Moir Stakes / Rupert Clarke Stakes preview

No blog last week as I was away camping for quite a few days and out of mobile range so submitting was impossible.

Hopefully the freshen up has worked and I can bounce back first-up after a spell!

An abbreviated format this week due to the early start but all will return to normal next week.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Morphettville trainer Phillip Stokes has trained eight winners (40%) and four placegetters (60%) from his last 20 runners. Since September 7 he has had a winner every single day he has taken horses to the track. Has the unbeaten Hucklebuck tonight (Moonee Valley Race 1 No. 7) and Dom Tourneur comes over to take the ride before flying back to Adelaide on Saturday, only to return on Sunday to ride Eclair Big Bang (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6).

Caulfield

*** Check track conditions on Sunday ***

Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Some of these horses are older than God and have had their chances in the past so I'm looking for young horses on the improve here.

There's been absolutely nothing wrong with Ferlax this time in. First-up he was the eye-catcher when flashing home from last in the Aurie's Star and last start he beat all but Atlantic Jewel in the Memsie Stakes and finished in front of subsequent winners in It's A Dundeel and Fiorente. I think that will prove to be a strong form race. The possibility of a wet  track is the only the concern.

Prepared to forgive Rebel Dane for his disappointing effort when second-up as I feel he can bounce back and his fresh win was superb. The good news is we'll actually get a price this weekend and Bossy stays solid. Wide draw is a worry though. Wet track no concern.

Another who will handle the sting out is Strawberry Boy who will appreciate some weight relief and with his good draw should be able to control the tempo. Was a shade disappointing first-up but it took a couple of good ones to get past him and he is unbeaten second-up. Prior to last start was unbeaten up to a mile too.

Peron to round out the First Four. A quality mare who I've been following for some time and if she manages to sneak into the field she could be the lightweight storming home at the end.

Hard to make a case for anything else except probably Solzhenitsyn and Dany The Fox.

Locky's Selections

5 Ferlax
8 Rebel Dane
18 Strawberry Boy
19 Peron

Moonee Valley

*** As of 11a.m. today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forescast is for a mostly sunny day with scattered showers and the chance of thunderstorms developing during the evening. ***

Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

The top four in the market are all first-up and have good credentials when resuming.

Buffering's only defeat fresh was a third to Black Caviar and Hay List in the 2012 Lightning Stakes. He has won his other six. Bel Sprinter is five from five. Snitzerland boasts three wins from four plus a second on debut down the Flemington straight during Cup Week. Epaulette has two from four with a second to Black Caviar in the T. J. Smith Stakes last Autumn and a third behind Pierro and Your Song in last year's Run to the Rose thrown in for good measure.

In terms of Moonee Valley Bel Sprinter has won twice here from three attempts but both wins were fresh over 1000m and his only failure was at the 1200m. In fact in seven goes at the trip he's only been successful once. I don't know if the one marble is a great draw for him either given his barrier manners and racing pattern.

Buffering has five goes here for wins in a McEwen Stakes and this race last year plus a third to Foxwedge and Hay List in a William Reid Stakes. Also ran fourth behind Sepoy, Sister Madly and More Joyous in a Manikato Stakes.

Snitzerland won her only start here in the Champagne Stakes on this day last year while Epaulette is an unknown quantity.

The only others I give any hope of running a drum are Moment of Change and Samaready.

Again sticking with young horses on the up versus older horses who have had their day, and with plenty of speed on paper this could be set up for the swoopers. A bit concerned about the rail being out 3m but the 30mm of rain they've had in the last week should even that out, particularly later on in the meeting. Darley has returned to form too after a few quiet weeks.

Locky's Selections

2 Epaulette
9 Snitzerland
1 Buffering
3 Bel Sprinter

Other bets

Cluster (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 8) is having his first go the Melbourne way but he's drawn to get a smother whereas last start he got flushed out a little early. A talented type who is crying out for the trip and jockey Hugh Bowman makes a hit-and-run mission to Moonee Valley for one ride only before flying back to Sydney for a full book on Saturday. $5.00.

Long John (Caulfield Race 7 No. 4) got us the coin last time and I see no reason not to stay solid. Unbeaten at the journey, the stable is back in form, was a dominant two and a half length winner last start with 58.5kg and is drawn to get a cosy run here. A real little professional who hasn't run a bad race to date. $3.50. 

