Well it's been three months but the blog returns after a layoff due to a lack of Group 1 racing and an extended trip to the USA to catch some NFL.
It's a great weekend of racing with Group 1's on Friday night (Moonee Valley) and Sunday (Caulfield) plus a Saturday meeting at Rosehill that features no fewer than six Black Type races.
It's a great weekend of racing with Group 1's on Friday night (Moonee Valley) and Sunday (Caulfield) plus a Saturday meeting at Rosehill that features no fewer than six Black Type races.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
In the last three weeks Brisbane trainer Rob Heathcote has had 10 winners from 38 runners at a strike rate of 26.3%.
He has just one entrant tonight - Buffering (Moonee Valley Race 4 No. 1). He also has some good chances tomorrow at Doomben in Coworth Park (Race 1 No. 2) and Big Decision (Race 7 No. 1).
Moonee Valley
*** As of 8am this morning the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy evening. ***
Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee : There have been seven runnings of this race since it went from 1000m to 1200m and five favourites have won. Four of those paid $2 or less. Mick Price and Craig Newitt combined to win this race last year with Samaready.
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead at his leisure with Lankan Rupee getting a lovely trail. Angelic Light either stalks him or goes to the one-one. Rebel Dane and Unpretentious to settle back in the field.
In racebook order because there's only five of them:
Buffering will probably have to work to cross Lankan Rupee because I can't see Craig Newitt giving him the lead too easily. He has a great fresh record (9:6-1-1) but his last two first-up runs have resulted in defeat. If he's given a cosy ride in front he may be able to kick away from them on the turn and hold on. I've just got a feeling though that he will need the run despite two impressive jump-out wins in preparation for this.
Lankan Rupee was beaten as an odss-on favourite first-up but if he was going to be vulnerable at any time this prep that was the day. He hadn't raced for nearly five months, 1000m is short of his best, he drew wide and got caught in a speed battle too. He was a sitting shot to be run down but he fought it out all the way to the line. He can atone here.
Rebel Dane split Lankan Rupee and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick in April (below) and has been given seven weeks to freshen up for this after a sound first-up third when beaten less than half a length by Sweet Idea and Messene in the G2 Missile Stakes. His fresh record is good (5:3-1-1) and he was an unlucky one length fifth behind Buffering at this course and distance in last year's G1 Manikato Stakes. Capable on his day.
Unpretentious. Only go at this track and distance was a narrow, fast finishing third to Spirit of Boom and Fontelina in the G1 William Reid Stakes in March. A talented gelding but he faces some pretty stiff opposition here.
Angelic Light has arguably the best record here at the Moonee Valley 1200m with two wins and a second from just the three attempts. The worry is her worst run last time in was third-up when she was beaten three and a half lengths in a Listed race down the Flemington straight in March.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead at his leisure with Lankan Rupee getting a lovely trail. Angelic Light either stalks him or goes to the one-one. Rebel Dane and Unpretentious to settle back in the field.
In racebook order because there's only five of them:
Buffering will probably have to work to cross Lankan Rupee because I can't see Craig Newitt giving him the lead too easily. He has a great fresh record (9:6-1-1) but his last two first-up runs have resulted in defeat. If he's given a cosy ride in front he may be able to kick away from them on the turn and hold on. I've just got a feeling though that he will need the run despite two impressive jump-out wins in preparation for this.
Lankan Rupee was beaten as an odss-on favourite first-up but if he was going to be vulnerable at any time this prep that was the day. He hadn't raced for nearly five months, 1000m is short of his best, he drew wide and got caught in a speed battle too. He was a sitting shot to be run down but he fought it out all the way to the line. He can atone here.
Rebel Dane split Lankan Rupee and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick in April (below) and has been given seven weeks to freshen up for this after a sound first-up third when beaten less than half a length by Sweet Idea and Messene in the G2 Missile Stakes. His fresh record is good (5:3-1-1) and he was an unlucky one length fifth behind Buffering at this course and distance in last year's G1 Manikato Stakes. Capable on his day.
