dubai in the G1 Sires Produce and a third (below) in a G1 Champagne Stakes. His narrow last start second to Torgersen was good given he went straight to 1400m with a big weight following an eight month spell and was only just nutted. The good gate is a big plus but he's friendless in early betting.

As just mentioned Torgersen beat Tarquin last start and Chris Waller thinks he is a G1 horse and is looking at races like the G1 Randwick Guineas and the G1 Australian Guineas. His first two starts as a 2-y-o were on affected ground and he failed but his last two starts on a wet track (as a 3-y-o) have yielded a win and a second. He's drawn to get a nice run and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ran into the First Four at massive odds.

Zoutenant was the first horse home behind Exosphere (below) in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes relegating a future G1 winner in Japonisme to third. That was the last time we saw him at the races so it's four months since his last run and he's not a noted fresh performer. He has however been the subject of some support at long odds ($26 into $17) so a bold showing wouldn't shock.

Voilier thrashed Zoutenant on debut and has finished second in a G2 Silver Slipper, a Listed Rosebud, a G2 Up & Coming Stakes and a Listed Carrington Stakes. He's the only horse with more than one run under his belt this time in so he has race fitness on his side and he has taken on older horses at his three starts this time in and has been very competitive. Back to his own age group here. 

Shards won the G3 Up & Coming Stakes fresh last prep before finishing second (below) to subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Press Statement in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes two starts later. Four weeks after that he split Jameka and Tarzino in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day. That is top notch form because they went on to win the G1 VRC Oaks and G1 VRC Derby respectively at their next runs. Wide draw no help.

Le Romain has two wins and a second to the exciting Hellbent from his last three starts and he's been the subject of early support in the betting ring. He ran the fastest final 600m of the day (33.86) when winning at Randwick last start on a Heavy 8. The prospect of a wet track is therefore no problem and trainer Kris Lees has said he thinks he'll be better over more ground so going to 1200m is no concern either.

A competitive field and a very tough race.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Counterattack

DANGER  

1. Pride Of Dubai

FOR EXOTICS

11. Cannyescent
2. Tarquin
5. Torgersen
4. Shards

OTHER BETS

Allergic (Randwick Race 1 No. 6) smacked them like a redheaded stepchild last weekend and I see no reason why he can't win again here on the seven day back-up. These Sydney stayers seem to around every fortnight and raffle the winner's prize. Third (below) behind Delicacy and Werther in a G1 SA Derby. Fourth placed Magicool would go on to tackle the G1 Queensland Derby at his next start and cobalt in.

Signoff (Caulfield Race 2 No. 1) was off the scene for eight months with a tendon injury but he wasted no time returning to the winner's circle with a barnstorming first-up win in the Listed Lord Stakes on Boxing Day. He has to lump a big weight here but he's earned it because the last time he got out to this trip (below) he won the G3 Lexus Stakes on VRC Derby Day. He followed that four days later with a fourth in the G1 Melbourne Cup. Classy.

Hasselhoof (Randwick Race 6 No. 4) is a Kiwi horse I have been following with interest for some time and I'm glad he's finally made it to our shores. He's unbeaten in six starts and his three wins at the mile have been by a combined margin of almost 15 lengths. Wily trainer Donna Logan doesn't bring many across the ditch but when she does they usually measure up - think Rising Romance and Volkstok'n'barrell.

The Hoff

Golden Spin (Caulfield Race 8 No. 7) is unbeaten in three runs at 1200m. Two of those were at Caulfield. Granted the wide barrier is an obstacle but in a race with few who will press forward I can see him getting into a nice position handy to the lead. He's rock hard fit whereas many of his rivals are first-up and have bigger targets in mind. He opened at $6 with some operators but you won't get anywhere near that now.

Good punting!