Drago (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) is another finally getting up to a suitable distance. He was great first-up then just found the 1400m of the Golden Rose a little short second-up but up to 1800m he should be ready to fire. Won over this course and distance three starts back. Granted it was in much weaker company but he lumped a big weight and began slowly only to circle the field and win by four lengths going away in class record time. $3.00.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn has had 10 winners in the last 17 days from just 21 starters at a win strike rate of 47.6%. His best hope tomorrow appears to be Epic Terra (Doomben Race 4 No. 7). 1st. $ 2.60 win / $1.30 place. Dominant all the way win.

Rosehill

Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

There were some hard luck stories but it's hard to make excuses for anything behind the winner because he drew 17 and sat wide and just blew them away with a devastating turn of foot.

Locky's Selections

16 Cluster (8th)
10 Drago (9th)
2 Fast 'n' Rocking (10th)
4 Zoustar (1st) $8.00 win / $2.90 place

Theo Marks Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, quality handicap)

Locky's Selections

2 Solzhenitsyn (2nd) $2.00 place
12 Boban (SCR)
1 Rain Affair (6th)
3 Alma's Fury (8th)

Moonee Valley

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Locky's Selections

8 Super Cool (4th)
3 Fiorente (1st) $3.20 win / $1.40 place
2 Happy Trails (SCR)
10 Bass Strait (5th)

W H Stocks Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, 4-y-o & up mares w-f-a)

Locky's Selections

1 Atlantic Jewel (1st) $1.06 win / $1.04 place
5 Bonne Nuit (4th)
7 Bec Said No Credit (SCR)
6 Ava's Delight (5th)

Other bets

Pelicano (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) each-way in a wide open race. First two runs this prep have been super and he's now stepping up to 2000m where he is unbeaten in three attempts. Won the Parramatta Cup here over this distance back in March. $9. 8th. May have felt the tough run last start because he didn't put in at any stage.

Peron (Rosehill Race 6 No. 12) won her trial by a big space and is unbeaten in three attempts fresh. A winner of six from eight including two from two at the 1200m. Rain the only concern as her only failures have been on affected going. $6.50. 2nd. $1.90 place. Finished powerfully and is one to follow.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

I may have gone up a stride before the post sir.
-  Glen Boss, Steward's Room (Caulfield), 21 September 2013

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Golden Rose preview

What I learned from last week is that if you predict that the track is going to be leader biased then your selections should reflect this. 

I am an idiot.

It also looks like this older brigade aren't much good. It may pay to follow the four-year-olds from hereon in.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING

It's Week Eight and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Rising Fast

Rising Fast went within half a length of being one of the best remembered names of the Spring for all time.

In 1954 he would start nine times in Melbourne in seven weeks for eight wins and a second.

It started on this day with victory in the Feehan (now Dato' Tan Chin Nam) Stakes before he suffered his only defeat of the Carnival when second in the Underwood Stakes. He would win his next seven in a row - including six successive victories in races that are now Group 1's.

He claimed the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Stakes, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes and the Melbourne Cup. He carried 59.5kg in the Melbourne Cup, a feat no winner has matched or bettered in the subsequent 60 years.

He must have been a bit on the fresh side after the Cup because they backed him up four days later to win the C.B. Fisher Plate (think the modern day Queen Elizabeth Stakes).

As if that wasn't enough, he would return the following year and notch successive seconds in the Underwood, Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes before lumping 61.5kg to capture his second Caulfield Cup just a fortnight before grabbing his second Mackinnon Stakes.

His half-length second in the Melbourne Cup was shrouded in controversy. Eventual winner Toparoa caused interference in the straight that was deemed so severe that rider Neville Sellwood was outed for two months. Yet Rising Fast’s owner Leicester Spring would not lodge a protest despite the small margin and massive weight difference. (Rising Fast carried 63.5kg whilst Toparoa had the featherweight of 48kg.)

He obviously came through the run well though, bcause he returned on the Saturday to win back-to-back CB Fisher Plates!

Hard to believe a bloke who went so close to being the only horse ever to win the Cups Double twice is now largely forgotten!