Unpretentious. Only go at this track and distance was a narrow, fast finishing third to Spirit of Boom and Fontelina in the G1 William Reid Stakes in March. A talented gelding but he faces some pretty stiff opposition here.
Angelic Light has arguably the best record here at the Moonee Valley 1200m with two wins and a second from just the three attempts. The worry is her worst run last time in was third-up when she was beaten three and a half lengths in a Listed race down the Flemington straight in March.
Locky's Selections
2 Lankan Rupee
1 Buffering
3 Rebel Dane
5 Angelic Light
Refer (Sandown Race 7 No. 10) was only four lengths behind Guelph in the G1 Flight Stakes last Spring (as a maiden!) and followed that with a two length third to Arabian Gold in the Listed Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup Day. Broke her duck with an emphatic four and a half length first-up win at Geelong. Granted that was a maiden for fillies and mares but this doesn't look much harder. Opened at $4.00.
Mourinho (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 5) is a bit of a specialist here with with three wins from three goes at the 2040m and an overall track record of 9:4-2-0. His two runs this prep (both here) have been super and he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights from The Cleaner who has to be suspect at the trip. Opened $5.50.
Looks Like The Cat (Caulfield Race 6 No. 8) was outstanding fresh in the G2 Danehill Stakes a fortnight ago and the step-up to 1400m now looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. He's my early Guineas-Derby horse so I'll be sticking with him here. Opened $3.50.
1 Buffering
3 Rebel Dane
5 Angelic Light
Caulfield
*** As of 11am today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a warm, windy, sunny afternoon. ***
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Cluster or Trust In A Gust : Looking at the last eight runnings six winners have been 4-y-o's and six have carried 54kg or less. Six were male and seven paid single figure odds and six had placed at their last start.
"The Speed Map" says - They rarely go slow in 1400m G1 handicaps. Sweet Idea to lead Sistine Demon. I can't imagine A Time For Julia being too far away either given her good draw. Ditto Dissident. Trust In A Gust should be up there too and I expect Alma's Fury will look to go forward from the horror draw. Could be a swoopers race.
Sweet Idea is super consistent with four wins and two seconds from her last eight outings. Her two seconds were to Steps in Time in the G1 Coolmore Stakes and Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes and her two failures were on affected ground so it may pay to overlook them. She's been well tried in early markets.
Dissident has been fantastic in two runs back this campaign with back-to-back G1 victories in the Memsie Stakes (below) and the Makybe Diva Stakes. He'll have to break all sorts of records to win this however with the 58kg because the only winner in recent times to carry more was the great Testa Rossa (58.5kg). He was also a 4-y-o but had won the race the previous year as a 3-y-o. I'm not happy about the drop back from 1600m to 1400m either but he is too good to dismiss entirely.
Cluster is finally starting to live up to the promise he displayed as a young horse. Long time followers of this blog will know that I was a huge fan and it's only now that I've dropped off and he doesn't have to carry me that he's finally started winning. Typical. Three wins from his last four and the prospect of a good tempo point to him being a strong chance.
Trust in a Gust is hard to knock. His last two preparations have yielded eight wins and three seconds from 13 starts. Another who has been the subject of some support in early betting but he meets Atlante 2.5kg worse off than the day he lost to him at Moonee Valley two starts back.
Speediness proved he is up to this level when he all but won the G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill in March (below) when just nabbed by overseas raider Gordon Lord Byron. Second-up last preperation he was second beaten a length and a half by super mare Appearance in the G2 Apollo Stakes over this distance. Did enough first-up to show he's on track for a nice campaign but I would prefer to see him over a mile at this stage of his career.
A Time For Julia has appeared to have every chance at her two runs this time in but hasn't been able to get the chocolates. This is much harder too but she is honest and will put herself into the race from the good barrier. The drop to 52kg is a big help too. But she'll need it because she is leaving fillies and mares grade behind and taking on the big boys.
