What I learned from last week is that if you predict that the track is going to be leader biased then your selections should reflect this.
I am an idiot.
It also looks like this older brigade aren't much good. It may pay to follow the four-year-olds from hereon in.
I am an idiot.
It also looks like this older brigade aren't much good. It may pay to follow the four-year-olds from hereon in.
THE SULTANS OF SPRING
It's Week Eight and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.
As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.
I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)
I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)
Rising Fast
Rising Fast went within half a length of being one of the best remembered names of the Spring for all time.
In 1954 he would start nine times in Melbourne in seven weeks for eight wins and a second.
It started on this day with victory in the Feehan (now Dato' Tan Chin Nam) Stakes before he suffered his only defeat of the Carnival when second in the Underwood Stakes. He would win his next seven in a row - including six successive victories in races that are now Group 1's.
He claimed the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Stakes, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes and the Melbourne Cup. He carried 59.5kg in the Melbourne Cup, a feat no winner has matched or bettered in the subsequent 60 years.
He must have been a bit on the fresh side after the Cup because they backed him up four days later to win the C.B. Fisher Plate (think the modern day Queen Elizabeth Stakes).
As if that wasn't enough, he would return the following year and notch successive seconds in the Underwood, Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes before lumping 61.5kg to capture his second Caulfield Cup just a fortnight before grabbing his second Mackinnon Stakes.
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His half-length second in the Melbourne Cup was shrouded in controversy. Eventual winner Toparoa caused interference in the straight that was deemed so severe that rider Neville Sellwood was outed for two months. Yet Rising Fast’s owner Leicester Spring would not lodge a protest despite the small margin and massive weight difference. (Rising Fast carried 63.5kg whilst Toparoa had the featherweight of 48kg.)
He obviously came through the run well though, bcause he returned on the Saturday to win back-to-back CB Fisher Plates!
Hard to believe a bloke who went so close to being the only horse ever to win the Cups Double twice is now largely forgotten!
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn has had 10 winners in the last 17 days from just 21 starters at a win strike rate of 47.6%. His best hope tomorrow appears to be Epic Terra (Doomben Race 4 No. 7).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for morning rain tomorrow, possibly heavy at times, tending to showers in the afternoon. ***
Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
The barrier draw hasn't been kind to a few horses who would have liked to sit on or near the speed - namely Zoustar, Aussies Love Sport, Into The Red, Dissident and Bull Point.
The horses drawn to get the best runs in transit are Prince Harada, Eurozone, Sidestep, Pitcrew and Fast 'n' Rocking.
The market seems to indicate that many believe the Victorian boys have this at their mercy but I'm not convinced. Fast 'n' Rocking has obviously improved but he was safely held when he raced in Sydney during the Autumn. The Vics were comfortably beaten by Charlie Boy in the Danehill last weekend and he was only moderately performed during the Autumn although he did have big wraps that he never quite lived up to.
There's a few here who have had hard luck stories in recent starts (Sidestep, Zoustar, Dissident, Windjammer, Prince Harada, Into The Red, Cluster) so again it's hard to get a line through them.
So in the end I've stuck with the horses I've been following all along.
Locky's Selections
The horses drawn to get the best runs in transit are Prince Harada, Eurozone, Sidestep, Pitcrew and Fast 'n' Rocking.
The market seems to indicate that many believe the Victorian boys have this at their mercy but I'm not convinced. Fast 'n' Rocking has obviously improved but he was safely held when he raced in Sydney during the Autumn. The Vics were comfortably beaten by Charlie Boy in the Danehill last weekend and he was only moderately performed during the Autumn although he did have big wraps that he never quite lived up to.
There's a few here who have had hard luck stories in recent starts (Sidestep, Zoustar, Dissident, Windjammer, Prince Harada, Into The Red, Cluster) so again it's hard to get a line through them.
So in the end I've stuck with the horses I've been following all along.
Locky's Selections
16 Cluster
10 Drago
2 Fast 'n' Rocking
4 Zoustar
10 Drago
2 Fast 'n' Rocking
4 Zoustar
Theo Marks Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, quality handicap)
Rain Affair could win but his record at 1400m and the likelihood of a firm track make me wary of stepping into a short price. The Warwick Stakes has proved to be a strong form race though.
Last prep Solzhenitsyn ran third beaten two and a quarter lengths behind Pierro and More Joyous when first-up in the G1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m). He beat Rain Affair home on that occasion at level weights.