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn has had 10 winners in the last 17 days from just 21 starters at a win strike rate of 47.6%. His best hope tomorrow appears to be Epic Terra (Doomben Race 4 No. 7).

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for morning rain tomorrow, possibly heavy at times, tending to showers in the afternoon. ***

Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

The barrier draw hasn't been kind to a few horses who would have liked to sit on or near the speed - namely Zoustar, Aussies Love Sport, Into The Red, Dissident and Bull Point.

The horses drawn to get the best runs in transit are Prince Harada, Eurozone, Sidestep, Pitcrew and Fast 'n' Rocking.

The market seems to indicate that many believe the Victorian boys have this at their mercy but I'm not convinced. Fast 'n' Rocking has obviously improved but he was safely held when he raced in Sydney during the Autumn. The Vics were comfortably beaten by Charlie Boy in the Danehill last weekend and he was only moderately performed during the Autumn although he did have big wraps that he never quite lived up to.

There's a few here who have had hard luck stories in recent starts (Sidestep, Zoustar, Dissident, Windjammer, Prince Harada, Into The Red, Cluster) so again it's hard to get a line through them.

So in the end I've stuck with the horses I've been following all along.

Locky's Selections

16 Cluster
10 Drago
2 Fast 'n' Rocking
4 Zoustar

Theo Marks Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, quality handicap)

* Hosting is an early scratching

Current market

Rain Affair could win but his record at 1400m and the likelihood of a firm track make me wary of stepping into a short price. The Warwick Stakes has proved to be a strong form race though.

Last prep Solzhenitsyn ran third beaten two and a quarter lengths behind Pierro and More Joyous when first-up in the G1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m). He beat Rain Affair home on that occasion at level weights.

Boban is up in class but drops four kilos from his dominant first-up win. He's in a good stable and the four-year-olds look to have the edge on their older rivals at the moment. Gets a massive pull in the weights from the top two but that is offset somewhat by the horror draw.

Alma's Fury wasn't terrible last week in the Tramway finishing alongside the likes of Sacred Falls, Sizzling and Fawkner.

Locky's Selections

2 Solzhenitsyn
12 Boban
1 Rain Affair
3 Alma's Fury 

Moonee Valley

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day tomorrow with scattered showers. ***

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current market

Super Cool (below) was one of the best runs outside the winner in the Memsie. He's a Moonee Valley winner and won second-up last prep after a similar flashing fresh performance. It would appear the stable have taken the good mare to the easier race to allow him his chance here. Trainer and jockey are flying. Another one of last season's good three-year-olds.

Happy Trails won this race last year and was another slashing run in the Memsie. Ollie has been out of the saddle for a while and will be keen to get back in the winner's circle.

Blinkers go on Fiorente so expect him to be handy (if he jumps with them) but I just wonder if MV is the track for him. As I've stated  in previous posts I think he's better on a big circuit. He didn't appear to like racing inside horses last start so barrier two may not be ideal either.

Bass Strait the roughie for my first four. Another one of last season's three-year-olds who resumed with an eye-catching second where he came from last at the 400m to be beaten narrowly in a race where the winner Don't Get Excited sprinted home the final 600m in 33.34 seconds. That horse has subsequently won to make it four on the trot for him so it is a good form reference.

Locky's Selections

8 Super Cool
3 Fiorente
2 Happy Trails
10 Bass Strait

W H Stocks Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, 4-y-o & up mares w-f-a)

Current market

I'm not keen to have a bet but Atlantic Jewel picks herself here.

If you want some value for your quinellas and trifectas I don't see how Bonne Nuit comes up $101 here. Drops back to her own sex after two runs against the boys. Prior to that won two in a row in fillies and mares grade including one here at the Valley over this trip.

Bec Said No Credit has won three on end and I love following mares in form. Get's a tick for being a four-year-old, as does Ava's Delight. Has form at the track and the distance and is rock hard fit.

Locky's Selections

1 Atlantic Jewel
5 Bonne Nuit
7 Bec Said No Credit
6 Ava's Delight

Other bets

Pelicano (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) each-way in a wide open race. First two runs this prep have been super and he's now stepping up to 2000m where he is unbeaten in three attempts. Won the Parramatta Cup here over this distance back in March. $9.

