Thankfully I wasn't singing for my supper last weekend with Puccini ($7) winning the G1 Thorndon Mile (below) at Trentham. My best roughie Mourinho ($31/$4.50) also managed to kick a goal in the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley while my other two selections in Role Model ($2.90) and Arena Rock ($1.50) just missed with narrow seconds.
We're a bit lighter on this weekend in terms of quality but we do have the G2 Expressway Stakes at Rosehill. It's supported by a couple of good juvenile races which see the reappearance of two unbeaten Waterhouse youngsters currently in commission in G1 Golden Slipper betting in Giulietta and Vancouver. Throw in the two brothers of Golden Slipper winners in Outreach (Overreach) and Mawahibb (Mossfun) plus the all conquering Godolphin stable (Chamarel and Igraine) and they shape as fascinating contests.
It's been a wet week in Sydney - they have copped more than 100mm in the last seven days including 80mm Tuesday/Wednesday - but the last two days have been relatively dry and sunny and the track is on the improve.
We're a bit lighter on this weekend in terms of quality but we do have the G2 Expressway Stakes at Rosehill. It's supported by a couple of good juvenile races which see the reappearance of two unbeaten Waterhouse youngsters currently in commission in G1 Golden Slipper betting in Giulietta and Vancouver. Throw in the two brothers of Golden Slipper winners in Outreach (Overreach) and Mawahibb (Mossfun) plus the all conquering Godolphin stable (Chamarel and Igraine) and they shape as fascinating contests.
It's been a wet week in Sydney - they have copped more than 100mm in the last seven days including 80mm Tuesday/Wednesday - but the last two days have been relatively dry and sunny and the track is on the improve.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Team Hawkes has had 12 runners in the last nine days for five winners and two placegetters at a strike rate of 41.7% Win / 58.3% Place.
They saddle up a few chances tomorrow at Rosehill tomorrow in Mawahibb (Race 1 No. 4), Lake Geneva (Race 4 No. 10), Eyre (Race 5 No. 6), Lorna May (Race 8 No. 13) plus another at Flemington in Laohu (Race 9 No. 12).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Expressway Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Boban: The honour roll for this race over the last 20 years is quite impressive. G1 winners Appearance, Rangirangdoo, Mentality, Lonhro, Tie The Knot, Mr Innocent, Saintly and Soho Square to name just a few. Surprising given most of those did their best racing at 1600m and beyond. Historically it has suited horses who are first-up.
"The Speed Map" says - I expect that only That's A Good Idea and Panzer Division will go forward. The rest I think will go back unless they are ridden against their normal pattern, and they just might be given that it is the only way they can be competitive.
Panzer Division rolled over the top of his rivals to score easily on debut before being just outgunned by his talented stablemate Scissor Kick second-up. He then led all the way on a Heavy 9 to win the G3 Ming Dynasty Quality beating subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win. His next two runs were OK beaten two and a half lengths against open company in the G1 George Main and he just didn't see out the 2000m of the G1 Spring Champion. He's in well at the w-f-a and although drawn wide he should cross comfortably given the lack of speed. The one to beat.
Weary looked like a tired horse last Spring but if he can recapture his Autumn form he looks the best of Chris Waller's five runners. He's had two fresh runs since coming to Australia and he was beaten just over a length on both occasions. His wet form reads well too with a win in the G3 Doncaster Prelude, a second in the G1 All Aged Stakes and a third in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below).
Boban impressed first-up this time last year when a fast finishing fifth behind Appearance in this very race. He didn't have a lot of luck that day and probably should have finished closer and he did come out two starts later and claim the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) beating It's A Dundeel. That was his third G1 victory (all at the mile) but it's also the last time he won and his wet track form is poor (7:1-0-0).
"The Speed Map" says - I expect that only That's A Good Idea and Panzer Division will go forward. The rest I think will go back unless they are ridden against their normal pattern, and they just might be given that it is the only way they can be competitive.