Boban is up in class but drops four kilos from his dominant first-up win. He's in a good stable and the four-year-olds look to have the edge on their older rivals at the moment. Gets a massive pull in the weights from the top two but that is offset somewhat by the horror draw.
Alma's Fury wasn't terrible last week in the Tramway finishing alongside the likes of Sacred Falls, Sizzling and Fawkner.
Locky's Selections
Last prep Solzhenitsyn ran third beaten two and a quarter lengths behind Pierro and More Joyous when first-up in the G1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m). He beat Rain Affair home on that occasion at level weights.
Boban is up in class but drops four kilos from his dominant first-up win. He's in a good stable and the four-year-olds look to have the edge on their older rivals at the moment. Gets a massive pull in the weights from the top two but that is offset somewhat by the horror draw.
Alma's Fury wasn't terrible last week in the Tramway finishing alongside the likes of Sacred Falls, Sizzling and Fawkner.
Locky's Selections
2 Solzhenitsyn
12 Boban
1 Rain Affair
3 Alma's Fury
12 Boban
1 Rain Affair
3 Alma's Fury
Moonee Valley
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day tomorrow with scattered showers. ***
Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)
Current market
Super Cool (below) was one of the best runs outside the winner in the Memsie. He's a Moonee Valley winner and won second-up last prep after a similar flashing fresh performance. It would appear the stable have taken the good mare to the easier race to allow him his chance here. Trainer and jockey are flying. Another one of last season's good three-year-olds.
Happy Trails won this race last year and was another slashing run in the Memsie. Ollie has been out of the saddle for a while and will be keen to get back in the winner's circle.
Blinkers go on Fiorente so expect him to be handy (if he jumps with them) but I just wonder if MV is the track for him. As I've stated in previous posts I think he's better on a big circuit. He didn't appear to like racing inside horses last start so barrier two may not be ideal either.
Bass Strait the roughie for my first four. Another one of last season's three-year-olds who resumed with an eye-catching second where he came from last at the 400m to be beaten narrowly in a race where the winner Don't Get Excited sprinted home the final 600m in 33.34 seconds. That horse has subsequently won to make it four on the trot for him so it is a good form reference.
Locky's Selections
Super Cool (below) was one of the best runs outside the winner in the Memsie. He's a Moonee Valley winner and won second-up last prep after a similar flashing fresh performance. It would appear the stable have taken the good mare to the easier race to allow him his chance here. Trainer and jockey are flying. Another one of last season's good three-year-olds.
Happy Trails won this race last year and was another slashing run in the Memsie. Ollie has been out of the saddle for a while and will be keen to get back in the winner's circle.
Blinkers go on Fiorente so expect him to be handy (if he jumps with them) but I just wonder if MV is the track for him. As I've stated in previous posts I think he's better on a big circuit. He didn't appear to like racing inside horses last start so barrier two may not be ideal either.
Bass Strait the roughie for my first four. Another one of last season's three-year-olds who resumed with an eye-catching second where he came from last at the 400m to be beaten narrowly in a race where the winner Don't Get Excited sprinted home the final 600m in 33.34 seconds. That horse has subsequently won to make it four on the trot for him so it is a good form reference.
Locky's Selections
8 Super Cool
3 Fiorente
2 Happy Trails
10 Bass Strait
3 Fiorente
2 Happy Trails
10 Bass Strait
W H Stocks Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, 4-y-o & up mares w-f-a)
I'm not keen to have a bet but Atlantic Jewel picks herself here.
If you want some value for your quinellas and trifectas I don't see how Bonne Nuit comes up $101 here. Drops back to her own sex after two runs against the boys. Prior to that won two in a row in fillies and mares grade including one here at the Valley over this trip.
Bec Said No Credit has won three on end and I love following mares in form. Get's a tick for being a four-year-old, as does Ava's Delight. Has form at the track and the distance and is rock hard fit.
Locky's Selections
If you want some value for your quinellas and trifectas I don't see how Bonne Nuit comes up $101 here. Drops back to her own sex after two runs against the boys. Prior to that won two in a row in fillies and mares grade including one here at the Valley over this trip.
Bec Said No Credit has won three on end and I love following mares in form. Get's a tick for being a four-year-old, as does Ava's Delight. Has form at the track and the distance and is rock hard fit.
Locky's Selections
1 Atlantic Jewel
5 Bonne Nuit
7 Bec Said No Credit
6 Ava's Delight
5 Bonne Nuit
7 Bec Said No Credit
6 Ava's Delight
Other bets
Pelicano (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) each-way in a wide open race. First two runs this prep have been super and he's now stepping up to 2000m where he is unbeaten in three attempts. Won the Parramatta Cup here over this distance back in March. $9.