Peron (Rosehill Race 6 No. 12) won her trial by a big space and is unbeaten in three attempts fresh. A winner of six from eight including two from two at the 1200m. Rain the only concern as her only failures have been on affected going. $6.50.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

No suspensions out of last weekend for a change but hoop Nicholas Hall is lighter in the pocket after stipes slugged him $1000 for dropping his hands on winner Bound For Earth in the Furious Stakes.

Hall admitted to misjudging where the finishing post was saying the final 100m of the running rail in NSW is painted differently than those in Victoria.

Meantime Jacob Rule has been suspended for six weeks following an incident which saw fellow rider Jake Noonan dislodged from his mount after the winning post at Stawell ten days ago.

The pair appeared to exchange words shortly after the winning post and some time later Noonan ended up on the turf. Rule pleaded guilty to improper conduct and cannot return until October 26.

Better news for Damien Oliver - he returns to city racing tomorrow after completing his 10 month disqualification for betting on a rival horse.

Ollie will partner Happy Trails in the feature event at Moonee Valley - a horse he rode to victory in last year's Emirates Stakes (below) just one day before beginning his ban.

Cauthen is out for the rest of the Spring.

X-rays have revealed the talented Kiwi three-year-old is shin sore and trainer Andrew Campbell has elected not to take any risks.

Lastly 1992 Melbourne Cup winner Subzero has been honoured with a series of races to be named after him this Spring.

The Subzero Series will consist of three races that are restricted to grey horses just like "Subby" - one at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day, another at Moonee Valley on Manikato Stakes night and lastly the traditional greys-only race run at Flemington on Oaks Day.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Paul Gatt had a dirty day at Balaklava on Wednesday but his three previous meetings resulted in winning doubles at Morphettville (August 31), Murray Bridge (August 28) and Morphettville Parks (Auguist 24). His best chance tomorrow appears to be Vivi Veloce (Morphettville Parks Race 3 No. 2) and Ambrosia (Morphettville Parks Race 5 No. 2) also has claims. Had another dirty day!

Flemington

Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Puissance De Lune was OK but I've got a feeling the Memsie was much stronger than this race (below). Foreteller is usually poor second-up (that's his first placing in six goes), Moudre hasn't won for a while and the four-year-old mare who ran fourth was coming off a win in a midweek 0-84 at Sandown Lakeside.

Sea Moon nearly fell at the start and was lucky to keep his feet, December Draw was sound after a long layoff and Mr Moet didn't see much daylight down the straight.

Locky's Selections

8 Puissance De Lune (2nd)
3 Mr Moet (9th)
7 December Draw (10th)

6 Sea Moon (12th)

Danehill Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Dunno how strong this race was with a moderately performed Sydney horse easily accounting for the "superior" Victorian three-year-olds.

Locky's Selections

2 Safeguard (4th)
11 Hill Spy (15th)
17 Gregers (5th)
14 Longma (6th)

Let's Elope Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 4-y-o & up mares set weights plus penalties)

Four of the first five were four-year-olds. Are the older mares an even lot? Bunched finish is a worry too.

Locky's Selections

10 Alzora (14th)
6 Bonaria (4th)
9 Thy (10th)
16 A Time For Julia (3rd) $2.70 place

Randwick

Chelmsford Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Winner Hawkspur (below) went enormous to come from well back and Beaten Up was OK given he had to lead under sufferance. Moriarty is ticking along nicely towards the Metrop and Veyron was severely interfered with twice so forgive the run.

Locky's Selections

2 Veyron (9th)
11 Hawkspur (1st) $6.10 win / $1.90 place
1 Metal Bender (SCR)
7 Bayrir (6th)

Furious Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

First two were good coming from off the speed. Both can be followed going forward to the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas. Can't say the same for the rest of them.

Locky's Selections

1 Guelph (2nd) $1.20 place
3 Thump (3rd) $2.40 place
5 Romantic Moon (5th)
2 Twilight Royale (10th)

Any 2 1-3 $2.90

Other bets

Sessions (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) was the one I really wanted to be on when I studied the nominations earlier in the week but he's been smashed into short priced favouritism. No surprise because he trialed the house down so hopefully he will get out to a better price if there is a nibble for Hay List or Whittington. $2.20. 2nd. $1.10 place. Ran on well on a leader biased track to just miss.

