Went like a busted last week but hopefully the hit-out has helped and I'll strip fitter for the run.
Beware second-up syndrome however.
Beware second-up syndrome however.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Mick Kent is in good touch with nine winners from 26 runners in the last three weeks strectching from Moonee Valley to the Yarra Valley, Flemington to Mornington, Werribee to Sale and even Yea. I don't even know where Yea is.
Tomorrow at Caulfield he has Scratchy Bottom (Race 1 No. 4) and Epingle (Race 8 No. 5). He also has runners at Kyneton.
Manfred Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Tough race - a field of eight and seven are resuming. So how does the first-up form look?
Fast 'n' Rocking was narrowly beaten by Safeguard when fresh in the G3 Vain Stakes last prep and he was unlucky. Previous two first-up runs were average however. The Quarterback was unlucky on debut then was turned out and did win his second, first-up run but that was at Bairnsdale. Bull Point (Randwick) and Worth A Ransom (Echuca) won on debut. So too did Prince Harada (Ballarat) and his second fresh run resulted in an unlucky, narrow second to Fast 'n' Rocking in the G3 McNeil Stakes last August. Monkstone finished second on debut to the talented Lord of the Sky who will start a short priced favourite against the older horses later in the day in the Adams Stakes.
Hard Stride is the only runner second-up and he did win fresh. The second horse has subsequently won by a big space and was just a tick outside the track record, albeit at Stony Creek.
Also worth noting is that Damien Oliver has jumped off Prince Harada (the likely favourite) to ride Bull Point. Do we read anything into that? Bull Point did give Prince Harada and Fast 'n' Rocking windburn when he blew past them in the G1 Golden Rose last September. Ollie has had just nine rides for Gai Waterhouse since returning from his ban and has notched five winners (55.6%) including Divine Calling (Stutt Stakes), Fiorente (Melbourne Cup) and The Offer (Ballarat Cup).
Of the five under double figure odds Prince Harada, Bull Point and Monkstone get 1.5kg from Fast 'n' Rocking and The Quarterback. Barriers shouldn't be a concern with a small field and a 600m run to the first bend.
I think Zoustar is the best 3-y-o in the country and with that in mind I think the Golden Rose form will stack up so I'm putting Bull Point on top of Prince Harada. Monkstone the next best ahead of Hard Stride who has a bit of fitness on his side.
Side note - the Super Bowl is on Monday morning (our time) and there is a horse here called The Quarterback. His jockey is M. Allen.
Tomorrow at Caulfield he has Scratchy Bottom (Race 1 No. 4) and Epingle (Race 8 No. 5). He also has runners at Kyneton.
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Tough race - a field of eight and seven are resuming. So how does the first-up form look?
Fast 'n' Rocking was narrowly beaten by Safeguard when fresh in the G3 Vain Stakes last prep and he was unlucky. Previous two first-up runs were average however. The Quarterback was unlucky on debut then was turned out and did win his second, first-up run but that was at Bairnsdale. Bull Point (Randwick) and Worth A Ransom (Echuca) won on debut. So too did Prince Harada (Ballarat) and his second fresh run resulted in an unlucky, narrow second to Fast 'n' Rocking in the G3 McNeil Stakes last August. Monkstone finished second on debut to the talented Lord of the Sky who will start a short priced favourite against the older horses later in the day in the Adams Stakes.
Hard Stride is the only runner second-up and he did win fresh. The second horse has subsequently won by a big space and was just a tick outside the track record, albeit at Stony Creek.
Also worth noting is that Damien Oliver has jumped off Prince Harada (the likely favourite) to ride Bull Point. Do we read anything into that? Bull Point did give Prince Harada and Fast 'n' Rocking windburn when he blew past them in the G1 Golden Rose last September. Ollie has had just nine rides for Gai Waterhouse since returning from his ban and has notched five winners (55.6%) including Divine Calling (Stutt Stakes), Fiorente (Melbourne Cup) and The Offer (Ballarat Cup).
Of the five under double figure odds Prince Harada, Bull Point and Monkstone get 1.5kg from Fast 'n' Rocking and The Quarterback. Barriers shouldn't be a concern with a small field and a 600m run to the first bend.