Peron (Rosehill Race 6 No. 12) won her trial by a big space and is unbeaten in three attempts fresh. A winner of six from eight including two from two at the 1200m. Rain the only concern as her only failures have been on affected going. $6.50.
Peron (Rosehill Race 6 No. 12) won her trial by a big space and is unbeaten in three attempts fresh. A winner of six from eight including two from two at the 1200m. Rain the only concern as her only failures have been on affected going. $6.50.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
No suspensions out of last weekend for a change but hoop Nicholas Hall is lighter in the pocket after stipes slugged him $1000 for dropping his hands on winner Bound For Earth in the Furious Stakes.
Hall admitted to misjudging where the finishing post was saying the final 100m of the running rail in NSW is painted differently than those in Victoria.
Meantime Jacob Rule has been suspended for six weeks following an incident which saw fellow rider Jake Noonan dislodged from his mount after the winning post at Stawell ten days ago.
The pair appeared to exchange words shortly after the winning post and some time later Noonan ended up on the turf. Rule pleaded guilty to improper conduct and cannot return until October 26.
Better news for Damien Oliver - he returns to city racing tomorrow after completing his 10 month disqualification for betting on a rival horse.
Ollie will partner Happy Trails in the feature event at Moonee Valley - a horse he rode to victory in last year's Emirates Stakes (below) just one day before beginning his ban.
Cauthen is out for the rest of the Spring.
X-rays have revealed the talented Kiwi three-year-old is shin sore and trainer Andrew Campbell has elected not to take any risks.
Lastly 1992 Melbourne Cup winner Subzero has been honoured with a series of races to be named after him this Spring.
The Subzero Series will consist of three races that are restricted to grey horses just like "Subby" - one at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day, another at Moonee Valley on Manikato Stakes night and lastly the traditional greys-only race run at Flemington on Oaks Day.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Paul Gatt had a dirty day at Balaklava on Wednesday but his three previous meetings resulted in winning doubles at Morphettville (August 31), Murray Bridge (August 28) and Morphettville Parks (Auguist 24). His best chance tomorrow appears to be Vivi Veloce (Morphettville Parks Race 3 No. 2) and Ambrosia (Morphettville Parks Race 5 No. 2) also has claims. Had another dirty day!
Flemington
Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Puissance De Lune was OK but I've got a feeling the Memsie was much stronger than this race (below). Foreteller is usually poor second-up (that's his first placing in six goes), Moudre hasn't won for a while and the four-year-old mare who ran fourth was coming off a win in a midweek 0-84 at Sandown Lakeside.
Sea Moon nearly fell at the start and was lucky to keep his feet, December Draw was sound after a long layoff and Mr Moet didn't see much daylight down the straight.
Locky's Selections
Sea Moon nearly fell at the start and was lucky to keep his feet, December Draw was sound after a long layoff and Mr Moet didn't see much daylight down the straight.
Locky's Selections
8 Puissance De Lune (2nd)
3 Mr Moet (9th)
7 December Draw (10th)
3 Mr Moet (9th)
7 December Draw (10th)
6 Sea Moon (12th)
Danehill Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)
Dunno how strong this race was with a moderately performed Sydney horse easily accounting for the "superior" Victorian three-year-olds.
Locky's Selections
2 Safeguard (4th)
11 Hill Spy (15th)
17 Gregers (5th)
14 Longma (6th)
11 Hill Spy (15th)
17 Gregers (5th)
14 Longma (6th)
Let's Elope Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 4-y-o & up mares set weights plus penalties)
Four of the first five were four-year-olds. Are the older mares an even lot? Bunched finish is a worry too.
Locky's Selections
Locky's Selections
10 Alzora (14th)
6 Bonaria (4th)
9 Thy (10th)
16 A Time For Julia (3rd) $2.70 place
6 Bonaria (4th)
9 Thy (10th)
16 A Time For Julia (3rd) $2.70 place
Randwick
Chelmsford Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)
Winner Hawkspur (below) went enormous to come from well back and Beaten Up was OK given he had to lead under sufferance. Moriarty is ticking along nicely towards the Metrop and Veyron was severely interfered with twice so forgive the run.
Locky's Selections
Locky's Selections
2 Veyron (9th)
11 Hawkspur (1st) $6.10 win / $1.90 place
1 Metal Bender (SCR)
7 Bayrir (6th)
First two were good coming from off the speed. Both can be followed going forward to the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas. Can't say the same for the rest of them.