Teronado (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) comes down from Queensland to take on the Sydney three-year-olds and I'll stick with him because he's been good to me and I think he could be something special. Big track and 1400m suits plus leading Brisbane hoop Jim Byrne travels south for the ride. Dropped back in distance last start yet still came from six lengths off them with 59kg to just miss when they clicked home their final 600m in 33.91 seconds. Each-way at $8.50. 5th. Another who made terrific ground late from well back on a day when it was hard to do. Sent for a spell with an eye to the Autumn.

Fawkner (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) is an old favourite of mine as long time followers of this blog will know but he's not here on sentiment alone. First-up this day last year he demolished them in the Sofitel at Flemington and first-up in the Autumn he came from well back in that farcically run William Reid to run third to Black Caviar and Karuta Queen and his sectionals were sensational. He's a fighter too as he showed in his narrow defeat to Happy Trails in the Emirates and HT was super in the Memsie last week. $5.50. 7th. Ran on OK but was passed by horses who were giving him 3kg. Wait and see.

Rebel Dane (Fleminton Race 7 No. 3) is just better than this lot. Would have preferred to have seen him drawn out for his first go down the straight but I just can't get his second-up run last prep out of my head when he ran Pierro to a nostril in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (below) after being slowly away. $2.80. 4th. Might have been gassed chasing the frantic early tempo set by Adamantium but was entitled to do more at the finish.

Dany The Fox (Flemington Race 4 No. 7) could give Bossy a good day if I'm right because that would make it a winning treble. He put the writing on the wall first-up when an unlucky and slashing third and his best form is at his second run in. A winner at this track and distance and the stable is in good form. $3.90. 2nd. $1.50 place. Beat all but the four-year-old.

Long John (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) will appreciate the wide open spaces of Flemington and he is drawn to get a much softer run in transit than the Kiwi hype horse. May still be looking for further because he strikes me as a Derby type but he does have a win at this track and distance under his belt already. $5. 1st. $5.00 win / $ 1.90 place. Nice horse. Live Caulfield Guineas chance.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

That'll teach you to give me lip!
-  Jacob Rule, Stawell, 3 September 2013

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Makybe Diva Stakes preview

A rather disappointing performance last week and another tough day of racing presents itself tomorrow so I'm tinkering with the format a little to provide a top four and my advice is to box them in quinellas and trifectas.

If you have perused the form already you will know what I am talking about with 11 Black Type races spread across NSW and Victoria including the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING

It's Week Seven and we look back at another forgotten hero - a grand campaigner of Spring Carnivals gone by whose name we seldom, if ever hear anymore.

As I've written in previous weeks over the next few months I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of yesteryear.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Aquanita

This is a name that in modern times is associated with the training establishment but the Western Australian was also a quality galloper. He would only appear in Melbourne for three Spring Carnivals during his career but he would make his mark.

1962 was by far his best Spring and it started on this very day with victory in the Craiglee (now Makybe Diva) Stakes. He would go on to claim the Underwood Stakes, Turnbull Stakes (lumping 63kg!), the Cox Plate and the Mackinnon. 

That wasn't his first Underwood having won the race a year earlier in 1961. He also scored back-to-back victories in the George Adams Handicap at Flemington (the modern day Emirates Stakes) in 1960/61 - the second with 59.5kg. 

In all he would start 70 times for 28 wins including a Doomben 10,000, a Railway Stakes, an Alister Clarke, a Futurity, an Orr and a St George. 

He also racked up 19 placings. He ran third in the Memsie and second in the Craiglee of 1961 (both times behind Lord) and finished second in the Caulfiled Stakes and third in the Mackinnon the same year (both times behind Sky High). He also ran 3rd in the 1962 Melbourne Cup with 59kg despite not being a genuine two miler.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Paul Gatt had a dirty day at Balaklava on Wednesday but his three previous meetings resulted in winning doubles at Morphettville (August 31), Murray Bridge (August 28) and Morphettville Parks (Auguist 24). His best chance tomorrow appears to be Vivi Veloce (Morphettville Parks Race 3 No. 2) and Ambrosia (Morphettville Parks Race 5 No. 2) also has claims.

