After more than two months in the spelling paddock I return to racing this weekend just in time for a massive G1 triple header at in Melbourne.
I hope you backed a few winners over the break when you weren't distracted by my rubbish tips.
I hope you backed a few winners over the break when you weren't distracted by my rubbish tips.
CAULFIELD
*** At time of publication a track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a high chance of showers. ***
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
The fact that Chautauqua was nominated but didn't accept has left us with a farcical weight scale. Just 3.5kg separates Flamberge and Olivier despite the pair being 30 points (or 15kg) apart in official handicap ratings. The 3-y-o fillies do look well placed at the scale although She Will Reign and Booker have drawn awkwardly.
Half the field is first-up too which makes it difficult especially given I expect the early speed will be scorching with on-speed runners Russian Revolution, Sheidel, Prussian Vixen, Booker, She Will Reign and Snitty Kitty all drawn in the outside half of the field.
You could make a case for quite a few here.
Russian Revolution is three from three fresh including a G1 Galaxy (beating Redzel below) and a G2 McEwen Stakes and he's also three from three at 1100m. He's two from two with Mark Zahra on board. She Will Reign draws wide but only has to negotiate one bend and she's won six of her only eight starts. She already has a w-f-a victory over older horses in the G1 Moir Stakes. Booker cannot boast that on her CV but she does boast a good Caulfield record. She'll need luck from that barrier though and has no weight. Snitty Kitty has two wins and a second in three runs at the Caulfield 1100m and she's never missed a top-two finish second-up. The barrier draw did her no favours though.
Half the field is first-up too which makes it difficult especially given I expect the early speed will be scorching with on-speed runners Russian Revolution, Sheidel, Prussian Vixen, Booker, She Will Reign and Snitty Kitty all drawn in the outside half of the field.
You could make a case for quite a few here.
Russian Revolution is three from three fresh including a G1 Galaxy (beating Redzel below) and a G2 McEwen Stakes and he's also three from three at 1100m. He's two from two with Mark Zahra on board. She Will Reign draws wide but only has to negotiate one bend and she's won six of her only eight starts. She already has a w-f-a victory over older horses in the G1 Moir Stakes. Booker cannot boast that on her CV but she does boast a good Caulfield record. She'll need luck from that barrier though and has no weight. Snitty Kitty has two wins and a second in three runs at the Caulfield 1100m and she's never missed a top-two finish second-up. The barrier draw did her no favours though.
Catchy has won twice at this track and trip and her only miss was a narrow second with 58.5kg. She won't know herself with just 51.5kg. Fuhryk was good last start when second behind Viddora in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes in December. Her first up form isn't flash but her jockey and the stable are in good touch. Flamberge looks like he'll get a lovely trail here with so much speed drawn out. He won this race two years ago (below) and has won two other G1's. Last start he split Super Cash and Merchant Navy. Three wins and three placings at this track and trip. Bon Aways had a win over Brave Smash last prep. From all reports his trials have been superb but this is his first try at G1 level. All of his five wins have been at 1200m.
Sheidel won this race last year with 53kg but has only been placed once in seven subsequent starts. Illustrious Lad was second at this course and distance fresh last Spring in the G2 Schillaci Stakes and drops 4.5kg on that run. Hellbent was fourth in this race last year but has had seven starts here for just the one win and zero placings.
I find it difficult to get excited about any of the other runners.
Locky's Bet
1. Flamberge EACH-WAY
Futurity Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
We have a small field in a G1 w-f-a contest here so it could turn out to be a tactical affair that turns into a sprint home. I say this because Lord Of The Sky probably leads unchallenged and given his poor 1400m record I doubt he'll be trying to break any land speed records. Tempo and luck in running will play a big part here. There's probably eight genuine winning chances.
Brave Smash just missed fresh in the G1 Orr Stakes after a luckless run. He's drawn wide here and he's making a habit of finding trouble so I can't take the $3.50 on offer. Stablemate Tosen Stardom was ridden upside down in the same race (below) so it may pay to overlook that effort. Second-up last Spring he ran very well at this track and trip in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Mighty Boss was another who didn't have much go his way in the G1 Orr Stakes. The first-up win of Kementari makes that Caulfield Guineas form look pretty good too. Humidor is a horse a have a high opinion of but he usually needs a run under his belt before hitting top gear. He's not suited by the fact that there doesn't appear to be any tempo.
Mr Sneaky was very good fresh and just OK second-up. Third run in last campaign he was a narrow second in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes at this circuit. He's won twice here but both were at 1200m. Shillelagh draws the outer but it's not that big a field. She was just plain fresh but her second-up record is much better reading. Last prep she was a fast finishing third at this course and distance in the G2 Tristarc Stakes. Showtime has a bit of work to do from the draw but with no real speed he could end up behind the leader. He closed well fresh behind Trapeze Artist in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Lord Of The Sky is none from three at 1400m but six of his seven career wins have been at Caulfield. If they let him get away with it in front he could be hard to run down.
It's hard to entertain the other three.
Locky's Bet
10. Mighty Boss WIN
*** There are no early scratchings ***
We have a small field in a G1 w-f-a contest here so it could turn out to be a tactical affair that turns into a sprint home. I say this because Lord Of The Sky probably leads unchallenged and given his poor 1400m record I doubt he'll be trying to break any land speed records. Tempo and luck in running will play a big part here. There's probably eight genuine winning chances.
Brave Smash just missed fresh in the G1 Orr Stakes after a luckless run. He's drawn wide here and he's making a habit of finding trouble so I can't take the $3.50 on offer. Stablemate Tosen Stardom was ridden upside down in the same race (below) so it may pay to overlook that effort. Second-up last Spring he ran very well at this track and trip in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Mighty Boss was another who didn't have much go his way in the G1 Orr Stakes. The first-up win of Kementari makes that Caulfield Guineas form look pretty good too. Humidor is a horse a have a high opinion of but he usually needs a run under his belt before hitting top gear. He's not suited by the fact that there doesn't appear to be any tempo.
Brave Smash just missed fresh in the G1 Orr Stakes after a luckless run. He's drawn wide here and he's making a habit of finding trouble so I can't take the $3.50 on offer. Stablemate Tosen Stardom was ridden upside down in the same race (below) so it may pay to overlook that effort. Second-up last Spring he ran very well at this track and trip in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Mighty Boss was another who didn't have much go his way in the G1 Orr Stakes. The first-up win of Kementari makes that Caulfield Guineas form look pretty good too. Humidor is a horse a have a high opinion of but he usually needs a run under his belt before hitting top gear. He's not suited by the fact that there doesn't appear to be any tempo.
Mr Sneaky was very good fresh and just OK second-up. Third run in last campaign he was a narrow second in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes at this circuit. He's won twice here but both were at 1200m. Shillelagh draws the outer but it's not that big a field. She was just plain fresh but her second-up record is much better reading. Last prep she was a fast finishing third at this course and distance in the G2 Tristarc Stakes. Showtime has a bit of work to do from the draw but with no real speed he could end up behind the leader. He closed well fresh behind Trapeze Artist in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Lord Of The Sky is none from three at 1400m but six of his seven career wins have been at Caulfield. If they let him get away with it in front he could be hard to run down.
It's hard to entertain the other three.
10. Mighty Boss WIN
OTHER BETS
Pierata (Rosehill Race 7 No. 4) has been good to me. Regular readers (who aren't yet in a Debtor's prison) will know I've been on this guys back for a long time and he hasn't disappointed. I see no reason to drop off now and I'm hoping for a bold showing especially given I've got him running in the G1 Randwick Guineas at $21 in a fortnight's time. He looks like a potential G1 horse.
Good punting!