Locky's Selections
11 Hawkspur (1st) $6.10 win / $1.90 place
1 Metal Bender (SCR)
7 Bayrir (6th)
Furious Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
First two were good coming from off the speed. Both can be followed going forward to the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas. Can't say the same for the rest of them.
Locky's Selections
1 Guelph (2nd) $1.20 place
3 Thump (3rd) $2.40 place
5 Romantic Moon (5th)
2 Twilight Royale (10th)
Any 2 1-3 $2.90
3 Thump (3rd) $2.40 place
5 Romantic Moon (5th)
2 Twilight Royale (10th)
Any 2 1-3 $2.90
Other bets
Sessions (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) was the one I really wanted to be on when I studied the nominations earlier in the week but he's been smashed into short priced favouritism. No surprise because he trialed the house down so hopefully he will get out to a better price if there is a nibble for Hay List or Whittington. $2.20. 2nd. $1.10 place. Ran on well on a leader biased track to just miss.
Teronado (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) comes down from Queensland to take on the Sydney three-year-olds and I'll stick with him because he's been good to me and I think he could be something special. Big track and 1400m suits plus leading Brisbane hoop Jim Byrne travels south for the ride. Dropped back in distance last start yet still came from six lengths off them with 59kg to just miss when they clicked home their final 600m in 33.91 seconds. Each-way at $8.50. 5th. Another who made terrific ground late from well back on a day when it was hard to do. Sent for a spell with an eye to the Autumn.
Fawkner (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) is an old favourite of mine as long time followers of this blog will know but he's not here on sentiment alone. First-up this day last year he demolished them in the Sofitel at Flemington and first-up in the Autumn he came from well back in that farcically run William Reid to run third to Black Caviar and Karuta Queen and his sectionals were sensational. He's a fighter too as he showed in his narrow defeat to Happy Trails in the Emirates and HT was super in the Memsie last week. $5.50. 7th. Ran on OK but was passed by horses who were giving him 3kg. Wait and see.
Teronado (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) comes down from Queensland to take on the Sydney three-year-olds and I'll stick with him because he's been good to me and I think he could be something special. Big track and 1400m suits plus leading Brisbane hoop Jim Byrne travels south for the ride. Dropped back in distance last start yet still came from six lengths off them with 59kg to just miss when they clicked home their final 600m in 33.91 seconds. Each-way at $8.50. 5th. Another who made terrific ground late from well back on a day when it was hard to do. Sent for a spell with an eye to the Autumn.
Fawkner (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) is an old favourite of mine as long time followers of this blog will know but he's not here on sentiment alone. First-up this day last year he demolished them in the Sofitel at Flemington and first-up in the Autumn he came from well back in that farcically run William Reid to run third to Black Caviar and Karuta Queen and his sectionals were sensational. He's a fighter too as he showed in his narrow defeat to Happy Trails in the Emirates and HT was super in the Memsie last week. $5.50. 7th. Ran on OK but was passed by horses who were giving him 3kg. Wait and see.
Rebel Dane (Fleminton Race 7 No. 3) is just better than this lot. Would have preferred to have seen him drawn out for his first go down the straight but I just can't get his second-up run last prep out of my head when he ran Pierro to a nostril in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (below) after being slowly away. $2.80. 4th. Might have been gassed chasing the frantic early tempo set by Adamantium but was entitled to do more at the finish.
Dany The Fox (Flemington Race 4 No. 7) could give Bossy a good day if I'm right because that would make it a winning treble. He put the writing on the wall first-up when an unlucky and slashing third and his best form is at his second run in. A winner at this track and distance and the stable is in good form. $3.90. 2nd. $1.50 place. Beat all but the four-year-old.
Long John (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) will appreciate the wide open spaces of Flemington and he is drawn to get a much softer run in transit than the Kiwi hype horse. May still be looking for further because he strikes me as a Derby type but he does have a win at this track and distance under his belt already. $5. 1st. $5.00 win / $ 1.90 place. Nice horse. Live Caulfield Guineas chance.
Long John (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) will appreciate the wide open spaces of Flemington and he is drawn to get a much softer run in transit than the Kiwi hype horse. May still be looking for further because he strikes me as a Derby type but he does have a win at this track and distance under his belt already. $5. 1st. $5.00 win / $ 1.90 place. Nice horse. Live Caulfield Guineas chance.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
That'll teach you to give me lip!
- Jacob Rule, Stawell, 3 September 2013
- Jacob Rule, Stawell, 3 September 2013
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