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day tomorrow with isolated showers. ***

Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

* Beaten Up is an early scratching

Current market

If Puissance De Lune has gone forward since his last start win it's hard to see him getting beaten. Sure the lot he beat were distanced in the Memsie but he did it so easily, which is why I'm not worried about "second-up syndrome" because it was a soft win. Plus nine of his 13 rivals are first-up.

Of those Mr Moet runs well fresh (5:3-1-0) and he's effective at the mile (5:2-0-1) whereas a lot of these are not. His effort to be just three quarters of a length behind All Too Hard in the Orr Stakes in February (below) was enormous off a slow tempo. I think the mile and the long straight at Flemington suits.

The Kavanagh/Rodd team are on a high at the moment and the blinkers go on December Draw for the very first time. (Maldivian anyone?) He has shown a liking for this track in the past and can run a nice race at this trip first-up after a spell. He's not on a Cups path this Spring either so expect him to be forward.

Sea Moon is the watch runner. He's obviously a quality animal but will Macedon Lodge want to unleash him this early?

Ethiopia will need the run and Foreteller goes poorly second-up and he had a gustbuster last time out. I'll be keeping an eye on them though because when they get to 2000m+ I think there could be a nice race in each of them.

Locky's Selections

8 Puissance De Lune
3 Mr Moet
7 December Draw

6 Sea Moon

Danehill Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

* Hooked and Thermal Current are early scratchings

Current market

I cannot believe that Safeguard has come up $5.50 here. He's not nominated for the Guineas and is being kept to the sprint trips while many of the others have more important races to worry about further down the road. At the SW+P he's well in and he's won down the straight before. I think that Fast 'n' Rocking form will stand up.

For that reason I think the next best is Hill Spy. Good win on debut and solid without being spectacular behind Safeguard and Fast 'n' Rocking.

Gregers has been all the rage in early markets but I think this is a big step up and I can't have her at that price but she'll no doubt be in my quaddie.

Longma the next best. He smashed them on debut but it was Werribee and it was a bog track but all you can do is win.

Others in commission are Romantic Touch (big weight, first-up, too short), Eclair Big Bang (only fell in last start in SA), Il Cavallo (needs it shorter), Scandiva (prefer to see) and Kiss A Rose (not keen on the Quezette form).

Locky's Selections

2 Safeguard
11 Hill Spy
17 Gregers
14 Longma

Let's Elope Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 4-y-o & up mares set weights plus penalties)

* Crucial is an early scratching

Current market

I hope I'm in front coming to the last because as "Get Out Stakes" go this is a doozy. My plan here is to take a four horse quinella and hope one of my roughies bobs up and provides a bit of value.

A host of chances but I can't see why Alzora is $26. First start last prep she won the Group 3 Vanity at this track and distance. The stable is flying too. Thy has great second-up form (3:2-1-0) and I don't think her last win (against the boys) was a fluke. She's well drawn and well in at relative weights. A Time For Julia and Bonaria made good late ground last start from well back in the Cockram Stakes. Bonaria meets the other a kilo better off too and races well here (6:2-1-1).

I've had to leave out some nice ones in Dear Demi (first-up record average), Commanding Jewel (waiting to see her do something), Catkins (formline? 1400m? second-up?) and Octavia (1400m?) but you can't have them all.

Locky's Selections

10 Alzora
6 Bonaria
9 Thy
16 A Time For Julia

Randwick

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy tomorrow. ***

Chelmsford Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current market

Watch the early races here because with the rail out 8m it could be hard to make ground from back in the field. Combine that with the lack of any real pace here and this could become one of those tactical, sit and sprint, weight-for-age affairs. (Glencadam Gold could lead first-up at a mile but you wouldn't think he'd be running them along this early in his prep.)

Veyron picks himself as one of the few in the race who is suited by the 1600m and he's in form having helped us to a $200+ trifecta last start when defeating Rain Affair and Streama at $21. He had a pretty easy run last start too camped behind Streama while she chased the tearaway leader.

Beaten Up (4th), Metal Bender (6th) and Hawkspur (7th) were all great in the Warwick Stakes but how much did chasing that hot speed take out of them? 

Hawkspur is drawn to sit closer this time and he has done just that in the past but over longer trips. He did run second to Toydini second-up last preparation in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) on ATC Derby Day but was beaten almost four lengths. His best runs his last two preps have been four, five and six runs in.