Panzer Division rolled over the top of his rivals to score easily on debut before being just outgunned by his talented stablemate Scissor Kick second-up. He then led all the way on a Heavy 9 to win the G3 Ming Dynasty Quality beating subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win. His next two runs were OK beaten two and a half lengths against open company in the G1 George Main and he just didn't see out the 2000m of the G1 Spring Champion. He's in well at the w-f-a and although drawn wide he should cross comfortably given the lack of speed. The one to beat.
Weary looked like a tired horse last Spring but if he can recapture his Autumn form he looks the best of Chris Waller's five runners. He's had two fresh runs since coming to Australia and he was beaten just over a length on both occasions. His wet form reads well too with a win in the G3 Doncaster Prelude, a second in the G1 All Aged Stakes and a third in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below).
That's A Good Idea has been racing consistently in much weaker grade but he does have race fitness on his side. The concern is his best run on a wet surface was a one length third in an 1100m Warwick Farm BM 95. I don't think he's suited at w-f-a either because in a handicap he would be getting about 5kg weight relief from most of his rivals. He's had three runs here at the Rosehill 1200m and does boast a win (in a BM 95 beating Heart Testa) but his other two goes he was beaten out of sight (11th of 11 beaten 10 lengths in a Maiden and 9th of 10 beaten 7 lengths).
Boban impressed first-up this time last year when a fast finishing fifth behind Appearance in this very race. He didn't have a lot of luck that day and probably should have finished closer and he did come out two starts later and claim the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) beating It's A Dundeel. That was his third G1 victory (all at the mile) but it's also the last time he won and his wet track form is poor (7:1-0-0).
Driefontein is another who will not like the fact that the track is rain affected. She has just a solitary second from seven attempts on wet tracks and that came in a Listed 2-y-o fillies race almost three years ago. Despite being trained in Sydney it's been 16 months since she won a race here. I'm looking elsewhere.
The rest are double figures but if you're hunting for roughies to throw into your exotics Malavio can run a race fresh and his form on affected surfaces is sound. Hawkspur is a quality horse and handles the wet and although this may be too short for him he could lob into a place.
Locky's Selections
11 Panzer Division
1 Boban
4 Weary
6 Malavio
1 Boban
4 Weary
6 Malavio
Other bets
Better Land (Flemington Race 3 No. 9) is drawn to get a good run here after a couple of luckless runs last campaign. He romped in on debut last April and was sent straight to the spelling paddock. He resumed with a second to Scissor Kick in the Listed Rosebud when trapped deep most of the way and then probably should have won the G3 Up and Coming Stakes when he was carted of the track by the wayward Liberation. He can atone here. Opened $2.90.
Sarajevo (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who was competitive without winning in the good Sydney 3-y-o races last Spring. He's had two trials in readiness for this and won both so he is obviously well forward in his preparation. Go on his devastating last-to-first debut win and he is in this up to his ears. Jockey James McDonald is in good touch too with four winners last Saturday at Randwick and another at Ellerslie (NZ) the following day. Opened $3.20.
L'entrecote (Doomben Race 9 No. 7) gets in nicely with the claim for the apprentice jockey and after three runs this time in he looks ready to score. His only two previous runs fourth-up have resulted in a win and a second. His last two attempts at the 1600m have produced a three length win and a fighting second when he attempted to lead all the way on a Heavy 10. Opened $9.00.
Sarajevo (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who was competitive without winning in the good Sydney 3-y-o races last Spring. He's had two trials in readiness for this and won both so he is obviously well forward in his preparation. Go on his devastating last-to-first debut win and he is in this up to his ears. Jockey James McDonald is in good touch too with four winners last Saturday at Randwick and another at Ellerslie (NZ) the following day. Opened $3.20.
L'entrecote (Doomben Race 9 No. 7) gets in nicely with the claim for the apprentice jockey and after three runs this time in he looks ready to score. His only two previous runs fourth-up have resulted in a win and a second. His last two attempts at the 1600m have produced a three length win and a fighting second when he attempted to lead all the way on a Heavy 10. Opened $9.00.
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