I think Zoustar is the best 3-y-o in the country and with that in mind I think the Golden Rose form will stack up so I'm putting Bull Point on top of Prince Harada. Monkstone the next best ahead of Hard Stride who has a bit of fitness on his side.
Side note - the Super Bowl is on Monday morning (our time) and there is a horse here called The Quarterback. His jockey is M. Allen.
Locky's Selections
4 Bull Point
5 Prince Harada
6 Monkstone
7 Hard Stride
5 Prince Harada
6 Monkstone
7 Hard Stride
Other bets
Teronado (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is a horse I've been following as longtime followers of this blog will know. He'll have to give weight to all his opposition and they do have race fitness on their side whereas he is first-up but I think this guy has a touch of class. Being aimed at the Australian Guineas at Flemington in March. Scratched from Brisbane for this. $7.50.
Jarklin (Caulfield Race 4 No. 2) placed behind Blue Diamond Preview (F&M) winner Eloping on debut then won at his second start. Followed that with a second to spruik horse Nostradamus. Worth a nibble each-way at $26.
Ecuador (Rosehill Race 6 No. 8) is a lightly raced four-year-old who looks a good horse in the making. Nine career starts for three wins, five seconds and a sixth beaten a length in an Epsom when he was at the end of his campaign and had probably had enough. Like the fact that he goes straight to the 1400m first-up and that he's had a couple of solid jumpouts in the lead up to this race. $2.20.
African Pulse (Caulfield Race 7 No. 5) is five from five first-up and has five wins and a second from six attempts at 1000m including two out of two here at The Heath. Has to give weight to a good young horse on the way up but it's worth the gamble at around $4.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Since the start of the year Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra have produced 10 winners from 36 starters including doubles at Caulfield, Flemington and Werribee.
Tonight they have Miss Maggiebeel entered at Moonee Valley (Race 7 No. 10) 8th and they have just the one runner again tomorrow at Caulfield in Whistle Baby (Race 5 No. 5) 2nd $2.20 place.
Tonight they have Miss Maggiebeel entered at Moonee Valley (Race 7 No. 10) 8th and they have just the one runner again tomorrow at Caulfield in Whistle Baby (Race 5 No. 5) 2nd $2.20 place.
Caulfield
Blue Diamond Preview - Fillies (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)
Winner looked good, the rest only so-so.
Locky's Selections
4 Avanti (6th)
5 Eloping (1st) $3.20 win / $1.40 place
1 Golconda (8th)
7 London Lolly (4th)
5 Eloping (1st) $3.20 win / $1.40 place
1 Golconda (8th)
7 London Lolly (4th)
Blue Diamond Preview - Colts & Geldings (Listed, 1000m, set weights plus penalties)
Top three were all good.
Locky's Selections
2 Mohave (1st) $4.10 win / $1.70 place
1 Cornrow (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Tudor (5th)
3 Ducal Castle (3rd) $2.20 place
Trifecta 2-1-3 $47.10
Exacta 2-1 $12.70
Quinella 1-2 $6.00
Any 2 1-2 $3.10
Any 2 1-3 $5.10
Any 2 2-3 $3.20
1 Cornrow (2nd) $1.50 place
5 Tudor (5th)
3 Ducal Castle (3rd) $2.20 place
Trifecta 2-1-3 $47.10
Exacta 2-1 $12.70
Quinella 1-2 $6.00
Any 2 1-2 $3.10
Any 2 1-3 $5.10
Any 2 2-3 $3.20
Other bets
Spending (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) was slowly away last start and badly held up for most of the straight but still managed to finish second beaten about a quarter of a length. Looks well placed here in a similar race. 5th. Bombed the start. Game over from there.
I will be accused of sentimentality here because I'm a Seahawks fan and they've made it to the Super Bowl but I can't get past the last start run of Streets of Seattle (Caulfield Race 7 No. 3). Over an unsuitable distance second-up in a much stronger race she came from near last to snatch third at any old price. I think she is great each-way value at around $18 and I expect to see her closer to the lead tomorrow from the good draw. Not badly in with the three kilo claim. 9th. I hope the Seahawks go better under pressure than she did.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
How the hell did you work that out?
Pythagoras, Magna Graecia, circa 530 B.C.
Pythagoras, Magna Graecia, circa 530 B.C.
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