Metal Bender won the Group1 George Ryder Stakes the last time he was second-up. Has had five goes second-up for three wins and a narrow second to Theseo in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes at this course and distance on a bog track. His only other go at the Randwick mile saw him win the G1 Randwick Guineas.

Beaten Up has found his place in the market and I'm just worried that tough run fresh may have flattened him because he had to chase for a long way. Bayrir is another from the Waller yard who is in the market and he has form behind subsequent Hawkesbury Cup winner Coup Ay Tee but I just wonder if that is strong enough for this race. He is the fresh horse on the scene however coming off a five week break.

Locky's Selections

2 Veyron
11 Hawkspur
1 Metal Bender
7 Bayrir

Furious Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

* Kiss A Rose is an early scratching

Current market

Guelph could win this by panels.

In a handicap event she would giving all of these at least nine kilos yet she meets them at level weights. Trialed like a bomb and looked bigger and stronger so it appears she's improved during her spell. $2.20 or better and I will think about stepping in.

Thump is being ridden more aggressively this time in and as I've previously noted being up on the tempo could be an advantage if this turns into a leaders highway. She'll also add a bit of value to exotics at $12 if the shortie dominates as I expect.

Romantic Moon has failed twice on wet tracks but her two runs on top of the ground have resulted in dominant wins, one over Thump at level weights. Her two trials in preparation have been average though.

Twilight Royale wasn't terrible first-up and if she can improve she could lob into a first four position. Won the VRC Sires produce.


Locky's Selections

1 Guelph
3 Thump
5 Romantic Moon
2 Twilight Royale

Other bets

Sessions (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) was the one I really wanted to be on when I studied the nominations earlier in the week but he's been smashed into short priced favouritism. No surprise because he trialed the house down so hopefully he will get out to a better price if there is a nibble for Hay List or Whittington. $2.20.

Teronado (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) comes down from Queensland to take on the Sydney three-year-olds and I'll stick with him because he's been good to me and I think he could be something special. Big track and 1400m suits plus leading Brisbane hoop Jim Byrne travels south for the ride. Dropped back in distance last start yet still came from six lengths off them with 59kg to just miss when they clicked home their final 600m in 33.91 seconds. Each-way at $8.50.

Fawkner (Randwick Race 6 No. 8) is an old favourite of mine as long time followers of this blog will know but he's not here on sentiment alone. First-up this day last year he demolished them in the Sofitel at Flemington and first-up in the Autumn he came from well back in that farcically run William Reid to run third to Black Caviar and Karuta Queen and his sectionals were sensational. He's a fighter too as he showed in his narrow defeat to Happy Trails in the Emirates and HT was super in the Memsie last week. $5.50.

Rebel Dane (Fleminton Race 7 No. 3) is just better than this lot. Would have preferred to have seen him drawn out for his first go down the straight but I just can't get his second-up run last prep out of my head when he ran Pierro to a nostril in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (below) after being slowly away. $2.80.

Dany The Fox (Flemington Race 4 No. 7) could give Bossy a good day if I'm right because that would make it a winning treble. He put the writing on the wall first-up when an unlucky and slashing third and his best form is at his second run in. A winner at this track and distance and the stable is in good form. $3.90.

Long John (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) will appreciate the wide open spaces of Flemington and he is drawn to get a much softer run in transit than the Kiwi hype horse. May still be looking for further because he strikes me as a Derby type but he does have a win at this track and distance under his belt already. $5.

NEWS OF THE WEEK

Norzita is out for the Spring.

Scans on the mare's off foreleg have revealed a tendon injury.

Caulfield Cup weights have been released with Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon allocated topweight of 58kg.

Other notables include ruling favourite Super Cool (55kg), Fiorente (55.5kg), international Dandino (55kg), Jet Away (53.5kg), Oaks winner Royal Descent (52.5kg) and Queensland Derby winner Hawkspur (53kg).

Stewards have opened an inquiry into why a race on Mildura Cup Day was run over the wrong distance.

The 0-58 rating race should have been a 1000m event but was instead run over 1100m. Incredibly no-one noticed the error until after correct weight had been given and the judge queried the time.

Good news for jockey Michael Rodd - he's claimed the prestigious Scobie Breasley Medal.

The award is presented to Victoria's most outstanding metropolitan rider as judged by Racing Victoria stewards.

