Thank God for Luvaluva last weekend otherwise it would have been a dirty day.
Of my four other tips Oohood and Ace High were beaten in photos while Kementari and In Her Time were slaughtered.
Of my four other tips Oohood and Ace High were beaten in photos while Kementari and In Her Time were slaughtered.
RANDWICK
*** At time of publication a track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for the chance of showers in the morning. ***
Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** There are no an early scratchings ***
The pace looks just moderate here with only Hiyaam going forward and maybe Chilly Cha Cha and Contessa Vanessa. Given it is an Oaks and a few are on trial at the journey I can't see them going breakneck speed. I think this race will all come down to which form line you prefer - the G1 Vinery, G2 Adrian Knox or the G1 NZ Oaks. I'll look through them in that order.
Unforgotten was just left with too much to do last start in the G1 Vinery (below) after Hiyaam got away with daylight robbery in front. Prior to that she was devastating winning the G2 Phar Lap from last on the turn. She's never been beyond 2000m and has to be suspect given she's a daughter of Fastnet Rock. Hugh Bowman has won this race four times including three of the last six. Hiyaam is by High Chaparral out of a Zabeel mare so she is bred to stay. She finished third in the G1 VRC Oaks in the Spring so the distance box has been ticked off and she's clearly the been the best backed runner ($7 into $4.60) since the barrier draw. Probably because she maps so favourably from barrier one. As previously mentioned she dominated from the front in the G1 Vinery kicking before the turn after getting a soft time in the lead. Aloisia finished third behind the aforementioned two last start in the G1 Vinery. She did well to get that close after an ordinary ride by Mark Zahra where she was wide without cover for the majority of the journey. Unfortunately she's made a habit of finding trouble this Autumn. She failed in the G1 VRC Oaks in the Spring when an odds-on favourite but who knows how much all these fillies have developed in the last five months? Of the longer priced chances Bring Me Roses could bounce back from a flat effort in the G1 Vinery without surprising. She flopped badly in the G2 Wakeful last November (as favourite) before backing up five days later in the G1 VRC Oaks and running second at $31. Her run against the boys in the G1 Australian Guineas three starts back was full of merit but she has a tricky barrier draw to overcome.
Luvaluva got up in the final bound last weekend (below) to claim the G2 Adrian Knox. They initially wanted to run in the G1 Vinery the previous Saturday but she suffered a setback. It doesn't appear to have done her any harm because she gave all her rivals 7kg last week and ran them down and after all it is the same path trainer John Sargent took with Gust Of Wind (4th) before winning this race in 2015. It's hard to see fillies who finished behind her like Chilly Cha Cha (3rd) and She's A Treasure (6th) turning the tables here. The barrier is the knock.
Savvy Coup comes into this off a soft win in the G1 NZ Oaks (below) when she cruised to victory under what looked to be a stranglehold. That was four weeks ago with no run in between but Bonneval did the same thing last year. Her previous start was even more impressive when she cantered in with the G3 Lowland Stakes. She's won five of her last eight with placings behind the colts and geldings in the other three races.
Contessa Vanessa was no match for Savvy Coup in that G1 NZ Oaks (above) but she did finish a clear second and NZ based fillies have won three of the last four renewals of this race. With her on-speed racing pattern and good draw she'll give a good sight for a long way and will be advantaged if they crawl in front. Danzdanzdance ran well behind the boys when third in the G1 NZ Derby but her subsequent run in the G1 Vinery was just so-so. Perhaps we can be forgiving of that run given she was four weeks between runs and 2400m back to 2000m.
It's hard to make a case for the other three.
Unforgotten was just left with too much to do last start in the G1 Vinery (below) after Hiyaam got away with daylight robbery in front. Prior to that she was devastating winning the G2 Phar Lap from last on the turn. She's never been beyond 2000m and has to be suspect given she's a daughter of Fastnet Rock. Hugh Bowman has won this race four times including three of the last six. Hiyaam is by High Chaparral out of a Zabeel mare so she is bred to stay. She finished third in the G1 VRC Oaks in the Spring so the distance box has been ticked off and she's clearly the been the best backed runner ($7 into $4.60) since the barrier draw. Probably because she maps so favourably from barrier one. As previously mentioned she dominated from the front in the G1 Vinery kicking before the turn after getting a soft time in the lead. Aloisia finished third behind the aforementioned two last start in the G1 Vinery. She did well to get that close after an ordinary ride by Mark Zahra where she was wide without cover for the majority of the journey. Unfortunately she's made a habit of finding trouble this Autumn. She failed in the G1 VRC Oaks in the Spring when an odds-on favourite but who knows how much all these fillies have developed in the last five months? Of the longer priced chances Bring Me Roses could bounce back from a flat effort in the G1 Vinery without surprising. She flopped badly in the G2 Wakeful last November (as favourite) before backing up five days later in the G1 VRC Oaks and running second at $31. Her run against the boys in the G1 Australian Guineas three starts back was full of merit but she has a tricky barrier draw to overcome.
Luvaluva got up in the final bound last weekend (below) to claim the G2 Adrian Knox. They initially wanted to run in the G1 Vinery the previous Saturday but she suffered a setback. It doesn't appear to have done her any harm because she gave all her rivals 7kg last week and ran them down and after all it is the same path trainer John Sargent took with Gust Of Wind (4th) before winning this race in 2015. It's hard to see fillies who finished behind her like Chilly Cha Cha (3rd) and She's A Treasure (6th) turning the tables here. The barrier is the knock.
Savvy Coup comes into this off a soft win in the G1 NZ Oaks (below) when she cruised to victory under what looked to be a stranglehold. That was four weeks ago with no run in between but Bonneval did the same thing last year. Her previous start was even more impressive when she cantered in with the G3 Lowland Stakes. She's won five of her last eight with placings behind the colts and geldings in the other three races.
It's hard to make a case for the other three.
Locky's Tip
4. Savvy Coup EACH-WAY the best value. The top five in the market all have chances.
OTHER BETS
I Am Excited (Randwick Race 5 No. 10) is a good price for a girl who's won her last three. Sure there's some well performed fillies in this race but they do tend to mix their form so I'll stick with the in-form horse who just keeps winning. She beat subsequent winners Marsupial (first-up) and Houtzen (second-up) earlier this prep.
Sir Charles Road (Randwick Race 8 No. 13) drops 6kg from last weekend's win (below) in the G2 Chairmans and once again maps to get a lovely run in transit. Two runs back he finished sixth in the G1 Auckland Cup beaten a length and a half with 56kg. Jockey Andrew Adkins should get an armchair ride from barrier four.
Samovare (Randwick Race 9 No. 14) has had three consecutive seconds this campaign behind Silent Sedition and Spanish Reef (twice) and yet will start triple the price of that pair. She didn't enjoy the best of luck two starts back when sweating on a run that never came and she had no hope last start on that leader's highway at Moonee Valley. I'm happy to play her each-way at the juicy price from the good barrier draw.
Good punting!