Sistine Demon had a great prep the last time he was in work with 11 starts for seven wins (including five on the trot) and two placings. His return was great in the G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality where he sat up on a hot speed down the Flemington straight and still managed to hang on for a three length fifth in an unsuitably short race after understandably running out of condition late. He's unbeaten in five goes at 1400m and two goes at this circuit. The concern is his missed a place in two of three second-up runs.
Double figures the rest of them but there are still other chances with Bull Point (not far away from Cluster last time), Atlante (first-up run was super) and Late Charge (unbeaten this time in). In fact you could probably make a case for all of them. But I have to pick a Top Four. So here goes.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - They rarely go slow in 1400m G1 handicaps. Sweet Idea to lead Sistine Demon. I can't imagine A Time For Julia being too far away either given her good draw. Ditto Dissident. Trust In A Gust should be up there too and I expect Alma's Fury will look to go forward from the horror draw. Could be a swoopers race.
Sweet Idea is super consistent with four wins and two seconds from her last eight outings. Her two seconds were to Steps in Time in the G1 Coolmore Stakes and Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes and her two failures were on affected ground so it may pay to overlook them. She's been well tried in early markets.
Cluster is finally starting to live up to the promise he displayed as a young horse. Long time followers of this blog will know that I was a huge fan and it's only now that I've dropped off and he doesn't have to carry me that he's finally started winning. Typical. Three wins from his last four and the prospect of a good tempo point to him being a strong chance.
Trust in a Gust is hard to knock. His last two preparations have yielded eight wins and three seconds from 13 starts. Another who has been the subject of some support in early betting but he meets Atlante 2.5kg worse off than the day he lost to him at Moonee Valley two starts back.
Speediness proved he is up to this level when he all but won the G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill in March (below) when just nabbed by overseas raider Gordon Lord Byron. Second-up last preperation he was second beaten a length and a half by super mare Appearance in the G2 Apollo Stakes over this distance. Did enough first-up to show he's on track for a nice campaign but I would prefer to see him over a mile at this stage of his career.
A Time For Julia has appeared to have every chance at her two runs this time in but hasn't been able to get the chocolates. This is much harder too but she is honest and will put herself into the race from the good barrier. The drop to 52kg is a big help too. But she'll need it because she is leaving fillies and mares grade behind and taking on the big boys.
Sistine Demon had a great prep the last time he was in work with 11 starts for seven wins (including five on the trot) and two placings. His return was great in the G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality where he sat up on a hot speed down the Flemington straight and still managed to hang on for a three length fifth in an unsuitably short race after understandably running out of condition late. He's unbeaten in five goes at 1400m and two goes at this circuit. The concern is his missed a place in two of three second-up runs.
Double figures the rest of them but there are still other chances with Bull Point (not far away from Cluster last time), Atlante (first-up run was super) and Late Charge (unbeaten this time in). In fact you could probably make a case for all of them. But I have to pick a Top Four. So here goes.
Locky's Selections
7 Cluster
11 Bull Point
6 Atlante
1 Dissident
11 Bull Point
6 Atlante
1 Dissident
Other bets
Refer (Sandown Race 7 No. 10) was only four lengths behind Guelph in the G1 Flight Stakes last Spring (as a maiden!) and followed that with a two length third to Arabian Gold in the Listed Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup Day. Broke her duck with an emphatic four and a half length first-up win at Geelong. Granted that was a maiden for fillies and mares but this doesn't look much harder. Opened at $4.00.
Mourinho (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 5) is a bit of a specialist here with with three wins from three goes at the 2040m and an overall track record of 9:4-2-0. His two runs this prep (both here) have been super and he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights from The Cleaner who has to be suspect at the trip. Opened $5.50.
Looks Like The Cat (Caulfield Race 6 No. 8) was outstanding fresh in the G2 Danehill Stakes a fortnight ago and the step-up to 1400m now looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. He's my early Guineas-Derby horse so I'll be sticking with him here. Opened $3.50.
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