Bad news for a few other hoops though with stewards particularly busy at Caulfield last Saturday. 

Luke Nolen, Michael Walker, Michelle Payne, Lauren Stojakovic and Brett Prebble all earned their wrath although Nolen will be free to ride tomorrow as his ban expires at midnight tonight.

Walker got nine meetings and returns September 10 while Prebble and Stojakovic got 12 meetings and are out until September 13.

Payne only got 10 meetings but won't return until a day later as her suspension did not begin until September 3.

Meanwhile Tim Bell will be on the sidelines until September 15 after Sydney stipes outed him for his ride on Napayshini.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

All bar one of Joe Pride's last 13 runners have finished top four - across 7 different meetings stretching back to August 21. Four winners, four seconds, two thirds and two fourths. Just the one runner in town tomorrow with Brave Soul (Rosehill Race 7 No. 1). 4th. SACKED.

Caulfield

Memsie Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Lots of good runs here but none better than the winner. Hard to see her getting beaten this Spring. Ferlax, Super Cool, It's A Dundeel, Green Moon, Fiorente and Happy Trails were all good. Silent Achiever was also great because she stayed right with them all the way down the straight despite being under a stranglehold with nowhere to go.

Locky's Selections

9 It's A Dundeel (4th)
5 Fiorente (6th)
10 Super Cool (3rd) $3.90 place

H.D.F. McNeil Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Demolition Derby here but I think the best horse won and the runner-up is a nice one going forward. Miracles Of Life can be forgiven because she was very fresh and wanted to overrace.

Locky's Selections

2 Fast 'n' Rocking (1st) $4.40 win / $2.00 place
3 Prince Harada (2nd) $2.90 place
1 Miracles Of Life (4th)

Quinella 2-3 $10.60
Exacta 2-3 $22.80

Rosehill

Run To The Rose (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

A few unlucky runners here (Windjammer, Spurrendous, Sidestep) because there was a heap of interference. Zoustar blew the start and got caught wide as a result and Cluster had to go back and come wide from his barrier on a day when you couldn't win from there. Into The Red was good in that regard too. The first three got the best runs in transit but still did the job at both ends so there was merit. Criterion and Napayshini just got too far back. Think the Melbourne colts might be better though.

Locky's Selections

12 Cluster (5th)
1 Sidestep (11th)
2 Criterion (14th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Pelicano (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) was fantastic first-up in the Auries Star. Strung three wins together last prep over 2000m and has jumped to a trip second-up in the past and won. The stable is in good form at the moment and they reckon this bloke Williams can ride OK. Worth a tickle each-way at $10. 4th. Closed well late but just got too far back when the tearaway leader broke them up. There's a nice staying race in him somewhere.

Pocket Rockets (Caulfield Race 6 No. 7) sees the same jockey/trainer combo again and was also an eye-catcher last start when he blew the start. If he can jump with them tomorrow the early money ($17 into $9) suggests he can be a player. $10 still available with some operators. 12th. Craig Williams suggested he may benefit from the use of a tongue tie but a post-race examination failed to show any abnormalities.

Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 5 No. 4) won't be any flash price but he should just win. Unbeaten in three runs first-up and three runs second-up so he flies when fresh and he's unbeaten (six from six) at distances up to a mile. No. 1 rider for the Moody stable Luke Nolen has jumped off the only real danger in stablemate High Esteem to ride this bloke. That'll do me. Looks the best on a tough day. $2.60. 3rd. Big weight may have told first-up because they he didn't go overly quick in front. Winner is great fresh and second horse got a lovely pull in the weights. Only run down late. Don't dismiss him just yet. $1.40 place.

Lunayir (Rosehill Race 8 No. 7) looks an each-way pinch here. His only two career wins have been second-up and he's getting up to a suitable trip here after flashing home fresh in an unsuitable 1400m event. Gets a 2.5kg swing in the weights from favourite Honorius who I think is right at the upper limit of his preferred distance range here. $7.50 looks appetising. 12th. A post-race examination revealed a small wound to the gum but trainer Chris Waller could offer no explanation for the performance. He'll have to trial to stewards satisfaction in the meantime and Waller indicated it would be his intention to ride the horse more aggresively next start. May need the sting out of the ground too.

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